I always find that when I think it's a bluff, it's really not. When I think it''s for real, he always turns back around and goes Venice-Trieste and Piedmont-Tyrolia.

If he's in Tyrrhenian sea, I would double back, unless he's a crafty one who's expecting me to do that and forfeit my build. Also, if Austria decides to open communication with something along the lines of "I think he's after me" it's a trap, they're working together. Basically, if I hear he's after me around the board I'll leave it open, and if I hear it's a ploy to catch Austria off-guard I'll double-back. Never trust the general feel of what people are telling you, it's always the opposite of what happens. Unless I hear it from Russia, because he has nothing to gain from this situation.

Interesting take dD. I tend to stay in Spain. I believe that if I make an error, then it doesn't matter which way I go, I simply gain 1 center from Portugal. However, if I remain in Spain and I guess right, then I keep the build.

I also have the opposite belief of dD. If I hear around the board that Italy's moving against me, then he probably is. I tend to communicate really well with people and can tell when I'm being lied to long before the lie takes shape.

I think it does matter--If you remain in Spain and Italy takes Marseilles, then your loss of Marseilles cancels out your gain of 1 center from Portugal. But like acmac, I've been burned both ways--stay OR block. Of course it's nice to have an army in Burgundy to block with, but then you run the risk of making an immediate enemy of Germany. I've had that happen too. lol

I think if Italy also moves to Pie and Tyr then you have to move Spain back to Mar. That doesn't mean you lose Spain though. If Italy is coming west then he almost certainly has an agreement with Austria. As France I would tell Austria that I believe Italy to be bluffing and am holding in Spain (however still order Spa - Mar). With any luck Austria relays this information to Italy, who subsequently moves Pie -> Mar thinking he'll sneak in. This move then bounces, you build a fleet in Mar and tell Italy to jog on.