@Putin

A perfectly fair question.

The Euro has always been very much a "top down" project to most Europeans. There was no broad popular movement to want it, the people we elected and who are supposed to be smarter than the rest of us designed it, and given that they're responsible for a period of peace and relative prosperity in Europe, and also the fact that among the different parties there was a broad consensus that it should be introduced, nobody bothered to mount any anti-movement.

The project turned out differently than expected, but most countries feel that it's no so much introducing their own currency again that could give trouble (many do though) but it's the hypothetical transitionary period in which the decision to leave the Euro is taken until the moment that the old local currency is re-introduced that frightens most people. And again, mainstream parties simply don't take this position; the people who want to bring back old currencies are often extremists and amateurs.

That's why, in principle, many Europeans are sort of dreaming away by the thought that they could pay in their own money again and don't have to worry about bail-outs, but in practice, electoral results such as the one in Germany won't reflect that.

It's too bad the FDP looks almost certain to be put out of the Bundestag. Even though the Germans seem to have given Merkel a majority it's hardly a good sign for the country that a liberal party can't meet the 5% threshold but what is basically just the old SED can.

Even in times of hardship the good memories can be very persistent...

A silver lining is that the vast majority of die Linke supporters are old enough to have been adults while the DDR existed. People who were young then and youth today simply aren't drawn to communism like people who spent their formative years under that system are. Their continued relevance is probably only temporary, since these voters are rocketing towards old age. I mean, if you were 30 in 1989 you're 54 now.

'Are there any Europeans on webdiplomacy who aren't against the common currency?'

i'm not against it. I'm also not against regional/national currencies, or dual currencies.

Cuba operates under a dual currency system, so there is at least an proof of concept in a modern context. Living in Bristol, i found the local Bristol pound to be a very interesting idea.

No serious politician would talk about leaving the Euro for fear of the massive impact it would have on their own economy, just the idea that it was likely could shake the markets and lose people jobs.

In reality, it is business owners who care the most about the currency - i'm sure many worried about introducing the new currency, but the opportunity of opening up new markets was rather tempting, and worth the risk. The risk of instability rising from leaving the currency union would have little to offset it, smaller market, more friction and uncertainty in trade, along with inflation worries.

Germany could leave without the new Deutsche Mark suffering too much, and allow the Euro to inflate, but then they'd be losing out on the value of all the debts they are owed. While losing competitive advantage against all of their neighbours and main trading partners. So they're stuck bailing out anyone who could pull the whole thing down. (and in principle, i'm not against wealth transfer...)

Personally, I don't really care. And most europeans, if given a vote, might prefer their own currencies, but those who have bought in to the Euro are not all that upset about it.

Regardless this doesn't look like it's going to be a big change for European politics...

@ Orathaic

Do you use Bristol pounds? I am a fairly regular visitor to the city and I've yet to see one. Although admittedly the last few visits were largely to take the other half Grommit hunting.

"Even though the Germans seem to have given Merkel a majority it's hardly a good sign for the country that a liberal party can't meet the 5% threshold but what is basically just the old SED can."

The CDU-FDP alliance was not working. The FDP was not flexible enough and was too ideological. The CDU is closer in orientation to the SPD at this point, and their alliance will probably be more successful. Die Linke is a union of West & East German Social Democrats. Some of the East German members were members of the SED at one point, but to say that the party is the same is not accurate. It's like saying the Hungarian Socialist Party is the same as the former MSzMP).

I don't even think leaving the euro is legal. There's no provision for leaving the currency in any treaty. At the very least, every single contract signed with the understanding that payment would be made in euros would be subject to a lawsuit. Since the new currency would likely be devalued, in order to protect it the withdrawing member would need to implement strict capital controls, which are also illegal. I really do not think withdrawing from the currency is possible unless it involves a total withdrawal from the union itself, and even that is subject to EU approval.

Why not break that law?

@Octavious, no, i never did get around to investing, and then left bristol... a tale of woe for another time.

@Putin, unlike the American constitution, everything in the EU is still up for negotiation.

Because a small country that doesn't abide by its treaty obligations is likely to have a hard time getting any kind of reciprocal respect for agreements and laws that they find benefit them.

@ Putin: "I don't even think leaving the euro is legal."

You're right that the treaty doesn't mention secession at all. Surely that means the opposite of your conclusion: in other words, it could be argued that leaving the Euro is *not* prohibited? The treaty doesn't explicitly say that once a country joins the Eurozone, it cannot leave...

Here is one viewpoint from a legal expert:

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2262873

(A legal expert in Texas, of all places, but a legal expert nonetheless...)

Die Linke is hardly just a fuzzy social democratic party like the SPD. It is a hard-left group of barely crypto-commies who have been investigated under Germany's anti-extremist laws. It's obviously not exactly the same as the SED, but the fact that it allows these people in says a lot about who these people really are. So does the fact that they were the only ones to oppose the true hero Joachim Gauck for president.

To say the CDU-FDP government isn't working rather flies in the face of Germany's continued economic growth while the rest of Europe sputters. But that's not even my point. I just think it's too bad that the only liberal party in Germany is almost certainly going to be kicked out of the Bundestag. Such views deserve a voice, if not in government then at least in the body politic. So would a left party not riddled with unreconstructed East German authoritarians.

@Putin, who said anything about the legal obligations to the treaty? You state that you want to leave, and then negotiate the terms, and everyone signs a new treaty...

Of course that doesn't mean the negotiations will go easily... but just that legality isn't a problem.

"The treaty doesn't explicitly say that once a country joins the Eurozone, it cannot leave..."

They can leave the Eurozone. But there is no provision for leaving the monetary union. They can leave the zone but they need to give two years notice before the withdrawal can take effect, and the terms of withdrawal are subject to majority approval by the EU.

"
To say the CDU-FDP government isn't working rather flies in the face of Germany's continued economic growth while the rest of Europe sputters. But that's not even my point."

Nor was it mine. My point was rather that the coalition partners do not partner well, ideologically, and association with the FDP has cost Merkel control of the Bundesrat. If the CDU-FDP coalition worked so well then the FDP wouldn't be finding themselves out of the Bundestag. That's sort of self-evident.

" I just think it's too bad that the only liberal party in Germany is almost certainly going to be kicked out of the Bundestag. "

Anglo-Saxon style liberal parties are well out of the mainstream of German politics, where there is a consensus commitment to upholding social market economy.

"Die Linke is hardly just a fuzzy social democratic party like the SPD. It is a hard-left group of barely crypto-commies who have been investigated under Germany's anti-extremist laws."

SPD isn't much of a social democratic party. It's a social democratic party in the way that the British Labour Party is (not at all) - since Gerhard Schroeder they've abandoned any kind of strong commitment to the social market economy. They're a centrist party that has by and large supported Merkel's austerity policies.

It is with considerable irony that you mention the spying by the intelligence services of members of parliament, which never had parliamentary approval, while also criticizing members of Die Linke for being "unreconstructed authoritarians", and complaining about the death of liberalism in Germany. If it's liberalism you're mourning, it's not of the constitutional variety. Sentiments which were considered "extremist" by the intelligence services included "planning to build a caring society beyond capitalism". Nor are the party movements listed by the intelligence services as "extremist" Marxist-Leninist in orientation, by any stretch. Anybody who reads the platforms of the "Anticapitalist Left" or "Socialist Left" can see this.

"So does the fact that they were the only ones to oppose the true hero Joachim Gauck for president."

Are you reading straight from the English wikipedia page?

I fail to see how opposing Gauck makes Die Linke extremist or worthy of domestic espionage. Kind of odd to suggest that a party must vote for a particular candidate or else they aren't upholding democracy.

"association with the FDP has cost Merkel control of the Bundesrat."

Um, it's still possible she could win an outright majority. And even if not, the CDU's seats in the Bundesrat and share of the popular vote have both gone up relative to 2009. Hard to see how the coalition was damaging to Merkel at all. A big part of the FDP's collapse has been that Merkel is just so powerful and popular that they were unable to get much of their program through, so many of their voters seem to have just jumped over to Mutti and be on the winning side outright.

"SPD isn't much of a social democratic party. It's a social democratic party in the way that the British Labour Party is (not at all) - since Gerhard Schroeder they've abandoned any kind of strong commitment to the social market economy. They're a centrist party that has by and large supported Merkel's austerity policies."

The SDP and CDU being similar is nothing new. But it takes real Judean People's Front/People's Front of Judea tunnel-vision view to say the SDP isn't a social democratic party. They're the type species of European social democratic parties.

I didn't bring up spying. You're pushing an open door though if you're saying German speech laws are too strict. But then, you only want communist extremist speech protected, while I would want all speech of all kinds.


"I fail to see how opposing Gauck makes Die Linke extremist or worthy of domestic espionage. Kind of odd to suggest that a party must vote for a particular candidate or else they aren't upholding democracy."

I happen to have a degree in German, so no I'm not reading from Wikipedia. And die Linke's opposition to him is a worthy barometer of their extremeism since literally every other party in Germany supported him, but die Linke didn't. Why? Because the old communists in that party couldn't support a man who was a political activist against the DDR and then ran the government department releasing Stasi files. But why mention who Gauck is and why die Linke opposed him when it's inconvenient for you, Putin33?

"Um, it's still possible she could win an outright majority. And even if not, the CDU's seats in the Bundesrat and share of the popular vote have both gone up relative to 2009. Hard to see how the coalition was damaging to Merkel at all. A big part of the FDP's collapse has been that Merkel is just so powerful and popular that they were unable to get much of their program through, so many of their voters seem to have just jumped over to Mutti and be on the winning side outright."

You have a degree in German. So you should know that the Bundesrat is the Upper House of the German parliament, which the opposition has controlled since the election in Lower Saxony. And yes association with the FDP did cost her that election in Lower Saxony, since FDP supporters wanted to ensure that the FDP met the minimum threshold despite the close polls, tilting the balance to the opposition.

http://en.mercopress.com/2013/01/22/merkel-loses-lower-saxony-eight-months-ahead-of-the-big-election-and-despite-her-popularity

The unpopularity of the FDP also cost her votes, since some CDU supporters abstained in that election rather than support the coalition. The mainstream CDU were uncomfortable with the FDP's euroskeptic-ish hardline views. The FDP didn't help itself by constantly having leadership turnover and internal divisions about the extent to which they should 'compromise' in order to go along with the CDU.

That was an error on my part. I thought you were talking about how she would have lost control of the Bundestag now since she had lost the CDU's obvious coalition partner. But why even talk about a different election than the one happening now? That just confuses the issue. Anyway, if the FDP has cost her votes this time when she may well be on path to a majority then we might as well just make her Kaiserin and be done with it.


But maybe address the real points I was making? Too much to ask?

"I didn't bring up spying."

Yes, actually you did. The investigation you're talking about was surveillance by the intelligence services for alleged extremist activities. That's spying, and was roundly condemned as spying by many in the German parliament.

"But it takes real Judean People's Front/People's Front of Judea tunnel-vision view to say the SDP isn't a social democratic party."

Am I also supposed to suggest that New Labour and Tony Blair's policies are social democratic because he was a member of the Labour Party? Anybody looking at Gerhard Schroeder's reforms cannot look at that and say this fits with any meaningful definition of social democracy. This is a party which in the 1960s was avowedly Marxist, and in the 2000s is supporting liberal welfare & labor reforms and in the 2010s is supporting austerity. That's a significant shift.

"Because the old communists in that party couldn't support a man who was a political activist against the DDR and then ran the government department releasing Stasi files."

Yes, it's not illogical for a party whose members have been continually attacked and investigated (and had their careers threatened or even ruined) by Gauck in the period after reunification would oppose such a man for President. Especially since he also supports Germany's participation in the Afghanistan war and generally has been a very political President, when the post is supposed to be non-partisan.

If they worked for or with the Stasi their careers deserved to be ruined.

"But why even talk about a different election than the one happening now? That just confuses the issue. "

No it doesn't, if the issue was the effectiveness of the alliance. If the alliance cost her control of the upper house, and has diminished popularity that might even be higher, then how is the alliance the optimal alliance for Merkel or Germany?

"Anyway, if the FDP has cost her votes this time when she may well be on path to a majority then we might as well just make her Kaiserin and be done with it.


But maybe address the real points I was making? Too much to ask?"

I addressed them. I would appreciate it if the unprovoked hostility would cease, if substantive point-making is your goal.

"If they worked for or with the Stasi their careers deserved to be ruined."

And if they didn't but had their careers ruined by him anyway due to overzealous investigation, what then? Should the people who were ruined should then proceed to go ahead and vote for the man who is only popular because he ruined them? How does that make sense? Should the filmmakers who were blacklisted have supported McCarthy?

No, I won't fall for it.

My point was that the party could reasonably be seen as out of the mainstream because it was the only one which did not support Gauck. I'm not talking about individuals who may have unjustly been caught up in the post-Stasi investigations (a scenario which, by the way, happens in every investigation and is not somehow unique to Gauck and the opening of Stasi records). I'm talking about the party as a whole, which unquestionably holds unreconstructed East German communists in its ranks, and by tolerating them shows that it is an extremist party.

But why pass up a good chance to wax on McCarthyism and display solidarity with your leftist authoritarian buddies?

"My point was that the party could reasonably be seen as out of the mainstream because it was the only one which did not support Gauck."

No, you didn't just say they were out of the mainstream. You said they were extremist. My point was opposition to Gauck is not evidence of extremism, and that the party had a lot of valid reasons for not supporting Gauck. Gauck's election was not a referendum on being an extremist party. If you had simply said they were not mainstream, I would agree with you. Neither is the FDP. Clearly the latter more so than the former. But you've said they are extremist and justifiably surveilled by the state intelligence services for their supposed extremism, and one of the bases for that was their opposition to Gauck.

"I'm talking about the party as a whole, which unquestionably holds unreconstructed East German communists in its ranks, and by tolerating them shows that it is an extremist party. "

Whether they're an extremist party has nothing to do with their lack of support for Gauck. And you've offered no proof of any "unreconstructed East German communists", the only proof is that they were spied on by German intelligence services and opposed Gauck.

"But why pass up a good chance to wax on McCarthyism and display solidarity with your leftist authoritarian buddies?"

Anybody following this exchange knows that my point was people whose careers were ruined by a man should not be expected to vote in support of him. It's a basic enough point and should be pretty obvious. It has nothing to with "waxing on McCarthyism" or "displaying solidarity", it has to do with it Die Linke's support for Gauck making no sense whatsoever as a political position.

(Angie! Angie! Angie! Angie!)

*slips away quietly*