This game was always going to be the wild card for me, and it turns out it was the same for everyone else as well. Depending on the outcome of this game, any one of four players could have made the second round - myself, Nigee, TMOW, or jimgov all had a shot - a solo would have propelled anybody else past me into the next round, while a draw that did not include myself would have sent with Nigee or TMOW to the second round. Stakes were high, especially when this game became the last one going in the group.

From the start, this game was my best chance of a solo, but I bungled my attack on England so badly that he became a thorn in my side for the entire game. I was fortunate to start off with three builds as France after England bounced Germany in Holland. I grabbed Tunis fairly easily, but unfortunately, my stab of England had counted on Germany holding ground in Scandinavia, which didn't happen, so England went +1 the same turn I took Liverpool. Mistake #1.

Mistake #2 came in the south. Because of my poorly timed stab of England, I was faced with a bigger threat in the north, so I had to use my two builds in 1903 to build two fleets, leaving me woefully short of armies - I had two to hold off a potential German stab, with one in Italy to clean up Rome and Naples. I was reasonably afraid that if I kept my army in Tuscany to hit Rome, Austria would slip through Piedmont and Germany would seize the opportunity and attack me, seeing as I'd made an enemy of England, I didn't want the two of them to take advantage of such an opportunity. So I ended up leaving the army in Piedmont to guard my southern centers, which killed my momentum in Italy and effectively halted my progress in the Med.

England continued to pester me for the rest of the game, which wreaked havoc on my German offensive in 1909. Germany and I screwed around long enough to allow Turkey to dominate Austria and Russia, at which point the game reached a critical point - how much do we want to risk cutting the draw? Knowing I had a place in the second round assured so long as there wasn't a solo and I was in the draw, I was hesitant to overextend myself, particularly when it came to killing England. I made the decision to abandon Tunis early enough to pull back to the MAO and make my stand on Spain. At this point (S1915) Turkey went too conservative and didn't try for Tunis, which left me enough breathing room to grab Liverpool (which I still bungled) and not have to disband any fleets.

I had a bit of a scare when Russia decided to NMR in 1915, but luckily Germany had enough armies to cover Warsaw. By that point, though, Warsaw was irrelevant, as I had secured Spain with a fleet in Portugal.

A few observations:

My mistakes in this game really cost me a better showing. Italy should never have stayed alive for as long as he did. The same went for England. I forgot to keep my attacks in scope, which cost me a lot of momentum.

Toward the end of this game, everyone became more cautious, and knowing that this was the final game that would decide the last spot (or two, in our case) in the second round, I wasn't surprised. I was confident that I could stalemate Turkey, but the wild card was Russia, and his grip in the east seemed a bit tenuous for a turn or two.