F 1904

I saw a lot that I liked this turn and very little that I didn't like. I'd call that progress. Some say you lot are starting to get the hang of this game!

Without further ado, lets go to the rankings with included commentary on this turn's positives and negatives.

1. ENGLAND - Without a doubt, you're the top power this year and your two builds are huge. But, I do have a few criticisms of your moves this turn. I'll start with NTH - Den. Now, this was always going to bounce and I can't imagine any scenario where Germany does not cover Denmark this turn. A better alternative would have been to send NTH - Hol. This would result in one of two outcomes: 1. You get Holland, or, 2. You bounce (as would have been the case) and force a disband of that retreating Belgian army. However, given the lack of that unit in Holland right now, it would enable you to easily convoy using NTH next turn to get another army onto the continent. My point here is that you don't always need to follow through with the obvious move simply because you feel that it is "expected" of you. Another good example of such expectations is the Black Sea bounce between Turkey and Russia. Skipping this bounce and sending the Turkish fleet to Con and then AEG can do wonders to deter an Italian attack.

Other than that, your big concern this next year should be Russia, not Germany. In all likelihood, you are going to lose St. Pete, but I think it can be turned into a positive outcome because that fleet has been a roadblock for you for what's essentially the entire game now. Getting the fleet out of the way can hopefully gain you some flexibility in the north. You've got two builds, so this should be your opportunity to pounce on Sweden and Denmark this year.

2. RUSSIA - Yes, Russia is back from the dead and is mounting a roaring comeback with the German threat gone. Note to England - every action has an equal and not always positive reaction. In this case, your German stab has led to a Russian resurgence. Russia is faced with a minor dilemma this turn - join forces with Germany to drive back the British invasion, much like the Soviets banning the Beatles, or join the melee in Germany and pick up a few easy builds, while simultaneously setting up your side of the stalemate. I personally don't think this is a difficult decision at all and I'll refrain from saying any more that could influence the outcome, but Russia is going to be a major player in this game in upcoming years.

3. TURKEY - You picked up a much needed build this year, which will help you tremendously. Now, the only question is whether to build a fleet or an army. Do you build another army and count on Russia letting you into Trieste? Do you build the fleet in Smyrna? Do you retreat to the Adriatic or disband and build one of each? I have a sneaking suspicion that you're going to be breaking out very soon so long as you and Russia can remain on friendly terms. The Juggernaut can only survive so long in any game, and you two are reaching the point where you may start to step on each other's toes.

4. GERMANY - Like I mentioned in the commentary for England, you had a better than expected turn and one disband (Finland, presumably) isn't the end of the world. The wild card for you is Russia. Right now, you need him on your side if you have any chance of holding off England. Russia has the drop on St. Pete with his upcoming build, which can put up a significant roadblock to further English aspirations in Scandinavia. Leaving Sweden may just have won you an ally, although a build may have been just as nice? Big year for you coming up.

5. ITALY - Simple math dictates that its only a matter of time for you unless you and England can mobilize some kind of reinforcements to prop up the Ionian. You and Austria are fighting valiantly, but with Austria only down to two centers, it looks like your ally is going to wither and you're going to walk away empty handed with no centers to show from it, which is far from ideal. You might be able to hold off Turkey on the sea, but your dearth of armies is going to come back to haunt you.

6. AUSTRIA - You've survived on Italy's perhaps misguided generosity, but you've epitomized a "die another day" attitude that many top Diplomacy players can appreciate. Unfortunately, your day is rapidly approaching.

bump, I'll get a post out shortly.

Great lecture, 2ndWhite! Especially the point about Den/Hol is well taken, both Frenchie and I missed that completely. Even if Germany had kept Sweden, disbanding the Belgian army is extremely valuable, and with Kie/Mun occupied, Germany can't actually build. Nth-Hol would have been a much better move.

Also, a question for the mods: what do you think was Germany's best move this spring turn? ckroberts suggested Ber-Liv and Mun S Sil, but Germany decided to play a rather cautious move instead. Do you think it was best to attack Russia full force (hoping England doesn't stab), attack England (assuming the stab is coming anyway), or just stay put like Germany did in the game?

Bump

Another bump to keep this on the home page.

Sorry for the delay in getting to Fall 1904 grades. I want to second 2WL: we have a pretty decent group of players in this thing. That’s partly why the professors are being critical, in fact, which I hope everyone recognizes: just like in boxing, getting better at Diplomacy means getting beaten up a lot. We’re being as honest and as critical as possible because we want this promising group to become as good as they can, and that’s the fastest way we can do it.

ENGLAND: C
GERMANY: B+
RUSSIA: A

For England, I have very little to add to 2WL’s description; bouncing Holland would have been big. Well, one more thing, perhaps more for readers than our players: proactive diplomacy on England’s part might have made this go a little more smoothly. An offer to switch St P for Sweden a turn or two ago, to make peace so you could go somewhere else, probably would have been something Russia would have jumped on given his then-difficult situation. Heck, maybe Russia just goes for it if you say you’re more concerned about Germany/Italy and want peace. [My approach, as England talking to Russia, would probably have been: Look, I’m not going to pretend to be your best friend now, but I don’t want to see Germany grow fast any more than you do. What can we do to make sure that doesn’t happen? I think …] Now you’ve got a bit of a fight on your hands. It’s possible this particular Russia is one of those “once you stab me, we are enemies forever” players – we’ve all run into them – but likely this is a situation which could have gone a little better with more careful preparation.

A related question, which suggests maybe he did try my suggestion but it just didn’t work or wasn’t carried out correctly. What was Norway doing supporting GoB to Sweden? I suppose that it’s possible there was supposed to be a trade off before, and that’s why Sweden bounced in Ska, knowing that England would be moving there. But if that’s the case, why trust Russia next year? Why move to Ska at all if you’re going to have a peaceful border with Russia, one which cannot be broken by the German?

Germany and Russia (who I have put in the northern clump for the purposes of grading) played this just about perfectly. Not only is St P in trouble, but, England even has to worry about Norway. Likely the fleet in St P will end up supporting it, but that means a wasted fleet and two units covering one center/front. That’s bad for England and good for Russia. I like Russia’s move to Warsaw – trust, but verify. In partial answer to Bas’ question, if Germany had convoyed to Livonia in the spring, St P might have been Russian or German territory right now; Germany even could have stayed in Sweden in exchange for supporting Russia into St P. That’s not what I had in mind when I expected Germany to move there, but, pleasant surprises and all.

Not to repeat myself, but, Germany and England have some tactical decisions to make in the spring. Be sure to be thinking ahead. England should have moved to Holland because it would make German defenses much weaker a year later; what’s an analogous move this spring, that will have centers falling (or not!) next spring? Everyone in the north should be in heavy communication right now.

Russia has the luxury of decisions this phase: he can realistically attack any neighbor or focus on either theater and expect to make some gains. But where will be most beneficial for Russia?

This gets to something I sort of wanted to make into a full lecture but for now I will just squeeze in right here. In this case specifically: Russia, what kind of player are you? Are you willing to take big risks, or do you find it more comfortable to build a solid but slower foundation? Does playing for a win at all costs define your approach? How important is it to maintain a relationship to the end of the game? We’ve seen that England’s had a flexible approach to relationships so far, while Russia (that I can tell) has only made one major change of alliances so far, and that in response to another assault; similarly, Russia has played a workmanlike approach while England has taken big chances. Partly this is due to country, but it’s also likely related to playing style. There’s nothing wrong with any approach to Diplomacy if you enjoy it and you make it more likely that other players enjoy it. We can see that both approaches have, in this game, worked pretty well so far for both England and Russia. Now, what road Russia will take (and to my eye you’ve got several realistic options) in the next couple of turns really depends on what kind of player Russia is and wants to be.

ITALY: C-
TURKEY: B+
AUSTRIA: F

Italy keeping Austria alive is probably not worth the centers that could come out of Austria’s corpse, but, at least there’s the possibility of Austria doing a Screw You on his way out to make things tougher for Turkey. And Tunis likely means an Italian build before the full weight of Turkey/Russia hits (if it does). A valuable lesson from Italy’s situation is that everything on the board matters to everyone. Did Italy know about England’s stab? Since we all recognized the possibility, Italy should be pressing England non-stop to keep up the pressure on Russia, even if it meant letting Germany get a little bigger (related: you should be figuring out a way to DMZ everything around Iberia, since you’re both facing bigger problems in the east, or (probably less likely) turn around to make those units more valuable in an offensive capacity). Italy should also, obviously, be in contact with Russia this whole time.

Turkey is about to face another “centers vs. position” question, not to mention having to worry about a suddenly surging Russia. Turkey helped Russia out when the latter was ailing, but that doesn’t mean the relationship will hold. I’m interested in general to see how these relationships play out. The east has been a 2v2 (2v1.5) the whole game – the contrast with the west has been very interesting. Now that we’re practically down to three eastern contestants, will that dynamic change?

Sorry Austria, but your time has just about come. If Italy really wants to keep you in the game, you can survive another year or so, but, it’s getting hairy. Much like France, while I wouldn’t say Austria’s played a perfect game, it’s entirely possible to do most things right and still lose to a superior force. There have been some big tactical hiccups, but being outnumbered makes mistakes count more. One upside is that you often learn more as you go down fighting than you do in an unchallenged draw.

Sorry I've been quiet -- coaching a FIRST team is no joke. I'm waiting for some parts right now, so I'll type something up.

Bump.

Phase went through, good profs. Only two posts in the last week.

Spring 1905 brings us to a season with a couple of moves I found a little curious, so let’s chat.

ENGLAND: N/A
GERMANY: N/A

I think I get the thinking behind the move to Norway and out of St P; give Russia a home center back and have fleets ready for move on Germany. Maybe there’s even a deal in place to get Russian support into Denmark or to switch St P and Sweden, or even for Russia to get Denmark and so stay on good terms with England. But now Russia decides how much of a gain England makes this turn. Even in the case that there’s a plan to switch St P and Sweden, Russia can wreck that. From my perspective, it’s questionable because of the circumstances: Russia has the ability to choose where to go right now, and this gives Russia the option of securing his north and really putting England in a tough spot.

Roughly the same thing (the hypothetical switching of units and/or handover of St P) could have been accomplished by support holding Norway-St P this spring and moving out in the fall, when you’d be losing St P anyway to a committed Russian attack. Moving to Ska now makes Germany have to guess about Kiel supporting Denmark or Holland, which if Russia is neutral likely means losing one or the other. But that’s a big if, in my book. And even if England’s not in Ska, if English fleets are in Hel and NTH then Germany still has to guess about Denmark or Holland, although the odds would then be not so much in England’s favor. Not giving Russia the realistic option of attacking Norway maybe makes help into Denmark more appealing, so it might even out.

Another way to put all this: Tactically and purely in terms of England vs. Germany these are pretty good moves for England. But it’s not in a vacuum, and Russia’s resurgence makes me nervous for England. Russia doesn’t even have to do anything aggressive; he can demand precautionary bounces that will severely limit England’s offensive options.

I think I see how Germany’s bouncy thing in Holland and Ruhr works – in case of an Italian cut into Munich, however unlikely, since you can’t self-dislodge you can’t lose either Holland or Ruhr. Depending on what you think Italy is going to do with that army, an aggressive move while you still have a tiny advantage might have been a good idea. But really none of that matters. Germany is outnumbered by England, and solving that weakness will require a diplomatic solution. Either Russia helps out, or Russia doesn’t.

Incidentally, it’s this situation which has left me unable to provide a grade. Giving a grade means ranking the relative chances of one outcome or the other happening; doing that, I fear, would give away which outcome I think is most likely and/or desirable for the parties involved. Any grade could be wildly off, anyway, if England or Germany has built a firm new relationship with Russia.

RUSSIA: A-
AUSTRIA: C
ITALY: D+
TURKEY: C-

Austria is still in it and in a position to make relatively important moves. I think he could have been more useful in the Ionian, although this move might end up more fun and makes him a potential dance partner for either Turkey or Russia. Maybe he cares that this has seriously harmed Italy’s situation, but maybe not.

On the flip side, Italy has kept Austria alive too long. Up to this spring, protecting Trieste has been a good decision; it’s a valuable bargaining chip if Russia and/or Turkey seem open to negotiation, or a valuable if temporary roadblock against a hostile RT. But then Serbia fell. Better play by Russia and Turkey would have taken Trieste anyway. If they had, where would Austria have retreated? Hopefully not Venice, but if so, what could Italy have done about it? Better to have Austria retreat to Tyrolia or Albania and support back into Trieste in the fall.

And the Ionian! If Italy didn’t know Austria was moving to Eastern Med, as the failed support holds suggest, why not? This is a big breakdown in communications. As a result, Italy’s defenses have sprung a crucial leak that can only be covered for so long. If Italy and England had worked something out, things wouldn’t be quite so worrisome, but, here we are. This might be the impetus to work something out so that three very valuable units aren’t just hanging out in Iberia and Marseilles, but it might not be enough. Fortunately, the hint that Turkey and Russia aren't on the same page keeps things from looking disastrous.

I was a little surprised to see the move to Greece; Albania and Serbia (with the fleet already in the Adriatic) would have meant Turkey could have taken Trieste if not helping Russia to take it. An army in Greece is considerably less flexible, tactically, than Albania would be. The hold by Serbia is at least the second apparent breakdown in communication between Turkey and Russia. Are these simple mistakes, or is somebody setting up for an aggressive move against the other? We might look back on this as a crucial turning point of a turn.

Finally, we come to Russia. It is interesting to see Russia have so many viable options at this point, while everyone else seems to have so few. I don’t know if that’s luck or skillful play or both, but it’s certainly nice. We are about to hit the point, though, where Russia has to commit. I sort of wrote off Russia’s chances earlier, and I was mistaken about that. Russia is the power with the best position right now, and this season shows why: a series of moves that keep options open and leave Russia at an advantage against both rivals and allies.

Bump. Very good commentary from ck. Looking for other opinions before next phase turns

Bump. 3 hours to go. Any word of the other professors for the fall phase then?

A few quick thoughts:

Russia is still my dark horse this game.

Austria should not be alive.

Italy should not be sitting idly in Spain.

BABA BOOEY

Best lecture ever! :)

Phase went through.

Bump for an exciting turn.

Hoping to see some commentary tonight or this weekend from our esteemed profs

Autumn of 1905 was a really neat turn, so let’s think about it.

ENGLAND: D
GERMANY: C-

So, I thought Russia was going to stab England, and it went through about as well as it could have. But England is not bereft of opportunity here. While it would be nice if that retreating Norwegian fleet was an army headed to Finland, England can still match either (key word!) Germany or Russia at an advantage in the relevant theaters right now. England is finally getting some of those armies onto the continent which gives more options. The surplus of fleets and the stranded army means that the disband is not as painful as it otherwise might be, although a great deal of careful thought is necessary when considering that disband. But none of this can fully make up for a loss of a center and the specter of a German-Russian alliance. Also, after the previous few moves, it might be tough to make new friends.

One thing we should probably be clear about: when everyone was criticizing some of England’s earlier moves, it wasn’t because we thought such moves were putting England’s survival in mortal danger. It’s more an issue of giving up a possible solo shot or setting a rival up for one. To use an Olympics analogy, we’re not saying England can’t make it to the podium, but winning the gold is going to be a lot harder.

Germany goes down a center. But that’s about the best that could be hoped for, and Russia is indeed engaged; Germany has avoided a situation (an English build and no Russian help) which may have signaled elimination. Whether that is going to eventually put Germany in Russia’s sights or not is a question that can wait. I’m interested by the calculated risk to move Holland to Belgium. For the upcoming turn, again, strong diplomacy is the key here for Germany. Will Russia stay friendly? Is England open to making up? Any combination of alliances in the north is possible right now, which is very exciting.

What was gained with the bounce in Spain? I will consider that further, but, if England was planning a one-center stab of Italy, that’s very strange. No need to make new enemies.

Italy: C-
Austria: D-

Italy guessed correctly in the Mediterranean. But things are real tough up north. Venice will fall unless Turkey and Russia are about to have a for-real fight, which it looks like they are (but why take that risk?). If England insisted on the bounce I guess there’s possibly nothing you could do about it, but why would England insist on that? An Italian army in Piedmont means that Venice doesn’t fall, or at least it takes more work. The bounce is only a reasonable move, I think, if you have near-certainty that Russia and/or Turkey are about to stab the other, or a near-certainty that England is going to move to Spain. And if Turkey and Russia are about to fight, you want to be there to make sure you can get some of the spoils and be on the winning side. Fortunately, Tunis likes means that even if Russia and Turkey make up or somehow one of them ends up in Venice, Italy won’t be losing a unit.

Somehow Austria remains in class, squeezing in by the narrowest of margins. You know what might have worked better? Austria moving to the Ionian, with support from Naples. The Turkish fleet likely disbands to rebuild, given Russia’s potentially forthcoming stab. Even if not, a Turkish fleet in Apulia is not that much more dangerous than one in the Ionian. At least Austria still has the chance to screw things up for Turkey, if that’s what he wants. Plus, last turn told us there is something wrong with the Austro-Italian relationship, so maybe organizing such an effort would have been impossible.

RUSSIA: A
TURKEY: D-

The most telling move last spring, to my eye, was Russia’s move to Galicia. If I am Turkey, that would have set off alarm bells. I am surprised Turkey still decided to support Russia to Trieste; it is that single move which gets the grade this semester. Even without the bonus of a rogue Austrian fleet, Russia has Turkey in a risky guessing game about covering centers, plus two nearby builds. If Russia has done the groundwork and has Italy even just hesitant to attack, Turkey is in a risky position. Russia possibly loses a center this year, but there are so many strong options to pick new ones up and end up at the same SC count yet in much stronger position next year. Bravo to Russia on somehow getting Turkey to agree that a fair distribution of Austrian centers (in which I include Serbia) is three to Russia and one to Turkey.

I don’t want to sound melodramatic and say that suddenly Turkey is facing elimination, but things are potentially pretty bad. Just like in the north, it feels like any combination of alliances in the south is possible. Everyone needs to be lobbying heavily with everyone else right now.

Alright, this is why I'm a guest professor and not a full time one, sorry about not being able to keep up there.

This turn was extremely interesting. Obviously turns like this are shifting points in the game, so it's important for every player to reevaluate the board from the perspective of every obvious existing alliance.

Russia clearly stabbed Turkey for the top position on the board. Unfortunately for him he has no way of getting a build in StP anytime soon which is going to limit him to the south and makes him dependent on Germany's help in the west. This turn he has to figure out what Italy is going to do, and if Italy is open to an alliance. Italy's 3 bounces last turn are rather baffling and are going to require some diplomatic efforts to figure out. Then there is the E/G dynamic. Right now Germany and Russia seem allied, but Russia has to be quietly counting centers right now and realizing that his easy gains only get him to 16. If he is looking to solo the other two have to come from somewhere, which everyone else on the map knows full well. Then he has to look south. Turkey and Russia will be playing a massive guessing game that completely rests on two questions. What will the Austrian fleet in the Eastern Med do? And what will Italy's army sitting in Tyrolia do? The answer to those two questions will completely shape the moves of both Turkey and Russia. I won't even bother offering predictions on how that will go because the outcome completely depend on which player uses the information gained through diplomacy to outguess the other. Russia could end up with as good an outcome as 2 gained centers, including a Turkish home center, or as poor a result as a lost unit.

Turkey, most of what I mentioned in Russia's analysis covers yours. You need to figure out what Italy and Austria will be doing and then your main work is making moves that counter whatever Russia ends up doing.

@both of you, guessing games are my specialty, and I've lost about 10 of them out of dozens in all my games. I'm going to write up how I think everyone will move and then pm my analysis to another professor and explain it after next turn.

Italy, I'm really not sure what is going on with you. You seem a bit lost right now, last turn your units didn't really accomplish anything. All you did was defend your own centers. You should always have a plan on how you are going to gain your next supply center, even if it seems unlikely to happen soon. Do you have any type of plan to expand (note I'm talking about after you've retaken Tunis). Keep in mind that your unit in Tyrolia is one of the most valuable units on the board this turn, use it to your benefit.

Austria, I don't have much to say here, kudos to you for sticking in there. Just keep having fun until you're eliminated...or be the 3rd or 4th person to make a 17 center comeback to win the game ;)

England, that turn had some mistakes that gave more units to Russia then he should have been able to take. I'm assuming you and he had an agreement that he went back on. You're still in a good position, but it is disappointing to see your solo chance from several years ago has completely vanished. Consider your disband carefully, it can gain you diplomatic points if you make the right choice.

Germany, you got Russia on your side, that was pretty much the best turn you could have hoped for. I'd be interested in having you or your TA pm me explaining what your end game goal is at this point. I'm just curious if you're more concerned with a spot in the draw, not getting a defeat on your record, stopping a potential solo, etc.

The last comment I'll make is that this is one of the very very few times I could see a build deferral being a good choice.

I'll should be able to keep up with the game again. Any students and TA's, feel free to pm me with questions.

bump

The game has been paused until Mar. 1. One of the students had a week of international travel come up suddenly. During our 'week off', I'm looking forward to more commentary on the game thus far.

bump

Hello All,

I regret to inform you all that I have decided to retire from Diplomacy for the time being. I need to focus on my studies and apply for scholarships amongst other things that make my life very busy. Unfortunately, I can no longer set aside the time to play Diplomacy, something I have grown to love (maybe a little too much) in these past couple of months. I need to really buckle down and focus on things in my life and can't play this game to its fullest like you all deserve from an opponent. I wish the best of luck to all nations left standing, and best wishes on future campaigns. This is frenchie29, signing off. Good bye everybody.

That's unfortunate for the game, but I completely support your decision. Finding the right college and getting in is a big deal, and you shouldn't let diplomacy get in the way of that. Any idea where you're going to apply? I'd very much like to see you return to Webdip, you've been a good student and I was very impressed. I think with a bunch of practice, you could easily break top 100 and probably go a lot further. I'll write up some more detailed reflections tomorrow, if you'll be able to check the thread.

For the others, I just want to mention I'd be happy to continue my TA duties for a replacement England. In the unlikely event that we can't find anyone, I could also take over for Frenchie, but given his position I'm sure we'll be fine.

The game is unpaused. Anybody available to take over for England as a student? You'll, of course, have to stick with the game until it ends, which is likely another month or two.

I'm sorry, but I've paused the game again. I cannot let it continue without another England

My apologies goldfinger. I was responding to a scheduled vacation pause. We should indeed hang on until another student volunteers.

So, would anybody like to volunteer themselves to take over the English student's position?

What of the list of students who were unable to get into the game, and who may no longer be following the thread?