One of the big discussions before the player replacement was about what exactly England’s various moves signified. I don’t know if this year’s turns have really clarified any of that, since we have a new Germany and a set of moves that, being honest, I had a lot of trouble getting a handle on. This commentary is going to switch things up a little bit and look at grades in clumps. Hopefully that will allow me to (belatedly) answer dyager’s questions about a new player.
ENGLAND: D+
FRANCE: D
GERMANY: B+
To answer dyager’s first question, there are a lot of different ways to handle that. Let’s assume Germany has some damaging piece of information, say that one player had previously worked to harm an ally’s success by leaking information to an enemy. In that case, my immediate response (assuming you don’t just fall in love with the new player and want to work together) would be to go on the offensive. Ask an ally or two if some fabricated or partially-fabricated piece of information is true, and act mildly suspicious or even angrily insulted before you make up and affirm that, yes, I trust you as a partner in this effort, and oh by the way, what did Germany say about me? Ideally you can also do this indirectly, say, knowing that Russia and Turkey are communicating well, you pretend to get mad at Turkey, hoping it will get back to Russia and reinforce whatever you’re telling Russia. Especially for a player in a kind of difficult spot like Germany, this can create a sense that the new player is struggling for air and is already resorting to lies and half-truths. It can alter the dynamic of having a new player revealing potentially damaging information.
Anyway, this is the first turn where it looks, to me, like England is making significant errors. I assume: England talks to the new Germany, decides working together is better than the stab. Or, it never was a stab, and England commits to working with the new Germany. Maybe Germany provided some new and maybe even real information which damaged England’s relationship with Russia. Whatever the case, England has taken advantage of Russia’s weak northern position and done a one-center stab. But the effort is half-hearted and it sacrifices an ally who obviously had enough trust of England to leave the north open. Keeping the pressure on Germany, insisting Russia keep things DMZed in the north, and finishing off France would make more sense. Germany is in real bad shape and eventually Italy will do the hard work of opening up Paris for you. I guess there’s the possibility that England is trying to attack Germany and Russia at the same time, or that there was some kind of crazy misorder, but those would be even bigger mistakes.
Maybe England suddenly panicked about the Juggernaut? That’s the only thing I can figure.
I had a little trouble figuring out the move to Gascony, but I think I got it – it nearly guarantees getting both Brest and Paris, although at the risk of losing MAO and with the possibility of a hostile Germany throwing it off. Seems a little more difficult than necessary to me, though, and it risked (as we see now) losing Belgium, the giving up of which was a mistake.
France, if you have somehow made a deal with England/Germany to stay alive, and you’ll be keeping Spain and Paris, adding, Brest, at the cost of Marseilles, then I change your grade to an A+. Pretty unlikely though.
Germany’s move out of Holland and into Belgium makes me assume this was a planned alliance with England. I don’t know about the tactics of it (but why Burgundy to Belgium? What not Holland to Belgium and Burgundy to Munich, where if you get bounced you help your new English friend by forcing the retreating Italian army to disband?), but I like the diplomacy of it. Germany wasn’t a goner, but things looked bleak, and now, they don’t look quite as bleak.
RUSSIA: C-
TURKEY: A-
Maybe these grades will change after the fall, but, Russia has given Turkey the help and lost it himself. That wide open north finally came back to bite Russia, but all is not lost – near-guaranteed gains in the south will outweigh (in centers, though not dynamically) the loss of St P. Supporting Galicia in with Bohemia makes sense I guess in that it would have left Bohemia available for action, but it’s a support which can be easily cut by hostile neighbors. If I am Russia, I am telling Germany that I never had any bad intentions, I’m just worried about Austria, and anything I’ve agreed to do for England was just to keep that dishonest scoundrel from attacking me (and see what it got me!). The diplomatic failure of potential peace between Germany and England is a big blow to Russia, not right now but in the future. The upside is that it should take a while for the potential E/G to get going – plenty of time to get ready, both tactically and diplomatically.
Meanwhile, things are coming up roses for Turkey. The power dynamics of the RT have just changed drastically in Turkey’s favor. Biggest cause for concern is that Italy is likely to get two builds and England might be fading as a counter to Italian naval strength on the other side, but Turkey could be in the Ionian first and thus be in the slightly stronger position (worth risking it this turn?). How Turkey and Italy deal with each other, as both are finishing off weaker neighbors, might be one of the defining interactions of the rest of this game.
ITALY: B
AUSTRIA: D
Tough grade for Austria, due to tough situation. Barring diplomatic coups, Austria was almost certainly guaranteed to lose two centers this year. Russia could still make some tactical errors, but they’d have to be big ones. To me, trying to defend against both Turkey and Russia was probably a mistake – make one partner pick between sticking with the alliance or making real gains – but it’s also possible you just are facing a bigger combination of powers than your own. That might represent bad diplomacy or whatever, but it might just be bad luck. Something for France to consider, too: most of the time at Diplomacy, you lose, and that’s not necessarily a bad reflection on you.
Italy is the flip side of Turkey: stronger ally is suddenly in a rougher spot (though faraway England has less immediate impact on Italy than nearby Russia does on Turkey), about to finish off a weakened neighbor, setting up for a showdown for mastery of the Mediterranean basin. Turkey will be getting there first, but Italy has the small advantage of being able to use Austria as a junior partner. Downside is that Austria might be about to retreat, if Turkey takes risks and gets lucky, out of the Ionian, which might mean one build and a big headache instead of easy two.