Lecture 5 – Fall/Winter 1902
I’ll start by addressing some of the questions and discussions that have bounced around the thread since my last post. First, sorry about the length of the last one. I’ve been typing all my commentary into one document, and I carelessly pasted the entire document, including previous commentaries, into the thread instead of just the current commentary.
I really learned to play the online game at Bounced, where “partial press” meant that you could send press to any subset of the powers in the game (and the GM). It definitely changed certain subtle elements of the game. It was much easier to coordinate triple alliances, so I saw a lot more western triples (and other triples) than I see here. In some games, that could lead to a “care-bear” alliance sweeping the board and then drawing very early. However, it also made it much easier to stop solos, as the smaller powers could communicate clearly with much less effort than here. Each system has its advantages and disadvantages, but I think the fundamental principles of press remain the same and that the differences aren’t so great that good players cannot adjust and do well with either system.
uclabb asks about Germany stabbing England last spring. If I had been playing Germany, I would have pressed hard for Russia to move mos-stp in the spring while I moved hol-nth, bur-bel. In the fall, Russia could have taken Norway from Sweden while I convoyed from Denmark into Edinburgh, with the result being England reduced to two centers while Germany has an army on the island and control of the North Sea. There are, of course, a few tricky spots to navigate: Russia must be persuaded that this is his best plan, as he could easily mess everything up by telling England or by stabbing Germany for Denmark instead of taking Norway. I’m also not the biggest fan of convoying armies into England, as it simply takes too much time to get them there and then back one England is done. (I am, however, a fan of getting my allies to convoy armies into England, as it leaves them open for stabs while making it much harder for them to reconcile with England). However, if Germany had pulled this off, he would have had enough centers to spare the army, and possession of the North Sea would have put him in the driver’s seat in the west, while his proximity to the middle of the map allows him to quickly expand in any direction. From that position, as long as he can prevent a stop-the-leader alliance, he has several promising paths to a solo victory.
Having decided against that option, however, Germany became a bit more reliant on England. I’m not sure exactly what happened in the north this year. However, what Germany needed to happen was for him to tap Paris so that England could take Brest in exchange for English support into Sweden. He also should have told England that he was moving to North Sea and expecting a bounce. Because the Channel was busy supporting the army into Brest, London had nothing better to do than go to North Sea, and Germany allowing it to make it there may turn out to be a serious mistake. If Germany could have made that happen, and then combined it with the move east towards Russia, his position would still be admirable. However, that England chose not to support Germany into Sweden, while Germany was apparently expecting to take Sweden, as otherwise he would not have moved to Silesia, makes me think that this was not a miscommunication, but an intentional and somewhat subtle stab by England. The best part is that, if England decides he’d rather stick with Germany, he still can, most likely by offering support to Sweden or offering Germany Belgium. However, while in 1901 it looked like Germany was probably running the show in the west, England is now in control (as much as anybody can be this early in the game). Where England puts the new army this turn will play a large role in determining the direction of the north for the next year or two, and Germany, Russia, France, and Italy all should be lobbying hard for a move that’s beneficial to their position and strategy.
Italy and England can now decimate France without German help, and Germany is out of position to do, well, pretty much everything. French strategy must remain the same: turn his attackers against each other, and also point out potential gains and dangers in other places. For example, he needs to both work on pointing out to Italy the Austrian fleet in Ionian and its dangers (as well as the Turkish fleets that will be coming west) while also hedging his bets by convincing Austria AND Turkey to both be hostile towards Italy.
Unfortunately for Italy, the Austrian retreat to Ionian does pose some real problems. Does he press against France for hard-earned builds, or does he try to defend against Austria sneaking into his home centers? Both are risky. I’m a bit surprised that Austria finalized such a bold retreat so quickly. It’s not necessarily a bad move, if backed by the right diplomacy, but I’m not sure that such diplomacy was taking place before he went there. Rebuilding in Vienna would have been much safer, but could have led to a downward spiral of “safe” moves that still result in defeat by a numerically superior force. Being in Ionian definitely gives Austria more options than rebuilding in Vienna, and it will be interesting to see if he can make something out of it with Russia and Turkey bearing down on his home centers.
Moving further east, I really like Turkey’s position. He’d primed to control the Med and to break from the Balkans into the Austrian home centers, two important routes for Turkish expansion. Because he’s so far away from the center of the board, the challenge of playing Turkey is to translate the strong defensive position into a breakthrough either north through Russia, northwest through Austria, or east through the Ionian as early as possible, and then to convert a breakthrough in one of those areas into breakthroughs in the other. If Turkey can break out on one front, he’ll be a player in the mid-game and most likely end up in the draw. If he can break out on a second or third front, then he can start thinking about paths to a solo.
Finally, we have Russia. There are two ways to look at his precarious position in the north. If he can pull it off, most likely it is through brilliant diplomacy with England and well-placed trust. Leaving only the fleet in Sweden to hold the north should allow him to make quicker gains in the south. However, it’s a big gamble, as if England decides to move against Russia, there’s very little Russia can do about it, especially if England can convince Germany to continue attacking Russia. The EGR triple illustrates two principles. First, alliances are much more stable when built on mutual trust. They are even better when they reach a point of not requiring trust because a stab would be tactically impossible or strategically disastrous. Russia obviously trusts England a lot, and so far England has repaid that trust. However, England has also put himself in a position where he doesn’t need to trust Russia at all. England then has a choice: to stab devastatingly, or to continue being a good ally, possibly in order to set up an even better stab later, or simply because it’s nice to have a flank where there’s no chance of being attacked. This is one of my favorite strategies: get an ally to trust me more than he should, hold off on stabbing so that he trusts me even more, and then to stab devastingly, often for a win. The second principle, which I mentioned in an earlier lecture, is that whenever you’re in a triple alliance, you want to work to get the other two to both see you as their primary partner. Then, when they stab each other, you get to pick the winner. England has also done that well here, putting himself in a position where he can side with either Russia or Germany, and where each of them needs him much more than he needs them.
Some things to watch for this turn: where does England put his new army? How does the EGR triple finally shake out? What does Austria do with his fleet, and how does Italy react to the fleet? Can France hold off his invaders? Do England and Italy work together against France, or do they bump heads?