Me again ;)
Retreats were great, you both figured you are better off with disbanding rather than retreating. It was the good choice. But if you are better off with disband, then for someone it’s worse. Start from here with a little remark.
In my view, in every game there are two types of powers. One, that are big enough to have an agenda, how might choose who to ally with, and so on and there are the ones, who I would call the ‘triggers’. Triggers are those countries who have no choice what to move, hence they trigger the exact set of moves, why bigones dictate the general strategy and long-term dynamics.
This turn England and Turkey were the triggering countries.
England, I don’t like your set of moves. 1st, support holding Norway??? Seriously? What’s the point of that. You should have moved to Clyde (to prevent france moving away from Liverpool, also to take away future support from wales) or you should have moved to north sea and north sea to Denmark or Holland.
As I said I didn’t like the Germany retreat to London, so you should have let it there, make it France’s problem. “Help your enemy’s (France in this case) future enemy (Germany)” If Germany was in London now, then next turn France would attack it (as he will attack you) The difference is, if you had let him in London then you just made two of your enemies to fight.
Meanwhile if you had taken Denmark (helping Russia basically, your enemy’s (Germany) enemy) then next turn you have an empty Kiel, an option to support Russia->Sweden. If you had taken Holland, then an option for Belgium and Denmark (assuming you don’t disband North Sea)
All in all, I think these moves were terrible both short and long term. France can convoy to wales and you can do nothing about it.
France: You made a choice, a good one I think, by committing to north. You have a clear path to take out England, and nobody can really do anything against it. You not moving away from Marseilles also send a clear message to Italy, you won’t build a 3rd fleet there. The others should be worried who will you attack after England is gone?
So, the other triggering country was Turkey. His set of moves were predictable 100%. I think he has a very good chance now to survive this entire game and make it to the final draw. Turkey, you must be wise what unit to disband this turn. Think about you future enemies, your allies, and how can you help both your allies and your future enemy’s current enemy the best way? What 3 units do you REALLY need on the long term.
Italy’s moves are a reaction to Turkey I think, as he realized Lepanto is no longer an option (great job Austria, you closed the option both for yourself and Italy) now Italy had no other choice. Well, that’s not entirely true, as waiting and patience is always an option. I think Italy’s move on Austria is a mistake., but I see no turning back here, as in a gunboat it’s hard to apologize. On the long run, without further explanation just my experience, I think all Italy has achieved is a Turkish survival to the end. But, it’s a long way to go, and Italy has made a coordinated, determined and cohere attack, and with a little this might actually work.
Austria: you were greedy! It was quite obvious Russia will not attack you, thanks to Germany, all you had to do was to bounce yourself in Trieste. You trusted Italy, after you basically shut him off from Turkey. Well, actions have consequences. If I were Italy, I wouldn’t have done it, but that doesn’t mean I’m right, or that there’s only one good solution. You fate depends on how Russia/Germany will get along and what way Turkey chooses to continue. My suggestion, as always, help your enemy’s enemy.
Russia, great guesses and a new build (sort of) makes your position more solid. Sadly you didn’t get the support from England by taking Denmark, but the way I see it your chances are better, especially since Austria has a new enemy to play with, you got some breathing room. As your future, the only question is I think, how quick France will be in England, forcing Germany to turn back. You have some hard work ahead of you, to secure your survival. But with Italy’s move I think you have pretty good chances, maybe better than Germany’s.
Now, we can see how the smallest countries’ (England+Turkey) moves affect everybody, and how big countries, like France, can focus on long term strategy, like choosing to go after England. Small countries must do the right moves, while for the big ones it doesn’t really matter, all that matters who they choose as their next ally/enemy. France could have bounced himself in Brest again, or move out from Marseilles. Trigger countries do not have this kind of dilemma. You have to be able to focus both short and long term goals, the bigger you are, the longer you must think ahead.
Germany: bad guesses, still sporadic units, even with your new build, you are still exposed in Holland/Denmark/Sweden and with a more stable Russia. Just like England earlier, you had options, you chose wrong, shit happens. Still, I think you were lucky, England didn’t take Denmark. You have to be careful with your build and your long term goals. Despite you are the biggest power, your units are still not in harmony, you may be able to grab a Russian SC, but in the meantime France is growing and you can do nothing about it. The time is clicking, and it’s clicking against you. The longer Russia keeps his position, the bigger France will be, and you’ll find yourself in a two front full blown war, where neither Italy (as he is busy) or Austria can help you. You don’t have the luxury to waste too much time here.
As a conclusion Turkey’s move triggered Italy’s reaction which gives breathing room to Russia, making Germany’s life more difficult. As a result France thrives, England falls. That’s how a games dynamics are driven. And all this was triggered 1 round earlier, by Austria taking Bulgaria with his fleet!
You must see, that there are always 7 countries on the map, and your moves affect all of them. But if you are a small country, or even a dying one, then all bets are off, and you can move whatever you want. Big countries’ responsibility is to contain or direct the effect of triggering moves in a way that benefits them. I think this turn France realized that the Turkish trigger benefits him, hence there’s no reason to go south, moreover it’s even better for him to help Italy, hence not moving out from Marseille is clever whether it was deliberate or not.