Probably no one is reading this anyway, but here is part 2.

Peanut Gallery EOG Part 2, 1905-end

1905 - after giving Italy one last chance to build an army to go reclaim Ven (declined once again because why would he want 3 units when he could help Austria and stay at 2 until getting killed off instead) I was forced to spend 1905 focusing on preventing Italy from taking anything with his fleet that retreated to WMed. Thanks to Italy foolishly trying for Spa instead of moving to MAO that mission was accomplished. Also managed to take back Mun after the screwup there in Fall 04 and even destroy the Austrian army in Kie in the Fall. Russia "just passing through" Bul in spring 05 passes on golden opportunity #3 to stab Austria. Bul-Ser and convoy Arm-Bul takes 2 centers off Austria who like most turns this game is way overcommitted West. Those losses combined with me taking Mun back and Austria vacating Nap for TyrS would have left Austria down to 5 centers and disbanding 2 units while Russia built 2. So many fantastic opportunities for Russia and he passed on all of them just to get a second place survive at the end. Uh, congrats on being first loser Ricky Bobby. End of 1905 ends up being the high point for E/F. Up to 14 combined centers. Wouldn't last as England panicked in 1906 and fell for the same crap Austria sold Italy and Russia.

1906 - My notes from Spring 06
Russia is in control of the outcome of this game.
Option A - He stabs Austria now or very soon while Austria is still out of position and lacks units. Likely outcomes - EFR draw (60), Russian solo (25), some other draw (10), French solo (5)
Option B - He does not stab Austria in the next 2 years. Likely outcomes - Austrian solo (45), Russian solo (25), AFR draw (15), some other draw (15)

He ended up choosing option B and no surprise, Austrian solo ensued (if anything I probably had overstated the likelihood of Russian solo from option B as AFR draw ended up being far more likely than Russian solo as things played out).

Spring 06 I tried to talk England out of the moves he ended up doing as they had a very low probability of success, instead suggesting he attack Den from Nth to make sure he held Kie. But in the end his call and sure enough he got dislodged from Kie and Russia guessed correctly with the convoy to Edi. With me taking Ber we were still in decent shape though as Germany would have died out soon and Kie could have been liberated in the Fall. I would have been able to move a fleet up to NAO to help England hold off Russia and he would have gained Den in 07 most likely for a much needed build.

Russia's spring 06 moves around Mos seemed sub-optimal as well as he left himself in a position where he could not take Mos back from England without covering Stp and War which would have left him nowhere to build a second unit anyway (as I had told England to make sure not to attack War or StP so that they would either be open for retreat or occupied for no build by Russia).

On to Fall 06 where England decided to slit his own throat by stabbing me, the only player not trying to kill him and in fact willing to go to great lengths to keep him alive. A terrible short-sighted move buying him 2 units for one year with 2-3 losses almost guaranteed the next year. Had he gone with the suggested fall moves we would have had 11 centers between us still and I would have been able to give him Kie the next year while I took and held Ber, plus I could have sent 1-2 fleets his way to help defend against Russia. Also Austria would not have taken Mun and with his stab in Russia taking Rum perhaps Russia would have finally been willing to fight Austria. A very disappointing turn to say the least. Temporarily down to 4 units, but easily able to recover as England could not hold the stab gains as would be borne out over the next 2 years.

1907 - Austria defers a build, ceding all tempo and momentum and taking a nearly guaranteed solo position and turning it into what should have ultimately ended in a draw. It also convinces me NOT to accelerate the Austrian solo since he is much easier to stop without me being eliminated. So I work with Germany to take back Mun in the spring and hold it with Russia's help in the fall freeing up Bur to take empty Bel back from England while Germany also takes Kie back from him and Russia supports Italy into Lvp. Have I mentioned that England stabbing me was a very bad idea? Year 07 would have gone even better except Italy decided to support Austria into Spa in the fall even though he was finally going to be getting a build which would likely make Austria decide he had outlived his usefulness and would now be a target. Somehow Italy never used the leverage of working for or against Austria to secure Austrian support of Italy into a center despite numerous opportunities where that could have happened (Tun, Spa, Mar). I would have at least respected Italy helping Austria if he had managed to get anything out of it ever.

1908 - Russia supporting me in Mun upsets Austria enough that he pulls back from me in the spring and moved aggressively East. This basically ensures that Russia will not solo and I can not be cut out of the game unless Austria solos. Russia apparently doesn't see this as borne out by his dopey support of Austria into MAO later in the game. I also managed to convince Italy that I would support him into Spa in the spring but instead take it for myself while also grabbing Hol from England putting me back up to 6 centers. In the fall Austria claims he wants to work with me to kill off Russia so I suggest that he let me support him from Mar to GoL so that I can build a fleet in Mar to go use against Russia in the north. He decided not to do this and instead tried to move back to WMed, ending any chance of us actually working together in this game. This turn also sees Russia's incompetent failure to take Swe when he does not hit Den from Nth because he says Germany told him he was just going to let him have Swe so he didn't need to cut that support. That whole exchange factored heavily into my decision-making later when Russia supported Austria to MAO.

1909 - Since Austria decided not to go for the 2-way draw with me (which I think was definitely there for the taking if he had vacated Mar in Fall 08 and continued his attacks on Italy and Russia), I decided to support Italy into Mar to hopefully disband Austria's fleet. This worked. If Russia had taken Swe in Fall 08 I likely would have attacked Kie in Spring 09 but since he didn't I decided it was too risky for me to try to attack Germany at this point. Germany made me immediately regret this decision though by badgering me with ridiculous demands such as giving him Mun and/or Hol. Then in the fall he insisted on me letting him take Hol even though it would almost certainly mean he would lose both Ber and Den/Swe rather than just one center so not even a net gain for him, just transferring a center from me to Russia. I balked at his suggestion at first and eventually agreed to it but covered Hol anyway since if Russia was taking two of his centers no reason to keep him around. He ended up not even going for Hol but instead supporting Austria into Mun and still losing two centers to Russia (why he preferred using Kie to get Austria into Mun over holding Ber for himself another odd decision to me). That combined with Russia's decision to move Austria across the stalemate line and into MAO sealed the deal in this game as an unfortunate solo for Austria even though NAO-MAO to bounce with Austria as requested would have basically guaranteed the 3-way draw. I also panicked when I received last minute press from Italy out of the blue saying that he was going to support me into MAO, which I interpreted as a plan for him to work with Austria to take Spa from Mar and let Austria take Mar from Pie. Had this press come in earlier in the phase and had I had time to respond to it I might not have changed my order from spa-Mao to Spa support hold Mar. Probably the best case would have been if I had gone to bed 15 mins earlier and never seen it.

1910 - No one else is fighting Austria so why should I? I did get to finish off England in Bel so that was nice at least. Italy probably should have just done Mar-Spa in the fall to end this game in 1910.

1911 - in the immortal words of Bill Paxton in Aliens:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=u2ycDWywGls

Well written... "... Russia apparently doesn't see this as borne out by his dopey support of Austria into MAO" I saw that and thought that was probably the worst move of the game.

Oh, I knew.

Great game and EoGs! Good to see I was right about Uclabb.

GG all

I for one am very curious to see EOGs from ATC, PW, and Daximus explaining what in Austria's press to them convinced them to repeatedly go along with his plans in exchange for almost nothing (I think there was one time all game where ucla actually supported another power into a center, Russia into Con).

Pro tip: when you are involved in an "alliance" that consists almost exclusively of gains for the other player you are not allies, you are a sidekick at best and more likely a gofer/toady.

Also all 3 of those players had a lot of leverage in nist if the situations which makes their assistance of Austria in taking centers like Mun rather than securing his support of them into Mun is pretty poor on their part in my opinion. If Russia wants a 2-way with Austria in that endgame then he has to be the one getting Mun and the one moving to MAO. If Germany wants to stab me late he should get Austria to support him into Mun, not put Austria in there. All the early game turns when PW kept helping Austria has to result in him being supported into Tun or Mar or Spa as a third center. He certainly had offers from me repeatedly to get him back into Ven and back up to 3.

Either everyone but me got very different press from Austria or you are all a bunch of suckers. I'm curious which it is.

My EOG is on page 18. Austria and I had had a solid alliance up until he stabbed me in S08. From then, the five/four/three way draw (depending on how many players you and I decided to remove) was certain.

I elected not to take it, not because of any particularly persuasive press, but because I didn't really want to take that draw. I guess in part I also thought that Uclabb wouldn't take a solo that he hadn't earned (I was wrong, and thus it's arguable that he DID earn it, I suppose). I thought there was only a small chance that he'd actually take a two way at that point (I think I said 10% earlier), but the point was more that the west had been so irritating that it didn't seem worth taking the draw. It seemed like a good enough time to make good on that experiment of "what WOULD happen if I risked the solo for a better draw?". And once that question was asked, it made sense to ask it all the way. Dumb question, really. I don't think I'm going to ask it again.

You also asked why I didn't stab Austria in 1904 - the strategic reason I gave then is still true - stabbing him then didn't give me 18 (as in, after a stab it would have been possible to lock me down to 17), and would have meant that I had two hostile fronts rather than just one. I think stabbing him in S07 would have been a good move, solo wise. Clearly, I didn't take that stab.

Additionally, your press was never very convincing - you kept presenting your strategic vision of the board as fact, and when I asked what I'd get from stabbing Austria, I think you counted centres for me. Three more centres is not compelling, unless they're three more that take me over 18.

In this game, I think A/R beat E/F because we were better allies. My moves at the end just took that alliance all the way - but Austria didn't come to the table (of course).

I think "risked the solo" probably isn't strong enough there. It's more "gave the option of a solo to see if a draw might happen instead". It might be a dumb experiment, but for me the game was already over already anyway.

If anyone is keeping score, note that France had started to throw this game in 1906(!), way before it was necessary to ensure his position in the draw.

"I think "risked the solo" probably isn't strong enough there. It's more "gave the option of a solo to see if a draw might happen instead". It might be a dumb experiment, but for me the game was already over already anyway."
^I've done that before. It failed just as horribly.

To me A/R was more of a non-aggression pact than an alliance. Outside of one or two attacks on Turkey very early in the game there was no coordination between you two at all. Up to the time of the stab England and I coordinated on many different moves, so I don't see how you were "better" allies up to that point. Obviously the stab by England (which I think everyone can now agree was a terrible decision by him) throws that out the window a bit, but from 1902 to Fall 06 I don't see how you can credibly claim A/R as better allies than E/F.

As for your reasoning on not stabbing, I guess silly me for not suggesting a plan where you would solo by getting more than 18 centers. I'm sure you would have taken me seriously if I did propose something which guaranteed me to lose though. Seems an odd standard. Where were your 18 in the Austrian proposal?

Also I think your claim that the stabs would only give you 3 more centers is not accurate. Those stabs were 2 centers guaranteed immediately with a third possible each time plus disbands from Austria and empty Austrian centers adjacent to the centers you would be taking. Those stabs would have guaranteed you at least 5-6 net gains with a chance for much more if you and I worked against England down the road. Plus they would have entailed me attacking Austria with you, so England would remain strong enough as a buffer between us to prevent me from getting strong enough in the north to get to StP to get 18 unless you assume England would not fight back at all if I ever stabbed him in that scenario. Also with us both hammering Austria that "front" would have quickly disappeared for you (not to mention all the Austrian units were over by me anyway when you had those stab chances).

All that said, applying your logic I'm surprised you ever thought I would stab England. There was no path to more than 11 centers from me stabbing England, let alone 17 and forget about 18. Best case from me stabbing England when you and Austria kept suggesting it was the way to go was I add all 3 English home centers (and that is pretty optimistic as you almost certainly would have beat me to Edi) to go with Iberia, my home centers, and Bel, Hol, and maybe Mun. And the downside/worst case sees me eliminated or surviving a solo with Austria taking Iberia, Mar, and maybe Par or Bre. The downside for you in the stabs of Austria still put you at 9-10 centers minimum if everything goes horribly for you and you lose all of Scandinavia to England and I beat you to Gre and England beats you to Ber. And in that scenario certainly neither of me or England is soloing so your downside was at worst a 3-way draw with likely upside to a 2-way draw and a possibility of a solo if England or I turned on each other down the road. The whole point is that those stabs would have crippled Austria and he would have been down to 2-3 centers almost guaranteed within a year of the stab whereas the proposed stabs of England were far less likely to produce immediate results. To get an equivalent stab I would have needed to be able to take Lon with a stab and have another unit in Nth or Yor and with at least one of Lvp/Edi empty.

At end of 1906 (after the English stab) I talked about throwing to Austria as I was down to 4 units and facing hostile England, Italy, and Austria with no real allies. So actually at that point I did need to threaten to throw to avoid being cut out. But in the end I did not pursue that course of action and obviously you and Germany found the threat credible as you started helping me rather than helping Austria into Mun in 1907. Point to the "throw" moves I did in 1907 or 1908. All I see is me growing back from 4 units to 6 and working with Italy to disband an Austrian fleet in Mar.

Even my "throw" moves after Russia supported Austria to MAO consisted of just no longer being the only power actually trying to fight Austria. I didn't support him into any spaces, I just stopped trying to take centers from him and defending against him.

@Yaleunc
I'll post an EoG this weekend or early next week.

Bump in case anyone else plans to do an EOG.

Still plan to do an EOG- probably tomorrow definitely by Thursday

So I got a little carried away and ended up only having time for Spring 1901 lol. If others enjoy this, I’ll keep going into detail like this in installments over the next few days. If not, then I won’t.

My first message was from ATC, and it was right up my alley- he knows what I want, and he was willing to offer it- working together from 1901, an alliance with goal to get an explosive mid game position, wanting to pull in the same direction with press. I thought ATC knew that I am a somewhat demanding yet great ally who actually works to make the whole alliance successful, and as we kept talking, all vibes pointed toward him actually wanting to work with me. He immediately agreed to take Rumania with a fleet, and press with Turkey showed that he has also told Turkey that was his plan, so I was pretty sure it was on.

Chumbles also made a great impression on me- he made me feel like I was his #1 and talked a lot about how afraid he was of pw. I’m not sure if he actually felt this way, but it sure seemed like it. Choice quote from his first message was “My instinct in Dip is to play the players and not the positions and I reckon you’re my best bet for this kind of alliance.” This is before I had sent him any messages, so I’m not sure how this works. Maybe it’s finally getting out that I’m the best ally on webdip!

My press with pw was good but not as sparkling- he took a couple shots at trying to convince me to the Orient Express, which apparently ends with him in Tyrolia and Trieste at the end of the year. No, I don’t want you to attack me with my approval. K thx bai. There were also quite a few soft signals that he doesn’t think that I/A is a good alliance, for example he talked about how the I/A border is hard to navigate at the start, which I simply don’t agree with; we jus thave to not attack each other. We agreed to Blue Water with pw going to Piedmont in Spring 1901.

Press with Daximus was ok- it seemed like he wanted to work with me in a CPA like situation. I decided to try to make an attack on France happen- not because I didn’t like Yale, hadn’t heard from him yet- because I was pretty sure I could come out with an ally in the east either A/T or A/R and catch pw before he had finished taking out France, leaving a power vacuum in the Med and an easy path to 12 or so with a strong ally and solo opportunities. That was the idea anyway. I started trying to make it happen. Honestly, I try to get attacks on France going as pretty much any eastern power. France is too strong.

Finally heard from Balki and liked him immediately, although he didn’t give me much substance. Some foreshadowing from him, “This [Russia] seems like a very friendly and reasonable guy (ALERT! ALERT!)”, followed by a message from ATC soon after “England is being fairly disingenuous- he “wants to work with me” but will only consider opening north, and will only work with me If I go south. Going to be a “fun” game over there.” Lol.

At this point I felt like ATC and I were pulling in the same direction, Chumbles was clearly sending me the majority of his press, and ATC and Chumbles seemed to be at each others’ throat. I was pretty sure I had not only choice of ally in the south, but also a likely 3 build first turn, with the 3rd being either Rumania or Bulgaria depending on who I worked with. I was probably slightly leaning toward Chumbles, but both seemed like they would be great allies. However, the organization of the attack on France was falling apart as no one was really taking the bait. PW again asked if he could go to Tyrolia, and he started giving me some shady vibes. I tried to lean in and pitch him the fun way to play Italy, but I did send Russia the message “Is Italy attacking me? I’m getting a weird vibe” to check in on that, to which ATC said “I can’t tell.” Hm. Then Balki hits me with a message right near the end of the turn that says he has heard about a R/I alliance that he “of course agreed to.” First of all, why agree? Second, it just didn’t seem plausible based on what I had heard about the E/R relationship. For whatever reason, this gave me confidence in ATC. I’m curious now, after the game- was this an in good faith leak Balki? At the time it felt manipulative to me.

Moves came out and pw did in fact attack me unilaterally. Egads! More later.

I demand more

You won't believe the people who tell you ROM-VEN, VEN-TYR isn't an attack on Austria unilaterally...

Hey, if you'd gone for it in that game Valis, I would have stuck with you.

I don't remember if I said this above or not, but opening to Tyl and Ven as Italy with Austria on side can be very effective (and I've allowed Italy to do it before, when I was Austria). But, you 100% HAVE to tell Austria that you're doing it. And Austria has to agree.

In this game, Uclabb wouldn't have agreed, so the opening wasn't really available.

In our game, Valis - your Austria agreed and then went Tri->Ven anyway. That clearly demonstrated to me that you were a poor choice for an ally. Why not just say no?

I'm sure this will come up again in uclabb's EOG continued.

I wasn't planning to write a detailed EOG like these ones - but I'm happy to write responses to questions where they come up.

great write up uclabb! Looking forward to more.

Thx and more please.

It's worth playing in uclabb games even if just for the EOGs.

Fall 1901

When we last left off, Italy stabbed me going into Tyrolian and Venice, but Russia and Turkey had come through for me and I felt like I had them with me. It was hard to figure out what pw thought his alliance was, and I sent him a pretty exasperated message. “Are you kidding me? Attacking me unilaterally?” Luckily, ATC still wanted and needed me as an ally and he had a better idea: pitching Italy the I/A/R. This was fine with me. I made sure every power on the board knew that Italy had stabbed me- I find that making it clear who your enemy is is pretty effective at gaining allies, and of course I started trying to mend fences with Italy. HR made some nonsense post about how I shouldn’t blindly trust all my neighbors in 1901- he probably would prefer that I hedgehog. I sent a message to Turkey which I think describes the benefit of trusting people early on pretty well:

“One thing I wanted to add- I think that my and Italy's openings reveal a lot about us as players and as potential allies. Italy is moving against me effectively unilaterally and is sure to try to use his leverage to try to bully me into moving as he desires. On the other hand, I moved in such a way that I was trusting all 3 of my neighbors and letting them reveal whether they were willing to work with me.That's how I'm going to play- if you give me reason to believe you want to work with me- and you have- I'm going to move assuming you are working with me (and rely on tactics/strategy to keep it in your interest to work with me), as this is the way to have a lethal, effective, and long lasting alliance. pw is going to play turn to turn trying to eke out any small advantage he can get and rely on charm.”

To be fair, I don’t think that’s an accurate assessment of pw. He’s no carebear, but it seems like he’s a pretty good ally. Anyway, nobody would admit that they knew pw was going to Tyrolia. I am still curious the story about that. Whatever the deal was it seemed like pw wasn’t making any diplomatic progress on getting an ally against me, so he seemed open to working together. I won’t pretend like I did really anything here, though, it was all ATC. ATC had the idea to pitch him Tyr->Boh, Ven H, Ion-> Aeg, and I really think pw only wanted to work with me because T and R told him no. If anything, I was poo pooing the Ion -> Aeg idea because I didn’t think pw would go for it. Cookies for ATC. Press with ATC was basically just him trying to convince me that I should be confident enough support him to Bulgaria. I basically believed him, but there was no chance I was going to give pw any space to attack me, I kept all my moves radio silence.

Other minutiae- Balki wanted me to try to convince Yale to skip a build and go straight for West Med. I wasn’t going to suggest this because I both didn’t want French fleets in the Med when the plan was to wipe Italy off the map and because it was a bad move for France so why would I suggest it. I did hear from Yale that both Balki and Dax pitched him moves where he skips a build, to which he sensibly said “I will not be forgoing a build, that makes no sense to me.” Those playdippers are shameless.

Also, zultar promised modship to whoever soloed the game. I was not a mod at that point. #modgoals

So *that* is why Italy made that zero build opening and died.

Where's the Dax, Balki, PW contributions? You can't sign up for a peanut gallery game and then withhold the ending remarks. Bad form!

Still waiting on more from ucla and anything from PW, Dax, and Balki.

Bump

Still plan to finish this. Next installment is probably Sunday night