wow hadn't checked up on this in a while.. Those Russian builds man. He is stabbing himself to make sure Austria's knife will go in haha. Still Austria can't solo if the rest pulls together when he stabs. If Austria is still in MAO when Nap&Ion get to Iberia he has a very good shot. Russia has a full year :) Nice game!

Good game everyone. Looks like both France and Russia have chosen an Austrian victory.

Austria can force GAL and can then force SEV with it. Combined with ANK, SMY, MAR, SPA, and POR that's 19 centers, he doesn't even need PAR and can afford to lose MUN (not that he could right now anyways). There's some possible cleverness IF France wanted to turn it around involving BRE-GAS but there's really no reason for him to turn around at this point, and, again, Austria now can force SEV so it's still not enough.

This is all very curious...

I agree with Valis that uclabb can decide to solo right now. I haven't done all the tactics, but I've done enough to convince myself that uclabb can force Sev and that should be enough. This doesn't look like an Austrian stab, so ATC must have decided to allow uclabb a potential solo. However, if ATC wanted to throw the game, there would've been easier ways. So that leads me to conclude that:

ATC believes uclabb will decline the guaranteed solo in front of him.

I assume uclabb has offered ATC a two-way, but why ATC believes that he won't stab him now or later on, I don't know. It's worth pointing out that the two of them have some history of two-way draw agreements turning into Austrian solos: gameID=148522. Perhaps ATC is taking a calculated risk, reasoning that the risk of uclabb stabbing him is low enough to pursue the high reward of a two-way?

It looks to me like uclabb can take Smy, Ank, Mar, and Por this turn, which makes 17 for sure. He doesn't even need Sev then, since Spain would be 18. Am I miscounting or something? This has to be about as close to a surefire solo as you can get.

If France switches sides right now, uclabb might lose Munich. But I think even if we assume that game turns into uclabb vs the rest right now, uclabb still wins by taking Sev+Iberia.

Same analysis as mine I believe.

So, another little catchup session, as I didn't finish typing up my Autumn commentary earlier:

Autumn 1909

England:
Well, that was lucky. A giant miscalculation by France; but you live! For how long is not certain; but you're not in an easy spot to safely remove, so maybe there is yet hope for you. Though not very much.

France:
... What a crap set of moves. Whilst Russia supporting Austria into MAO probably couldn't be predicted; the fact of the matter is that you've failed to convince Russia not to play roullette with the result and go for a small draw. Why you supported yourself to Brest and attempt to leave MAO open I have honestly no idea, especially when Italy supported Spain -> MAO; and Marseilles didn't need a support hold. What on earth was that? Taking Holland was a calculated risk that failed to pay off, but also a symptom of a SECOND failure of press that led Germany to support Austria into Munich. Quite simply; it looks like your talk has convinced pretty much nobody. You might as well have been playing Gunboat. Actually, it'd probably be better if you had been. 200 lines of "I must not send such poor press that TWO separate countries attack me despite the solo potential of a third, unrelated nation"

Germany:
Ouch. And it all looked so rosy so briefly. Supporting Austria to Munich was a smart move which could make it too risky for you to be eliminated; so I can't blame you there. Not so sure what on earth you were doing with the Skaggerack and Sweden fleets though - if you suspected Russia, which you clearly did, why not just attack Norway and try to secure Scandinavia for yourself? The self bounce in Denmark was a pointless move because Russia would obviously support himself in; so you wasted 50% of your units; and will now lose... 50% of your units. Disappointing work; I thought you'd learnt about wasting units from the early game, but apparently not. 250 lines of "I MUST NOT WASTE MY UNITS"

Italy: Well, everyone else may have gone a little bit doolaly, but you did everything you needed to; which was almost nothing. Controlling Marseilles means that Russia can't eliminate you alone; so Liverpool is prrrrrobbably safe for now. But at the end of the day; you still have as much control of this board as the Free Syrian Army has of Syria. That is; none at all.

Austria: Ayyyy, more good work on Munich. Excellent press to convince Germany to do that; and some clearly pretty decent press to keep Russia having... faith, or trust? Probably faith at this point, it does seem a bit blind... in you. His support for you into the MAO is very... interesting; and I'm really struggling to understand that particular move, but hey, it's great for you! Taking Naples was a necessity but it keeps your total chugging upwards; and the opportunity for the solo push is very close now. Another little cookie.

Russia:
Mmmmm. The MAO move isn't just a risk; it's like playing /Russian/ roullette (see what I did there?) when there's 5 bullets in the chamber rather than 1. The stab on Germany was effective enough; and his own failure at Denmark helps significantly. Where to go from here, though? England's survival makes him tough to remove; Germany's support for Austria to Munich makes him risky to remove; Austria remains on the brink of a solo, and you remain in no mans land. To have come so close and yet faltered at the last must hurt, but I think bigger catastrophe's are on the way. No cookies; no lines; just a slow violin playing in the background.

Aaand onto Spring, of what may well be the final year:

England:
I put a lot of thought into how to say this; but in the end... Valar Morghulis. You are the weakest link. Goodbye.

France:
Total surrender and a kamikaze attack your other neighbours. Well, I can't argue with it. I'd probably be fed up too. And I daresay you got a little bit erect from killing England off like that. Your failures were far earlier in this game; and now you're no more than a passenger that Charon is taking across the Styx.

Germany: Really. I mean, you're pretty much dead regardless, but that was the least entertaining and one of the least effective set of moves you could possibly make there. Why not at least support yourself to Denmark and make some ATTEMPT at reclaiming it? I guess that just sums up your game though: Ineffectual, dull, and not quite all there.

Italy: Once again, you remain an island of sensibility in a sea of chaos. Sadly; most island paradises are too good to be true, and yours is too. By letting Russia into Wales; you might not even get that most fantastic of outcomes; the survive. Much like everyone else though; your failings were sewn many years ago. And boy, does it feel like actual years when it comes to commentating some of these moves.

Austria: Yes, yes, excellent stab, almost guaranteed solo, job done. I mean; it was probably harder to fuck up than to succeed here, but I suppose I should give you more compliments either way. Whether Russia was throwing this game or honestly believed you about a 2 or 3 way draw; your press has clearly been excellent. Convincing France, your enemy of oh so long, to kamikaze and throw to you is just the cherry on the top. No cookies for you this turn though; you need to save room for the victory cake. Marseilles, Smyrna, Ankara, Portugal takes you to 17 this year; but I daresay you could spin one last line and get Russia to let you into Sevastopol a year early for the 18 this year.

Russia: And so, the final fall has happened. For so long; Russia battled its way into Board Superpower status and matched and rivalled that of its illustrious rival to the West; but mistakes were made. Too many sausages turned out to be missiles. And unconvincing alliances, detentes, and resurgent alliances have merely led to perestroika, glasnost, and the fall of your iron curtain. It'll be interesting to know at which point you truly gave up on stopping Austria, Mr. Gorbacan.

So the fall moves went through...did uclabb just not win when he could have? He could have taken marseilles and that would have been 18 but he didn't.

He couldn't have taken both Paris and Marseilles

D'oh. Good point.

But why not Con-Bla & Smy-Arm? The position on Sev seems more important than the centers. It's not like the builds matter at this point.

In what sense is the position on Sev more important? I'm genuinely curious.

Let's say ATC had outguessed uclabb this turn and held the army in Ukr. If ATC disbands Norway, he has two builds, so he could build A Mos + F Sev or A Mos & Sev. That makes it a lot harder for uclabb to guarantee Sev: he has to get units to Gal, Sev & Arm and all of those can be bounced. In the time that it takes him to do that, he could lose Munich/Paris. I think he still has it, but it becomes a much closer game.

If, on the other hand, uclabb had moved Con-Bla and Smy-Arm, he'd have been able to take Sev this year against any counterplay (force Gal in Spring, use it to cut Ukr in fall).

Clearly my endorsement is a kiss of death. PW and Balki were some of the first ones beaten down and ATC didn't dominate quite as much as I expected.

Great job uclabb. Shit, you may even pass me by on the rankings with this win.

Hi. Do admins get specially chosen?

No. You need my dashing good looks; and also not to repeatedly multi-account. Goodbye.

What about the rashes, those required too?

They're a side effect of moving up the mod ladder in the first place.

Multi-accounting once is ok though.

They have products for chaffing You don't need to suffer. The again, you chose to be a mod....SUFFER Hahahahhahaahhaha. :))

@peterwiggin,

Thank you for clarifying. Octavious, we can tell them about our other accounts!

Anyway, difficult though it is to say anything interesting about endgame moves, here's some quick commentary. This really should've ended last year :(

England: Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Your diplomatic skills have come up bust.

France: Well, that attack on Kiel was some highly unsuccessful shit. How did you not see that moveset by Russia coming? Ruhr -> Kiel was the only sensible move there, really. 100 lines of 'Fuck this shit, but fuck it properly"

Germany: Oh hey, you took Norway. Too late, but nice.

Italy: Cool. Might sneak a survive. Woop woop.

Austria: Well, that guarantees it all. A couple of my friends are going to Paris next week; seems they'll see you there. Ukraine was smooth. Shame you couldn't end it last year though. Hurry up and win; I want to be writing EoG summaries, not stating the obvious :(

Russia: Holland was nice. Failure to bounce MAO was not. Austria got one last one over you with Ukraine.

@ Al

It doesn't count if the other accounts are Playdip accounts :).

For those of you who are curious, Al goes by the alias of gsmx in the other place.

60 minutes of game play left, unless ATC decides to pull the trigger early.

What, you mean we aren't two way drawing?

Nope

wow everyone ever sucks

So now that the game is essentially over, can we go into some analysis as to where ATC made his fatal mistake?