A Nap would not quite be a declaration of war, more like flashing a sheath knife. A Rom is probably foolish for the reasons you outline though. Or maybe he'll waive the build? ;-)

@bas: I'm not saying the next unit will cause material problems for uclabb. For the reasons you outline, I'll venture a guess for a fleet. What I'm saying that the threat that uclabb had last turn to take PW out in one go is no more. That's pretty significant for uclabb's solo odds imho.

@thorfi: the problem with A Nap is that it serves no useful purpose except making uclabb nervous. It would be quite cool to see Peterwiggin waive a build, but then he's back to the situation from last turn, where uclabb can take him out anytime.

Well ask what the usefulness of Italy to Austria is.
Helping conquer France = good
Helping England crumble = bad (friend Russia grows; undesirable)

Making uclabb nervous is arguably a useful purpose. ATC would probably agree, anyway. ;-) But yes, it's probably not useful for peterwiggin to make uclabb too nervous. Probably.

>Well ask what the usefulness of Italy **to Austria** is.

Bumping. Will post commentary at some point soon :)

Why bother when France's cancel vote is clearly going through?

We're off again, with some builds.

France, are you regretting not taking my advice and working with Austria yet?

France, are you regretting TrPrado talking yet?

Oh, hey, look: Army Naples. I actually think this is better for Italy than Fleet Naples precisely because it *isn't* any actual use to Austria (nor is it a particularly significant threat). My original bet was Fleet Naples. :-)

My other bets were:

A Mar (right, but it seems like the only sensible build, so no guessing points, IMO)

Other builds, I guessed in order of likelihood:

A Vie > A Bud > A Tri (A Bud, not too bad a guess)

A War > A Sev > F StP/nc (F Stp/nc, looks like ATC is more confident in uclabb than I would be, but obviously I'm not looking at press)

Bump. Lots of things happening!

France ain't no Charlemagne

Let's try to spice things up a little bit by doing endgame predictions. Obviously uclabb is going to be the major power in the endgame, but is he gonna solo ?!?

... dramatic pause ...

No, he ain't. He'll get Ank, Smy and in the long term Sev, but War & Mos are very hard to get without Germany or Russia throwing the game to him. He may hold on to Marseilles, but he'll need Italian help which he won't have forever.

My prediction is that uclabb will get to 16 at most, and then the Western powers will have a stalemate line. But who will those Western powers be?
- France is the largest power West of the line, he'll be in it for sure.
- Russia will keep parts of Scandinavia and the British Isles, guaranteeing him part of the draw. Disbanding Bla was a good call!
- Germany cannot be eliminated without allowing him to throw the game to uclabb. Two Northern fleets are just too much.
- England & Italy have a bit of leverage now, but how can they ensure they'll have the same leverage for the remainder of the game? Neither of them has a good reason to throw the game now, but if they sit and wait, France/Russia/Germany might be in position to take them out safely.

My prediction is a F/G/R/A draw. The next question is: how can uclabb turn the game into a three-way once it becomes clear he cannot solo?

Looks like someone has been listening to my advice :)

Can you guys please arrange a 3-on-3 standoff in Mao with five different countries?

Bump

Right. The Big Peanut is back; after pauses threw my scheduling off, and then that internal groan whenever you need to catch up on something, coupled with a lot of work, prevented me from returning until now. The last turn I commentated was Spring 1907; so I'll do A07 as one commentary and then another commentary for 1908, and another for S09.

A07:

England:
Welp. That looks painful. Russia and Italy finally stopped being some incompetent when it came to attacking you; and France and Germany seized advantage as well. I can't say that your moves; other than the consistently pointless attack on Denmark, were particularly poor (Come on though. You've attacked Denmark more times than the GOP have attacked mentioned emails in recent months), but really, after an OK spring, your press clearly failed you in persuading France not to waltz into Belgium; and you went all out for Edinburgh and lost two in Liverpool and London at the same time. Actually, the more I look at it, the worse those moves on the home isles were, so I retract my previous statement about your moves not being bad. I must have been going soft in my absence. Very disappointing. You really need Austria to come to your rescue now. 200 lines of "I must not risk my entire defence to try and capture one single SC"

France:
Well done for persuading Russia to support hold Munich - that was a very good bit of work. Losing Spain is unfortunate, though, and was caused by your hopeless move to WMed in Spring rather than moving to Portugal and putting England in MAO. It means that your gain of Belgium is of little consequence because Marseilles is surrounded now; and you've sent England up shit creek with fuck all gain for yourself. And much though the utter implosion of England amuses me; you should be making gains if you're taking part. Instead; you seem to have played the role of Sweden in the Deluge of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth; and, well, who considers Sweden a great power today? Still, the A/R appears to be cracking, so maybe all is not so bad for you. No cookies, no lines.

Germany:
EYYY! You got a new SC! About fucking time you took advantage of that situation to finally get yourself that long expected build. Oh, wait, Russia fucked you over and took Sweden because you took so many years to take Kiel. I won't say I told you so, but, I really TOLD YOU SO REPEATEDLY for many years. And Russia being in Prussia as well does not spell good things for you, either. You, much like England, are really in need of Austrian rescue; because France & Russia seem to be working together. If only Austria was still in Munich, instead of booted out by your support in Spring... 100 lines of "HR was right and I should bow down before him, and also not play Germany like a patient Italy".

Italy:
Well about fucking time. After the failures of that Spring, finally getting Liverpool and that long promised build are about as good as it gets. Moses didn't live to see his promised land; and I was beginning to think you wouldn't either; even if the Apostle HR collected all your mishaps into a holy book. Perhaps now you can title that book 'Redemption' rather than 'Futilities". Austria doesn't surround your home SC's anymore; so this is the opportunity you needed. No cookies yet, though.

Austria:
Ah, my pride and joy, you continue to impress me and tower above most of the rest of these guys. A successful block of Rumania; the capture of Spain; the surrounding of Marseilles; the ability to force MAO, and the continued absence of a Russian fleet in Constantinople. That's 90% of the boxes checked right there. Italy getting his build is problematic, though, especially when you're no longer in Tyrrhenian and Venice to exert maximum control on him. This is the time where vassal states get restless, and you have to decide whether to send the tanks in and follow the Brezhnev Doctrine; or practice glasnost, and get ripped apart by them. I'd recommend the former. Elsewhere; the implosion of England is not very good for you; nor is the Russian stab on Germany. Anything you can do to prop up either of them, particularly Germany, is definitely worthwhile here. Another cookie for you though!

Russia:
Well, that convoy from Edinburgh to London was an excellent move; and I fully congratulate you on that one. You sold England a dummy and left him looking stupid (again), and Italy grabbed Liverpool and a build too. Very positive. I'm not so sure the stab for Sweden was really worth it on Germany though - with him not getting a disband, and likely to counter-attack you straight away; along with France being tied up just trying to hold onto Munich from Austria; this could be quite problematic for you. Then again; had Rumania succeeded, this would be a very different story, and you'd be searching for a solo. Still. It didn't; and now you're facing a war on four fronts (five if you count Turkey as a separate one if that Ionian fleet goes East). Not great. You still get a cookie for the London convoy, though. Great stuff.

I'm confused...

Ohhhhh now I get it. Wow I should read better.

1908 Commentary:

England:
I'm surprised you disbanded Holland & Heligoland; when Germany and Russia were about to fight, and kept the home island units that were inevitably doomed. Maybe you put all that effort into Edinburgh that you just wanted to save face there; but I think that was a definite wrong decision. Letting France walk into Holland unopposed was poor; and, well, hey. Sure enough; you lose Edinburgh and the two units there anyway. What an absolute waste. I can't bring myself to be angry at someone who's fallen so much from his early start; but really... what the fuck was the strategic thinking there? Maybe keeping one unit there to ensure that the Russian and Italian units had to delay going south to deal with it would've been good; but keeping both? Dumb. Dumb, dumb, dumb. Especially when France will use that build from Holland to threaten Brest as well. 200 lines of "Don't abandon defensible areas with opportunities because of nostalgia for the good old days".

France:
Well; England threw you a delicious one in spring with Holland as a gift; but the real coup here is finally putting your differences with Austria aside to send him back off Eastwards and let you consolidate your position; hopefully removing the English parasite that's sucking something out of you in Brest (and not in a good way) in the process. Marseilles falling was guaranteed; but Spain's recovery allows you a route toward getting it back, and the alliance of convenience with Germany in the centre gives the combination of you two enough influence to actually be up there with the two behemoths if you can stick together and avoid squabbling over Munich. On the other hand; Russia was clearly on shrooms this year and as a result the Austrian stab of him has been far more successful than it should have been; which means you have problems on the horizon to deal with; and still lack a decent naval presence; whilst controlling neither of your two coastal home SC's. A small cookie nonetheless; some good diplomatic work this year.

Germany:
YOU DID IT! YOU GOT A BUILD! France leaving the RF, whether or not that was down to your diplomatic work is fantastic (to be frank; based on this game; I highly doubt you had anything to do with it at all, but maybe you pulled a stunner out). Recapturing Sweden was fairly easy (Russia's stab for it really did suck), but Russia backing away from Berlin, with France supporting you in place. And look at that - you finally took a chance and you got your build from it. Now, to find a way to get Munich back without upsetting France; or to make peace with Russia. I've said for quite some time that if you manage to do the initial recovery then you're actually in a really good position - here's your chance to prove it. Have your first cookie in god knows how long (if this isn't actually your first ever)!

Italy:
What the fuck was A-Nap? You spend all that time build hunting... for that? Do you enjoy being Austria's bitch? You might as well have not built at all; that was utterly pointless and a gigantic waste of a great opportunity. F-Nap, and a shot at Tunis? Awesome! A-Rom; and pressure on Venice? OK. A-Nap; and nothing anywhere? Ridiculous. Not to mention how vulnerable Liverpool is to being gobbled up by Russia; on the only front Russia hasn't managed to self destruct on. If this was the best you could do with a build; I'm not surprised Austria kept you around and let you get one. 200 lines of "I must not spend 3-4 years working to get an advantage and promptly piss it down the drain"

Austria:
It's getting tiring to keep praising you; but well done again! It remains to be seen whether pulling back from MAO was the right call; but peacing with France and getting him to turn on Russia was fantastic; and I'm going to take a calculated guess that it was you and not Germany who did most of the diplomatic work there. In the East; you've torn ghu- ATC a new asshole after an utterly inept year by him, and not only have you kept Rumania AGAIN, but you've taken Constantinople; permanently ended the threat of a Russian med fleet; and broken a hole in Anatolia that he simply can't defend - I think that permanently ends his solo prospects here. In the meantime; Italy's decision to be the biggest pussy in the world has been adequately punished by you; and your own solo prospects are looking rather tasty. It all depends on how well France, Russia, and Germany can come together here - if indeed they can at all. Another giant cookie for you; that was great to watch.

Russia:
Where to begin. WHAT THE ACTUAL AND ABSOLUTE FUCK WAS THAT? I haven't seen a year that terrible since Chumbles and Daximus in 1901; or Yaleunc's midgame implosion. This might be worse than all three. What the hell was the convoy to Armenia? Like... what the hell. Totally. What the hell. In every word... what was the point of that? Abandoning Constantinople; leaving Bulgaria free so he has no need to support hold it, for a possible 50/50 on Smyrna or Sevastopol that he's unlikely to take because, HEY, HE CAN WALTZ INTO CONSTANTINOPLE. WHICH HE DID. Hell, I thought ghug smoked too much weed. Gaining Galicia is irrelevant when Austria has two builds; and he's just made an absolute mockery of you. Rumania is guaranteed to remain Austria; you won't be taking Constantinople back; Smyrna and Ankara are at Austria's mercy, and he should frankly be soloing from here. Then we switch to your other fronts - oh, hey, that stab of Germany was just as pointless as I thought. Sweden is lost; Bothnia is trapped where it can't actually go anywhere from (and is thus the sensible disband, making the building of another northern fleet EVEN MORE POINTLESS), and Germany is finally into a nice position. Now, I see in Global you were trying to persuade people that you weren't a threat in Spring. This is great! I support that! ... BUT DON'T PERSUADE THEM BY RUNNING AROUND LICKING EVERY WINDOW IN SIGHT. Awful. 1000 lines of "I must not play Diplomacy on a fuck ton of acid". I think you've spent too long in Australia - clearly you're too used to everything trying to kill you, and don't take it seriously enough now.

Spring 1909 (Current Phase):

England:
Cool. You bounced Brest. You're going to die. It was nice knowing you; but you've dug your own grave with some spectacularly bad decisions in the second half of this game; and frankly, I can't say you deserve to survive. Austria not threatening MAO this turn guarantees your death; and I'd be surprised if any of them mourned you here. It's quite a rarity where one player can be in a position where their death is beneficial for everyone on the board when there's still solo possibilities; but well done, you achieved it! Requiescat in pace.

France:
Good job on Marseilles - that ends Austria's presence over the stalemate line; and if you can hold Iberia (which you should be able to easily do) then in theory, Austria can't solo without it being thrown to him now. In theory. On the other hand; if Russia is trying to go back into an AR on the hopes you can control Austria... well. Who knows? It begs the question of what his ulterior motive is here: draw-cutting at the expense of Italy or Germany, or both? An eye on a highly unlikely solo still? Food for thought. Nothing really worth giving you a cookie for there, though.

Germany:
Hmmmmmmm. I'm not sure about this. Russia flowing back into an AR where he's right under Austria's thumb isn't good news for you. The fact he's in a position where he could be trying to cut you out of the draw is even worse. This is the problem with not owning Munich. Something was definitely up when he disbanded Black Sea, and if I were you; I'd be considering how to make sure you can't be cut out. Austrian support to Munich? Supporting Austria to Munich?! There are ways.

Italy:
Cool. You took Marseilles; and thus it's far less likely (though still not impossible) that you'll be cut out of this draw. The fact Austria isn't close to threatening MAO thanks to that fleet disband you just smacked on him means that Liverpool could get snatched by Russia without much of a worry; and I think you might've actually "prevented" the Austrian solo too soon - the fact his threat level just dropped significantly makes the board more fluid again. As an expert on pulling games out of apparent endgames and back into midgames; so I can solo 18 game years later in live gunboats, I can assure you that right now; I'd not be inclined to draw as any of France, Russia, or Austria (or even Germany, to be frank). So if there are people after my own heart in that game; you're far from out of the woods here.

Austria:
Ya know; for the first time in a while, I'm disappointed in one of your moves. I could see Marseilles coming from a mile off after last year, and I'm surprised you didn't too. I expected to see a pull back from Piedmont to Tuscany; and the salvaging of your fleet there by retreating it to Piedmont. So letting it get disbanded so cheaply is uncharacteristically poor; and maybe even shows a blaze attitude after the demolition job you took to Russia last year. Elsewhere, though, things look decent. Russia trying to bribe you out of gutting him is interesting; and his playing for time gives opportunities to both of you, putting you into another battle of wits here. By not instantly gobbling him up; you've kept the board fluid and made sure this doesn't shut down yet, so I've got to tip my hat there. Clearly, you've learnt something from me in the Mod Chat! ;). Still though, I can't look past that Marseilles disband. 100 lines of "I must not let my fleets get disbanded so cheaply".

Russia: Well, that's a dangerous game. I suppose it keeps you at OK strength after last year's humiliation; and you can certainly narrow the draw down from here. Whether you can do something more... well, that would be quite the miracle. It'd also require you to win a battle of wits over Austria for the first time in this game; so I'm not optimistic there - but never say never. I can't say much more about your moves until we see where you're going with them, so for now, I await with (sort of) baited breath.


And voila! I am caught up. #ReturnOfTheBigPeanut

And ze draw reduction begins... starting with Germany. I will be very surprised if we don't see Build Fleet Sevastopol, no?

Unaccepted Fleet Irish Sea Support Move To MAO From Spain is... curious. I'd love to see the press on that one. :-) @Basv If it'd been accepted that would have been 4 countries out of the 5 you wanted...

Maybe a noob question, but why would Russia build an army in StP? It's not like he's going to have too much trouble with Germany fighting over Sweden. Why not put a defensive army in Sevastopol? The risk of Austria deciding just to steamroll over him seems kinda high (although I admittedly haven't been following this game the whole time, so maybe I don't have context). If he was insistent on building in StP, would it not be better to slap another fleet in the north?

Because ATC is trying to entice uclabb to not solo by offering a 2WD, going by those builds. Commentary later.

HR, I'm not saying your analysis is wrong that that's the strategy, but the strategy is asinine. Austria owns SMY and ANK and France can give him POR/SPA/MAR with no problem and if Russia continues this course, no remorse [that's 18 for AUS]. He's disbanded SPA and already readied up. Munich can barely be taken WITH France's help, and certainly not whatsoever without France's help.

NAO s NAF-MAO was ridiculous.

HR, I get that he wants to ally with Austria, it's just that I'm pretty much in accordance with Valis right now. Why would he trust Austria when Austria is in prime position to rip him to shreds? And if even if he was going to go for a 2 way draw, it seems that a fleet would have been more effective than an army stuck in Scandinavia. Just my 2 cents, I'm less experienced than this crowd so maybe y'all see something I don't.

Even though I suggested Build Fleet Sev above - I'm not as convinced it's a good plan as all that, looking at the board properly. If we assume Ank/Smy belong to uclabb for 15SCs, which they probably do, that's still fine, Sev/Mos/War are defensible, provided ATC can pick up a build or two.

Let's assume Yaleunc is actually throwing the game to uclabb, so that puts uclabb up to 18 if he picks up Mar/Spa/Por.

However, if uclabb hands over Munich to ATC (or, indeed, ATC actually just takes it by force, which is potentially possible although unlikely), then that's 17 each instead. If that's the plan, then A StP is necessary for logistics reasons to make Russian progress in the west. F Sev is not necessary for Russian progress, F Sev is just a unit sitting around the back doing absolutely diddly squat. It's not like it's going to be able to take SCs off Austria all on its own.