Autumn 1906/Spring 1907:
The defining aspect of this game right now: Russia is at 12 centers, and practically speaking, 14 centers (assuming Ankara and Smyrna this turn or soon), with another likely gain out of Serbia and Greece. England is right behind, at 10 centers and potentially an easy 13 in the next couple of years (Spain and two of the German centers, although England seems to have given up making any moves against Germany). Both of these countries are solo threats, although it’s distant for either one. Now it is a question of what kind of players we have; is it worth risking someone else getting a solo for you to take a shot? How good do you feel like the odds have to be? Some players will want to draw unless their own solo is practically assured; others don’t care what happens if they don’t win.
The fall 1906 moves featured a missed turn by Italy, something which happens sometimes in this game. If that influenced England’s decision not to finish off Germany, taking Marseilles instead of the near-certain Munich and Kiel, then that’s a pretty big deal. My guess would be, however, that England and Germany had already decided that the risk of a Russian solo was too great.
ENGLAND: D+
I was a bit confused by the English moves. England were trying for Kiel, which indicates hostility to Germany, but also grabbing an Italian center and not making moves to ensure taking Kiel – cutting Munich and Ruhr. Maybe Spain was supposed to bounce in Marseilles? That doesn’t make much sense, either. Sending the army to help stop Russia around Venice? It would already be too late. Perhaps the thinking was, if you got Kiel, cool, and if not, at least you get Marseilles.
The move from North Sea to Belgium in fall of 1906 is an understandable one, but I think a mistake; moving to Norwegian Sea or bouncing Norway makes more sense. It’s very unlikely that Ruhr would try for Belgium: Ruhr moving to Holland, to cut the support, or holding Kiel are much more likely, so it’s not really necessary to cover Belgium. There are some wasted units, in other words. Either you’re attacking Germany, so you need those units to be attacking, or you’re not, and that fleet should be dealing with other things. Russia’s behavior indicates that you could have gotten to the German part of the stalemate line before Russia could stop you, but, if you’re not going for a solo yourself or reducing the draw, then it doesn’t really matter.
I guess the real issue I have with England’s moves is that I can’t quite figure out what the goals are. England seems to be trying to do a lot of stuff, rather than focusing strongly on one thing.
(To be clear, England is doing well in this game – a solo shot is still possible, if very unlikely, and survival is guaranteed. The likeliest outcome is a medium-sized draw, which is a perfectly fine ending. But England could be in stronger shape, and if the stakes were higher in the middle of the continent, then these moves could have resulted in some problems).
GERMANY: C
Germany had to hold, so, good. Disbanding Ruhr is probably the smarter decision, since Baltic Sea is harder to cut (but also less flexible, being unable to help cover Munich). A combination of competent tactical play, diplomatic skill, and luck has potentially put Germany into the draw. Curiously, Germany might be in better shape if Russia was a little more hostile – if England doesn’t think it crucial to protect German centers to stop a Russian solo, then Germany becomes less important.
ITALY: C-
Not quite to the extent of Germany, but, it looks like a reduced Italy is going to survive into the stalemate. Getting Italian and English units into position to ensure Russia does not get beyond the eastern side of the Mediterranean is the key here. Turkey’s curious continued hostility, though, indicates some diplomatic failure. More than anyone else’s, Italy’s position hinges on the ability to throw the game to Russia or (maybe) England.
TURKEY: D-
Turkey’s moves are very strange to me. It almost looks like throwing centers to Russia. If Turkey and Russia are working together to ensure that Russia wins (for whatever reason), then Russia is probably grabbing centers too soon. Maybe Turkey knows Italy and England plan to let Russia finish him off?
Turkey couldn’t guarantee stopping Russia, but it’s certainly possible to slow things down. Grabbing Naples perhaps put Italy and Turkey on a collision course; if so, it wasn’t worth the center. Disbanding the Naples fleet (since Turkey couldn’t hold it anyway) would have been better, I think; Turkey could have possibly defended some home centers, or at least slowed Russia down until Italian and English help arrived, to make it to the draw. Either someone isn’t thinking out all the moves properly, or there is something going on behind-the-scenes that I don’t quite grasp.
RUSSIA: B-
I don’t think Russia is going to get to a solo, unless there are serious tactical and strategic errors on the other side. Some of the play maybe could have been stronger; Sevastopol to Rumania covers the center, and that’s important, but it also means that it will take an additional phase to get that fleet out. But I don’t know how much a difference it makes – riskier moves might make a solo more likely, but a misstep would make it nearly impossible. I do like the move to Smyrna first; Ankara will be there, and you can take it at your leisure.
I have to think Russia is doing something right diplomatically. He is eating Turkey while either convincing Turkey to keep attacking west or at least not giving a reason for Turkey to turn back east. Sometimes the best move is to not get in the way of someone else making a mistake.
One last thing to think about: Russia has about two builds coming, and maybe three. But let’s be conservative and say that Russia gets two builds for the fall, putting him at 14. That means that Russia needs some from both the gettable sets of German and Turkish centers (four of Serbia, Greece, Berlin, Kiel, and Munich) for a solo. And yet, Turkey has absolutely no leverage with a western alliance trying to slow down a Russian solo, while Germany has plenty. I think that everyone in this game understands geographically and tactically why that is; if not, ask your TA about it.
Hello all!
left of my starting 100 so if anybody's up for a cheaper game, I'd be up for that. A little bit about myself: I'm a huge Tolkien geek, I absolutely love sports, and I'm currently in college so I'll be pretty busy for the next 4 weeks.
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