Al-Jazeera English says Human Rights Watch is reporting 233 killed. But they've also interviewed a doctor over the phone who says 300+ in Benghazi. I do not know what the end result will be, but historically, Qaddafi has been far more dependent on the consent of the governed than most Arab despots (although that may've changed in recent years with all the oil exports).

It is interesting that while all of this is going on in one of the biggest oil exporters in the world, the lead story on cnn.com is the winner of the Daytona 500 and msnbc.com is going with the NBA all-star game. What a sad comment on the American people.

@tolstoy - are you sure you are not looking at the sport subpage? When I go to cnn.com it has Libya front and center.

@Bez - odds are very much on the incumbents side. Plus he's had 40 years practice.

No, I'm definitely not looking at the sports page. It's at the top of the left-hand column of the main page when I view it. I believe most web page viewers will look at the center of the page first, the left column later.

I think he will stay in power. He is using a much heavier hand than Mubarak did, and I don't think Libyans are as educated as the Egyptians, and certainly don't have the army on their side. I forget the article, but I remember one citing a protester who said the troops that fired were speaking French, indicating that they were Tunisian or Algerian guns for hire

no

Wouldn't being heavy handed fuel the uprising? If 200 people are killed, that would seem to further undermine the standing of the regime. Cutting off telecommunications would may delay the spreading of unrest, but certainly not prevent it.


More interesting reading (slightly related):
http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110220-intelligence-guidance-week-feb-20-2011?utm_source=guidance&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110220&utm_content=readmore&elq=4938dcc0430b409a954733ea0f1b4362

I think the key to this question is how many protesters are turning out. As in, what proportion of the population support it?

@fielder "Plus he's had 40 years practice. " -- does that mean he has quelled uprising before and gotten away with killing civilians? Can you point to similar incidents?

Well a good start is to read his wikipedia page, where you will see he has been up to his neck in all kinds of devious shit for the last 50 years. This guys quite an operator.

As just one example, he is officially held somewhat responsible for blowing up that pan-am jet over lockerbie.

Would it be too simplistic to see the troubles in Libya, at least in part, as a rebellion of the indigenous Berber people against their Arab colonisers?

That 'Arab colonizing' happened 1300 years ago. I expect the Berbers are over it by now (if they ever had a problem with it to begin with). I'd also think that after thirteen centuries of intermarriage, there wouldn't be much of a distinction between Arabs and Berbers in Libya.

Tolstoy, you might find this link interesting/informative, on the other hand it might just annoy you -

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wikileaks-files/libya-wikileaks/8294836/LIBYAS-BERBER-MINORITY-STILL-OUT-IN-THE-COLD.html

I experienced zero annoyance in reading that, fulhamish. Thanks. We have the US Embassy wanting to investigate the conditions of the Berber minority, and Libya saying there is no Berber minority (Berbers are just Arabs with a funny accent according to the Libyan government) and taking exception to the question, with a telling and slightly amusing retort ("...can we inspect the minorities living in America such as the blacks, the Red Indians, and the Chicano?"). Interesting reading, and I had not realized there was still a distinguishable difference between Berbers and Arabs in Libya. But if what's going on in Libya is largely a Berber revolt against an Arab majority, I think the Arab majority (80% according to wikipedia, and probably higher than that in Tripoli and Benghazi) could've put it down quickly and quietly, and there would not be mass casualties in overwhelmingly Arab cities. According to what I've been hearing the last few days, the main division in the country (insofar as national divisions are relevant to the situation) is sectional, with the Eastern half being tied commercially and culturally more to Egypt and the Western half more to al-maghreb.

I could be wrong, but I'm sticking to "no" on your original question.

I doubt the berber minority is significant. I think the 'troubles' going on in the arab world is caused in large part by the unbalanced demographic. In Libya for example, about 88% of the population are urban, and about 50% of the population is under the age of 15. Lots of marginalised young people who want to live like people do in the wealthy countries, and they know that won't happen unless things change.

Good luck to them, they'll need it.

Thank you for taking the trouble to read that reference Tolstoy. I tend to agree with you that it might not be the major factor in the Libyan conflict. I did, however, originally write that it was likely to be a partial factor in the conflict. Perhaps you might now agree with that?
Moreover, I hope that reading that article might give you pause for thought on your comment:

That 'Arab colonizing' happened 1300 years ago. I expect the Berbers are over it by now (if they ever had a problem with it to begin with).

Of course one can apply the same analysis to Algeria and Morocco and, perhaps, Tunisia as well. I speak here from the personal experience of having several friends among the Algerian Berber indigenous minority.

I guess it depends on whether the demonstrators or Qaddafi can muster support from the fleet in the Ionian Sea;-)

It has indeed given me pause, and I appreciate the new information. I've always figured the Berbers were completely assimilated into the Arab culture over the centuries, much as German and Irish immigrants of the 19th century have been completely assimilated into American culture and the Norman invaders were assimilated in England. How 'other' do your Berber friends feel in the Arab majority countries where they live? If they are or would be protesting against their government(s), would ethnic tension be their primary grievance, or do you suppose other considerations (unemployment, inflation, official repression, etc.) would be key?

Tolstoy, as a side note (not to change the topic): From what I hear from UK visitors, Celts such as Irish, Welsh, and Cornish, etc seem to clash with the Anglo Saxons still to this day. One English guy said to me that they "really do not get on with the Welsh." I did not ask if that he implied that the cause of the issue was ethnicity, but I find it worth mentioning. Perhaps other from the U.K. can shed some light.

Interesting point, the ethnic division is.

Another issue would be that the uprising does not seem to have the support of the military unlike Tunisia and Egypt.

Tolstoy, here is something else for you to consider:

http://www.mondeberbere.com/presse/BerberKoran.htm

On my level, and taking a sample of just four individuals, I have found one Berber pan-Arabist, one Berber internationalist (Chomskeyesque?) and two who resent militant Islam and long for halcion days in the Atlas mountains where everybody 'got on'.

I have no idea how true the latter sentiment might be in reality. I do, no however, that the latter three have expressed sentiments of being the forgotten indiginous people of Notrth Africa. Indeed your post rather confirms that this view rather goes against the currently accepted conventional narrative.

Two Libyan fighter pilots defect, fly to Malta

http://af.reuters.com/article/libyaNews/idAFLDE71K23020110221

Army, Air Force, and even the Navy firing on protesters. Soldiers executed for disobeying orders. Al Jazeera reporting 61 people killed in Tripoli on Feb. 21.

http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/20110220-unrest-libyan-military?utm_source=redalert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=110221%282%29&utm_content=readmore&elq=89f2f3d8929f4f4f8aaf98954e694976

This bloke's a monster.