Waiting for retreats to comment.

bump

Question for the profs: I just won another game (against noobs, so don't hold it against me). This makes 2 wins as Turkey, 1 win as england, and 1 win as germany in a vdip fog of war variant. What does this say about my style?

Whilst I'm not a prof, that doesn't seem like enough to tell.

I just find it strange that I can only win as one of the witches.

@rojimy - That tells me nothing. As Mendax says, not enough info. Please limit questions on this thread to questions concerning the current game. (Oh. And congrats on the win!)

To everyone else - apologies. I've been traveling this weekend and will probably. Of have time to write commentary until after the phase has changed again. I'll write up both seasons in the Fall. Thanks for your patience.

I have just gotten home and have a few minutes before I have to catch some sleep, so I'll at least give a little commentary.

Austria: Italy is in GRE. I'm going to guess that was not planned. If he hasn't already found a new ally he's clearly in the market. I hope you've been doing some serious work in the press. If you don't find a new friend soon, you're sunk.

England: Really liked the move to YOR. Force France and Germany to cooperate if they're going to take you out this turn.

France: Good orders all around. Italy second guessed the move to TYS but that's a minor hang-up. Good season.

Germany: Your good fortune in Scandinavia should make up for the frustration of not getting LON into YOR. I also really liked the bounce in BOH. Well done.

Italy: Probably kicking yourself for wasting an order supporting Germany into PIE, but good for you working that angle in the press. Not sure how you're going to hold GRE and SER both - that stab on Austria (if it was indeed a stab) may have been ill timed. We'll see how the Fall turns out.

Russia: If you were sure that Germany was aggressive, I don't like the move to BOH. SIL would have been the much better choice. Also, it seems that FIN supporting NWY would have been the smarter move (not just because I've seen the German orders) - I'll comment more on that when I do a full write-up.

Turkey: You have a friend! Well, at least you have a neighbor who isn't intent on your destruction. Italy backing off (and hitting Austria on the way out) could mean great things for you.

Again, sorry it's short. I'll make up for it after the Fall turn. Overall, a really well played season all around.

hi, i've been following this thread for a while, and tried using the ideas given at the start of the game, but have encountered some problems.could you plase help me with them?

so first, i try allying with everyone on the board, but then face a lot of problems with trust after they talk to each other, or if i tell them i am in an alliance with someone, which i would gladly break. i also face the problem of two allies wanting me to do conflicting things. is there any way to try choosing one while still keeping the other happy?

second, i tried talking to someone after they stabbed me, reestablished the alliance, only for them to just keep on invading. is there any way to avoid this?

finally, this doesn't have anything to do with the game, but it could be useful knowledge for the future, what are probably the ten most important squares? (land or sea)

Thank you, answer if you want, don't feel that you need to though.

Well, my sense is you talk with everyone but not everyone is an ally. You can be noncommittal for a while but at some point you have to work with someone and against others. Keep talking to everyone because you can often change people's minds especially if circumstances change

@Triumvir...sorry, didn't mean to post an unrelated question. I was trying to see if there is a corelation between a successful style of play in other games versus a seemingly unsuccessful style of play in this one. Guess that question should be left to my own personal analysis.

I didnt want to be a commentary hog but I will toss a late one in on this phase :
For the first time in a couple of years the viewers interest has been pulled from the France/Germany Bromance and into the orgy that is the southeast. As usual I will put my commentary in order of interesting things.
BOHEMIA :
Yes, the most interesting move to me was Bohemia. It raises so many questions that people in the game have answers to and I do not. 1. Did Russia tell someone he planned to move there and it leaked to Germany who bounced him? 2. Did Germany move there knowing it would bounce and leave his unit in a position to assist France in Italy? 3. Did Germany move there to begin assaulting Russia and if so, why move to Tyrolia at all? 4. How does France feel about this?
I am also reading Russia's move as anti-Austrian not anti-German as Triumvir was but this is another question I am unsure of.

TURKEY :
You chose a path which leaves your options open for the next phase. You helped the desperate Italy get out of the surrounded Serbia and into Greece which had the side benefit of hurting Austria. The question I have for you, which I assume you have an answer to, : What are you going to get out of the deal. Remember, the best "deals" are when you both get a direct benefit. The good news is you left options open for Fall, but you will need to take one.
You also chose to move an army out of Smyrna and into Syria? I cant figure a reason why you would do that. I am chalking that up to a miss-order.

RUSSIA:
You lost Scandanavia, but you knew that would come eventually. The real question is how you make lemonade from your lemons. I wont give direct advice but :
1. Think about where he is likely to go next and think about where you would ideally like your units to be positioned at the end of this phase.
2. You cant fight two fronts by yourself. At least as of last phase, you still havent found a close friend or at least one who needs your friendship. Find a way to make it happen because your wheel spinning in the south is what will doom you as you take losses in the north. All the while Germany's mainland is wide open to you but your stalemate is taking all your resources and getting you nothing.

ITALY :
I would not say this was a good round for you. I think you would have preferred all your orders went through and you lost Tunis, unfortunately all your units are out of position for a home defense and will not get there in time. Like Russia, you have some lemons, floating around in East Med. Time to make some lemonade with them, but even that lemonade is going to be a bit sour.
I like the move to Greece, I actually expected Austria to stab you in the Fall phase so moving to a more defensible position was wise.
Greece goes along with my advice to you. Your game is toast (sorry but it is) so I think your best bet is to reduce your loses and dig in and defend and hope something breaks in a way you can get into a large Draw.

AUSTRIA :
Ironic you finally went to move Albania to someplace useful and it didnt get there because of the person you were helping, good news is that it can defend Trieste now....bad news is a fleet in Trieste is just a placeholder.
Like Triumvir said, you need a friend. Is there someone else nearby who also needs a friend? Who also borders a dangerous growing power? Who was also stabbed by a recent ally? Who is also wasting resources on a stalemate which is gaining noone SC's? Who's units are in a position to support eachother offensively and defensively? Romeo Romoe where art though?

GERMANY :
You guessed right this round in Scandanavia. Now the the guessing game flips a little to you needing to also defend something while also figuring out how to get to Edinborough. Alot of pans in your fire. Happy juggling.

FRANCE :
Not much to say. Sometimes not being surprising is the best person to be because you have set things up such you dont have to be tricky. The most surprising thing this round will be what SC's you decide to strike for.

ENGLAND :
You finally came out of your shell to stymie Germany. Its the small victories in Diplomacy that stop you from putting your fist through the screen.

Professors :
In rereading my commentary, I was kind of harsh with Italy's situation. I would be curious if you agreed with my assessment of his likely situation in the next couple phases and how he should handle it?

Also any enlightenment you may have on Bohemia would interest me as well.

@Dyager - I don't think that the move to BOH was anti-German. I, like you, think it was anti-Austrian. That was my problem with it. Russia had to know that Germany was aggressive. Why keep butting heads with Austria when he could have moved to SIL unhindered and really put some pressure on the only person who is putting any real pressure on him? Also, I assume the move to SYR was insurance, just in case Italy decided to continue to press the Lepanto (even with France breathing down his neck).

To everyone else - I will take a look at this new phase and comment on the entire year later this evening or tomorrow at the latest.

@triumvir - ah, I misread your comment as SIL would have been a better anti German move. Now I see what your saying.
New phase had alot of fun stuff in it but this build phase is a big one me thinks.

Okay. Apologies again for running myself into the clock and missing the last phase. I hope that the few, short thoughts that I offered were at least a little helpful, and I hope to make up for it this phase as some of you prepare to submit your builds/disbands. Without further ado, let’s jump right in. (It gets long. Apologies.)

1904

AUSTRIA: Happy to see you at least attempting to get everyone involved in the Spring. As Dyager pointed out, it stinks that in the season when you finally attempt to get ALB into a helpful position your ally decides to turn around and stab you. The fact that you vacated TRI in the Spring says something about how you saw your relationship with Italy and Germany (that is, you covered against Russia while subsequently exposing yourself to the other two). Not “good” or “bad.” Just interesting.

I have to say, I really liked your Fall move (and the press that likely went with it). You reacted quickly after the Italian stab and coordinated with Russia and Turkey to take him out of SER. If those two are indeed your friends now, you’re in a pretty good position for the coming year against the advancing German and Frenchman (although Germany’s advance will likely be slowed due to Russia’s push West. I’m sorry to see you back down to 3 units and just your home SCs after 4 years of work, but you are in the position to turn things around with good press. More than anyone else on the board, remember to use ALL of your units. When you’ve only got three that’s especially important.

ENGLAND: I said it already, but it bears repeating. I LOVED the move to YOR. It’s that sort of scrappy defense that I was hoping to see from the beginning: doing everything that you can to slow down your opponents. More plays like that and you would likely be around for another year or two (maybe more if you could have outlasted the French/German alliance). You were caught in a tough position from the word “Go” and despite your mistakes you played admirably and you stuck it out to the end. Well played.

FRANCE: We finally see all of your units doing something! Your move to TYS was excellent and is the sort of thing one hopes to see in this sort of game. Rather than going for the SC you opt to jam up your opponent. That’s high level play. Good work. The Spring move to TUS is also a good one, threatening multiple SCs in the Spring so that your opponent has to guess where to defend in the Fall. If you had anything to do with the English move to YOR, very good press. Without that bounce, Germany could have taken EDI without your help. With that bounce, you get to offer your help for a price. You support him in EDI and he supports you elsewhere, perhaps.

Your Fall success was probably 50% your good play and 50% bad play from Italy. Getting German support into VEN was helpful (and, if it was a trade for the support into EDI, well done). You got TUN but I’m going to guess by your move to NAf that you didn’t expect that you would. Italy easily could have (and should have) kept you out of that center. I’m not even going to complain about your back-and-forth moves from PIC to BEL and back. At this point, having that one army floating around your home SCs is a necessary evil (preventing the stab) and you have to walk a fine line between defending your SCs and not angering your ally. I presume that is what is going on here. All around, a successful year for you. Before you build your two new units, ask yourself where you want to go next (remember the short-term goals I mentioned at the beginning) and what units will best get you there.

GERMANY: Again, keeping all your units involved in the Spring in excellent fashion! You played Scandinavia exactly as I expected that you would (a little too obvious, I thought…I’m surprised Russia didn’t stop it by supporting differently) and took NWY. The hang-up in YOR was probably annoying but couldn’t be helped. However your play regarding TYR may just be the best work you’ve done so far. First, you convince VEN to support you from TYR to PIE – this assures that he won’t do anything to halt French progress into the boot. Then, discerning that Russia will try to surround Austria, you bounce him out of BOH ensuring that the A/R war will remain at a stalemate (preventing your target from gaining centers).

Your play in the Fall was also good. Your moves in Scandinavia ensured that you would either take SWE or keep NWY (either way gaining a build for yourself and depriving Russia of a unit) and even after being hung up in YOR you negotiated your way into EDI (in exchange for VEN, I assume). I also really liked your retreat to BAR, which effectively has Russia’s only northern fleet land-locked. Russia’s late move into SIL will present no problem since your two new units can easily cover MUN and BER. Like France, think about your short-term goals before you build and build accordingly (though, unlike France, you also have SC defense to think about).

ITALY: This was not a good year for you, and I’m not just talking about the outcome. You made several mistakes that cost you at least one, maybe two, SCs and which will likely make you the next player eliminated from the game. First things first, unlike Dyager I really didn’t like the move to GRE. The timing, in my opinion, was all wrong. When you are under attack by the largest nation in the game (who is coming with support), why break a long-standing alliance? And in the Spring, which gives him a chance to retaliate BEFORE builds?! You should have at least waited until the Fall, which could have gotten you GRE while keeping SER. Also, agreeing to support Germany into PIE was a mistake. Even if he had gone through with it, what stops France from retreating to TUS? You find yourself in the same place you are right now. Better to use that unit to second-guess and jam up French progress (as France did with you in TYS).

Austria’s Spring moves doomed VEN (though not maliciously, I suspect). Even if he had stayed in TRI, your ill-timed stab doomed any chance you would have had of Italian support for VEN. Your move to ROM was the smart one. However your move to NAP baffles me. NAP was not being threatened – no French unit anywhere near it. You could have easily kept France out of TUN for another year, or at least bounced him out of TYS again. As it is, you lose VEN to bad luck and good F/G coordination, TUN to bad moves, SER to a poorly timed stab, and you find yourself in the unenviable position of having to issue two disband orders. Even worse, your choices for new allies are slim. Of your three neighbors, one has no use for you (France), one you just stabbed (Austria), and one has been your target from the start and is helping your recently dropped ally (Turkey). Think very hard about your disbands and your press this year if you want to have a chance of staying in this thing.

RUSSIA: I’ll be honest, I was unimpressed by your Spring moves. Your big choice in Scandinavia was how to use FIN (to support NWY or SWE) and you made the wrong choice. The other profs can feel free to correct me, but I think that Germany’s moves should have been easier to read and you could have (and maybe should have) seen the attack on NWY coming and defended properly. Consider this: in the Spring, Germany had two units that could hit either center with one that could cut support from either. A complete toss-up. I imagine this is the info you used in making your decision. But he also had his fleet in KIE. That fleet could move to BAL (as I think we all assumed it would) and make for a great Fall attack on SWE. Logic would seem to dictate then, since Germany could make a strong hit on SWE in the Fall, that he would be attacking NWY in the Spring. Maybe this wasn’t his line of reasoning or maybe I’m giving him too much credit, but I would have defended NWY with FIN.

In the south, you may have read my praise for the German bounce in BOH. For you, I think, it was an error. Your stalemate with Austria was going nowhere and Germany was breathing down your neck. Instead of pushing the fight with Austria that one more turn, why not make peace and hit SIL in the Spring? If you had kept NWY in the Spring ((as per the above discussion)) the threat of SIL to BER in the Fall would have given you a 50/50 shot at keeping both Scandinavian centers in the Fall, too.

All that being said, I think that you recovered well. You patched things up with Austria (and maybe laid the ground work for an A/R/T alliance to put some pressure on the growing F/G). You were able to keep one of the Scandinavian centers, which is a very good thing. Your Fall move to SIL would have been a much better move in the Spring and has all but dictated the German builds (for better or for worse). You should be asking yourself how you see this game ending – a solo run? A draw? Work the press based on the answer to that question and disband accordingly.

TURKEY: Was it your plan all along to take SER after helping Italy into GRE? Did Austria notice that you supported the Italian stab (if not, would it have changed his attitude towards you if he had)? So many questions that will not be answered until the end of the game but in the meantime, a very well played year for you. Although I didn’t like the Italian stab, I think your support of it was a great play for you. As you may have already seen in the thread, I assume that your move to SYR was to block an Italian move there (in the event that he continued pushing East in spite of the French threat). Probably a wise choice and it didn’t slow you down or do you any harm.

Immediately turning on Italy to take SER (with Austrian AND Russian support) was probably your best move yet, and I’m sure you were excited when you opened the game for the first time after the phase change to see that those moves were successful. After sitting at 4 units for several years you’ve finally broken out of your corner and made some progress. It may have been smarter for you to keep the army in SYR for the Fall turn (although I’m sure the move back to SMY was defensive) because that would have left SMY open for your build. As it is, whatever you decide to build will have to be placed in ANK. But that’s the worst of your problems and that’s not too bad.

---
I had thought about writing a little bit on mid-to-late game alliances vs. the leader (that is, when one person or group has taken a clear lead and the remaining players band together against them) but this is long enough already. Maybe I’ll do so as a part of my build commentary. For now, I’ll just say this – my advice to Russia goes for everyone. Ask yourself how you see this game ending for you – either a viable solo-run or a draw. Start working towards that goal with your builds/disbands and your press.

I won’t be doing a full commentary as I agree with a vast majority of what Triumvir said. I would just touch on 3 specific things :

1. GREECE. I totally can see why Triumvir did not like the Greece move, especially in the way it hurts relations with Austria. But here is my viewpoint. Serbia felt doomed to me. It was in the way of any progress Russia/Turkey/Austria may want to make. It did not serve any use to the Italian homeland defense…so it seemed to me it was going to be toast one way or another, especially if Turkey and Russia had informed him that Austria was coming for it. At least in Greece he only needs to worry about Turkey. That said, in hindsight, Triumvir may be more right and I more wrong.

2. LOGISTICS. The last year in the South Med has looked like the Atlanta Freeway with 1 inch of snow. No one can get out of each other’s way to get units moving. If Italy had coordinated better with Austria & Turkey things would look a lot different. Compare this to France’s smooth movements this Fall. He wisely didn’t chain his fleet to move to West Med because if something did bounce, everything else would succeed. A lot of Frances success this next upcoming year will be attributed to his logistics in 1904.
If Turkey had been thinking about his Autumn build, I assume he would have liked Smyrna (fleet) or Con (army) open. Instead he has to build in Ankara which will make Russia a little nervous and be of little immediate use. 1905 for Turkey will be all logistics as he shifts his units around like a Tetris board.

3. BUILDS. This is a very exciting build phase. With the fall of England and eventual fall of Italy, the remaining powers should think really hard about their disbands and builds. You are now entering the late mid-game which is where the agenda for the end game will be decided. The answers to these questions will help decide what you do.
• Am I playing for the Solo win? If so, what centers will I need to make that happen?
• Am I playing to make sure I get in on the end game Draw? If so, what do I want the makeup of that Draw to be?
• Am I playing to stop a Solo run? If so, what SC’s need to stay out of their control?

Then ask these same questions of your allies and enemies. If you answer these questions right it will make a lot of your build and disband decisions for you. A significant mistake here could cost you the game.

I would just add to Dyager's 3rd point (or rather adapt it). He mentioned the "eventual fall of Italy" and says that the others should ask themselves the questions that follow. Italy should also be asking himself those questions (although you can probably forget the idea of an Italian solo). Italy should be thinking about making himself valuable for the draw - what units he needs to keep to make himself valuable, etc. You're not out yet, Italy. But recall our early advice to England. You have to do everything you can to slow your enemy's advance. Buy yourself some time and work the press hard. You're not out yet.

This year was an absolute nightmare for I/A, and in a predictable way that could have been avoided. The fundamental thing to realize this year is that the game had not become East vs. West, F/G against the world. F and G individually only had 7 and 6 centers apiece, nowhere near a solo threat. Each power needed to be making decisions to better their own game, and F/G coming east was only a part of the equation.

For example, Turkey had essentially nothing to gain from working against France and Germany and everything to gain from F/G starting to meddle in the east. The way to beat a Lepanto is to outlast it. Now, Turkey has his 5th center and has tons of momentum going forward. It is virtually guaranteed at this point that F/G/T will be major players at the end of the game, and that will be the final draw unless A/R/I can find a way to unbalance the game somehow.

So what should Italy and Austria have done? Continue with the Lepanto.

Germany was 100% telegraphing his attack on Russia, so Austria should have been pitching Russia hard on the idea that Russia needed to fight back. As Triumvir mentioned, Austria should have been pointing out how great of a move going to Silesia would have been in the spring of this year, as it would effectively have been defending Sweden as well as potentially Venice, taking away Germany's influence on two important supply centers. You also needed to get your fleet in Albania active (the same thing I have been saying every turn). Having said that, it's not clear whether or not you were trying to do these things and simply failed to get them going diplomatically.

Italy, on the other hand, pretty clearly made some mistakes. Obviously, France was bearing down on you, which was an issue, but Turkey was just as big of an issue down the road as, left unchecked, he will be able to come take you out at his leisure if France doesn't do it first. That's why I was really hoping (which I alluded to in my previous post) that you would be able to get Turkey to agree to disband his retreating fleets last fall (three phases ago) and rebuild an army. Had he done this, you would have effectively roped him into being anti-Russian instead of anti-Italian, and you could have afforded to leave him alone. Without this concession, you really had to keep attacking him. So let's work through the year. In spring, I would absolutely have moved Ionian Sea to Tyrhennian Sea and Venice to Piedmont. The move to Tyrhennian Sea was a near guaranteed bounce (had France not moved there it would have been a huge mistake in my estimation), and, while the move to Tuscany would have been a little bit risky, it still only is "beat" by an unsupported attack on Venice, which was exceedingly unlikely. Further, you were at a point in your game where you needed home runs, not singles. Ordering passive moves at this point is akin to waiting to die. The other moves are not as clear. Full disclosure: I was hoping to see you convoy Greece to Syria so that Austria could finally get his fleet in Albania active in Greece. Had this convoy succeeded, you would have had at least one and maybe two builds coming from Turkey depending on diplomacy with Russia. Further, with good moves in Italy paired with a Spring move from Russia to Silesia you could have avoided any losses in Italy. .This would have left you with one or two builds and great position.

Of course, Turkey did move to Syria, so the convoy would have bounced (I guess I'm not tricky enough for you Turkey). I think with good diplomacy this could have been avoided, but even if not, in the fall you would have had Bulgaria if you could have convinced Russia to play ball, which seems likely given the strategic situation of the game. However, instead what happened is you made an extremely ill-timed stab of Austria, seemingly for no centers. In particular, you had no chance at keeping both Greece and Serbia, you lost any possible support around Venice, got bounced out of Ionian Sea (although that didn't end up mattering), and gave Turkey a free pass out of his box. It was bad.

Russia, like I said above, I wish you had dove into Silesia in spring as it effectively would have provided extra defense for Sweden, not to mention it packs a pretty serious offensive punch. Had you paired that with the following moves:

Norway to Skaggerack
Finland supports Sweden to Norway

you would have kept both Scandinavian centers in all cases except Denmark supports Skaggerack to Sweden. Of course, in that case, Norway is guaranteed to be safe and you could have either taken back Sweden or taken Berlin had North Sea been used on Edi as it was in the game. In all of the other cases, you have put off the 50/50 guess until the fall (worse for Germany if he wants to use North Sea to take Edi) and vastly increased your chances to keep the Scandinavian centers. Basically, you made passive moves that guaranteed you would lose one and possibly two centers when you could have instead made active moves. Remember, when units move, they exert influence over two squares, whereas when they hold, they only control one. This is a big difference and essentially why holding is rarely a good move. The other thing to say is that once you decided you were going to attack Austria and make that move to Bohemia, follow through in the fall! It was clear that Germany was going to come away from the year with a build in Scandinavia, and possibly another in Edi, so you need to keep units on the board as well. With Turkey getting going and Austria essentially useless to the fight against F/G, you needed to get reinforcements for yourself. You and Turkey likely ahd time to take all of Austria before Germany could get there with any force, which could have turned F/G vs R/T into a relatively fair fight. Now it is probably too late.

I have no real comments for F/G. They did a pretty good job overall. Germany's move to bounce in Bohemia was definitely the best possible response to Russia moving to Bohemia, so kudos on that, especially if you knew essentially for sure that Russia was moving there. In general I like France's move to North Africa this fall even though it didn't turn out to be necessary as it would have been a bummer to have not done so and then been bounced out of Tunis. I also think F/G were right not to stab this year.

Uclabb :

Regarding Turkey - Do you see evidence that Turkey has committed to the anti-F/G coalition. Seems he has left his options open at this point. The only thing I think he needs to do is make sure to close off the Ionian to French advances.

You note Russia/Turkey could have dismantled Austria relatively quickly. Could you run through the predicted moves by Russia/Turkey which could make that happen? I assume you meant in Spring 1904.

RE: Turkey- I never said he has committed to the anti-F/G coalition. There is no such thing as the anti-F/G coalition. Turkey is, and should be, playing his own game.

I think attacking Austria was a mistake in Spring 1904, but given that Russia decided to continue his attack, moving to Bohemia was completely reasonable. What I was saying is that once he attacked Austria in the spring, he needed to continue in the fall with Galicia supports Rumania to Budapest. That would have left he and Turkey virtually guaranteed to pick up at least Vienna and Greece next year.

Great commentary, thanks everyone. Bump for builds.

Too many fleets, France.

Yep, I will write something up today but my first thought was too many fleets.

A few short thoughts on builds/disbands, 194

AUSTRIA: Well done. I cannot find anything negative to say about your play this phase.

FRANCE: In my post-Fall commentary I urged all the nations to think carefully about their upcoming plans and to build or disband accordingly. I am curious what plans you have that require SIX fleets. I understand the impulse to outnumber your opponents in the water, however you must understand that the Mediterranean is a bottle-neck and at a certain point, your superior numbers stop counting. Just consider ION. Italy has one fleet holding that waterway and one fleet (NAP) available to support (two if you count the Austrian fleet in ADR, but it will probably be busy elsewhere). Those 2 fleets will be able to hold ION against your 6 until you can cut support in NAP from elsewhere (and by then, Turkey will have at least one fleet in position to further support ION). What will end up happening is that you will have a few fleets in the front seeing all the action and a few in the back standing still (and you know how I feel about that).

GERMANY: Your builds were all but decided by Russia’s move to SIL. Luckily for you, the builds he dictated are probably the builds you would have preferred anyways. Two new armies for pushing East. An extra fleet to wrap up Scandinavia might have been nice, but I know someone who has a few fleets he won’t be using. Maybe you two could work something out.

ITALY: I’m hoping that your disbands are indicative or LOTS of press with your Eastern neighbors and an agreement to help stop France from advancing any further into the Mediterranean. If that is the case, good job. If not, you’re the next one out. I’m hoping it’s the former. I always like to see Italy succeed (probably because I suck so much as Italy).

RUSSIA: Not a surprising disband. Really it’s the only one that makes your late push into Germany even quasi-sustainable. You can’t disband in the north or you lose territory. You can’t disband WAR or SIL because your move to SIL would surely prompt German army builds in the East (which it did). Disbanding your only other “free” army (RUM) would have been counter-productive. SEV is the only move that makes sense. All that said, you’re in a pretty bad position right now. Germany is probably the strongest nation on the board at this point and he has your number. You could go down before Italy if you aren’t careful.

TURKEY: I’m still wishing that you had found a way to keep SMY empty for a build this season. At this point I think the army build was fine. If you had kept SMY open I might have preferred to see a fleet (but I’m not 100% sure on that). If France’s 6 fleets and 3 armies betray his intentions of pushing hard into the Med, it seems that your 2 fleets and 3 armies suggest that you have ill-intentions towards one of your immediate neighbors. Could be reading that wrong but I don’t see another immediate use for that 3rd army at the moment. Looking forward to the other profs’ thoughts and to what you do in the coming year.

So before the build phase I gave a brief warning that this was a critical build phase and every build/disband you do needs to be focused towards the your end game goals. Some did well, some did not.

FRANCE : Fleets are awesome and proper use of fleets win Diplomacy games. However, there are only so many SC’s which can be gotten by your fleets and you have ceded the northern ones to Germany thus far.
I think I know what happened to you. You got two builds which you didn’t expect. Any armies you build would freak out Germany (and with good reason) and you and Germany are BFF’s forever right? So you made two fleets which offends no one (and with good reason).
I fear you may have tossed away your shot at a solo attempt but more on that in a separate post.

GERMANY : As Triumvir stated, your build was pre-decided for you by the Russian assault. I had warned you a year or so ago about having too many unprotected SC’s and unsupported units especially as it related to France. You weathered that storm well, using diplomacy and offering moves of mutual benefit.
I am not sure if you realized the danger you were in. Fall 1904 and this build phase was a critical window for you because if France had decided that was a good time to go after your SC’s you may have been in some trouble. Now France’s build seems to indicate he has no interest in a land war with you. Good job on whatever relationship building you did to make that happen.

RUSSIA : Sev really was the only good option I saw for a disband. I hope you have been in constant contact with France and pointing out opportunities for him to make a run at Germany. Had he known about your move into Silencia/Warsaw, he may have been swayed to move into Holland and get 3 builds (and limited Germany to 1). But his 2 fleet build was as bad for you as it will be for France as he is in no position to really drive at Germany.
Turkey appears to be your only avenue for progress but is also a possible threat (Sevaspol). Talk to him and if he is open to working together come up with a plan for 1905. Your actions of 1904 do not necessarily have to dictate what you do in 1905.
I am most curious about your coming year because I see a lot of opportunities and dangers for you and how you navigate it will likely decide your fate in this game.

ITALY : You made the right disband! Congratulations! You are at the mercy of Turkey but his unit positions are such he kind of needs you to hold on for a while longer. As with Russia, France’s fleet builds are bad for you because it makes him less scary from a solo standpoint, and your best lifeline was screaming about how important your SC’s are to stopping him. I don’t see how you improve your situation but this game has surprised me more than once.

TURKEY : WOW, what a difference 1 year makes? I think you have a plan for where you want to be in the next year, now you need to just get there logistically. I watched you in the last SOW game and I have confidence you will get it all cleaned up down there.

AUSTRIA : Your disband happened in the spring so it is what it is. Think about France’s builds and decide what that means for whatever deals and plans you made in Fall 1904. I am not privy to how it came to be that Russia and you pulled back and you both supported Turkey into Serbia but you are in the middle of a lot of people so always re-evaluate and make sure you are ok.

I brief interlude before this phases commentary :
TVrocks asked a question earlier "finally, this doesn't have anything to do with the game, but it could be useful knowledge for the future, what are probably the ten most important squares? (land or sea) ".

Unfortunately that is a bit of a broad question, but there are certain territories which are understood to be critical because they cross what are called Stalemate Lines the most common of which runs diagonally through St Pete/Munich/Berlin/Tunis. Depending on which country you are playing, you usually need some mix of these four SC's (and those SC's behind them) to get to 18.

So now we come to this SOW study group. Before the build phase, I commented that I thought people should begin to consider their end game goals and the goals of their allies/enemies. I will use France as the current case study.

Lets assume for a moment that France had aspirations to win this game with 18 SC's and gain the respect, glory and naked chicks that such a win would undoubtedly bring.
Where will his 18 SC's come from? Given his unit makeup prior to the 1904 build phase I would surmise it would be something like :

9 currently owned, Naples, Rome, London, Edinborough, Holland, Munich, Kiel, Denmark, Norway. There can be some variation to this as the game progresses but I find this to be the most likely scenerio.

"BUT WAIT! 6 of those centers belong to his good friend Germany! Are you suggesting what I think you are?"
Yes, Yes I am. If France wants to someday go for 18 SC's he needs to go through Germany. He certainly isnt going to pick up 7 SC's from Austria and Turkey. Besides the traffic jam which will be the Ionian Sea, Germany will likely not be satisfied with just Scandanavia.

So, assuming France wants to win, he will at some point need to go through Germany, thats fact not fiction, and the groundwork for that would be laid on that build phase (or conceivably could have been initiated in Autumn 1904 and followed through in the build phase, although he didnt know he would get both Italian centers).
So that fleet build in Marseilles tells me, that France at least, intends to draw the game with Germany or he foolishly thinks he will be the first France to ever occupy the Turkish Peninsula in its entirety.

The question that's really out there now is : Does Germany intend the same? At the very least he should do an analysis like I did above, just so he is aware of where he is in relation to that goal.

Bump

Bump for Spring Phase.

Waiting for retreats (one specifically).