Octavious - I don't like spending too much time on opinion polls, but I'd be interested to see if labour are actually doing much better in England than the headline figures suggest. If lab and cons had around 33% each before SNP surge, if lab still have 33% now it mean that English vote must have increased.

I agree libdems will do better than expected, they are very good at resource targeting, but not sure how that helps lib/con coalition chances to be honest. A LibDem hold in a seat the Tories were targeting doesn't add to the overall lib/con coalition numbers.

@ Maniac

It's a good point, but the polls in individual constituencies don't seem to point to that. There are also quite a few traditionally Tory huge majority constituencies which are now modest Tory majorities with decent splodges of UKIP.

Still, we will know soon enough.

As an amusing aside to highlight regional differences, there was much enthusiasm for trying those "I side with" quizzes at work on Friday (public sector, so nothing gets done on Friday afternoons ;) ). Amazingly I was one of the most Left Wing people there. You have to love the South West.

I guess my point was mostly not serious, but all your suggestions ignore the mathematics of a Lab/Con alliance, and for all their differences, i can't see the two having a hard time ruling together - at least for a year or two, perhaps with an EU referendum and then disagreeing on something and calling a new election instead...

Of course neither is planning to need the other right now - though if they announced a deal it would blow almost all the other parties out of the water (SNP, Plaid Cymr (sp?) SF and DUP aside...)

@ Ora

I'm unclear as to the advantages of a formal coalition over a Labour or Tory minority government. And both sides will be terrified of adding more fuel to the "the big parties are all the same" fire

@Octavious - i'm sure you are right, similar to the reason Ireland's two main centre right parties will not form a coalition if they can avoid it...

But the numbers make sense... I mean if Labour has ruled out a SNP coalition, but thu haven't ruled out a Lab-Con coalition... (No i don't actually think this will happen, but it would be great)

Anticipated scenario.
Tory largest party unable to attain majority even with LD & UU support.
Nonetheless Cameron invited to form government
Queen's Speech voted down.
Ed Miliband invited to form a government.
Queen's Speech voted through with support of SNP.
Construction starts on Welsh coast in preparation for a new base for Polaris.

@Octavious, Maniac

I don't look at the polls, I look at electionforecast.co.uk. It looks at it seat-by-seat with a detailed formula (it's endorsed by Nate Silver), and it also provides 90% uncertainty intervals, which are wide enough to give either big party a much better or worse shot at a coalition government or moderately stable minority government, but only a 1% chance at a majority one.

Currently, the site says this:

Con - 278 (range: 247-311)
Lab -- 271 (range: 239-304)
SNP -- 50 (range: 40-56)
Lib ---- 26 (range: 19-33)
Others: DUP 9, Plaid 4, SDLP 2, UKIP 1, Greens 1, Other 8 (presumably Sinn Fein 5, UUP 1, Ind 1, and the Speaker)

Based on those numbers, the Conservatives would, alone, fall 45 short of a majority. The Lib Dems get them to 304, still 19 short. The DUP will support either one; that's to 313, 10 short. Presumably UKIP and UUP will pick up two of those--now it's to 315, still 8 short. Could that easily change with just a slight swing up along that uncertainty range? Of course! But at the moment, it seems less than likely for a Conservative government.

Now to Miliband's chances. 271 is 52 short of a majority. If we add the SDLP, DUP, and Greens, that's 283, still 40 short. The SNP could make that up even at the lower end of their uncertainty range, and they probably will, but given Miliband's remark's earlier, it will be on a highly unstable, vote-by-vote basis. Perhaps they'll have a chance at a Lib-Lab pact reminiscent of 1977.

TL;DR: Tory minority government possible, and a Labour minority government without the SNP also possible. Both would require the Lib Dems approval. But it seems like the most likely scenario is an unstable Labour government reluctantly with SNP backing.

@Orathic: Plaid Cymru. Welsh is an interesting language.

I think what Labour is banking on is getting SNP support for 'popular stuff' and Tory support for 'unpopular stuff'. When they propose repealing bedroom tax, they will have support from SNP, green(s), SDLP, etc and when they propose non-protected departmental savings (cuts) the Tories will support them, or abstain which means SNP/libdems/greens/sdlp/plaid won't have enough combined votes to vote the labour minority govt down. Same will apply to Trident.

The minor parties will find it difficult to make a stand, but they could be so pissed off that they just stop supporting Labour which will mean they become impotent and hand the Tories the next election.

Euro referendum won't happen and maybe UKIP supporters next time around will have to vote Tory.

I predict that there will be a vote on the 7th of May. Prove me wrong.

Maniac, do you remember the terms of our UKIP bet?

Damn it, why did Nigee have to go and get silenced?

No what terms Octavious? I know you think they will only get 1 or 2 seats, and I think more, but can't remember details...

When did Nigee get silenced btw?

About half a year ago. He was silenced permanently for really annoying the mods.

I bet UKIP gets a higher than expected turnout.

http://goo.gl/forms/BUpnhQFuyf

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uUpldj4zUQoVHAVM_EnB-2797lOU7bQh0yZrh512IRs/edit#gid=1050427600

Let's see how representative of the population WebDip is!

Please only vote if you actually voted in the UK Election.

I think the SNP won't do as well in Scotland, just as the Yes campaign was over-exaggerated. And I think the Lib Dems won't suffer as badly as people think. Percentage points have never been an accurate reflection of Lib Dem seats.

So, I predict a Labour-Liberal coalition.

I expect Labour will eventually make a deal with the SNP, maybe with the Lib Dems depending on if they need to, or if they're that afraid of the SNP. They could always look at tiny parties, like Plaid, SDLP, or Greens. Labour+SNP+some tiny parties should cut it. SNP doesn't necessarily have to be in a coalition, but they will support Labour eventually, and I don't expect Labour to coalition with Lib Dems unless they need to.

I think Labour would much rather be in coalition with the Lib Dems than the SNP - the SNP are just too unpopular in England.

Are they? My impression was that the SNP were ridiculously popular, to the extent that if they had stood in England they may well have displaced Labour.

I think if that were the case, the Tories wouldn't be using Alex Salmond as a boogeyman.

Tories try to appeal to the type of person that derides Scots to the extent that they view them as nothing more than a colony. Of course they will try to use Alex Salmond as a boogeyman.

One man's bogeyman is another man's left wing icon.

The argument that the SNP want to enrich the Scots at the expense of the English has quite a lot of traction.

@ Phil

Really? He's a bogeyman because he's a left winger and he's anti-Britain, which makes him about as opposite to Tory ideology as you can get

@wjessop

No, the SNP will be much more successful than the yes campaign. 45% in a national referendum is a loss, but in a FPTP system with multiple parties getting a share of the vote, 45% can win you almost every seat. I agree with you about the Lib Dems, but forecasts like the one I used (electionforecast.co.uk) try to reflect that already.

I predict a Labour minority government with no official coalition, just unstable support from the SNP. Lab+SNP+DUP+Plaid+SDLP+Greens will probably be enough. If not, will see a Tory minority government propped up by the Lib Dems, DUP, and UKIP.

The DUP shouldn't be allowed anywhere near government. Having seen how they negotiate in NI, the fee they'd exact would be horrible. Lab/Lib, possibly with support from SDLP/Plaid/Greens on a minority basis, is what I expect. More ConDem'ing isn't impossible though.

Funny thing:
The UK elections might quite influence Polish presidential elections on Sunday.
So there are those two extremely weird candidates, currently 3rd and 4th though the order keeps changing from poll to poll.
Janusz Korwin-Mikke, a crazy libertarian with lots of conspiracy theories
Paweł Kukiz, who, for reals, doesn't have any program at all, apart from introduction of single-member districts (as opposed to proportional voting we have right now in most elections). He believes that every political problem in Poland will be solved by this single change.
So, they were allied since the beginning, but during the last debate Korwin-Mikke said, quite wisely, that he doesn't support single-member districts any more, because they will kill small parties and lead to two-parties system. He was then attacked in TV and social media by Kukiz, who called him a liar etc. Korwin-Mikke than announced, that to show how bad SMD is he made a bet: if UKIP get's more than 20 PMs he will withdraw his candidature.
To sum up: I hope UKIP fails so terribly for a whole new reason right now.

If there is one thing that is certain, it is that UKIP won't get more than 20 PMs.

I'm not sure I follow his point, though. Why does that show how bad SMD is?