Fall 1901
This is the season that really identifies treachery. We typically see the alliances that take place in the early game prior to the dissolving of the two spheres. This is equally the case here. We see evidence of the first betrayals and where diplomatic negotiations fall short. There were some unfortunate mistakes out of some countries, and there were some good moves by others, even among those moves that didn't succeed. I'll cover each in turn.
The West
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This was truly the season of missed opportunities. I expected to see one of two scenarios play out, and neither did. Instead, what did play out was a bit disappointing. The first of the missed opportunities was the Western Triple. Generally, I avoid the WT like the plague. Things work well initially, but quickly turn sour, and it often seems that for those that get targeted, get pummeled worse than if they were attacked right out of the gate. However, if there was a time for a WT, this would have been it. Russia was weakened and saw no builds, Austria saw only one, Italy pushed far east, and Turkey has an incredibly strong start. Each of these is ideal for the formation of a WT. In fact, I had posted some vague thoughts about possibly seeing one in my Spring commentary, hinting at the fact that either England or Germany would control Belgium. One issue that newer players have is missing very key points to make necessary changes, scrap an old game plan, even one that may not have developed, in lieu of a much more favorable one. Now, I also don't know the dynamic of the West, and it could be that the three nations simply don't get along. As it is, it's clear that, not only is there no WT, there's also no cohesion among alliance partners. I will also say, that any WT should form in 1901, and have made it's move by now. To start up a Triple in 02 is a bit slow and easily countered. I recommend all players take time and talk to their TA's about how to identify various opportunities, specifically what it takes to really run a Western Triple, how to get it going, benefits, drawbacks, and what you want to see out of the Eastern countries to have an optimal WT.
Germany--I have Germany at #1, although this is a loose top spot. I really had a tough time digesting anything I saw this season. Your top spot simply comes from not having any part in the Bel bounce, which puts you in a bit more of the driver's seat...but only a bit. Part of what would have made the WT so great is that Russia would have not had a southern build and you could (and did) bounce him out of Swe. However, not seeing the Triple, I'm curious about the bounce. I would definitely not have made the bounce. Germany really has to have a reason to keep Russia out of Swe, and not only is it hard for me to find a solid reason, but even more, I would have intentionally let him have it as a means of gaining an ally. When I play, I often look to work with underdogs, especially in the potential 2-on-2 that we sort of see in the East. If you do a series of nice things that cause you no trouble early on, it can net you a solid ally later on. I have found that the people that are more likely to stick with you as an ally are those that don't have one early on. Had Russia gotten a build, he could have later supported you into key areas as repayment for your deed in future seasons. Plus, if things continued to go sour, he's more likely to throw you his centers at his downfall. So, FYI, really think about WHY you're wanting to bounce Russia, and if the ultimate reason is "because I can", then you probably shouldn't do it. Also, if Austria asked you to do it, I still wouldn't necessarily go along with it because a strong Austria is almost as dangerous as a strong Russia around 1906. Really, Turkey and Italy don't have much against Germany at any point in the game, and it's often better for you to slow the East down a bit, and allowing a 0-build Russia to have Swe would do just that. The last thing you want is for the East to eliminate a player by 1903 or 04 and turn toward your sphere before you all are ready to face the threat. Finally, let's assume the worst and you're facing a E/F against you. Allowing Russia the build would counteract such an alliance by contributing another unit (Russian fleet) to your aid if you work your diplomacy well enough. I always try to plan for various events to ensure that I come out on top simply by using my other neighbors in the other sphere to work in my favor. If I'm playing as Turkey and Russia seems to be getting the best of me, I try to talk to England and Germany early on and put together a E/G if I can so that it can help keep Russia in check. If I'm playing Germany, and I fear a E/F, I talk to Russia and offer him the moon in return for aid. This aid frequently comes in helping me obtain an alliance of my choice, or simply keeping an opponent, or even an ally at bay.
That aside, I also think that the support into Hol was less than useless. You of all countries had a lot to say about Belgium. Bel SHOULD have gone to someone this season, and you could have easily purchased an ally with a simple support issued in their favor. The last thing you want is to deny your team a build because picking up the build a year later will slow down progress. Speed should be the number one concern on your plate. In fact, you could have used Bel as a bartering tool to get you the promise of an extra center in your enemy's turf. After all, Belgium is an easy center to take later on in the game, but places more inland or isolated like Par, Bre or Edi/Lon can be tougher to take, especially when you have units on the island and nearby. After all, Belgium is bordered by 6 zones while Par and Lon are bordered by 4, so you can simply make a promise to give someone Belgium now and you take one of the other home centers of a foe when you can, and simply steal them once you have Belgium essentially surrounded.
In the end, I do think you have a pretty solid spot, and it's hard for me to see things going badly for you anytime soon. For builds, I suspect that we will see a fleet in Kiel and an army in your other center, leaning slightly more toward Munich.
England--I see you as the second spot in the West because Russia is so weakened. The German bounce in Swe seems to speak more in your favor than anything else, although I think the pooch was screwed by no one taking Belgium. If there's a E/F alliance, then someone should have gotten the center as a means of working Germany quicker. If there's a E/G, then you should have pushed hard to talk Germany into allowing you to convoy your army there and agreeing to support him into Swe as a return favor.
Now, the best thing you could have done is convoy the army, which you successfully did. That is the first step toward progress. I'm still curious to see how this season will play out. Other than that, there's not much else I can say about your moves. As a build prediction, I'm guessing A Edi or F Lvp.
France--As much as you were first last season in an arbitrary fashion, today you're last under the same set of circumstances. I don't believe that your situation is perilous by any means, and I put you last simply because you don't have the same set of circumstantial graces that E or G have, in that a weak Russia does nothing positive for you, and in fact, a weak Russia is a bit worse. Barring the presence of a WT, I think your position is fair. Your moves this season were reasonable, although, as I posted for Germany and England, I believe there is more that could have been done about Belgium. Traditionally, if I'm going to consider bouncing in Belgium, it will be because two of the three of us have access to the center, and I'm working with someone paranoid that cannot take it for themselves. I cannot stress enough how an alliance should not forego a build for the team. Belgium was definitely a bargaining chip that no country took advantage of. The fact that England was willing to move in with a fleet would have helped your cause because it gives you more control over areas that cannot be reached by sea. I felt like seeing an empty Belgium was an indication that something major was left undiscussed this last season. It almost seems to indicate that no real alliance group was formed this season and everyone was lackadaisical about putting together a solid structure or commitment in any form, instead deferring a decision until S02. Instead, we see that the east is moving very quickly, and depending on how things shape up, some Western countries could be out in the long run. Anyhow, I don't mean to beat a dead horse. The remainder of your moves were fine, and I suspect that we will see the traditional F Bre, A Par.
The East
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The East looked far nicer than the West. There was some solid cohesion between Austria and Turkey, but there are still some awkward situations that will throw a wrench in the gears. It's evident that some countries will perform better than others, and I can already see some other issues that will develop more clearly in the years to come. In fact, in terms of pure movement, I liked almost everything I saw, even though things didn't transpire in favor of all the nations.
Turkey--As the only country with 2 builds this year, you're the clear frontrunner. In fact, the standard Turkey is more than content gaining just one center this year, and such 1-build openings still have strong results dependent on the diplomacy that backs up the moves. I also love that you have a solid ally in Austria, no Russian in Armenia, and clear room for expansion in the coming seasons. In fact, your situation is so sweet that I don't see anything that could really hurt what you have going as long as you take the necessary arrangements to keep it going. I would liken your situation to a guy sitting at home eating tortilla chips with that nice white Mexican cheese dip. It's a bowlful of happiness and the only thing that ruins it is running out of dip. For builds, I'm predicting F Smy, A Ank.
Italy--Mmm, gotta love that convoy to Greece. Ideally, it gives you that build you were looking for and if you can pick up Tunis without losing ground, it puts you over the 4 center hump that Italy faces when moving Lepanto. The hold in Ven went well enough, but your biggest downfall is a weak Russia. Ideally, if you're going to Lepanto, it's going to be because you have an Austrian ally, which I don't see here. He seems more committed to Turkey. Now, you can still make the Lepanto work, but you still have to have a goal. Bypassing 4 centers is great, but the problem for Italy isn't lack of growth, it's having a clear choice of where to go after you get your fourth. For you, that same problem is something you'll face, but you'll do it at 5 centers. When I spoke of an awkwardness in the East, it was a reference to your situation, and no sir, I don't like it. As it stands, we have a A/T on the map. This puts Italy in a strange position. Normally, you would simply opt to help Russia, but that foundation hasn't been set because you would do so by attacking Austria. After all, there's nothing you have to gain by attacking Russia--you can't even reach him. So while A and T eat Russia alive, you have to either decide to hit Austria in the back with a butter knife, waste a solid year trying to move on Turkey and leave behind a lone army in the process, or swing West against France with an army in Gre. In fact, no option is inherently appealing unless you have some backing somewhere. Now, I hope that you gained permission from Austria or Turkey to have Gre because if you simply took it because you knew it would be available, you probably won't have it long because after Russia is reduced, there's going to be an alliance somewhere, and if you're operating by yourself, that alliance probably doesn't include you. For this point, you need to make every effort to ensure that YOU are the one that has the ally as well as a future growth plan. For builds, I'm going to predict either A Rom or F Nap.
Austria--Your position isn't too bad. It has a lot of merit, but you still have an edgy situation. To your benefit, you not only have a build, but you've also got a strong ally . To the negative, you have an angry, fearful Russian in Gal, an Italian army (not a fleet) in Gre, two open centers, and only one build to fill the vacancies. This means that you're likely to play a bit of defense mixed with your offense until things settle in a year or two. I'm still also curious about the movements to your West. You've got a fleet in the ADR and an army in Tri. This begs the question as to what you intend to do with the units. My guess is that you want the fleet in open water and you didn't trust Italy enough to not hit Tri so you moved an army there to cover your butt. This doesn't put you in a great spot because it can send a wrong impression to a guy who has a potential Russian ally with you being flanked by the both. As great as it is having a Turkish ally, that greatness isn't helpful if you're being attacked by two guys, because Turkey is the real benefactor in your present situation. I can't say for sure how things will turn out because much of it depends on the diplomacy going on behind the scenes, although you'll have to tread with care. For builds, I'm going out on a limb to say....maybe an army? I'd lean on Vie.
Russia--Ouch and double ouch. Last season was mediocre, but this season straight up sucked. It's never a good thing for Russia to not gain any builds. I have found that when I play Russia, I either do really well, or a go down in a ball of flame. From the outset, this appears to be the latter. All is not lost, however, as you still have some options available for you. I actually didn't dislike anything I saw from you. In fact, if there is a bright spot in this pit of gloom, it's that there's a bored Italian and an army in Gal. People have done a lot more with a lot less, although I caution you to put a lot of thought into your moves, learn to cut losses where you can, and consider future events.
Yankee Gays waste good vodka ..... how queer is that?
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