So, how will the critiquing work? All PMs? Or open discussion here?

Bump same as raz

And the game begins!

Before I jump right into commentary I want to toss out a few general rules that I follow as a player in full-press games.

1. Talk early and often – As soon as the phase changes, look at the map and start talking about what needs to be done for next phrase, plans that need to be changed, perhaps alliances that need to be changed. You have 2-days for press. Use as much of that time as you can.
2. Talk to everyone – I know this gets said pretty often, but it’s true. Just because you’re playing England doesn’t mean you shouldn’t talk to Turkey. True, your interests may not be the same in 1901, but who’s to say they won’t be at a later point in the game? Better to have started that relationship early in the press than to have to start it mid-game.
3. Have a long-term goal – The point of the game is to get to 18 centers. You should have a pretty good idea at the beginning of the game where those 18 centers are. Don’t stick too doggedly to that plan (a lesson learned in the last SoW) or you could get into trouble. But having the plan as a framework can help you out in the long run.
4. Have short-term goals – You should know where your 18 centers are. You should also know where your first 5 are. Then your first 8. Then your first 10-12. Using Austria as an example, you might say that your first goal is to get SER and GRE. Your next goal is to control all the Balkans. Your next goal is to eliminate Turkey, etc. ((Don’t take that as specific advice for this game. That’s just an example.)) If your 18-center goal is the big picture, these short-term goals are the details that get it done.
5. Don’t think a stab means the end of a relationship – Fact: you are going to get stabbed. How you respond to that stab can change the outcome of your game as much as the stab itself. Sometimes burning a bridge after an early stab can hurt your chances of getting a draw (because the person whose help you need at the end is the same guy you called a lot of unsavory names in 1902). Just because you can’t trust someone doesn’t mean you can’t work with them.

That’s probably enough for now. Now onto the commentary. We’ll take a look at things one nation at a time (taken alphabetically).

SPRING 1901

Austria: Looks like a rough start for you. My guess is that you agreed on a dmz in GAL with Russia. Not sure what you were expecting from Italy but I presume it wasn’t a move into TRI. It was a fairly solid opening as far as orders go, though in hindsight I’ll be you’re kicking yourself for not bouncing one of your neighbors with VIE. Get on the press and work it hard.

England: A standard northern opening. I assume that the dmz in ENG was an agreement reached in your press with France. In general it seems like your Western neighbors are playing nice but there’s bad news coming out of the East with Russia opening north with MOS. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

France: Not every day that I see France make that strong a push for BEL in 1901 (or were you expecting a bounce in BUR?). With Russia’s northern opening it seems that BEL will be yours for the taking. I wonder if you had to break any agreements to get that position. Time will tell. Italy seems completely disinterested in you, so you should be able to pick up the second Iberian center next year without a problem.

Germany: Things are looking good so far, unless you and France had declared BUR a dmz. Even so, you can defend all your home centers and will get your two standard builds, barring any unforeseen circumstances. You’re in a good position, with lots of diplomatic leverage going into the Fall.

Italy: The move into TRI is a bold one that may or may not pay off, depending on what Austria and Russia do in the Fall. If your move was coordinated with another Eastern ally then I’d say you’re in a pretty good spot. If not, you may be in some trouble if you don’t find that ally quickly.

Russia: The first thing that came to mind when I say your opening was “stretched thin.” You are in the position to harass England in NWY, and to harass Austria from GAL. The problem is that there is a lot of daylight between your units. You have gone from having the early unit advantage (4 to everyone else’s 3) to being at a disadvantage in two theaters (2 to their 3 in the south, likewise in the north). Some builds would help.

Turkey: Turkey and England are both fairly dull to play in 1901, having really only a couple viable openings. You chose the standard opening and it’s too early to see what will come of it. I presume the stand-off in BLA was agreed upon. Going into the Fall you may have some good options if you work the press right.

A few interesting developments but, unsurprisingly, there wasn’t too much to write about in the Spring. However the openings promise so real interesting developments going into the first Fall/Build phases. Looking forward to it.

Personally, I have never looked at the russian "4" as an advantage, since it's offset by sheer size of opening territory and a near automatic 2-front war.

@ Triumvir:
I'm not sure what you are implying with your general rule #3 (crosses arms in a huff) :D

Since Triumvir already assessed the specific moves of each country I would like to open with discussing early game bounces. It is common in higher end games for neighbors to discuss an agreed upon bounce in certain areas.

An agreed bounce does three things. 1. Allows you to see the opening moves of others around you before you commit to one alliance or another and 2. Shows the honesty of the press you are getting without risking strategic positon. 3. Leaves others around you unsure if you are fighting with eachother or not.

I am not saying a bounce in these areas should always happen, but its something which should be seriously considered and often is not because people view it as a wasted turn.

Lets take each bounce location in this game :

Black Sea - The most famous of all bounces. In this game, as with a majority of games, Turkey and Russia bounced the Black Sea. This happens so often that it means nothing to anyone who reads the board. HOWEVER, imagine if the bounce hadnt happened, and Turkeys Fleet had moved westward? Everyone would be talking about the dreaded Juggernaut alliance between Russia and Turkey, turning the entire board against them.

Burgundy - Always a source of contention with Germany and France as it borders so many SC's. A French army here exposes Munich and guarantees France Belgium barring English involvement or a lucky guess by Germany. A German army there exposes Paris and Marseilles. Any army in either area virtually guarantees the two countries are locked in war immediately (much to the happiness of England). A bounce would allow each side a round to assess if that war is in their best interest, while leaving England unsure if the conflict is real.

Galacia - Lets look at how better Austria would be if there was a bounce in Galacia. Vienna/Warsaw bounce Galacia. The Russian army would have been in Warsaw twiddling his thumbs. Vienna would be in a position to retake Trieste should Italy prove entirely untrustworthy. The world would still be wondering if Russia/Austria were really at war.

English Channel - Less popular that it used to be (or so people tell me). Neither wants the others fleet to be sitting in that channel as its tough to dislodge. England threatening bounce in the EC forces France to cover it and costs France an SC, and costs England the North Sea (and risks a Russian bounce in Norway). I notice that France is always the first to offer "Lets go our separate ways" in games and thats for good reason.

So in this game -
* France avoiding the two bounces leaves him in amazing position compared to his neighbors.
* Austria avoiding bouncing Galacia has cost him his strategioc position in all sides.
* Russia/Turkey bouncing leaves the world wondering whats going on down there.
* Germany not bouncing may cost him Munich or Belgium and position.
* England not bouncing France leaves Russia/Germany/Italy discussing the apparent English/French alliance and how they can stop it.
* Russia not bouncing Galacia seems awesome on the surface, but wouldn't he rather have known England's move BEFORE he picked a fight with Austria?

Quick question. Are the players doing EoGs for this Study Group?

can observers ask questions of the professors, or is this thread just for prof commentary?

Questions are welcome, but please avoid leading questions that concern coming phases. (eg. "Don't you think it would be best for France to do X next turn...")

Hey Triumvir I have a question for the group that has been bothering me.

I've heard from a lot of veteran players here on the site to always continue press with nations under any and all circumstances. Even a nation that you have just stabbed. Now it may just be that I am not a gracious winner or something. But I have had two separate games now where I have attempted to continue talking to a person post-stab and honestly it seems more like all it does it make things worse.

People seem to always take stabs extremely personally and the more I talk to them about the fact that it was a Geo-political decision based off of an available opportunity...yea they don't seem to like that much at all.

So basically I am asking how can you continue such a relationship? Or is it better just to write it off? Cause "It was nothing personal" never seems to work.

IMO it's a reflection of the other person more than anything... It could be emotional, or it could be an intentional act to try and make you feel guilty. Stabs are part of the game.

Sometimes you just can't avoid them being nasty, but the way I look at it is if you stabbed them, they're going to hate you. So talking can't make it worse unless you antagonize them.

But maybe try talking about something other than the stab. "I know we're at odds given the stab. What do you think of Germany's movements?"

Or maybe try to bond by talking about a time you got stabbed unexpectedly.

A question I have is, how likely in this situation is a Key Lepanto? Italy's moves read like it could be possible, with Austria planning to take Rumania.

Thoughts?

Chaqa, I think thats a question left til the next phase plays out as it could lead to a discussion or advice on this phases moves. Good thought and one that I had as well.

@LordDavion - That is a good question and a difficult situation. When you are the person getting stabbed, continuing press is actually much easier. My above suggestion was, essentially, to not take stabs too personally and attempt to keep the relationship alive. That is not always easy if you are the person who carried out the stab. If your plan only includes taking a few of a nation's centers and not all of them (which does happen occasionally) telling them so can dull the pain of a stab. Otherwise, your best option, as Shield suggested, is simply not to antagonize them and to respond to their press - even their hateful and venomous press - with some dignity. They may come back around.

@Chaqa - Like dyager, it was a thought that occurred to me but I don't want to influence the Fall moves by commenting. Look for comments on that possibility after the current phase ends.

One of the most effective responses to a stab I've experienced was to crack a joke. It definitely made me consider switching back again. Meeting overtures from a stabber with nastiness or Stony silence throws away an opportunity

I just got stabbed in a gunboat game. I haven't talked to him since.

Bump

Bump to builds

Thanks for the bump. I'll comment this afternoon.

Fall 1901 – Alliances Beginning to Form

The second phase, as is typical, reveals much more about the board than the Spring. We learn a great deal more about who is working with whom (or at least who is playing nice for the time being). Let’s have a look.

Moves in the West seem to indicate that England and France have joined forces against Germany. Perhaps more correctly, it seems that Germany has a poor relationship with both England and France. He moved RUH back to MUN to block against a French attack while France took BEL unhindered. Germany also attacked NTH, cutting England’s support into NWY. So, while England and France have done nothing particularly to help one another, they have both avoided ENG for a second time and Germany seems to dislike them both. A match made in Diplomacy heaven.

If Germany has no friends in the West, I would venture to say that he has made a friend of Russia. Given Russia’s northern opening it is notable that Germany chose to cut English support into NWY (allowing for a Russian bounce in that center, although it didn’t happen) instead of choosing to bounce Russia out of SWE. The Russian move to FIN suggests the possibility of a northern (pro-German, anti-English?) build.

((I should also note in the West that France’s move to SPA(nc) suggests to me a friendly attitude towards Italy – or perhaps just a hesitation to get involved with an Eastern power.))

Things in the East are not as cut and dry. The Russian move to GAL last season, which we thought might have been very anti-Austrian, has not proven so to this point. Likewise, the Italian move to TRI seems to have been a part of a modified Key Lepanto (as was suggested by someone in the thread). Also, BLA remains vacant, with both Russia and Turkey avoiding it this year (as opposed to their stand-off last year). All this adds up to a fairly confused political landscape. This is how it looks to me (though I could be wrong):

Italy is friends with Austria and is anti-Turk.
Austria is friends with Italy (and maybe Russia) and is also anti-Turk.
Russia is friendly with Austria (perhaps) and also with Germany (perhaps) and also with Turkey (perhaps).
Turkey doesn’t have a friend in the world (or maybe Russia).

Builds will help clear up this picture (or they may make it even more fuzzy). Once the build phase is over we’ll comment on some reasonable expectations for 1902.

Alot of interesting and surprising things happening this turn. I will rank them in order of my interest.

Austria/Italy - Key Lepanto it is. I am personally not a fan of this opening because I feel it runs a very tight wire of trust between Austria and Italy. How Italy resisted the urge to stay in Trieste and secure 2 builds is beyond me....especially given Russia's move to Galacia. So many things can go wrong with this opening and I am not entirely convinced it will yield results but I am looking forward to being surprised.

Austria/Russia - Talk about walking a tightrope of trust. It would appear that the Galacia move was a ploy of sorts (or perhaps adept diplomacy after Spring 1901 - hard to know for sure from the outside). I fully expected the Russian and Italian to work out a plan to carve up Austria. I expected SEV----> Rumania and Trieste S Galacia----> Vienna. Italy with 2 builds, Russia with 3. Austria with 0. But lacking Italian support and perhaps wanting to avoid a 2 front war, Russia waived the flag of peace and looks to the north for his future growth.

France - France has relative peace with everyone (even Germany who picked a fight with England) but has 2 builds and with France....the Autumn 1901 builds send a strong signal to his neighbors and is very difficult to take back. You have set yourself up in a way which gives you lots of options....I am a huge fam of options. My advice ....choose a course and commit to it. I also take a very negative opinion of the MAO--->Spain move. Now your fleet will be stranded in Portugal til the next build phase...Portugal would have left you with options as Spain is accessible by other units. As I said, I am a huge fan of options. As Triumvir said, the only real benefit is Italy (and England) are pleased that fleet is stranded...but thats real subtle and not worth the restrictions it places on you.

Germany/England/Russia - Looks like Russia and England can be stuck in a perpetual stalemate if left to their own devices. But Germany is the swing vote in that conflict. He will decide who will succeed there and who will fail. Oddly, his relationship with France may have as much to do with his decision as anything England or Russia have to say to him.

Turkey - I have been there brother. Your stuck in a corner with no options, and your thinking to yourself....why me? I was just sitting here minding my own business and suddenly everyone hates me. Russia appears entirely indifferent to your plight and your facing what appears to be an Austrian/Italian alliance who are willing to go to extreme measures to ally against you...and to top it off, you won the last SOW game against 2/3 of your neighbors. Only thing you can do is try and make yourself as useful as possible to someone and hope their greed breaks something open.

@Dyager - In regard to France, the fleet may not necessarily be stranded, depending on the build.

I thought you may disagree :)
I guess my thought is that the unit he builds will need to spend two phases trecking its way over to Portugal then trecking its way back the next year. As opposed to having the fleet in Portugal now. This allows the option of Marseilles or Paris builds grabbing Spain (and being mildly relevant as coverage for Marseilles) and Portugal doing something useful, or just having Portugal snag it.

I guess to me, the loss of options isn't worth the nominal gain of looking totally unscary.
But that's why we have two commentators. Two points of view.

Oh, I don't disagree that the best and most likely option has SPA moving to POR and sitting there. I was simply saying that it is not the only option available to the French player.

To the French player, Dyager makes a good point. What if you had taken POR instead last turn? It still gets you a build. It still keeps you on good terms with your neighbors. But if your fleet were in POR now, it could move to SPA in the Spring of '02 (where it would be much more useful). Or it would be free to move wherever you wanted and one of your builds (literally any unit you might build) could pick up SPA next year. It gives you more options/flexibility.

Adjustments 1901 – Builds Speak

If we learned anything from the last SoW it is that builds talk as loudly as press does. You might remember (if you were in the game or watching it) that Austria’s downfall started with a fleet build that angered Italy. I don’t think we have any builds this phase that are THAT provocative, but nonetheless all of the builds betray something about their nation’s leanings. Let’s take a look at what the builds are saying.

I’ll start off in the East, where the most expected builds occurred (that is, the builds that have the least to say).

Austria - Army BUD: This build is almost a requirement. If Austria is afraid of another surprise from Russia then he has to build in BUD to prevent RUM from moving in. If he’s afraid of Italian treachery he also should cover BUD to keep it safe from the Italian army in SER. If he is going to continue working with Italy (and Russia?) against the Turk, BUD is also the best build. About all I hear this build saying is “Yes. I’m still here. I’m still playing.”

Turkey - Fleet SMY: Turkey only had one center to build in so the question what one of “where” but rather “what.” The build of a fleet rather than an army (the right choice, in my opinion) says that Turkey is not just going to roll over and play dead. A fleet allows for defense but also allows for a certain amount of offense as well.

Italy - Fleet NAP: Italy’s move back to VEN in the Fall was not indicative of any mistrust between he and Austria. Rather it was coordinated move, paralleled by Austria’s move to TRI that was organized to protect their mutual border. The French move to SPA(nc), though criticized by both profs, freed him from any fear of attack from the West. Turkey should beware. Italy will very likely keep pushing his direction with Austrian help.

And now for the West.

England - Fleet LON: Not an unexpected build, given the aggression shown to England from both Germany and Russia during this first year. England intends to solidify his hold over the waterways surrounding his island. This build also leaves me wondering “Did England see the French build coming?”

Germany - Fleet KIE and army BER: The German fleet build says that he intends to keep the pressure on England in the north. We could perhaps expect to see him make an attempt on NTH this coming Fall (I can guarantee that’s what England is seeing with that build). The army is a fairly standard second build and could suggest that Germany is still not entirely secure about how things are panning out diplomatically on the mainland (or he may just want to keep a good balance of armies to fleets).

France - Fleet BRE and army MAR: I’M GOING TO ATTACK ENGLAND! This is the build set to which I was alluding when I said that France’s SPA fleet would not necessarily have to be marooned in POR this year. Expect the new fleet to make an attempt on ENG while SPA moves to MAO (the new army in MAR can make its way to POR, unless someone else intervenes). If France does not intend to move against England, he will have a LOT of explaining to do.

Russia - Armies in StP and MOS: Russia’s moves in 1901 and his build in StP put him firmly in the western fight. He has England surrounded in NWY and will likely take it out. However, his builds make it unclear as to where he goes from there. He would need fleets to keep pushing against England, and if he intended to move against Germany next, should his second build have gone in WAR instead? I hope I’m wrong, but Russia’s move says to me “I want NWY, but after that I’m not so sure.”

---

An interesting set of builds that has cleared up a few things and has made a few other things even muddier. What more could you ask from 1901? Looking forward to seeing how things turn out.

NOTE: It was pointed out to me that there are 3 players in this game who also just played in the last SoW game. I will not belabor the point but I will remind you that you should make all decisions in this game based on THIS GAME and not the last one. That is all.

Bump

Bump again

Spring 1902
A lot of wild and crazy unit movements this round, some I think I understand and others I am completely baffled by. In order of wildest and craziest on top -
AUSTRIA
Last Spring I expressed my skepticism that the Key Lepanto would succeed because it inherently depends on two people resisting greed in a game of liars and cutthroats. Italy proved honorable…Austria did not.
After spending quite a bit of time analyzing your orders I have come to the conclusion that you stabbed Italy and screwed up Trieste’s orders.
But alas, we will never see how your game changing stab would have changed the game….all because of a misplaced order. Assuming you had done the order correctly I think you would have been better served to have done this in Fall 1902 to better safeguard Greece as he couldn’t react before disbands.

FRANCE
As predicted by Professor Triumvir, Marseilles moves west to snag Portugal. However, as predicted by me, having the Marseilles army sitting in a neutral SC now would have been far better than him needing to decide between possibly bouncing in Marseilles and snagging Portugal or giving up his quest for England.
The move of the Burgundy army to Paris compounds your issue because now he is in a position to help you with absolutely nothing. I would guess this was to appease Germany but at least a move to Picardy would have allowed coverage of Belgium or a Fall Convoy to England. Once again – My advice is to make sure you move into positions which give you options.

ITALY
Austrian stab aside, your move to Pie is pretty awesome. I am not sure if it accomplishes much for you in the short run, but given free reign, France was going to rock England’s world and grow pretty quickly. You moving to Pie slows him down and puts his plans into chaos at little risk to you (the Austrian stab risk was there regardless of the army being in Pie or Venice). What I like most about it – it gives you OPTIONS. You can cover Venice from a sole Trieste bounce or gamble on Marseilles. Love it.

TURKEY
Black Sea is a smart move and if I had to guess it was done with Russia’s permission. You moved that fleet into a position to act as an additional support unit in case Italy sends another fleet your way.
I was a little surprised that all your units moved as opposed to support holding with Rumania’s help. In the end it accomplishes the same thing so I guess I can’t complain.

ENGLAND
Seems Germany promised you support into Sweden and didn’t come through. That’s unfortunate because my advice looking at the board is Germany is where your diplomacy dollars should be put, especially now that Sweden is open.
Surprised you didn’t bounce Brest in the English Channel. Triumvir was pretty clear in his writeup where the French fleets would move. When your playing 2-3 vs 1, you cannot win…your only hope is to delay and survive until an opportunity arises.

GERMANY
You aint winning. You aint losing. But your wheels are spinning as you move everything into position. Although the board looks passive in terms of your units, I would guess you are spending more time on diplomacy than your counterparts which may payoff big dividends in the long run.

RUSSIA
I save you for last because I have enjoyed your game the most so far. You are calculating and subtle. Every move you make appears to have a thought and purpose. You walk a tightrope when the payoff is good (see Galacia circa Spring 1901 and now Sweden Spring 1902). Your builds I suspect support your diplomacy. I bet the St Pete army build occurred with diplomacy to Germany about how Mainland England is his while the Moscow army probably occurred with diplomacy to Germany and Austria about how all your sights are on the north. I would be curious to know if the Black Sea was yours or Turkey’s idea. I am glad I am not facing you in any games currently.

I appreciate your write-up, Dyager. Your thoughts and my own are quite similar and so, since I am fairly pressed for time today and tomorrow, I will not add anything this phase (it would be redundant).