Spring 1901
Well, the first full season has finally completed and we professors are seeing the first fruits of diplomacy. This is the first season that a player has the ability to begin to get a feel for who is lying and who is telling the truth. Did your "ally" move as he promised? Was there a definite surprise? As a professor, we examine these moves and look at things and attempt to piece together the negotiations that likely took place. Needless to say, there are many such pieces that are pretty evident. Many promises were fulfilled, but I believe that some definitely weren't. By and large, the first full year is the most critical to the game. The first year's builds are by far the single most important determiner on how well a country will do throughout the game. In addition to that, no single other aspect of the game determines the outcome of F01 like S01. How a country moves in the Spring will determine its limitations in the Fall. As such, each country should take great care in setting the stage for the years to come. When I play, I log on to the site 3-times more frequently in the first year (or two) than any other year in the game. I constantly check messages, update orders, reply to comments, analyze the map (in the fall), build relationships, and attempt to unravel the mystery set before me concerning who is genuine and who is not. When I put this amount of energy into the first few years, it's rare that I am the odd-man out in the battle for an ally. I want S01 and F01 to go as picture-perfect as I can because it goes a long way to ensuring how well I do in the successive years.
The West
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The West saw a slew of vanilla openings and nothing is directly telling about any single set. From the appearance, it seems as if everyone is playing nice, has kept their promises and is waiting for the Fall or even S02 to break anything out. Generally I disdain this set of openings because countries can ill-afford to take a non-committal stand for an entire year before attacking. The ultimate goal for any sphere (east or west) is to reduce the number of contenders by 1 and then determine whether to assault your partner, or keep your old ally and move into the other sphere. Time is of the essence. It's not something given, it's something earned. Now, this does not mean that such openings have no place for an entire sphere. After all, the best laid traps are done under the guise of neutrality and friendship. In addition to this, there are an entire spectrum of possibilities that begin much like we're seeing here. Each player should have the ability to determine which course of action is the best because each game comes with its own unique set of circumstances and settings that each player must learn to recognize and control
France--While no country is definitely out in front, France has my top spot pick simply because of the neutrality of the other openings. Each western country moved in such a way as to remain as neutral as possible. There's no fleet in the Channel, no army in Burgundy, no army in Piedmont, and no threatening Russian. When this occurs, it most frequently plays in French favor. France, as it's nature has it, is very resistant to attacks and the only way to really bring the country down in the early game is to have a 3-way gang-up with E/G/I all moving inward. Traditionally, France has an easy two builds with the distinct possibility of 3. While I don't suspect that we will see a 3-build France, even having two and another season at securing a solid ally is really a great asset for this country. I like all the moves and have no complaint whatsoever on the opening. Each country kept its promise and it won't likely be until the Fall, or more realistically, S02 before we really see any surprising combat from the Western nations.
Germany--Once again, no Western nation is truly on top, but I like the setup Germany has. We aren't seeing a hostile Russian, and there's no clear E/F. In addition, France isn't in Burgundy and it's clear that Belgium is a point of discussion. With 2 solid builds and no clear enemies, this is really a good spot for Germany to be in. Now, it should be noted that this can be a false comfortability because Germany isn't as easily defended being a central country the same way France is, but the situation is far from tragic. Barring 3 builds, this is a really promising situation to be in. I like the agreed neutrality between F and G. This map setup has some potentially strong results and only the Fall will really tell anything. My pick is that Belgium goes either to England or Germany. Moves-wise, I liked everything I saw. I think that the Denmark Blitzkrieg is the best opening available to Germany, and anytime he can open in that fashion, he has more control over the map than any Danish Blitzkrieg where we see F Kie-Hol. He has the optional bounce of the Russian fleet, he can move to the North Sea in the event of a Sea Lion (not seen here), and it sets the fleet up for more options overall for the Fall than any other opening. Good moves.
England--I have you in last place only by technicality. I like your opening just as much as the other countries. The only thing that really places you in third place is the potential for a maximum of 2 builds as opposed to 3. The best things you have going for you is that you don't have a French fleet in the ENG, you've guaranteed Nwy, and there was no Russian move to StP. By far, my biggest concern in S01 moves is whether or not Russia orders A Mos-StP. When this occurs, it really spells potential disaster because there's one more country that is staking a claim over territory that England wants to control for himself. Statistically, the Northern Opening has a slight edge over the Southern Opening due to the potential failure of the F Lon-ENG move when a bounce occurs, but the fact that you have two fleets in the water and an army in convoy position gives you a good leg up. Having your minimum 1 build will pay dividends toward getting you toward the mid-game. I won't make any verbal predictions over the potential outcomes for the Fall moves, but as I posted in the German commentary, I believe that Bel will go to either you or the German. It's possible that no one gets it, but I don't see that here. The last thing I'll say is that I like the Edi opening for your army. Sometimes people open to Yor for the defensive nature of the move as it protects Lon, but I ultimately believe that if you have to dedicate your lone army to protection of your Island in S01, you're really in trouble and have a lot more to worry about than where you're getting your build from. I'll wait to say more after the Fall moves come through in a few days because that will determine how much I praise your opening. As it stands, it's safe, it's promising and holds potential to garner more.
The East
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The East saw far more turmoil and failed moves than the West. This will translate into what could be some very shattered alliances and struggling countries. Some countries have a clear leg up while others will have a very difficult road ahead of them. The events in the East have a major impact on how things go for the West, and vice-versa. The point at which conflict starts within a sphere often dictates the amount of time the other sphere has in reducing its numbers by 1. Most often, the East sees this type of conflict before the West, and this is certainly true here.
Turkey--Turkey has the best setup by a sizable margin. This begins with the move to the BLA. Far more often than not, when one country is sitting in the BLA, it means that one country deceived another with promises of a DMZ. While I can't guarantee that is what we're seeing here, it's certainly an indicator. More frequently when Turkey sneaks into the BLA, there will be a Turkish army in Arm. The fact that we aren't seeing this here could indicate something else, but it certainly adds tension to the situation. The second set of things that really help Turkey's strength here lie in the series of bounces performed by Austria. The bounce in Gal means that Russia will be slower to move south, and coupled with the 'bounce' in Tri mean that Austria has far less claim over the Balkans. This plays out very strongly for any Turkish player and the possibility of 2 builds is definitely stronger. My guess is that Turkey will be the guy to strike an ally with in this match. Now, I will say that I think much of his favor came from circumstance rather than great diplomacy, but circumstance still helps win games.
Italy--While some don't really like the Lepanto, I tend to favor it in situations where you're not really sure who you can trust. As a general rule, it's slower than other openings including the Obriani (anti-Austrian opening), but it affords more in the way of defense isn't as telling as any type of committal move. If any country has time on its side, it's definitely Italy. If it goes through 1901 and only picks up Tun, it's ok. It hasn't lost anything, and most frequently Italy doesn't even have an enemy until 1902 or later. Now, the one issue I have is the whole thing around Tri/Ven. I'm not entirely sure what happened here, but either way it's ugly. It means one of two things occurred, and I'll try to err on the side of accident. I'm going to assume that you intended to attack Austria and he intended to attack you and neither panned out. (I highly doubt this, though. I'm sure the moves were mutual). It's ludicrous to think you can move on Austria with a lone unit and really expect to get anywhere. The army move by itself produces nothing. Now, if we assume (more accurately) that the move was mutual, I think that the both of you are spending way too much effort trying to force trust than to simply let it play out. If you've got nothing to do with the army, and you want an Austrian ally, your best bet is to promise him that you aren't moving to Tri so that he can pick up Gre (or better yet, support you in). In addition, you could put the army to use by moving to Pie. This puts France on edge and could allow for E/G to move on him. While the move to Pie is not the first option I go with, it's something to consider, especially if you're trying to keep France out of your back side for as long as possible and you really want an Austrian ally. As such, you certainly have a lot going for you, and 1 build should be guaranteed, although where it comes from will remain to be seen.
Russia--Ouch, Turkey made the jump to the BLA. I'm sure by now, you're seeing the outcome and seething. You're either angry at Turkey for making the duplicitous move, or you're angry at yourself for agreeing to bounce and forgetting to issue the order. Either way, it hurts. Now, the bounce in Gal is better for you, although like I'll tell Austria, it tends to waste more time than anything. Russia is a beast of a country and of all the countries, it needs to come out of the gate fighting--not bouncing. If you were going to do precious little with 50% of your units, it would have been better for you to simply tell the paranoid Austrian that you won't go to Gal, and instead order War-Ukr and send Moscow north. Either that, or issue Sev-Rum and Mos south. At this stage, 2 builds is potentially out of the question, and depending on how sour things go, you may not get any. You really have to spend time making the most out of the 4 units you have, and that means making tangible moves. Now, the BLA is unfortunate, because even I have made the promise as Russia to not go to the BLA, but I always couple it with an inquiry into the Turkish player's game history (if available) to see if he has successfully DMZ'd the BLA in the past. If he has not, then the odds that he will do so in this game are incredibly thin. While the BLA is unfortunate, I'd have still done SOMETHING with the fleet. Move it to Ank to ensure that a Turkish army isn't moving there or move it to Rum to start your build-gaining. Either way, you're holding true to your end of the BLA DMZ and doing something else to ensure that you come away with something positive in the event that Turkey does indeed move there himself. I don't think the Fall will be a total disaster and I still think you have a lot of good prospects that will follow. Good luck.
Austria--This was certainly not the season I had anticipated for you. As a general rule, I try to avoid unnecessary bounces early on. When you've got only 3 units and you're using 2 of them to bounce, you're essentially wasting 67% of your available units on doing nothing. The way I typically view things is that Austria has a rough time getting to 1904 already, so I really need to put trust on the table and work for my 2 builds. If Russia lies about Gal and goes there, I still have a season to talk him out of an attack and can plan to still move in such a way as to guarantee me two. If he doesn't relent and still attacks, then hanging out in Tri and Vie wasn't going to stop the inevitable. The best thing you can do is to ensure that you get your 2 builds and hope for the best. Now, 1 bounce I can handle. The fact that you have 2 really hurts. You currently have little to no claim on Gre, a strong Turk, and a Russian that's still in War and could request a bounce in Gal for a second straight season. If Italy builds an army and marches north and Russia supports himself into Gal this coming season, there's nothing you can really do. In your case, you really have to simply let your diplomacy lead the way. Now, that doesn't mean that everything is negative. You certainly have a lot of pull over who gets what in the Balkans, and this sort of option could really pan out for something positive. In the end, a strong, committed ally is far better than an extra center, and if giving up Gre or Rum to a player ensures that you have an ally in 1902, then in the end, it was a success. Let's see how F01 ends before we cast any real gloom on the situation.
Yankee Gays waste good vodka ..... how queer is that?
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