Normalize Killing Turkey Easily in Gunboat

[New England Fire Squad]

Turkey is way too overpowered in gunboat on this site. Playing elsewhere has taught me that A/I should be able to kill Turkey relatively easily as long as a certain set of orders are in putted by Italy in 1901. A Ven to Tri in the Spring, and then F Ion to Aeg in the Fall. Italy gets a build from Austria (as a loan) for breaking Turkey’s back early. With a friendly fleet in the Aegean, Bulgaria falls easily and from there Turkey is essentially at A/I’s mercy and is rendered harmless at best, and dead at worst. Thoughts?

[TheFlyingBoat]

Every game of GB I see here ends in a Central Triple or E/A/I or E/G/A...where do these Turkish fears come from?

[FlaviusAetius]

Austria surviving in gunboat on the regular? Oh my how I wish!

[boylee]

I recommend the wonderful Gunboat Database to assess country strength.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/ ... e/Overview

[pyxxy]

I recommend the wonderful Gunboat Database to assess country strength.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/ ... e/Overview

(edit: I wrote all this and then realized that I misread "easily" for "early".... I think the general point stands, though)

Oh yes I love this resource too!

Using it, we can see whether or not the premise of this post is right-headed. The data has "average share", which is in a perfectly even world would be 100/7 = 14.2857% for each country.

My thesis would be that anti-French and anti-Turkey sentiments have definitely developed over time in gunboat. If we look at two time segments for win share data from WebDip:

2009-2018:

• Turkey, 0.198750
• France, 0.184573
• Germany, 0.151780
• Italy, 0.130035
• England, 0.128725
• Russia, 0.108139
• Austria, 0.097990

2019-2020:

• France, 0.1697521
• Germany, 0.1694017
• Turkey, 0.1684587
• Italy, 0.1436464
• England, 0.1258363
• Austria, 0.1178800
• Russia, 0.1050248

It seems to back up this claim. In the last two years, WebDip has definitely been killing Turkey (and France) more often. I can't tell you if they're doing it "early", but definitely often.

But maybe this is biased by including games with newer players. This of course is another claim, that France and Turkey are stronger powers by default in gunboat and that strategies/the meta develop to balance them out.

For the sake of curiosity, let's limit our time ranges to games with pot sizes of 707 or greater:

2009-2018:

• France, 0.221555
• Germany, 0.170077
• Turkey, 0.151148
• England, 0.129351
• Italy, 0.118678
• Russia, 0.108208
• Austria, 0.100982

2019-2020:

• Germany, 0.216466
• France, 0.179620
• England, 0.162746
• Italy, 0.130930
• Austria, 0.128725
• Russia, 0.101840
• Turkey, 0.079674

The issue here is the sample size. I can't post a picture but the percentages bounce all over. Germany is buoyed by an amazing 2019 Q4 $$$ so I'm not certain how accurately this reflects higher level player...

But it definitely seems like Turkey is dying

[Bladerunners]

Really interesting analysis. It seems to me that to draw Russia is worst in gunboat... and then pretty even after that

[Amwidkle]

Been playing a lot of gunboat lately. I have seen Turkey eliminated in only two, one on my way to an Austrian solo. https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?game ... #gamePanel

In this gunboat game where Turkey was defeated, Russia/Italy had an unusually strong alliance: https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?game ... #gamePanel

More often Turkey makes it into the draw or does quite well. One of those gunboat games was a solo win for me as Turkey. https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?game ... #gamePanel

In my experience, this post is right-headed for sure.

However, the moveset described by OP (Italy takes an Austrian center on loan, etc.) will never have a chance in gunboat of convincing Austria that Italy is friendly... XD

Killing Turkey typically takes some serious trust and coordination among at least 2 Eastern powers, which gunboat makes very difficult. At most, I see Turkey lose Bulgaria, but whomever takes Bulgaria from Turkey (typically Austria) rightly becomes viewed as the Balkans threat to beat. Russia or Italy amassing enough force to crack Turkey through Armenia or Eastern Med is rare in gunboat.

[Pinecone333]

This post is absolutely right-headed. People should attack Turkey with the same ferocity they attack France in gunboat. If you don't kill Turkey early, he WILL survive and he WILL begin expanding again. Unlike France, who is effectively neutered if you get him down to 3 centers (which will usually be Portugal, Spain, and Marseilles), Turkey with his three home centers still has explosive expansion power. Even with two, he can recover if you don't finish the job. So long as Turkey remains alive, Austria and Russia are always in danger of a resurgent menace from the Southeast.

Really, in addition to normalizing killing Turkey, we should normalize an Austrian/Russian alliance in gunboat too. It covers the weaknesses of both very-weak powers and gives them a realistic chance of eliminating Turkey, which almost never happens in gunboat.

[Carol]

A Ven to Tri in the Spring, and then F Ion to Aeg in the Fall.
[...]
Thoughts?

How is Austria supposed to know Italy isn't just trying to take Trieste? Italy would have a hard enough time convincing Austria of its good intentions in a press game. In gunboat? Good luck with that.

[A_Tin_Can]

With words. I'm usually very clear about my moves with people.

Maybe Austria doesn't like it, but ...so? They can't meaningfully attack you until 1903 anyway. And they'll see that you were on their side when the moves are revealed.

Also, if Austria refuses to allow Italy to move to Tyrolia, I don't think they wanted to work with Italy anyway - at least, not on equal footing.

Edit: I thought this was in the lepanto thread. Anyway, I like it either way - although I think it's reasonable for Austria to decline a friendly move to Tyrolia. Different strokes.

[Carol]

If we were talking about a move to Tyrolia in a press game, that would be perfectly feasible. Potentially challenging if the Austrian is cautious and paranoid, but well within the realm of possibility.

However:
1. OP suggested a move to Trieste, not Tyrolia.
2. The OP was specifically talking about gunboat games.

I guess it can work, if Austria goes for Greece and moves Trieste to Albania then in autumn keeps their cool and takes Greece instead of evicting you from Trieste, and then recognizes your move to Aegean as a sign you're actually attacking Turkey, but you are making a gamble on Austria's opening moves, Austria's moves in autumn of 1901, and Austria's correct reading of your own autumn moves.

While you can certainly try a plan that hinges on the excellence of another player ... it's probably not a good idea for most players, most of the time.

[Aristocrat]

If we were talking about a move to Tyrolia in a press game, that would be perfectly feasible. Potentially challenging if the Austrian is cautious and paranoid, but well within the realm of possibility.

However:
1. OP suggested a move to Trieste, not Tyrolia.
2. The OP was specifically talking about gunboat games.

I guess it can work, if Austria goes for Greece and moves Trieste to Albania then in autumn keeps their cool and takes Greece instead of evicting you from Trieste, and then recognizes your move to Aegean as a sign you're actually attacking Turkey, but you are making a gamble on Austria's opening moves, Austria's moves in autumn of 1901, and Austria's correct reading of your own autumn moves.

While you can certainly try a plan that hinges on the excellence of another player ... it's probably not a good idea for most players, most of the time.

This actually happened in a game I was in. Unfortunately, I was Turkey: https://webdiplomacy.net/board.php?game ... #gamePanel . Italy took Trieste/Aegean early and Austria went full steam ahead against me rather than try to recover Trieste, correctly guessing that Italy (in the beginning) was friendly. Ultimately all 3 of myself, Austria, and Italy were eliminated before the game settled for a 4-way draw.

I think that game demonstrates the problem with the move, from Austria's perspective: it just sets up Italy to be very strong and in a great place to stab without doing much to further Austria's own interests. Austria isn't going to be able to effectively fight Russia down a unit due to Italy picking up Trieste. If Italy wins the guessing game vs Turkey, Italy likely picks up the Turkish home centers as well (leaving Austria with maybe Bulgaria, if they can hold it), or, if Italy gets frustrated (as happened in the linked game), it's easy enough for them to walk into Greece and Vienna while Austria's units are all out on the front line.

I agree with whomever said upthread that normalizing an Austria/Russia alliance would more or less solve both countries' issues, but there is no reason to expect the meta to shift like that absent much greater involvement in places like the forum where people can internalize that such an alliance is even a possibility.

[Claesar]

This post is absolutely right-headed. People should attack Turkey with the same ferocity they attack France in gunboat. If you don't kill Turkey early, he WILL survive and he WILL begin expanding again. Unlike France, who is effectively neutered if you get him down to 3 centers (which will usually be Portugal, Spain, and Marseilles), Turkey with his three home centers still has explosive expansion power. Even with two, he can recover if you don't finish the job. So long as Turkey remains alive, Austria and Russia are always in danger of a resurgent menace from the Southeast.

Really, in addition to normalizing killing Turkey, we should normalize an Austrian/Russian alliance in gunboat too. It covers the weaknesses of both very-weak powers and gives them a realistic chance of eliminating Turkey, which almost never happens in gunboat.

I've been advocating for A/R for a long time. The problem I see is that most Austria and most Russia players think it's necessary to send all possible units to Galicia every single turn. Locking down 2-6 units that way negates any chances of the alliance doing well.

The key is for neither to go to Galicia in F01. I've been trying to get this working in a semi-closed group that listens to my ravings, and even then it falls on deaf ears most of the times.

[TheFlyingBoat]

This post is absolutely right-headed. People should attack Turkey with the same ferocity they attack France in gunboat. If you don't kill Turkey early, he WILL survive and he WILL begin expanding again. Unlike France, who is effectively neutered if you get him down to 3 centers (which will usually be Portugal, Spain, and Marseilles), Turkey with his three home centers still has explosive expansion power. Even with two, he can recover if you don't finish the job. So long as Turkey remains alive, Austria and Russia are always in danger of a resurgent menace from the Southeast.

Really, in addition to normalizing killing Turkey, we should normalize an Austrian/Russian alliance in gunboat too. It covers the weaknesses of both very-weak powers and gives them a realistic chance of eliminating Turkey, which almost never happens in gunboat.

I've been advocating for A/R for a long time. The problem I see is that most Austria and most Russia players think it's necessary to send all possible units to Galicia every single turn. Locking down 2-6 units that way negates any chances of the alliance doing well.

The key is for neither to go to Galicia in F01. I've been trying to get this working in a semi-closed group that listens to my ravings, and even then it falls on deaf ears most of the times.

Agreed on this. When I got a semi-closed group to listen to me a year ago, Austria and Russia did incredibly well for a couple months (surprise surprise). Then they start bouncing again and Russia is back to being shit and Austria is just ok.