Good news, Maniac. I found the bet thread!

http://webdiplomacy.net/forum.php?threadID=1137329

Extremely disappointed for Jo Swinson losing her seat. She's a great liberal voice and really inspired me when I was a teenager and she became the youngest person to ever become an MP.

I know there's a lot of disdain for the Lib Dems. But the contrast of only a -2.9% swing in a seat with a Liberal Democrat sitting MP shows the hard work and loyalty that Liberal Democrats members and voters put in to the seats we hold. That's a massive difference and highlights how strong Liberal Democrat rapport and campaigns are in held seats.

There goes Murphy...

I've always been a fan of the Lib Dems. I've never understood why they got such a beating over tuition fees, when the system works pretty much exactly the same as their graduate tax idea.

I just love the way a British party would win 51% of the vote and only get a single MP...
49% in every constituency but one and 100% of the vote in that one.

Obviously that extreme is not going to happen with UKIP, or anyone else, but it is still a fairly messed up system.

A small price to pay for the ability to vote for a person, not a party.

There is a middle ground... Given that Irish voters don't vote for a party, but also end up with a more proportional representation - hence the reason we so often get coalition governments.

Anyway, back to the election - Northern Ireland not much change. In Wales the Conservatives have taken a Labour and Lib Dem seat.

While the SNP knocked Labour and Lib Dems out of Scotland. (Again, because of FPTP) With UKIP doing rather poorly, does that mean the Conservatives are the party of England and Wales?

Nope, the Conservatives are the party of the centre right, individual responsibility and freedom, and the Union. There are always regional fluctuations, and a recent trend has been minimal success in Scotland. That will change, hopefully sooner rather than later. Scotland has been a Tory stronghold before and with a bit of effort will be again.

@wjessop

The swing against the Lib Dems in Davey's seat must be worrying for you...

Well if the party is of Union, individual responsibility, freedom, and the centre right, maybe it is just Scotland isn't a place of at least one of those thigs.

But with FPTP that is the result you get, and it looks like the SNP are only getting stronger.

I wonder is it Union that they're against??

And i don't make similar claims about NI - as the DUP tend to sit in the centre/extreme right there - without other choices at least half of them would still vote Conservative (or similarly not having a problem having the DUP in a coalition with the Cons)

The Scots in pretty much every survey have near identical political ideologies to the English. We know from the referendum that they're pro Union, for the most part. The problem has been a failure of the Tories to treat it as a winnable battleground, and something of a toxic legacy from past mistakes.

Stroud Parliamentary constituency
CON HOLD

Well done Neil! I can go to bed now :p

@Octavious:

The -15% swing against Ed Davey is certainly disappointing. It's a clear bellwether. Davey had such a high majority. If majorities like this are failing to hold, then the 10 seat prediction seems appropriate.

Which would be a damned shame...

I still think Nick Clegg will hold his seat though. Losing a 30% majority will be a massive blow.

I heard rumours that Tories were being encouraged to vote for Cleggy

Thx octavious be interesting to see final UKIP share of the vote. Looking back at your prediction that libdems would get 20%...

24% swing to SNP in Orkney, they only fell 800 seats short of toppling Carmichael of the Lib Dems... that's insane - Orkney/Shetland hate Holyrood and were massively pro Union.

Labour have kept the Welsh nationalists out of Ynys Mon. I'm quite happy about that.

C'mon, Maniac, be fair. I can't be right about everything :p

Lots of pro-unionists have been voting SNP. They were voting for the party most likely to get Scotland a good deal, which is fair enough.

It's most strange that the tories have got so many seas in Wales!

There goes Hughes...

Will this make it easier or harder for Clegg to win a leadership election?

Liberal Democrats look likely to be the second biggest party in Scotland!

Carswell's survived :)

I haven't seen vote share yet, are UKIP >10%?

No one's made any % predictions yet. Not that I've seen anyway.