1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. Ohio State
4. Florida State

or

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. Florida State
4. Ohio State

I'd be surprised if the committee didn't take the hand-wrapped gold-plated 59-point excuse Ohio State just gave them to pass the buck on picking one of the Big XII teams.

All I know is, if FSU doesn't get a spot I am going to shit a brick

I'll say

1. Oregon
2. Alabama
3. TCU
4. Florida State

I thought Nate Silver had a good point -- Baylor basically can't possibly make it. They were #6, and the #5 team just had one of the best wins of the year. It would be absurd for them to pass OSU this week.

Full predictions:

Sugar Bowl (semifinal): #1 Alabama vs #4 Florida State
Rose Bowl (semifinal): #2 Oregon vs #3 Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Mississippi State
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs Arizona
Cotton Bowl: TCU vs Boise State
Peach Bowl: Ole Miss vs Michigan State

Of those 5, only Alabama and Ohio State played a full FBS schedule this year. The other three (FSU, UO and TCU...and Baylor for that matter) each picked up one FCS cupcake. I hope it's one of those three that gets left out.

Alabama's non-conference schedule included Western Carolina (FCS).

My bad, screw Alabama too. If tOSU gets screwed over, there should be an uproar. Not a fan boy really, but I despise that the NCAA allows one FCS game to count toward bowl eligibility. It used to be used as a way for major conference teams to schedule a game in the event that an FBS team had to back out of an obligation, but now those games are routinely scheduled as easy blowouts, sometimes intentionally before rivalry games. It's cheap, plain and simple.

Both Alabama and Auburn had cupcake games the week prior to the Iron Bowl. Serious teams (like OSU) would not even schedule an FCS game.

BTW, how did Alabama manage to have all four of its non-conference games at home?

Big programs pay small schools to play at their home venue. They money generated from television revenue and gate receipts far outweighs the money spent.

tOSU is a serious program, but don't give them much scheduling credit. There are only three programs that have never scheduled FCS teams: USC, UCLA and Stanford. In general, the Pac-12 schedules the fewest FCS teams, but that trend has waned in the past decade, aside from USC and UCLA.

Whoops, *not* Stanford. It's Notre Dame that has never scheduled FCS.

So I think it will be:
1. bama
2. oregon
3. TCU
4. Florida

Within reason my hope is:
1. bama
2. oregon
3. OSU
4. Florida
(i would prefer tcu to florida but they are making it, simple as).

I think Ohio State has a good chance (and not just because I'm a fan). I could see the committee thinking TCU should maybe edge Ohio State, even with last night's game of the year performance (third string quarterback starting his first game, if he leads us to the national title it would be the best year everrrr.) - but I think that it could be now that they are supposedly considering head to heads Baylor has the edge over TCU, and OSU imo are obviously ahead of Baylor, so if they give Baylor the edge over TCU then OSU are definitely in. Otherwise it will be really close.

Go Buckeyes!

The committee painted themself in a corner by ranking TCU ahead of FSU last week. I don't see how they can now push FSU ahead of TCU without losing some credibility. OSU answered all questions about their QB situation, so if FSU as an undefeated team had been #3 last week then it's easy to merely put OSU in at #4 and kick TCU out...

I think it should be Oregon, Alabama, FSU and OSU.

I think based on last week's rankings it will be Alabama, Oregon, OSU, TCU.

The committee, with last week's rankings, appeared interested in making a statement that it's not just about an undefeated season, it's not just about wins and losses but how you play the game, will be interesting to see if they stick to that this week, when it actually matters, or if they flip-flop and put FSU ahead of TCU for no good reason (based on the last seven days, since the last rankings came out).

For the final rankings I expect OSU to have beaten more top 25 teams than Baylor or TSU (Michigan State who are a strong team, and destroying a good wisconsin should be worth a lot), and they have beaten more bowl eligble teams too, things that may play in.

Stats and rankings for people who are into it:

http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

BCS rankings were flawed in the past and gave us some bad championship games. The 4 team playoff this year is controversial, and at least two very good teams will be left out. I will not be satisfied until we get at least an 8 team playoff...better yet, a 16 team playoff.

6 team is best.

when fsu got 3 i was so worried we would miss out on it, thank god the buckeyes made it

I don't think a larger playoff is necessary. I do wish they selection committee would mandate that they only select teams which play at least 9 games vs teams in the Big 5 Conferences, and that all games be played against FBS teams.

Baylor didn't play anyone serious outside the Big 12 so they didn't deserve the nod. TCU played a soft Minnesota team. They didn't get the nod either. I think the TCU snub also had to do with their history as a program. They only joined the Big 12 in 2012 so they didn't get any benefit of the doubt when it came down to it.

There are 5 power conferences, the winner of each should be in, and then one team from another conference/independent. If tcu beat baylor instead of losing, osu didn't lose a game, then what, you drop the unbeaten fsu? generally speaking the winner of each will seem equalish and have a good case to get in.

"BTW, how did Alabama manage to have all four of its non-conference games at home?"

Probably by not doing it? They played West Virginia in Atlanta.

I think any choice of Baylor, TCU, or Ohio State would have been fine, but so far the CFB playoff has been as bad as I expected: nonsense weekly rankings that are all but admitted to be for ratings, not actually settling the issue (with the debate over 4-6), and worst of all drastically reducing the interest in lower bowls and non-playoff teams.

If the Big 5 Conferences were forced to become more interconnected, and if those schools had to play more games against the mid-majors instead of FCS cupcakes, then there would be more 2-loss teams which eliminate themselves from contention. Every game would be a playoff game. That just isn't the case now.

I agree with the top four, but last week's ranking were a disaster. If head-to-head was going to put Baylor ahead of TCU in the end, why not do that the week before? If 3 thru 6 last week was honestly 3a, 3b, 3c and 3 then why not be more transparent about zero losses being most important last week and have FSU be #3 then, and why not be transparent about head-to-head? I understand there is some grey area, but hopefully there isn't a 3 to 6 drop in the last week in future years.

I've come around on TCU being at #3 last week and ahead of Baylor actually. I was arguing against it pretty hard on another forum, but you have to remember that two big things happened this week to swing the tide toward Baylor:
- Oklahoma lost and dropped out of the T25; each team losing a quality win probably magnified the value that the committee placed on the head-to-head win
- Baylor notched a win over #12 K-State while TCU effectively tread water (they blew out Iowa St, but Iowa St is 2-10 this year, so it doesn't mean much).

In any case, looking at the rankings, I think I picked the field right, but we'll have to see about the actual matches. I'm a little surprised that they apparently aren't going to have a B1G/Pac Rose Bowl.

Also, I think the playoff needs to go to eight and stay there. The goal of setting the playoff size is to capture the teams who have an argument for being the best team in the country while minimizing the amount of teams that don't have an argument but are allowed in anyway. In several years past, four has been the best option for this, and in several other years past, four has been too small. Eight is almost never too small and is strictly better than 12 or 16 in minimizing the amount of teams that are wrongfully allowed in, so it is the best size IMO.

We won't really know until after TCU plays Ole Miss and especially Baylor plays Michigan State and Ohio State plays Alabama. If Alabama soundly beats Ohio State and Baylor trashes MSU, then it will be obvious it was a mistake, the same way it became even more apparent in hindsight that 2004 Auburn deserved the national title berth over 2004 Oklahoma.

A potential Alabama v FSU national championship game is worth more $$$,$$$,$$$ than an Oregon v Ohio State Rose Bowl.

"Sugar Bowl (semifinal): #1 Alabama vs #4 Florida State
Rose Bowl (semifinal): #2 Oregon vs #3 Ohio State
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Mississippi State
Fiesta Bowl: Baylor vs Arizona
Cotton Bowl: TCU vs Boise State
Peach Bowl: Ole Miss vs Michigan State"

Got all the teams but only one of the matchups :(