Lecture 2: Opening Moves

So, you heard me blather on in general terms. Here's where the real stuff starts coming out. Opening moves. For the most part, this is not the most important phase of the game. In my opinion, that is fall 1901/spring 1902. But nevertheless, opening moves are important for signaling purposes (and, rarely, the start of an outright attack).

A rule of thumb I like to play by is 'Don't lie to someone unless you're going to kill them.' People lying about their opening moves is frustrating as hell to me because it establishes you as unreliable, and swings opinion against you for the very important fall moves. Just because Russia didn't DMZ Black Sea as promised doesn't mean that he has Austria on his side. All Russia has done is crown Austria kingmaker in a fight in the east. Russia gains the *potential* for higher gain through his unit positioning, but not the assurance of it. He's broken Turkey's trust for at least two phases, and you can be sure Turkey will be messaging everyone and their mother for help.

Which brings me to my second point - if you are going to be bold, do not be bold alone. If you are opening to the Channel as England, make sure France plans to DMZ Burgundy and ensure Germany moves with you. You don't want to wait until the builds phase to have confirmation of whether or not someone is with you. Give yourself time to recover diplomatically in the case of a betrayal before you commit too much. Now there are some moves that are unilaterally bold. The Key Lepanto, for instance, places all risk on Austria. Just be aware of these situations and tread cautiously! Get a good read on the player and the board before you attempt.

Third, and maybe this should be first in terms of importance, as this is general advice and not just pertinent to spring 1901 moves: Do not waste your moves. Each turn is an investment in your units' time. Every space away from your home SC's represents time invested in putting that unit where it is. In the time that it takes for A Warsaw to reach Bohemia, for example, it could've been in Berlin or Munich. Which is the better way to invest your unit? Essentially what I am saying is twofold: Do not make wasteful moves with your units and do not keep them idle unnecessarily.Russian fleet in Sweden sitting around idle? Don't have it hold; tap that German fleet in Denmark to ensure an attempted stab will be less successful. Now, of course, this is a general rule but not necessarily a universal one. Sometimes holds are necessary for diplomatic purposes. But just get into the mindset that holds are wastes of potential and question yourself - is the diplomatic/strategic benefit from holding worth it?

I'll close out by saying this - give yourself options this phase. Ambiguity is your friend. You want to be able to move in such a way that both your friends and your enemies think you're moving the way they want you to. This is difficult to achieve. Sometimes, people see right through it. In that case, fall back on honesty - its a good backup. If Germany is mad that France supported himself to Burgundy (rather than bounce), France can easily explain this away as being overly concerned about defense. So, not necessarily convince Germany that the move is friendly, but convince him that its not hostile. (Note: Clearly, some moves - such as France opening to the Channel - cannot be explained away as such. Take this at your own discretion). What I'm saying, by and large, is give yourself options. Don't dig yourself into a hole, and don't make yourself immediately reliant upon another power's goodwill.

Best of luck everyone, I look forward to seeing the opening moves. Maybe I'll get in another lecture tomorrow, but most likely not.

So MajorMitchell thinks that Spring 1901 moves are the most important, and Goldie disagrees. Would either of you like to expand on that?

I am not a professor here, but I tend to share Goldie's opinion that, while you don't want to royally mess up spring 1901, the two or three phases after that are the ones that decide the early game. Spring 1901 can be the most important phase for negotiation, but usually the bland moves, setting up for future strikes, are the most successful.

Spring '01 is important because it sets the tone for relationships, but I have to agree with my co-prof that the next few phases' moves teams to be more important. I think a lot of alliances are solidified in the '01 builds or '02 spring, and that's what's really gonna set the course for the game.

I've seen ghug NMR in spring 01, just so he can make someone feel sorry for him and work with him.

i would definitely have to agree that the most important phases are autumn '01 and spring '02. One can usually explain away a spring '01 move if they are a strong enough diplomat. However, after that players moves become much more transparent and alliances become easier to see.

Just a reminder that students and TAs should avoid posting in the thread.

Oh my bad I didn't know, my lips are sealed from now on.

(I know I'm not suppose to talk here but can we get a link for ATCs claim)

gameID=154806

Better result than goldie's Con-Sev swap. Take that as you will.

Students don't do that. Do note that he was immediately attacked by both of his neighbors, and only survived due to their poor tactics in attacking him

And I'm sure it was this failure in tactics on Austria's part that was a factor in causing Russia to turn on him

Oh, and do read uclabb's opening remarks in the other thread. They are very good.

I have a question for the professors that I probably won't be around to read!

This early in the game, the very early game here, how much are you thinking about your big picture strategy? At what point do you start to say, "OK, this is how I think I am getting to 18 centers"?

Typically, I have a vague idea of what I want to do before my first moves, but I don't really set my plans till after the first year when I can start to see how the board has shaped up. The most I try to think in the first year is "This is the nation I'm going to attack. This is what I need to do to deceive them. This is going to be my partner"

Once I get through that initial stage of seeing who is my ally and who is my enemy, I start to plan out a map to 18 centers. If anyone in Spring 1901 is trying to sell me on a plan of an alliance longer than 3 years, I don't trust them.

"If anyone in Spring 1901 is trying to sell me on a plan of an alliance longer than 3 years, I don't trust them."

That's why goldie never trusts me...

Interesting. Are we talking about a long term plan with specifics or general ideas (or both)?

Several interesting moves to report on this. Let me think on them a bit more to get a full lecture of stuff, but almost every power (save maybe France) has some interesting decisions to make this coming year.

Star

Daffy old MajorMitchell's commentary, post two
I see excellent moves by England and Turkey, very good moves by Austria, reasonable moves by France and Germany & average moves by Russia.
Why do I rate them thus ?
England..has made a risky set of moves, total commitment to a "go North, go hard" strategy..moving his army to Edinburgh, not Yorkshire was the big gamble, but it has positioned England well, he can convoy his army to Norway, and use fleet North Sea to bounce Germany in Holland, or try for Belgium.
Diplomacy / strategy for England.. France didn't try a move to the English Channel, and clashed with Germany in Burgundy so England can encourage France to fight Germany by offering support to France, and exploit this situation.
I read those comments about the importance of the Autumn 01, Spring 02 moves and recognise their importance, but England provides a good example ( army to Edinburgh, not Yorkshire to protect London if France had moved to English Channel ) of bold Spring 01 moves setting up great possibilities in Autumn 01
Turkey, I like what I see, no half measures, puts pressure on Russia from the get go. Hindsight might tempt the viewer into thinking gee he shouldn't have done that, he's missed the opportunity to go for Greece and Bulgaria by moving army Bulgaria to Greece and if he'd moved his other army to Constantinople he could have that follow by moving from Con to Bulgaria.
I disagree, Turkey's moves maximise his negotiating position with both Russia and Turkey, Greece is not a certainty even in this situation.
Austria.. May have gone back on a promise to Russia regarding a DMZ in Galicia, but "safety first non move" of fleet Trieste has prevented a sneaky attack by Italy from succeeding.
Italy..average, imho, but I must emphasise that I am useless with Italy. But my criticism..didn't move armies to either Piedmont and Venice, or to Tyrolia and Venice, or to Tuscany and Apulia.. Be decisive..set up to attack France, or set up a better attack against Austria, or do neither... A half hearted, failed attack on Trieste is the least desirable outcome.
Germany, I'm not a fan of the move to Burgundy. France won't forgive that easily, or forget it. Locked into not bouncing Russia in Sweden now, imho..I'll have to look at the map, but maybe cunning gamble..fleet Denmark to North Sea and army Kiel to Denmark is worth considering.. It concedes Holland to England but captures North Sea, which will give England a hatful of headaches in 02.
Diplomacy.. Make friends with Russia.
Russia, I suppose my bias against having a unit hold in Spring 01 shows, but I await a brilliant set of moves for the Autumn move. Work the Diplomacy.. with Germany to get Sweden and offer support Against England ? In the South, well encourage Italy to continue to attack Austria. With Turkey ? Try to get Turkey to change his strategy.. Good luck with that, lol

Re the which set of moves are important, they all are. But Spring 01 moves are critical, eg Austria moving to Galicia and holding in Trieste, he's correctly predicted the move to Trieste, the non move to Galicia by Russia and is now positioned to make a supported move from Galicia to Rumania, Diplomacy wise / strategically.. He might get away with offending Russia, because Turkey has made moves that put pressure on Russia, and so has England.

@MajorMitchell
You didn't correctly see the direction of the arrow between Trieste and Venice. Austria attacked Italy, not vice versa.

You label it as an attack, but I would call it a defensive move to block Ven-Tyr, Rom-Ven. Nonetheless, they likely have something to chat about.

^ I agree that it was likely a defensive move; I would even guess that Austria told Italy beforehand that he would do that. I didn't mean something agressive with the word 'attack', though I now see it comes across as such.

It's funny because I would certainly label Ven-Tri as an attack.

I would also label Ven - Tri as an (agressive) attack.

"If anyone in Spring 1901 is trying to sell me on a plan of an alliance longer than 3 years, I don't trust them."

I don't like this one bit. Sure, it's infeasible to lay out exact moves, but there's nothing wrong with a strong early alliance. There are a lot of different ways to solo, but most of them start with a good early game ally.

To answer ckr, I wouldn't say I have a concrete solo plan laid out at this phase. I'm usually not looking at counting a specific 18 until I'm around 10-12, thinking more in terms like "OK, I'll have my home centers and nearby neutrals, I'll eventually own all of this neighbor and some of this neighbor if things go right, and then I have to grab one or two out of these four across the stalemate line to ensure I don't get stuck at 17". I would be planning at that level right now, but there doesn't have to be any exclusivity to it. If I'm England I have a plan for an alliance with France and another for an alliance with Germany. Both of those will have further variations based on what's going on with other powers, primarily Russia. Most of those plans get abandoned early, but it's important to think every route through to help with decision making. Gold seems to be saying that he comes into games with an idea of which way he wants to go, which is not how I play at all. Any alliance or crazy opening *can* work well, so which path you take should be defined by the people.

As for the discussion of Ven-Tri, it's an attack unless Austria has told you he's going to move to Venice, and then it doesn't really matter what you do (unless he's lying to you, and then i the joke's on him.

I'll give some thoughts on moves in a minute.

Alright, it's been a bit more than a minute, and I promised, so it's time for grades! In the spirit of a middle school math teacher I remember very fondly, we'll be posting all of your grades publicly in order to foster a competitive spirit and ensure that everyone knows why that fuckboy Robin was crying in the hallway last period. For now I'll separate it into West and East because those are the spheres with visible interaction right now. Please don't take this to mean that only the people in your group should matter to you. Keep trying to influence everyone. Now, without further ado...

THE WEST:

FRANCE - A+
Ah, the Burgundy bounce. Marseilles is still free to take Spain. Munich can't do shit. You either have Belgium or get to gift it to England without any German say in the matter. MAO picks up a center as well, so you're probably +2 or +3 this year.

Big things to think about are how to manage your reputation as an early leader, especially if you get six centers, and obviously where you want to go next. Presumably the bounce was planned, so there's no reason you can't still work with the German, meaning that you have a lot of options.

ENGLAND - B
Pretty standard opening, which is what's expected given that you're England. You've gotta think about whether you want to convoy to Norway and attack Russia or attempt to put your army in Belgium and give yourself more of a say in western affairs. Germany and France aren't in conflict, but clearly they don't exactly trust each other. Try to use that to your advantage.

GERMANY - D
Why? Could you really not convince France that Burgundy wasn't a necessary move? He's just bullied you out of having any say on Belgium, and you've gotten nothing out of it. If you intend to work with him, you're gonna want to find a way to healthier relations. If that won't work, you better hope England is nice.


THE EAST:
TURKEY - B+
Good stuff. You have a nice start on Russia, and Austria seems inclined to help. On top of that, the Greek question is up in the air, and you'll have influence on that too. Everyone should be trying to be your friend right now.

ITALY - B-
Italy is naturally inclined to wait and see a bit, so it's kind of hard to excel here early. Your moves are as typical as they come here, but that's alright given how the rest of the east is shaping up. The hardest thing for Italy early on is getting a build after Tunis, but you're in a good position to at least contest Greece, and there's enough conflict elsewhere that it's unlikely anyone's gonna want to fight you for a little while.

AUSTRIA - C+
I hate hate hate hate hedgehogs. Gold tried one once. We all made fun of him. Great time. Ask him about it. If all of your neighbors want you dead from the get go, you're gonna die. Austria is vulnerable. That is what it is. What you should be doing is trying to kill that vulnerability, by getting bigger. Greece should be yours, and now instead you're probably the third most likely to get it. You could get Rumania with Turkish help here, which keeps this from being awful, and R/T conflict in general is always good for Austria, but you could have brought this from OK to great by doing something useful with your fleet.

RUSSIA - D
Fine moves in themselves, but you're in trouble. Two immediate neighbors lied to you (or convinced you to be OK with things you shouldn't have been OK with), and you have an England positioned to convoy to Norway and a Germany who could be eager to ally with him. Ideally you can convince the Italian to come in and help against at least one of your neighbors, and you should be able to convince Germany he won't benefit by weakening you even further bouncing Sweden. Beyond that, the road is less clear, though luckily you'll have plenty of time to turn things around. You've got a lot of press to send.

I'm at work, so will probably be unable to post full grades for a while, but I would like to add to Ghug's commentary on England. Holland is always an option, in addition to Belgium
This is really why Germany's bounce in Burgundy hurts so much. If there is an Email/F brewing, Germany could be stuck with just one build, and it's not looking like Russia would have the ability to come to the rescue either.

*E/F

Stupid phone autocorrect

Also, I would like to correct the impression I seem to have given about coming into a game with preconceived ideas of alliances and openings. There are certain ones I fall back on more often than others, but flexibility is key. Sell plans of alliance to each of your neighbors as ghug says, yes, but keep the majority of that pitch focused on how *they* will stand to benefit initially. The goal of most players at the very beginning is not to end up on the wrong side of a 2v1, not a game-spanning alliance. It's not to say it can't transform into that, but I pretty much discard any longer term plans given to me until I can gauge how trustworthy my ally is.