I would generally second largeham's view. A war is unlikely, but if it happened, Columbia would be likely to win, thanks in no small part to the support they would recieve from the US.

1. Highly unlikely to develop beyond a few border clashes and assassination attempts, if even that.
2. Venezuela should take an early advantage due to their recent investment in some pretty good military equipment. It won't make any odds though. Columbia has US support that would stop any invasion being completed, and Venezuela have millions of armed civilians that would make life hell for anyone who invades them. In short it would be a completely pointless and rather embarrasing exercise.

Columbia's best bet would be to encourage a civil war against Chavez, but it would need some spark to set it off. As things stand Venezuela has millions of people who would gladly shoot Chavez at the first opportunity, but Chavez has rather more who are well armed and deluded into thinking he's the best thing since sliced arepas. An event is needed that will seriously erode Chavez's support base or nothing stands a chance of working.

Colombia peoples, not Columbia. BTW, type Colombia into google and this is the second image: http://www.bigtravelweb.com/images/miss-colombia-l.jpg

P.S. A good page to check things out on if a war breaks out: www.strategypage.com A good website for anything military related, and should appeal to any right-wingers here (most of the authors and forum member there are right-wing)

They look pretty good if that's your type, although I met a contestant for Miss Venezuela on my travels down there and I have to say she had the edge. Of course, their habit of kissing people to say hallo may have made me a tad biased. Having said that the accent would drive me mad after a while...

Strangely enough in my experience left wingers tend to be more militant than us peace loving members of the right.

Agree with most of the commentary that a war is really unlike to happen and if this unlike event happen Venezuela will probably be the biggest loser (I don´t believe there is a true winner on a war).
The main reason that a war is really unlikely is that both governments have huge problems at home and on the international cenario too and starting a war could lead to one or both governments being overthrown.
Chavez have a strong opposition at home, specially on the main city Caracas and even more opposition from the US and EU caused by his totalitarian and nationalist politics and also few support from other countries.
Colombia have an insurgent movement on his own country (FARC - that caused this diplomatic spat on first place) and a lot of problems with his neigbours on Latin America caused by the American military base and operation on Colombia, so more US troops won´t make this situation any better.
Seems former Argentina president is doing the mediation between both countries and things will probably be set on a diplomatic way.

Another banana war (as they have been called in the past) A lot of noise, a little shooting, everybody keeps their honor till the next football match. ;-)

Despite warprite's quip, I gotta admit that I'm somewhat impressed that the tone and analysis has been level headed for more than 12 hours on this thread. Perhaps there is hope if the topic is specific/obscure enough.

It'd be a shame if some accord isn't struck between the two. A professor I knew once remarked that South America's relative international peace since the 1930s was one of the more under appreciated happy accidents of the 20th century after all the wars in the 19th and early part of the 20th century. Both countries have serious enough problems to contend with right now; even a brief skirmish would set them back a year or two.

I agree with everyone else. It'll be a lot of trash talking and cheap shots (like a quiet assasination war) but nothing big or organized.

I took 3 years of high school spanish, so I am extremely qualified to talk about this subject....

1. Of course they are going to start a war. When is the last time anything interesting has happened in South America that does not involve a natural disaster? They are just bored and want to say, "Hey! Look at us!"

2. The Venezuelans will win easily! Did you see the 2009 MLB Home Run Derby? All Venezuelans are really strong and will kill you with one well timed swing of a bat.

Case closed.

lol

@Panthers well played sir, well played