Spring 1906:

Sorry for the delay - I wrote something up earlier, and realized that I got something wrong in the tactics, so it was shoddy analysis. So, I'll try this again, and mention some of the interesting moves this turn:

French A Hol -> Kie:

I don't understand the tactics here for a couple of reasons. First off, let me point out that you could have forced Kiel in either of two ways:

1) Mun - Ber, Hol S HEL - Kie, NTH - Den (or Yor - Den, but then you need NWG S NTH as well).

2) Mun & Hol S HEL - Kie, NTH - Den (or Yor - Den, see above).

Both of these carry risk. In the first case, Ber S Kie - Mun is a swap of Kie/Mun, except that it will be difficult for you to get Mun back. In the second case, you can prevent the risk to Mun with Bur S Mun, but then allow a retreat to Ruhr (if you order Bur - Ruh, it carries the same risk of losing Munich). Germany does have proper tactics in response (I would have loved to see SKA S Kie - Den, Den - HEL, Ber - Mun, GoB - BAL, for example), and this war will be a stalemate, as best I can tell, if played perfectly on all sides. But, the point is, you have a one-turn window to take Kiel and force Germany/Russia into a complex defense; if you don't take it this turn, and GoB is put into BAL and Pru is put into Sil, then it's probably dead drawn. So, make sure you take Kiel. As a general rule, if you have a cuttable support and an uncuttable support, use the uncuttable support. :)

Your current set of orders, on the other hand, was not guaranteed to succeed, and actually could have failed for two reasons. First, as I mentioned above, Germany can cut both HEL and Mun. But second, the most likely scenario, given his past moves, is that this particular Germany will continue his passive tactics, so you were most likely to see HEL and Ber S Kie. The problem is, your orders also didn't guarantee taking Kiel against that set of orders! A direct attack cuts a support, but if that attack is cancelled because the convoying unit is dislodged, then it doesn't. If you were going to use Yor - Den to cut the support, then you needed NWG S NTH. Otherwise, if it's power-1 anyway, just use NTH - Den; it gets dislodged just as easily in the face of a power-2 attack, but still cuts the support, and the only major downside I guess is that you might accidentally get into Denmark because Germany does something unexpected, and if that happens, it probably turns out okay. [As a general rule, something unexpected like that leads to chaos and chances for both sides, and if you're the power pushing for a solo, chaos usually works in your favor].

There's a second point here, though, which is that you really want a fleet, not army, in Kiel. What are the places an army can go from Kiel? Den, Ber, Mun, Ruh, Hol. And a fleet? Den, BAL, Ber, Hol, HEL. So, your army can go to Mun and Ruh now but not to BAL or HEL. Which of these places is it most likely to go? You have plenty of internal support, so definitely not Mun/Ruh. On the other hand, a fleet in the Baltic would be quite nice, and even the threat of a fleet in the Baltic is something Russia would be forced to react to.

German F Den S Russian SKA - NTH:

See above, really. You needed to make an inspired guess this turn, and if you got it right, you end up with a line, either a Mun/Ber line or a Kie/Ber line. You picked neither, and as a result, now you have two one-center powers that happen to have the same owner, essentially. Between this and the south, you're now expendable, and that's going to be...problematic. There is a decent chance England will now outlive Germany, but it's now clear that the north will eventually be split between F/R, not F/G/R. If you were going to try and put SKA into NTH, England needed to be giving the support, and you needed to be trying to defend Kiel. (Which, given the French tactical choices this turn, would have worked; along with GoB -> BAL, you would now likely have a place in the draw).

More to the point, though, consider whether you really want SKA in NTH. A quick digression: what is every player now hoping to get out of this game?

England: Survival is unlikely unless somebody gives you a gift, but the goal is to stick around, outlast some of your enemies, and maybe be able to influence the final outcome.

France: You'll be around at the end -- the goal is to find some way to get to 18.

Germany: Find a way to hold a critical position on a stalemate line, so that you cannot be cut out of a draw.

Italy: Find a way to hold a critical position on a stalemate line, so that you cannot be cut out of a draw.

Russia: You'll be around for the end, see if you can find a way to get to 18, although at the moment you're behind in the race against France.

Turkey: It's unlikely that you will be able to hold a critical position on a stalemate line, so instead try to hold a critical position where your non-interference is required for a stalemate line to exist.

So, the problem is that your survival really depends upon being the barrier between F and R, which means you really don't want R in the North Sea; you want F there, and you want your fleet in Denmark holding the line. If Russia were to move forward and the battle lines were drawn at, say, NTH/Hol vs. Bel/ENG, then you're going to be swallowed by Russia. So, don't support a move you really can't afford to succeed. :) You got unlucky that it did succeed, but it was avoidable.

Turkish F ION S Tun:

...and now you've got a line in the south, which makes Germany that much more expendable. Good decision by both of you; Italy now gets to hold a line (so he can't be cut out), and Turkey has the power to cut Italian supports and possibly throw France the solo if it looks like elimination is the alternative.

Italian F Nap - TYS:

Similarly, good recognition that you and Turkey are joined at the hip here.

Italian A Ven S Rom:

...but as before, I don't understand this. Rome is not under threat. Surely there is someplace else you'd rather put Venice. Piedmont's lovely this time of year. Tyrolia would let you actively help your Turkish ally or actively form a barrier around Munich (you really don't want France going to Tyrolia/Piedmont either, right?). Ven S Tri might be reasonable tactics if Turkey knows that support is available. You've only got four units -- make sure you use all four of them.

Turkish F Bul S AEG - Con:

This is an example, like the Russian tactics last turn, of the locally correct solution that creates later problems. F Bul(sc) is going to be a major problem for you now, because it cannot hit Rum. So, for example, Russia now can force Serbia with Vie - Tri, Rum S Bud - Ser. You can order Tri - Bud, so it's a bit of a guessing game (I won't spoil it for you by showing the full set of options; there are better and worse tactics here, and that's for you to decide this turn), but the point is, it's an unfair guessing game biased against you, and it would instead have been a fair guessing game with chances for both sides if you had an army there. Your alternatives would have been worse this turn, so this still might have been the best option, but in a Spring turn, it's always worth considering whether you can give up something short-term and get it back in the Fall. Note that if Italy were in Tyrolia now, the situation would also be greatly improved.

Russia:

I didn't really talk directly about your moves this turn, but I notice again that the unexpected moves on the board often seem to end up working out conveniently for you. It's difficult for me to know what's going on because I can't read the press, but I suspect you did a very good job this turn, and that some of what I discussed above didn't just happen to break conveniently for you by accident.

French Retreat: NTH -> Lon:

This one's likely to hurt you, quite possibly severely. I'll wait until next turn to talk about why, to avoid unduly biasing the outcome.



Most improved: I (by a wide margin), F (pre-retreats), R (including retreats)
Biggest decline: G