Will the Kurds use their new strength in weaponry and territory to claim more autonomy or independence from Iraq. What happens if the Kurds push for full Independence, can the United States support this with its alliance to Turkey and blood equity in Iraq? How will other regional powers and Iraq react? Is an independent Kurdistan possible? desirable?

I think it will majorly depend on the scope of a Kurdistan. Will it just be their holdings in Iraq? Or will it draw from the densely Kurdish areas in Syria, Iran, and Turkey as well?

I would assume that It would be mainly in Iraq as that is the one state that can do the least against Kurdish fighters and needs the Kurds the most. I'm sure Iran would be diametrically opposed to Kurdish areas broken off of Iran and Syria as would Turkey. I also thing the existence of a Kurdistan in any form will be viewed as an irritant in Kurdish areas held by Turkey Syria and Iran, and would likely be opposed vehemently,.

yikes,* would be viewed as an irritant by nations that have kurdish areas.
*Turkey would be diametrically opposed to Turkish lands being separated.

"Is an independent Kurdistan possible? desirable?"

Possible?
I don't know WHAT'S possible in the Middle East right now...it's been a hell of a year for the region, and that's saying something.
Desirable?
I should think so...I said I supported an independent Israel AND Palestine because all peoples should have a home state...that goes for the Kurds as well, they've suffered too long under the reign of Saddam and persecution in Turkey.

That Turkish alliance is definitely tricky, and with the Russian situation intensifying, that strategic position is precious, to be sure.

But we keep trampling on ethical rights in the region, for nation after nation...it's a difficult balance...

The Kurds will start with trying to get an independent state in Iraq and hold off on the pieces from the others until they are stronger. For now they are trying to sell oil using a pipeline through Turkey and don't want to get cut off economically by upsetting them.

From Diplomacy you learn not to start wars on all fronts until you are powerful enough to win them.

"because all peoples should have a home state..."

We've got over 200 tribes here in the US trying to get officially recognized so they can be treated as sovereign states with all their rights.

Whether Iraqi Kurdistan becomes independent depends entirely on what happens with the Islamic State.

it's not just the mosul dam. The physical rescue of many of the Yazidi from Sinjar was largely a Kurdish operation and essentially saved the face of much of the international community for them. If they get denied independence for at least the de facto Iraqi kurdish territory and maybe whatever gains they made then it would be a pretty shameful mark against that same internat. community

The success at saving many Yazidis would matter little if the Islamic State marches into Erbil. Which is still possible.

As I said, the fate of the Kurds rests completely on what happens with this barbarian state-let in upper Mesopotamia. How the Islamic State is defeated or how it is victorious or how it is able to maintain the status quo is what will guide whether Iraqi Kurdistan becomes de jure independent rather than the de facto independence they've more or less had for well over twenty years.

In a wide swath of the Middle East, the terrorists have won. Syria and Iraq barely still exist. If it can happen there, why not Lebanon? Why not Jordan? Why not Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf? The issue of Kurdish independence is important, but hardly the big issue here. We are seeing modernity melt away in a vital part of the world, replaced by an objectively evil death cult committed to world domination. This is the biggest crisis of any of our lives.

The IS already marched on Erbil... and lost.

And I think there is A LOT more factors than ISIS here. If you think that the US will surely support independence you just don't get the forcs at play here

"
In a wide swath of the Middle East, the terrorists have won. Syria and Iraq barely still exist. If it can happen there, why not Lebanon? Why not Jordan? Why not Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf?"

Because Iraq and Syria were essentially failed states with oppressed ethnic minorities w(or in Syria, Majorities) who abetted IS and had only contrived militaries to stand in their way. This won't happen in Jordan or in Saudi Arabia any time soon. I am convinced that ISIS will implode in short order

@ SantaClausowitz: "I am convinced that ISIS will implode in short order"

I would like you to be right.

Since ISIS stands for "Islamic State in Iraq and Syria", I don't see them trying for Saudi Arabia any time soon.

Since they don't refer to themselves as ISIS, I don't see how that's relevant.

abge - i haven't been able to confirm that, do you have a link?

http://www.cnn.com/2014/06/29/world/meast/iraq-developments-roundup/

"And I think there is A LOT more factors than ISIS here. If you think that the US will surely support independence you just don't get the forcs at play here"

Sure there are other factors. But the Islamic State is the determinative one. If it did not exist we wouldn't be at the threshold of Kurdish independence like we are now.

Where are you getting the idea I think the United States will surely support Kurdish independence? If anything we will oppose it as long as there is a glimmer of hope Iraq can endure as a state.


"Iraq and Syria were essentially failed states with oppressed ethnic minorities w(or in Syria, Majorities) who abetted IS and had only contrived militaries to stand in their way. This won't happen in Jordan or in Saudi Arabia any time soon."

Jordan and Saudi Arabia are just as fragile and artificial as Syria and Iraq were, if not more so. In Saudi Arabia much of the populace is already wholly sympathetic to the kind of rule the Islamic State promises. An attack may not be imminent, but it's still a real risk. One that both countries are taking extremely seriously, mind you.


"I am convinced that ISIS will implode in short order"

What are you basing that on? That they were barely drive off a dam the other day? What exists in upper Mesopotamia today is EXACTLY what we have been fearing for almost a decade and a half. The most radical and wicked form of Islam possible has control of vast swaths of territory and access to pretty much unlimited money from oil sales.

I hope you're right, but I cannot see a scenario where this wildly successful group collapses because of a few airstrikes on its frontier.