I'm now back (mostly), though still trying to get caught up. In general, the tactics were pretty good this turn, but let me mention a couple of things worth discussing:
French F TYS H:
Could have been a misorder, given that Italy did support it twice. However, I'd point out that in general, putting that fleet into the Ionian is better both for attacking Italy and for pushing past Italy. And it's the latter that you really need to be thinking about most strongly (see below).
Russian F Swe - SKA:
In general, be careful making moves you don't want to succeed. You didn't expect SKA - NTH to work, but if it had, you really wanted to be Swe, not SKA, right? Further, if it failed, most likely it failed because of NWG S NTH - Nwy, in which case Nwy retreats to StP, and you don't really like that outcome, either. So, you had basically three realistic options, all of which involved some guesswork in order to be useful:
1) Swe S Nwy (guess that Germany won't hit Swe and France will hit Nwy with power 2, most likely convoying Edi)
2) Lvn S Swe - BAL (expecting a power-2 attack from Germany or expecting Den S NTH - SKA, which lets you set up a Swe/BAL perimeter).
3) Swe - Den (trying to cut a support for NTH and hoping you catch France and Germany being clever swapping fleets).
Of these, I think 2) was a clear best guess in a Fall turn, when you care the most about keeping Sweden for another turn. In the Spring, 2) is still a very good guess, but I wouldn't have complained if you picked 3) or 1), probably in that order, with one major exception: in either case, you need to send Lvn - BAL, not to GoB; you really, really want to be in BAL instead tactically, and if you don't get into BAL, it means you're still in Sweden.
French A Edi - Yor:
I don't understand this move at all. As with Gascony earlier in the game, you want to put units in the places that give them the greater number of useful things to do. From Edi, both NWG and NTH can convoy the army, so you have more threats. From Yor, only NTH. You could then send it to Lon, allowing convoys through both NTH and ENG, but you have no fleet in ENG, nor are you likely to have one for at least two more turns, by which point you really hope that army is no longer in England. A Edi H would have made a lot more sense in this case.
Germany: Combined set of orders:
This turn, it looks like you ended up moving against both Russia and France. This is likely to get you swallowed, even if you do gain Swe; you'll have to find one of them that you can work with, or else you die. So don't attack both -- do your best to read the situation diplomatically and trust your read, and if they're both out for your centers, then you weren't going to survive the experience anyway. By attacking both, you actually make yourself a less useful ally to either one, which means you have less to work with when you try to get one of them turned around.
So, with that said, let's talk strategy for a moment. We're now at the point in the game where we find out whether somebody can reach 18. The Turkish NMR obviously doesn't help, so let's take a moment and try to count to 18 for the remaining players in the game.
France: From this position, we expect France to get Tunis, Munich, Holland, making 12. How can France get six more?
In the northeast, there are basically two lines that can be set up against France. The most forward is to stop France right at Nwy/SKA/Den/Kie. Losing Mun makes this tougher, but it's not fatal. If, say, Denmark is breached (it's actually a bit more complicated than this, so I'm speaking roughly here), then Kiel is also lost, Norway, Sweden, and StP are also lost, but Berlin can be held. If Berlin is also lost, it can be easily held by France one taken. So, France is likely to get either 0, 5, or 6 more in the north in a winning war. Note that last caveat, though! The lines I just discussed assume major fleet superiority, and right now, France has three northern fleets, the same number as Russia. Germany has two more. So, even if France builds another F Bre this year, it's just as likely that France will be defending as attacking in the north. Still, if France commits to the north, then the upshot is that reaching Berlin means 6 centers and a win.
What about the south? If France gets to the Ionian (see above), it is difficult but not quite impossible for defenders to hold Rome/Naples (if France gets both, it keeps both in most cases). Beyond that, a French fleet in the Adriatic will likely get Venice, and to go past that, France probably needs to break into either the Aegean or Bohemia. So, a French push in the south likely gets it another 0, 2, 3, or more, with several stopping points along the way.
So, what's the conclusion for France? The conclusion is that basically either Berlin or Rome are the targets, but that there's no obvious immediate path to victory because if Germany turns around, even Denmark looks pretty challenging at the moment.
And what about Russia? Russia looks weak at the moment, but a quick check will show that there are basically no stalemate lines in the way of growth. If Russia were to be the victor in Scandinavia (putting it on 11, including Bul), what's in the way of getting most of the current Turkish centers (add 6)? Or Berlin? Or having fleet superiority and menacing England (again, there's no defensive line...). In other words, Russia looks weak, but if you let Russia out of its current box, it's weak with explosive growth potential.
This combination probably has the most meaning for Germany, as it tries to make its decision. Germany does not want to, for example, stop the French solo in a way that makes it expendable. Rather, for Germany to end up in the draw, it must be a non-removable part of a stalemate line in the end. So, there's a bit of brinksmanship -- you want to get a threat so dire that everybody else is afraid to remove you, but obviously not so dire that you give up a solo. Even worse, the quickest path to making France that large of a threat runs straight through your centers, and if you end up holding one solitary unit in Berlin, it's easy for the other players to agree to cut you out of the draw. So, you'll have some thinking to do.
The same thing applies here to both Italy and Turkey. Italy wants to be a key part of a line, and could end up holding that line against either France or Russia, but if it shrinks too quickly, won't be part of either. Turkey, on the other hand, isn't going to be on the front lines, and thus needs to fine an essential role for itself where removing it would mean a solo for somebody. England has done a good job of staying alive and finding a role, but will only be in a draw if it can cut a deal where somebody keeps it in.
Should be a fun next couple of turns!
Most improved in the last year or so: F, R
Largest decline: T (NMR tends to do that), G
New Game
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