"That's not why I said they aren't rational actors. It is more the fact that they are who they are that leads me to believe they aren't rational actors. If you actually want to believe they are rational actors, then we're never going to get anywhere, because they aren't."
"It doesn't take careful planning to take over an empty, unguarded wooden box in the middle of Oregon. The fact that they know what they want to accomplish shows organization, but that's about it."
They are who they are and therefore aren't rational? Their behaviour in this instance is rational because they have actually put thought and careful planning into it. It takes a lot to organise a year-long stay in a facility that is not one's own. They have prepared plans to brings food and supplies to the building. They have instigated this standoff in the hopes of engaging with the government on a legal matter they believe cannot be settled elsewhere. I do not understand how you could interpret their actions as irrational.
"....and in 2018 we'll hear from them again."
We wouldn't see them taking over other facilities if the government would be more responsive to their grievances. I can't predict what will happen in the future, but you may be right if the government continues to treat them the way it has been up until this point.
"Every human being alive today is capable of some degree of rationality. It is a basic evolutionary and anatomical trait of our species. The Bundy family represents the zeroth percentile of rationality. They have some, but no more than is necessitated by their anatomy. Other human beings, such as you and I, choose to train ourselves to become more rational because we know that it is better for us, and through years of rationality training - i.e. education in both school and the world - we end up making the decision not to invade bird sanctuaries when we get upset."
You're drawing another caricature here, aside from describing these people as stupid. You're saying that the decision to occupy this wildlife preserve is the first response rather than the last one. This is not the case.
"Happy now?"
Very. I just had a slice of pecan pie.
"I'm glad you trust them not to fire first. They said they are willing to kill and be killed. That's indication to me that they'll shoot if they feel threatened, not if they get shot at. The former will happen first. Therefore, my bet still stands. Find me some of Cliven Bundy's teeth."
I am not understanding the link between being willing to kill and being willing to shoot first. There are numerous situations in which the ranchers kill people and do not shoot first.
"Also, the Hammonds were tried under the suspicion that they set fire to the land to cover up poaching on government property, not to protect themselves from wildfires. That's why they call it arson."
OK, so the first fire was to cover up poaching, but the second one seems to be about protecting their winter stores. Regardless, I do not think that a five year sentence is reasonable, and I also generally oppose mandatory minimums.
"Besides, if they actually wanted to do that, they could have gone to the proper agency and put aside their fear of the big bad gubmint for a little while in order to get the proper assistance necessary to set a fire line on their own property. It's a very worthwhile insurance policy if you're in a fire-prone area, which they are, and that makes setting the fires on their own even stupider."
In the second instance, the ranchers had to act quickly because there was imminent danger to their stores. But even if that's not true, I don't see why the ranchers should have trust in the government. First, I'll say that the Hammonds are not the ones who have seized the wildlife sanctuary and so are not the ones who necessarily have mistrust of the "big bad gubmint". It is entirely possible that they don't trust the government anyway, and I will elaborate on why that's reasonable shortly. The Bundys and their friends, on the other hand, espouse a particular political philosophy that states that the government should not regulate the minutiae of their lives.
We can debate the degree to which the government does do this some other time, but I will say that there is the perception amongst the Bundys and others that the government does overreach in many scenarios. To put it in simple terms, why should the government tell me how I should run my ranch? I know my land, I know my work, and the bureaucrat sitting in an office far away doesn't get it. This is an entirely reasonable viewpoint because the vast majority of the direct interaction between the ranchers and the government will be in a quasi-antagonistic: regulations can be seen as impositions upon the ranchers, taxes can be seen as unwelcome burdens, etc. The ranchers won't often get to see the direct effects of, say, national defence. This is all to say that while there are counterarguments to the idea that the government overreaches and is generally opposed to the interests of ranchers, the affected parties tend not to see it that way.
"You also fail to recognize that the government appealed the initial sentence, which the Hammonds had already served, getting it adjusted to the legal minimum sentence. Whether you like legal minimum sentences or not (I know I don't), they didn't do anything ridiculous. They have no grievance. If you're going to skew the facts to sympathize with them, you should go out tomorrow and bust some clays to knock the rust off and then head out to Oregon and join them."
No, I recognise that the government appealed the initial sentence. I think that the ranchers have a legitimate grievance here because (1) mandatory minimums are stupid and (2) it's ridiculous to add time retroactively to a sentence. I do not know if (2) is in widespread practice, but even if it is, it should not be and people should be protesting it. Just because it says so in a law doesn't mean it's not ridiculous.