MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

Fluminator - town
Bonatogether - town
aarodactyl - town
Jamiet - town
Chaqa - town
HR - townish vibes
PR - townish vibes
EMC - townish vibes
Worcej - townish vibes (weakest town read)

I think our pool should be out of these. I don't know how to read any of these people yet, but Bozo's VCA seems the sketchiest at a glance.
Damo
Donny Dude
Bozo
Celaph

What votes do you find suspicious?

[bozotheclown]

I'm convinced
##Vote Bozo

##vote bozo

Why does Fluminator voting for me make you want to vote for me?

[aarodactyl]

I'm convinced
##Vote Bozo

##vote bozo

Why does Fluminator voting for me make you want to vote for me?

I was going to say that for some reason I trust their voting but I just looked back and say they voted for Bona D2 and emc yesterday. Maybe it’s possible to trust flum not to think they’re bad at voting.

[aarodactyl]

This is reminding me of how I refused to vote flum last game enough though they claimed mafia.

[bozotheclown]

Before it was very rare for a VT to lie about being a PR. It was considered very anti-town and a risk to outing PRs. And if you were found out lying, you would almost always get daykilled.
To hide the power roles it was basically "never talk about it" instead of "half the players pretend to be it"

I think Hellenic Riot was correct earlier in his assessment that pretending to be the PR is generally wrong.
The gambits in M62 were interesting to me because they were "too audacious to be mafia" -- not objectively, but in the context of what people expected from mafia that game.
We don't know yet whether these have been good, but informational roles are a bit tougher because the mafia can falsify some claims (e.g. if you clear a mafia or guilty a town). I tend to think the gambits here have worked to keep mafia from killing the real Cop, but it's hard to know with the info we have right now.

I agree that what has been going on with cop soft claims has the potential for helping mafia more than town. I am now fairly confident you are town, but my first thought when BunnyGo was NKed was that it would be a good scum play for you to NK him since he had a fake innocent scan on you, since it is assumed the mafia were trying to hit the cop.

[President Eden]

Before it was very rare for a VT to lie about being a PR. It was considered very anti-town and a risk to outing PRs. And if you were found out lying, you would almost always get daykilled.
To hide the power roles it was basically "never talk about it" instead of "half the players pretend to be it"

I think Hellenic Riot was correct earlier in his assessment that pretending to be the PR is generally wrong.
The gambits in M62 were interesting to me because they were "too audacious to be mafia" -- not objectively, but in the context of what people expected from mafia that game.
We don't know yet whether these have been good, but informational roles are a bit tougher because the mafia can falsify some claims (e.g. if you clear a mafia or guilty a town). I tend to think the gambits here have worked to keep mafia from killing the real Cop, but it's hard to know with the info we have right now.

I agree that what has been going on with cop soft claims has the potential for helping mafia more than town. I am now fairly confident you are town, but my first thought when BunnyGo was NKed was that it would be a good scum play for you to NK him since he had a fake innocent scan on you, since it is assumed the mafia were trying to hit the cop.

Yea celaph made the same general observation earlier - you are going one level deeper which is more or less on-brand.
Obviously I'm incentivized to say this no matter what, but Cop is our biggest weapon and mafia have no counters except the nightkill, so it'd shock me if they were knowingly shooting VT Bunny here.

Maybe we should be asking who actually believed Bunny was the Cop.

[bozotheclown]

I think Hellenic Riot was correct earlier in his assessment that pretending to be the PR is generally wrong.
The gambits in M62 were interesting to me because they were "too audacious to be mafia" -- not objectively, but in the context of what people expected from mafia that game.
We don't know yet whether these have been good, but informational roles are a bit tougher because the mafia can falsify some claims (e.g. if you clear a mafia or guilty a town). I tend to think the gambits here have worked to keep mafia from killing the real Cop, but it's hard to know with the info we have right now.

I agree that what has been going on with cop soft claims has the potential for helping mafia more than town. I am now fairly confident you are town, but my first thought when BunnyGo was NKed was that it would be a good scum play for you to NK him since he had a fake innocent scan on you, since it is assumed the mafia were trying to hit the cop.

Yea celaph made the same general observation earlier - you are going one level deeper which is more or less on-brand.
Obviously I'm incentivized to say this no matter what, but Cop is our biggest weapon and mafia have no counters except the nightkill, so it'd shock me if they were knowingly shooting VT Bunny here.

Maybe we should be asking who actually believed Bunny was the Cop.

I thought it was possible BunnyGo was the real cop trying a WIFOM play to look like he was protecting the cop, but I think after D4 it is possible the mafia were avoiding a more likely cop to avoid the doc protection.

[bozotheclown]

I think Bonatogether's inability to keep his HR/worcej and Hamilton/worcej theories straight make his reads look fabricated. However, I have a feeling where this day is headed with all the cop WIFOM, so I am going to move my vote to celaph for now.

##VOTE celaph

[President Eden]

And to be clear - I am leaning towards Bona is town. I think the VCA shows him to be the scapecoat for the scum and if I am wrong, which is normally the case, and bona is scum, then the last scum must be one of bozo, HR, and Flurga.

Vote an actual mafia instead then

[President Eden]

How the fuck is emc ahead of me and #2 overall in posts today.

[bozotheclown]

How the fuck is emc ahead of me and #2 overall in posts today.

You should look at M55 D2 to see what emc is capable of.

[Donny Dude]

I am looking back at people who have died and something really bugs me, it may have been discussed but since d4 was mostly about emc and hb I thought I would bring up the kills so far and scumteam.
The bunny and demon I see plausible explanations for in pr hunting. The one I do and do not get is rdr though. It could be a pr kill like the above two, but he seems to be killed quite often by scumteams. But his presence in this game was not a strong one by any means, I don't think. So my conclusion is that the remaining team is mediocre and not super terrible or excellent. But another point I want to make is by night 3 two scum with good play usually had died, though eod2 led to some terrible play on their part, so to me this points to someone who has played a lot with rdr or has enough of an experience to kill him. Celaph I believe is quite new so based off this bona +celaph are not the remaining scum. Who here prioritizes historically as scum pr hunting over removing obv town If you think of anyone who matches that we may be able to narrow down a bit though wifomy.
Demon
Vecna
Rdr
Bunny

[celaph]

@donny I reread everyone and have some changes related to my earlier list. My problem is that I see reasons to townread almost everyone to some degree. One consequence of that is I think I can post decent defenses for Bona, Bozo, and myself. Of these I think Bona makes for the best kill as I have the easiest time building a scum Bona narrative.

Jamie -- Obvtown for all the same reasons as last time.
Aaro -- Very likely town. I think he is very self-reflective and generally acting pro-towny. I think aaro's annoyance with ghug's D2 tunnel threat feels genuine. I don't think that aaro's reads (here and here) come from a SvS place and his D2 ghug vote looks good. I also like their movement from EMC to HB feels natural and looks good after the HB flip.
PE -- Very likely town. Maybe this will age like milk, but the overall arch of PE this game reminds me of kgray last game. A towny who does most things correctly, but will be targeted long term for VCA. I stand by my earlier read that I think their townread of me comes from a towny place as well as my more recent comments that I think they look good after Bunny flipped.
HR -- Likely town. Will skip as I just explained most of my thoughts on him. The only scum HR arguments I've heard have come from HB and Bona and are/were full of holes.
Worcej -- Lean town. I don't think the ghug Worcej D2 interactions were SvS. I think Worcej looks good for his vote on ghug D2. I'm inclined to give him a town point or two for weird posts D3.
Donny -- Town lean. Two things scare me about Donny. The first is that I feel the post he is getting the most town credit for is not his. Secondly, I see some of myself in his play: he makes insightful comments, but isn't the one to lead a push. He has a lot of good posts, but it doesn't feel like they materialized into good votes D2. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt because I think he deserves it, but if there is a deep threat, I think it’s him.
Flum/Durga -- Lean town, but don't hate killing and would love to have a cop scan for. The obvious scar on their gameplay is their defense of scum most notably ghug, but otherwise I don't mind their play. I think a lot of Durga's D1 is pro-town. Flum's D2 looks like town Flum from last game though maybe he changed his style after I commented on it then. I struggle a bit with his inactivity, but I'm tempted to call in NAI for now though I'd like to see more in the future.
Bozo — Town lean to null. Bozo hyper-focuses on details in the thread. Sometimes I think he is focusing on a really key detail and sometimes it feels like he’s focusing on something way off target. That makes him hard to evaluate particularly with a VCA that is meh at best. For example, he has very good analysis of both HB and BB, but I dislike his push on ND/Worcej.
Bona -- Lean town to null, though I don't hate flipping. Intentionally left off for later.
Chaqa -- Town lean to null. I worry that I'm giving Chaqa extra scum points out of fear. I don't think the D1 ghug Chaqa interactions were scum theater. His general play strikes me as pro-town. I'm seeing a lot more interactions with conf scum than last game. I think this pressure on HB looks good post flip.
Damo -- Town lean to null. I think his reasoning this game has been much easier to follow than last. I think his pressure on HB looks good. Overall I think damo looks good in VCA, but I love basically nothing he has posted.
EMC -- Null. I am not a particularly big fan of EMC's D1-3. It felt like he was speaking a lot, but not saying much. I struggle to point so someone he has pushed before HB and even then he shaded the HB wagon. It felt like the most thought he had given to anything is Bozo's colors. In terms of VCA, he doesn't look good. Lastly, I don't entirely agree with Chaqa's idea that scum EMC would shoot him. I'm not sure what to think about rdr, but I think bunny would definitely be a higher priority kill than Chaqa.

[celaph]

Bona -- Lean town to null, though I don't hate flipping. Rereading Bona again I think it's really easy to construct both scum Bona and town Bona narratives though I will mostly focus on the town points because I think the scum Bona narrative is already out there.
I'm inclined to believe that scum Bona flips me looking for PR if he thinks I'm faking VT play. Bona's denial of 2 scum wagons D2 strikes me as more of a defense of himself than an attempt to save BB. I think it was not unreasonable to think that HR was referring to him after being the second wagon at EoD particularly if he wasn't even caught up yet. I think Bona's N2-D3 as a whole felt genuine. Bona's whole HR/Worcej reminds me of last game how he had no idea how the mafia members think. His push on Bunny feels like it is coming from a place of annoyance and I think scum Bona would be more worried about the holes in it. Lastly I think I townread him for this self vote + end, but it also makes me want to kill him.

[celaph]

Anyway I've decided that I need to claim maximum clout if my read of the N1 Mafia QT is actually correct, so I'm going to sheep damo's guilty on celaph and then vote aaro out D6 and win.

##VOTE celaph

I don't know if Damo is cop, but he doesn't have a guilty on me.

[damo666]

What info do we get if Bona flips town?

[Jamiet99uk]

Catchup time. I see endvotes and apparently a cop claim?

[Jamiet99uk]

Anyway I've decided that I need to claim maximum clout if my read of the N1 Mafia QT is actually correct, so I'm going to sheep damo's guilty on celaph and then vote aaro out D6 and win.

##VOTE celaph

I don't know if Damo is cop, but he doesn't have a guilty on me.

Damo has not declared himself Cop or declared a Guilty scan on anyone.

Why is President Eden talking shit?

[Jamiet99uk]

President Eden has posted a great deal of well-written prose in this game and appears somehow possessed of supreme confidence in himself despite also appearing to change his mind every hour or two, and being wrong on many occasions.

Makes you think. Could it all be one great performance?

[Jamiet99uk]

Bonatogether self-voting and end-voting on himself isn't clever but I'm torn between whether it means he's frustrated town, or scum that's been told to self-vote in order to look like frustrated town.