MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Fluminator]

PE reminds me of me before I got jaded with the game and entered nirvana.

[celaph]

well obviously.....that doesnt mean the bun didnt pop out of the oven

SSSSDHHHHHHHHHHH

Also I don't think there's any hiding this: The doctor needs to save Hamilton tonight. And then we hope HB was just being HB.

This feels exceptionally towny to me from HR. While I mocked him last game for his poor reads, I think his game sense in knowing to fake claim PR was spot on. Seeing that here as well. I understand the impulse to hide HB's vote, but I think this is the mechanically right move and HR was on it.

[bozotheclown]

The way ghug voted for ND D1 looks like a bus, as well as this post N1 before voting worcej at the start of D2:

I guess I can't talk because my wagon was shitty too, but I'm still annoyed at all of you.

Then worcej voted for ghug all D2, without ever pushing for ghug to be the DK.

brainbomb's cop claim did not make much sense as town, despite the fact it resulted in ghug getting DKed. I think it makes more sense as ghug's teammate.

PE's strong push on ghug at the beginning of D2 only to vote for Bonatogether over him at EOD is suspicious. I said earlier that PE vs. ghug reminded me of bussing between PE and Ezio in a previous game (M1002), and I think this may really have been the same type of thing.

BunnyGo's changing his vote from Bonatogether to ghug supposedly because aarodactyl was voting for ghug did not make sense:

Hardclaim cop with an inno on Aaro

get off me

##Vote bona

Hardclaim cop with an inno on Aaro

get off me

##Vote bona

Wait...sheep the inno ##vote ghug

BunnyGo could have decided it was better to bus ghug there rather than look like he was voting to save ghug, especially if brainbomb and ghug are both his partners.

Also, there was PE calling out BunnyGo for his recent history of not posting at night as scum, only to drop it, and BunnyGo questioning ghug D1 about his character name and ghug's strong reaction to it.

PE and ghug also started the brainbomb wagon D2 when ghug and Bonatogether were the top wagons, that could have been an attempt to pull off some ghug voters to brainbomb and get Bonatogether DKed, while getting in a bus of brainbomb and keeping the option of moving back to Bonatogether open, which ghug and PE both did.

With all of these strange connections between ghug, PE, brainbomb, and BunnyGo, I think they could all be scum together. Also, with the potential mutual bussing between ghug and ND/worcej, as well as the reasons I previously suspected the ND/worcej slot, I think the remaining scum are worcej, PE, brainbomb, and BunnyGo.

[Donny Dude]

Bozo, this is more of what I have been wanting from you, but I have one issue. Your scum team would be very active if that is the case. I don't know if a scumteam in general would want to be that active, it seems contrary to lying low and making it easier to make connections once one person fell.
For d1 it would need #1(Bunny) #2(Ghug) #3(PE) #6(BB) and nd with the least before worcej replaced in.
For N1 No posts for bunny #1(Ghug) #2(PE) #3(BB) #5(Worcej)
For d2 #1(PE) #3(BB) #4(Ghug) #7(Worcej) #11(Bunny)
I think I got the rankings right and anyone can check on the bot.
These are the ranking for most posts during phase which does not always mean content.

[Vecna]

He doesn't necessarily lose against you. There were lots of other wagons popping up and down. He could have pushed any of them. Why try to start a wagon on a goon when you or others were playable? It's possible. Maybe he was realizing he was done and was distancing with brain, but I don't think it's as clear cut as you make it.

That's what happened - he tried to start a counterwagon but then it died and he lost.

It's pretty clear that brain is scum. He defends himself AT NO VOTES AND BARELY ANY SUS, which I think is signally ghug that he's willing to take one for the team. Ghug, having picked up on this, repeatedly tries to get a brain speedwagon. It almost works, but it dies, and he gets voted.

Yeah, this seems to be the correct interpretation of events

[Vecna]

Ahem, my name is Durganator this game.

Do you care to answer for your better half gaslighting me while I was in the middle of destroying a mafia with the white-hot fury of a thousand suns?

She's always been kind of susceptible to ghug's buddying. rip

Well, you have anywhere between ~49 and 96 hours to obvtown depending on hammering speed if this is the case.

[Vecna]

And indeed Jamiet and Aaro have been acting really weird around my claim all day

Because it was weird. You’re high on a lot of sus lists and you appear and go “I was role blocked”

This is very fair.

Jamiet definately was acting the weirder part. Especially the way he was nudging Bunny. It almost seemed like he knew Bunny was the real RB target and he wanted bunny to cc me there at EoD.

[Vecna]

It doesn't really make sense for Bona to be mafia here.

ghug was the most valuable mafia role, and were Bona mafia, the reasoning from HR, rivera, et al was really solid. Bona should have been bused to save ghug. A third front shouldn't have been opened on brainbomb.

If Bona is town, then the mafia might have been wary enough of the optics of dogpiling a townie to save the most powerful mafia role to hesitate. A third front splits up the votes enough that they can consolidate at the last minute to ensure ghug doesn't die.

I don't think the RB is more valuable than the Godfather, personally.

Exactly. This very well might have been a ploy. A ploy designed to trigger later in the game most likely, but a ploy all the same.

Jamiet for godfather 2024

[Vecna]

I think you are right about the Godfather being a stronger role than the Roleblocker, for what it's worth.

But now that I think about it...

PE, I don't think damo is going to happen today

Yea I think ghug is just dead here. If it's ghug/Bona/worcej then most of the leftover votes are likely to break for ghug.

The way this is happening is really sketching me out.

In the world where ghug is Roleblocker and Bona is Godfather, opening a third front is silly. Their less valuable power role was about to get killed. Why risk shuffling the votes around with a third front and potentially end up losing your more valuable power role? At that point it's better for ghug to distance from Bona and hold the L.

If Bona is Goon, then again opening a third front is silly, except they're supposed to bus Bona instead of letting ghug hold the L.

If Bona is town, then maybe it makes sense to open a third front that would shake up the votes, with the hope that the shakeup breaks against Bona in the end. A straight up dogpile on Bona would be too risky, but if I'm leading a yeetwagon on brainbomb, they have their shakeup and they didn't even have to do it.

This is all independent of brainbomb's alignment. For evaluating the logic of the Bona/ghug situation, I'm not sure that it matters whether brainbomb is town or mafia.

The obvious reasoning to me is: If Bona flips town, Ghug will be the defacto wagon again tomorrow.

If Ghug starts a brain wagon and it flips scum, Ghug will appear to be a hero (if we magically forget about the weirndess that lead to it)

[Vecna]

I am thinking that finding scum #2/3 though I think brainbomb is scum so #3 should be the priority of tonight. Although tonight /day 3 may reveal useful information, the remaining scum I predict will try to position themselves to look townier and I don't want to as town run into a summit fever where taking out the weaker members means the rest can hide and watch us argue. Eden, do you think the eods od d1/d2 are similar in regards to how there was a third wagon split and so Worcej's wagon should be looked at or is it better to focus on d2? Although now that I type that HR and Worcej alignments are unknown.

I like to think that we've had an incredibly pro-town atmosphere this game that will prevent those kinds of pitfalls. There's very little tunneling, and the few significant TvT arguments (e.g. Jamie and myself) resolved themselves without being major distractions to the thread. We just have to avoid complacency and apathy, which is what derailed town last game.

EOD1 and EOD2 were definitely similar in the sense that each had three meaningful wagons, yea. The trouble I have in comparing them is that we don't know that we had a mafia up for grabs at EOD1. A lot of the meaningful speculation about other wagons' alignments in EOD2 has come from the fact that ghug flipped mafia.

Solving worcej's alignment would be helpful to understanding day 1 for sure. I think ghug and Durga were probably the only two mafia on that wagon, but I've mentioned before that the specific interpersonal dynamics among those two and ND would make a bus there appreciably likely when it would normally be a ridiculous play. It does bother me how much my two mafia suspects from that wagon were shouting down the HR kill and trying to steer people toward ND... I'm not sure that I can get anything productive out of this though lol.

To be fair, certain people -have- to shout down a HR (or Vecna, or KGray etc) wagon on day1 in any scenario, because thats what theyd always do as town as well.

[Vecna]

##vote Jamiet

I actually agree with EMC after reading his full iso. I had the same strong gut feelings before. Made the classic Vecna decision to let a single post change my mind.

The fact everyone is townreading jamiet again this game is just further evidence. The guy would have walked all over you chumps last game as well if it wasnt for Durga.

Also, this EMC wagon needs to die. Shame on whoever is on it.

I think I'm going to sheep Vecna on this for now. He correctly townlocked EMC on D1 last game where I was far less certain. There are probably better kills the next few days.

I also think that EMC's post after I left does a good job summarizing his feelings and commits him to a spot. Not sure how I feel about the Jamie read.

Pretty strange jump after scumreading me all game

[BunnyGo]

I think you are right about the Godfather being a stronger role than the Roleblocker, for what it's worth.

But now that I think about it...

PE, I don't think damo is going to happen today

Yea I think ghug is just dead here. If it's ghug/Bona/worcej then most of the leftover votes are likely to break for ghug.

The way this is happening is really sketching me out.

In the world where ghug is Roleblocker and Bona is Godfather, opening a third front is silly. Their less valuable power role was about to get killed. Why risk shuffling the votes around with a third front and potentially end up losing your more valuable power role? At that point it's better for ghug to distance from Bona and hold the L.

If Bona is Goon, then again opening a third front is silly, except they're supposed to bus Bona instead of letting ghug hold the L.

If Bona is town, then maybe it makes sense to open a third front that would shake up the votes, with the hope that the shakeup breaks against Bona in the end. A straight up dogpile on Bona would be too risky, but if I'm leading a yeetwagon on brainbomb, they have their shakeup and they didn't even have to do it.

This is all independent of brainbomb's alignment. For evaluating the logic of the Bona/ghug situation, I'm not sure that it matters whether brainbomb is town or mafia.

Go look at the vote history. There were MANY lead wagons with under 2 hours to go. There's no easy strategy there where things are shifting fast.

[celaph]

##vote Jamiet

I actually agree with EMC after reading his full iso. I had the same strong gut feelings before. Made the classic Vecna decision to let a single post change my mind.

The fact everyone is townreading jamiet again this game is just further evidence. The guy would have walked all over you chumps last game as well if it wasnt for Durga.

Also, this EMC wagon needs to die. Shame on whoever is on it.

I think I'm going to sheep Vecna on this for now. He correctly townlocked EMC on D1 last game where I was far less certain. There are probably better kills the next few days.

I also think that EMC's post after I left does a good job summarizing his feelings and commits him to a spot. Not sure how I feel about the Jamie read.

Pretty strange jump after scumreading me all game

That is a fair point, I didn't mention that I think you're town now. Probably a good indication that I should post an updated reads list at some point tonight.

[celaph]

And indeed Jamiet and Aaro have been acting really weird around my claim all day

Because it was weird. You’re high on a lot of sus lists and you appear and go “I was role blocked”

This is very fair.

Jamiet definately was acting the weirder part. Especially the way he was nudging Bunny. It almost seemed like he knew Bunny was the real RB target and he wanted bunny to cc me there at EoD.

Did I miss something? Where did Bunny claim RB'd? I thought Bunny was one of the people who bought Vecna's RB claim?

[damo666]

Oh hell the bot isn't loading for me, can't see the votes.

This supports emc's explanation for being off main wagons.

[damo666]

I suspect there were no bussers on the ghug wagon.

I think it is entirely possible the entire scum team was on Bona. Alternatively 4 plus Celaph.

I doubt more than 1 scum off Bona.

Brain is obviously the best DK candidate for tomorrow.

Almost certainly a ghug voter will die tonight. I suggest all ghug voters post there best guess at remaining 4 scum close to EON.

[Jamiet99uk]

Hello, fellow communists

[Jamiet99uk]

I see Vecna has admitted his roleblock claim was fake. I don't necessarily scumread him for that. Standard Vecna stuff.

[brainbomb]

so it sounds like im gonna be dead soon. Recall that the last time I was scum I outted my team by accident. Look at end of day and explain to me why I would claim cop in that moment if im scum with ghug. doesnt really make a lot of sense unless bona was town and I had put my every egg into the basket that bona would die instead.
I have a past habit of being bored as scum, lazy, and bus heavy. If this were true in this game id simply stay on ghug all day. Flum is correct I was scum with ghug and bussed him all day 1 that game. He flipped and our scumteam collapsed.
Anytime im scum my team is defeated by day 5. Im simply not good at scum, not here at least. I can play a great scumgame on other forums but generally im not passionate as scum.
In this game ive been heavily invested, excited, active and not lazy. my actions got ghug killed. my claim got ghug killed. I had lost my read on him there but the fact is still my actions toppled the maf roleblocker. It makes no sense in 7 min left to claim cop as scum if my buddy is also dying.

But if you plan to just hammer me im vt so go ahead. was fun I suppose

[Vecna]

Because it was weird. You’re high on a lot of sus lists and you appear and go “I was role blocked”

This is very fair.

Jamiet definately was acting the weirder part. Especially the way he was nudging Bunny. It almost seemed like he knew Bunny was the real RB target and he wanted bunny to cc me there at EoD.

Did I miss something? Where did Bunny claim RB'd? I thought Bunny was one of the people who bought Vecna's RB claim?

Bunny popped in around EoD and seemed very surprised I was claiming RB.

Scum have been subtly pointing it out towards eachother (see brainbomb/ghug interaction i pointed out earlier).

The way jamiet and some others were talking to bunny either feels like more of the same, or them knowing he was the real RB target and trying to incite him to cause some shit to draw away attention from Ghug.

Also, the fact Bunny did nothing with it, hasnt said anything about it.....

Whats up with that bunny?