MAFIA 63: THE SCOURGE [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

Ok, I can see how you come to this conclusion. How long have you held this belief?

Since d3.

I went back and read your ISO a bit, and this seems to check out.
I am curious then as to four things.
1) Why did you vote emc yesterday when you didn’t think emc was mafia according to your theory?
2) Why didn’t you vote Brian yesterday when you did think Brian was mafia according to your theory?
3) Why do you suppose Hellenic Riot was so vocal about killing Brian when emc was a viable counterwagon?
4) Why did you seem to think Bunny was mafia for parts of Day 4, when your theory would say he was town?

1) I prefer competitive wagons even if I vastly prefer one wagon over the other.

2) See 1)

3) Because it distances them when they really need to clutch it.

4) It'd be better to push people now in case I find out my theory is wrong.

[President Eden]

Bona feels too sus to be mafia.

Imma feel real stupid if that’s wrong.

I’ll explain when I’m back at my computer

[Bonatogether]

Bona feels too sus to be mafia.

Imma feel real stupid if that’s wrong.

I’ll explain when I’m back at my computer

Don't worry, people said that last game too.

[President Eden]

Basically I don’t get why Bona, as mafia, would go to the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game where he buses two of his partners, maybe three, and then proceed to contradict this grand theory in several places—not meaningfully questioning or pushing HR, OMGUSing Bunny, leaving the Brian wagon for shoddy reasons knowing how bad it would look when Brian inevitably flipped.

Again I find “mafia messed up” is a perfectly reasonable answer to my concerns that also fits the narrative of the game. I certainly won’t be surprised if Bona flips mafia. I just think I would expect him, after going through the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game that gives him several days of cover to railroad his vote, to stick to it and be conscientious about consistency.

[Bonatogether]

Bona feels too sus to be mafia.

Imma feel real stupid if that’s wrong.

I’ll explain when I’m back at my computer

Don't worry, people said that last game too.

<a lot of other reads>
a guy who might just be to scummy to be scum
bona

[aarodactyl]

Bona feels too sus to be mafia.

Imma feel real stupid if that’s wrong.

I’ll explain when I’m back at my computer

Don't worry, people said that last game too.

<a lot of other reads>
a guy who might just be to scummy to be scum
bona

No one is arguing this? Also seeming scummy but being town last game doesn't give you a free pass to be scummy always.

[Bonatogether]

Don't worry, people said that last game too.

<a lot of other reads>
a guy who might just be to scummy to be scum
bona

No one is arguing this? Also seeming scummy but being town last game doesn't give you a free pass to be scummy always.

I'm saying there's a pattern here that lines up with Eden's post.

[celaph]

I wonder if the cop has been unlucky with scans. It's odd to me they haven't put anything out at EoN yet.

Probably a combination of the following:

unlucky scans
no inno scans under any pressure
any guilty scan being strongly wagonned anyway

together with being highly confident of not being NK'd (which indicates somebody not being very strongly townread which suggests town will be in great shape post reveal).

As the doc didn't save last night there is a reasonably good chance they targeted the cop last night so the cop will be in danger tonight and I would be very surprised if we don't get a reveal tonight.

I agree with most of the assessment here except this last paragraph. I see no reason to think that the doc would have an easier time finding the cop than scum and thus no reason to think that doc targeted them last night instead of Bunny.

[celaph]

##Unvote

So I guess I'll explain sorta what I was thinking with this whole EMC thing. And bare in mind, I didn't have this entirely planned out from the get-go. On Day 2, I decided to push EMC with some relatively flimsy reasoning, trying to hint I may have a guilty on him. I was curious to see who would follow along and also to see if I would draw a night-kill over it.

Obviously, ghug's flip necessitated the mafia kill Vecna first, so I had to continue the charade into Day 3, when we got brainbomb. Knowing now that the cop was going to be our best asset, I tried slightly to double down on the hints I had a guilty on EMC. I feel like Bunny's fake-copping was more convincing, but also I think if EMC were scum, I'd have been shot on Night 3 or 4.

I actually have thought EMC was town for sure since yesterday, but I had some urgent stuff come up IRL and couldn't be around to explain or pull votes to a different wagon.

I continued this today to see who would keep following me on it, but the confusion might be getting too deep now.

Anyway, I think EMC is town. Despite all evidence, I think Bona is probably town as well. Eden, I'm less sure on.

I think PE looks pretty towny from Bunny's death. Finding the cop is scum's #1 goal right now and scum PE knows that Bunny is not the cop (one of Bunny's hyposcans was an inno on him). I don't think the town cred for PE and removing town Bunny are worth voting on someone who is confirmed to not be the cop.

[Hellenic Riot]

Basically I don’t get why Bona, as mafia, would go to the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game where he buses two of his partners, maybe three, and then proceed to contradict this grand theory in several places—not meaningfully questioning or pushing HR, OMGUSing Bunny, leaving the Brian wagon for shoddy reasons knowing how bad it would look when Brian inevitably flipped.

Again I find “mafia messed up” is a perfectly reasonable answer to my concerns that also fits the narrative of the game. I certainly won’t be surprised if Bona flips mafia. I just think I would expect him, after going through the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game that gives him several days of cover to railroad his vote, to stick to it and be conscientious about consistency.

Who did Bona actually bus, though?

He was completely absent through D2 sitting on an unvote until he showed up less than 10 minutes from EoD by his own admission, at which point the votes were Bona 5, ghug 5, Brain 4. He voted ghug - And his only other possible choice was Brain, so he had to choose between voting the RB and voting the Godfather. Hardly some intense bus. His EoD posts put up barely any fight whatsoever, as shown here: https://i.gyazo.com/d5852a51d7e259d72ce ... 45255b.png - So Bona certainly garners no credit for 'bussing' there.

Come N2, when I point out that there's no way that EoD makes any sense whatsoever unless multiple scum wagons existed, Bona immediately comes in to strongly disagree: https://i.gyazo.com/e0fda109a8343dc165a ... 5b0eb0.png - Only after brain starts getting called out does Bona join in, and given there was an open QT for scum to talk in at this point it's very possible that Brain just tells his partners to hardbus him in said QT, especially as Brain essentially surrendered and made no real attempt to argue his way out of the fait accompli of him being scum. This would stack with Bona showing no interest in brain until other people point out how Brain backing off ghug looked terrible, and then Bona suddenly ratcheting up to being absolutely certain brain was scum.

So that leaves Hamilton Brian - Who Bona makes no mention of whatsoever until yesterday, which is when he starts mixing up me and Brian: Which does not look like a simple typo given he continues to push the theory until it's later pointed out (By me!) that his theory linked worcej & me, not worcej & HB. Which strongly implies that he forgot who his theory was about, not that he simply typed HB instead of HR by accident. Which in turn implies his theory is bullshit he made up and not something he actually believes.

As for the rest of the day... https://i.gyazo.com/3a5152c0579d4447b27 ... 9e0e2c.png

There's no bussing of HB whatsoever - It's the complete opposite, he instead shades HB's wagon, implies it's stagnant and therefore people should give up on it, and votes emc to put him ahead of HB. He later joins the wagon that HB & Damo started on me as an attempt to bring a third wagon into play.


---

So in total, Bona bussed one partner (Brain) when it was already pretty much guaranteed that Brain would die the next day, and when there was ample opportunity to co-ordinate that in the scum QT. He barely defended himself when he showed up at EoD2 when his teammate's were the only viable counterwagons. His teammates all showed reticence or refusal to vote him that same day. And he's repeatedly forgotten who his apparently firmly believed scumteam theory consisted of - And repeatedly been happy to vote other people instead of it.

[Hellenic Riot]

I wonder if the cop has been unlucky with scans. It's odd to me they haven't put anything out at EoN yet.

Probably a combination of the following:

unlucky scans
no inno scans under any pressure
any guilty scan being strongly wagonned anyway

together with being highly confident of not being NK'd (which indicates somebody not being very strongly townread which suggests town will be in great shape post reveal).

As the doc didn't save last night there is a reasonably good chance they targeted the cop last night so the cop will be in danger tonight and I would be very surprised if we don't get a reveal tonight.

I agree with most of the assessment here except this last paragraph. I see no reason to think that the doc would have an easier time finding the cop than scum and thus no reason to think that doc targeted them last night instead of Bunny.

We can safely conclude that the Doctor did not target Bunny last night from the fact that Bunny died

[celaph]

I am only willing to vote for the following today:

celaph HR Flum Bozo Donny [that order]

I don't think I'm a big fan of any of the first 3 people on this list. I'm conf town (to myself).

I think HR is likely town. I liked his handling of the HB cop situation N2. I also think his pushes on HB yesterday and how HB initially wanted to push HR look good for him. And I think his push on Bona, while I'm not sure if it's correct, comes from a really towny place.

I haven't seen a particularly compelling argument for scum flum besides the ghug defense. Besides that, I think Durga's D1 and Flum's D2 looked pretty towny. Flum's activity has fallen off as of late so maybe the pressure would be well placed there, but I'm not convinced he is a good kill.

[celaph]

Probably a combination of the following:

unlucky scans
no inno scans under any pressure
any guilty scan being strongly wagonned anyway

together with being highly confident of not being NK'd (which indicates somebody not being very strongly townread which suggests town will be in great shape post reveal).

As the doc didn't save last night there is a reasonably good chance they targeted the cop last night so the cop will be in danger tonight and I would be very surprised if we don't get a reveal tonight.

I agree with most of the assessment here except this last paragraph. I see no reason to think that the doc would have an easier time finding the cop than scum and thus no reason to think that doc targeted them last night instead of Bunny.

We can safely conclude that the Doctor did not target Bunny last night from the fact that Bunny died

Fair point. :)

Though obviously I misspoke. Obviously the doctor didn't target bunny, but I do not see that as evidence to suggest that they targeted the cop.

[President Eden]

Basically I don’t get why Bona, as mafia, would go to the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game where he buses two of his partners, maybe three, and then proceed to contradict this grand theory in several places—not meaningfully questioning or pushing HR, OMGUSing Bunny, leaving the Brian wagon for shoddy reasons knowing how bad it would look when Brian inevitably flipped.

Again I find “mafia messed up” is a perfectly reasonable answer to my concerns that also fits the narrative of the game. I certainly won’t be surprised if Bona flips mafia. I just think I would expect him, after going through the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game that gives him several days of cover to railroad his vote, to stick to it and be conscientious about consistency.

Who did Bona actually bus, though?

He was completely absent through D2 sitting on an unvote until he showed up less than 10 minutes from EoD by his own admission, at which point the votes were Bona 5, ghug 5, Brain 4. He voted ghug - And his only other possible choice was Brain, so he had to choose between voting the RB and voting the Godfather. Hardly some intense bus. His EoD posts put up barely any fight whatsoever, as shown here: https://i.gyazo.com/d5852a51d7e259d72ce ... 45255b.png - So Bona certainly garners no credit for 'bussing' there.

Come N2, when I point out that there's no way that EoD makes any sense whatsoever unless multiple scum wagons existed, Bona immediately comes in to strongly disagree: https://i.gyazo.com/e0fda109a8343dc165a ... 5b0eb0.png - Only after brain starts getting called out does Bona join in, and given there was an open QT for scum to talk in at this point it's very possible that Brain just tells his partners to hardbus him in said QT, especially as Brain essentially surrendered and made no real attempt to argue his way out of the fait accompli of him being scum. This would stack with Bona showing no interest in brain until other people point out how Brain backing off ghug looked terrible, and then Bona suddenly ratcheting up to being absolutely certain brain was scum.

So that leaves Hamilton Brian - Who Bona makes no mention of whatsoever until yesterday, which is when he starts mixing up me and Brian: Which does not look like a simple typo given he continues to push the theory until it's later pointed out (By me!) that his theory linked worcej & me, not worcej & HB. Which strongly implies that he forgot who his theory was about, not that he simply typed HB instead of HR by accident. Which in turn implies his theory is bullshit he made up and not something he actually believes.

As for the rest of the day... https://i.gyazo.com/3a5152c0579d4447b27 ... 9e0e2c.png

There's no bussing of HB whatsoever - It's the complete opposite, he instead shades HB's wagon, implies it's stagnant and therefore people should give up on it, and votes emc to put him ahead of HB. He later joins the wagon that HB & Damo started on me as an attempt to bring a third wagon into play.


---

So in total, Bona bussed one partner (Brain) when it was already pretty much guaranteed that Brain would die the next day, and when there was ample opportunity to co-ordinate that in the scum QT. He barely defended himself when he showed up at EoD2 when his teammate's were the only viable counterwagons. His teammates all showed reticence or refusal to vote him that same day. And he's repeatedly forgotten who his apparently firmly believed scumteam theory consisted of - And repeatedly been happy to vote other people instead of it.

This is pretty compelling. And it'd probably be best if he answered for himself instead of having me cover for him.

Bona, I think I laid out the most reasonable case for you being town that I could justify. HR has pretty convincingly dismantled it. What do you have to say about this?

[bozotheclown]

From the first post to the second, why did your characterization of celaph change from him being town for being the same as last game to him "consciously emulating last game", which seems to imply he could be scum trying to look like town?

Dammit bozo I was questioned about this at the time and I had an explanation for it.

I did not see that when I asked the question, but your answer seemed to be that the first list was not accurate because you only posted it to avoid getting voted. Is that correct?

[bozotheclown]

Calling Bona voters

If Bona is scum why on D2 when the brain wagon started to diminish didn't he switch to brain (or anyone else for that matter) thus sacrificing himself in favour of the power roles [and with any luck he might get a tie], that has to be better than staying on ghug surely?

The brainbomb wagon did not diminish until brainbomb claimed cop. If Bonatogether had voted for anyone else D2 at the end, ghug would be implicated if Bonatogether had been the DK.

[bozotheclown]

Basically I don’t get why Bona, as mafia, would go to the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game where he buses two of his partners, maybe three, and then proceed to contradict this grand theory in several places—not meaningfully questioning or pushing HR, OMGUSing Bunny, leaving the Brian wagon for shoddy reasons knowing how bad it would look when Brian inevitably flipped.

Again I find “mafia messed up” is a perfectly reasonable answer to my concerns that also fits the narrative of the game. I certainly won’t be surprised if Bona flips mafia. I just think I would expect him, after going through the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game that gives him several days of cover to railroad his vote, to stick to it and be conscientious about consistency.

As I pointed out earlier, Bonatogether theory is a combination of things suggested by Donny, BunnyGo, and aarodactyl.

[Bonatogether]

Who did Bona actually bus, though?

He was completely absent through D2 sitting on an unvote until he showed up less than 10 minutes from EoD by his own admission, at which point the votes were Bona 5, ghug 5, Brain 4. He voted ghug - And his only other possible choice was Brain, so he had to choose between voting the RB and voting the Godfather. Hardly some intense bus. His EoD posts put up barely any fight whatsoever, as shown here: https://i.gyazo.com/d5852a51d7e259d72ce ... 45255b.png - So Bona certainly garners no credit for 'bussing' there.

Come N2, when I point out that there's no way that EoD makes any sense whatsoever unless multiple scum wagons existed, Bona immediately comes in to strongly disagree: https://i.gyazo.com/e0fda109a8343dc165a ... 5b0eb0.png - Only after brain starts getting called out does Bona join in, and given there was an open QT for scum to talk in at this point it's very possible that Brain just tells his partners to hardbus him in said QT, especially as Brain essentially surrendered and made no real attempt to argue his way out of the fait accompli of him being scum. This would stack with Bona showing no interest in brain until other people point out how Brain backing off ghug looked terrible, and then Bona suddenly ratcheting up to being absolutely certain brain was scum.

So that leaves Hamilton Brian - Who Bona makes no mention of whatsoever until yesterday, which is when he starts mixing up me and Brian: Which does not look like a simple typo given he continues to push the theory until it's later pointed out (By me!) that his theory linked worcej & me, not worcej & HB. Which strongly implies that he forgot who his theory was about, not that he simply typed HB instead of HR by accident. Which in turn implies his theory is bullshit he made up and not something he actually believes.

As for the rest of the day... https://i.gyazo.com/3a5152c0579d4447b27 ... 9e0e2c.png

There's no bussing of HB whatsoever - It's the complete opposite, he instead shades HB's wagon, implies it's stagnant and therefore people should give up on it, and votes emc to put him ahead of HB. He later joins the wagon that HB & Damo started on me as an attempt to bring a third wagon into play.


---

So in total, Bona bussed one partner (Brain) when it was already pretty much guaranteed that Brain would die the next day, and when there was ample opportunity to co-ordinate that in the scum QT. He barely defended himself when he showed up at EoD2 when his teammate's were the only viable counterwagons. His teammates all showed reticence or refusal to vote him that same day. And he's repeatedly forgotten who his apparently firmly believed scumteam theory consisted of - And repeatedly been happy to vote other people instead of it.

Addressing your points:

Paragraphs 1 and 2: This establishes that any bussing that may have happened was extremely poorly done, if there was any. This doesn't implicate me.

Paragraph 3: Any bus of brain wouldn't get anyone any credit because, like you said, brain gave up. This doesn't show anything.

Paragraph 4: So I messed it up a couple times. Sue me. Can you show any flaws in the actual theory?

Paragraphs 5 and 6: Again, I don't see how this shows that I'm scum. All actions that day line up with my stated beliefs in competitive wagons.

Summation Paragraph:
A lot of this is the same points, but the last accusation, that I've been willing to vote people who aren't him or worcej, I don't view as majorly scum indicative, since I'm not going to only do what my theory indicates. I have other thoughs.

[Bonatogether]

Dammit bozo I was questioned about this at the time and I had an explanation for it.

I did not see that when I asked the question, but your answer seemed to be that the first list was not accurate because you only posted it to avoid getting voted. Is that correct?

It was just to get something out.

[Bonatogether]

Basically I don’t get why Bona, as mafia, would go to the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game where he buses two of his partners, maybe three, and then proceed to contradict this grand theory in several places—not meaningfully questioning or pushing HR, OMGUSing Bunny, leaving the Brian wagon for shoddy reasons knowing how bad it would look when Brian inevitably flipped.

Again I find “mafia messed up” is a perfectly reasonable answer to my concerns that also fits the narrative of the game. I certainly won’t be surprised if Bona flips mafia. I just think I would expect him, after going through the trouble of creating a grand theory of the game that gives him several days of cover to railroad his vote, to stick to it and be conscientious about consistency.

As I pointed out earlier, Bonatogether theory is a combination of things suggested by Donny, BunnyGo, and aarodactyl.

My theory about worcej and HR or the case against me?