I'll check them for him, makes more sense given I have a data dump.

Against seven players who have played all countries equally frequently the odds for you getting the countries were, before the games in progress were started:

A:E:F:G:I:R:T
2048:64:16:16:1:2:64

Now its:
128:64:16:16:1:2:64

Wow... even with 4 in the row, you still have pretty good odds of getting Austria again.

Dingle, I'm talking about since the move to the new location a few weeks ago. Sorry for the confusion. But I am still interested why all of the last 4 have been Austria. Bad luck I guess. I don't really know what the numbers are on the countries I've played and don't mind playing any of them, just find it strange to end up with the same country 4games in a row. Thanks Mr. G for the date. It would be even better if I could read it. I'm unsure what the ratios mean.

Dingle, you have always been such comfort to me. I can hardly wait for the next game to start.

It seems like the odds are powers of two. That means that if you have played very little Austria, you'd have an enormous chance of getting Austria now (where it says 2048, you'd have 92% chance of getting Austria). In the last game you joined it should have been 256 for Austria, meaning slightly more than 60% chance of getting Austria. Now, it's down to 43% if I understand it correctly.

Clever system.

Besm,
Essentially what is means that before the last for games started, you had a 92% chance of getting Austria, because BEFORE the move, you didn't get Austria very often.

Even after getting Austria the last 4 times, you still have a 44% chance of getting Austria in your next game, a 22% chance of each England and Turkey

Date, BESM? I'm not that sort of guy.

A much better explanation than karma which would mean I play Italy, Aus, or Ger for the rest of my life. So, that means I'll get to play Turkey and England sometime soon as well. Thanks all. I feel even more special now than I did before. I think I'll go back talking to Pinky about world domination. See you all in a game sometime soon.

"I think I'll go back talking to Pinky about world domination. "

Hmm, that would seem to suggest you are 'The Brain'?

If it's any consolidation, your current chance of getting Italy is about 0.34%. If you play six more games as every other country, it'll be up to 0.68%. Six more games with every other country and you'll finally be above 1%.

It will be a long time until you get Italy.

So using this, my chances would be...
E:F:I:G:A:R:T
4:4:8:1:2:1:1?

Very clever....
I've played:

E:F:I:G:A:R:T
1:0:1:1:1:1:0

Would that mean that I will get either France or Turkey in my next game?

It means you are more likely to get either France or Turkey. Not that you definitely will.

Perry, that means your odds are:

2:1:2:2:2:2:1

whoops, I mean:
1:2:1:1:1:1:2

I'm interested in taking out stats on my own play , in the future, after playing more.
What countries I've played, or how I've done, for example.

I am sure that these things are only available for the Mods. But I still thought I'd ask. Le_Roi for example seems to be able to take out some stats?

Does the ratio use all games including country takeovers?

I think they must include country takeover.
If you add upp the total number of plays for each country, you come up with the following:

Austria 7 912
England 7 776
France 7 757
Germany 7 836
Italy 7 840
Russia 7 855
Turkey 7 837

I'm only a newbie to this site though! There might be something I don't know/understand here!

Very interesting data anyway!

Cheers //Perry6006

The ratio is only supposed to be based on games assigned at start, not takeovers. I can't confirm that as I haven't seen the code, but that is what Kestas says it does.

If this has been addressed, and I've skipped over it, then the below should be useless.
Calculating statistics for country chances, unless I've got it wrong, is easy.
First, find out how many times you've played each country. Then, take the highest number, say 5 for Germany, and make that your base, 1. Each consequent chance, say 4, then 3, and so forth, is a higher power of 2. The highest is 2^0, followed by 2^1, and so forth. So, if you've played:
A:E:F:G:I:R:T
4:3:5:2:2:3:4
Your chances are...
2^1:2^2:2^0:2^3:2^3:2^2:2^1
Or....
2:4:1:8:8:4:2

I suppose it depends on the other people's chances of getting a country too. If all 7 players have a 0.00001 chance of getting France someone is still going to get it... How does the system handle balancing everyone's chances against each other?

That's a good question, Jacob. I don't think I've seen that part of the equation explained yet and, without code to look at, only Kestas can explain it.

I believe this is very close to how it works, Jacob. Copy the following into notepad, then open it with excel or another spreadsheet program that can take csv (eg openoffice):


,Austria,England,France,Germany,Italy,Russia,Turkey,
Player 1,8,2,1,1,2,8,4,
Player 2,16,1,1,2,8,4,16,
Player 3,1,1,2,4,4,1,8,
Player 4,2,1,2,1,1,1,8,
Player 5,2,1,2,1,1,4,4,
Player 6,1,2,4,2,1,8,2,
Player 7,2,1,1,4,2,16,2,
SUM:,32,9,13,15,19,42,44,
,,,,,,,,
Probabilities for getting Austria:,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
Player 1,8/32,,,,,,,
Player 2,16/32,,,,,,,
Player 3,1/32,,,,,,,
Player 4,2/32,,,,,,,
Player 5,2/32,,,,,,,
Player 6,1/32,,,,,,,
Player 7,2/32,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
Suppose player 1 gets Austria,,,,,,,,
Probabilities for getting England:,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
Player 1,0,,,,,,,
Player 2,1/8,,,,,,,
Player 3,1/8,,,,,,,
Player 4,1/8,,,,,,,
Player 5,1/8,,,,,,,
Player 6,2/8,,,,,,,
Player 7,1/8,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
etc.,,,,,,,,

That is, if you don't want to have to read it in csv form.

There is a mistake there, I'm pretty sure.

Kestas said that the first player to be given a country is the most "unbalanced" one.

So if every player has a really low chance of getting France, the player with the most "balanced" probabilitys is the one who will most likely take it.

This is right, I believe:

,Austria,England,France,Germany,Italy,Russia,Turkey,SUM:
Player 1,8,2,1,1,2,8,4,26
Player 2,16,1,1,2,8,4,16,48
Player 3,1,1,2,4,4,1,8,21
Player 4,2,1,2,1,1,1,8,16
Player 5,2,1,2,1,1,4,4,15
Player 6,1,2,4,2,1,8,2,20
Player 7,2,1,1,4,2,16,2,28
,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
"Probabilities ""normalised"" to give same sum for each player:",,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
,Austria,England,France,Germany,Italy,Russia,Turkey,SUM:
Player 1,0.307692308,0.076923077,0.038461538,0.038461538,0.076923077,0.307692308,0.153846154,1
Player 2,0.333333333,0.020833333,0.020833333,0.041666667,0.166666667,0.083333333,0.333333333,1
Player 3,0.047619048,0.047619048,0.095238095,0.19047619,0.19047619,0.047619048,0.380952381,1
Player 4,0.125,0.0625,0.125,0.0625,0.0625,0.0625,0.5,1
Player 5,0.133333333,0.066666667,0.133333333,0.066666667,0.066666667,0.266666667,0.266666667,1
Player 6,0.05,0.1,0.2,0.1,0.05,0.4,0.1,1
Player 7,0.071428571,0.035714286,0.035714286,0.142857143,0.071428571,0.571428571,0.071428571,1
SUM:,1.068406593,0.41025641,0.648580586,0.642628205,0.684661172,1.739239927,1.806227106,
,,,,,,,,
Now we work out who gets Austria:,,,,,,,,
Odds are:,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
Player 1,0.2880,,,,,,,
Player 2,0.3120,,,,,,,
Player 3,0.0446,,,,,,,
Player 4,0.1170,,,,,,,
Player 5,0.1248,,,,,,,
Player 6,0.0468,,,,,,,
Player 7,0.0669,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
Say player one gets Austria,,,,,,,,
"Now we calculate the odds for getting England, for each player:",,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
Player 1,0,,,,,,,
Player 2,0.0625,,,,,,,
Player 3,0.142857143,,,,,,,
Player 4,0.1875,,,,,,,
Player 5,0.2,,,,,,,
Player 6,0.3,,,,,,,
Player 7,0.107142857,,,,,,,
,,,,,,,,
"And so on, through the countries.",,,,,,,,

I'm not sure of the order of the countries, or even if it matters.

The order can matter, and I don't know how that is calculated.

TGM, read my post that got kinda lost in between yours, from what I remember Kestas saying, I think you're wrong.

It's players that are selected in a given order to take a country depending on their probability array.

How do you mean, Xapi?

I understood from a post by Kestas that the current code does something like this:

1) Calculate the "probability unbalance" each player has, as a number. A player with equal probability of taking each country has a "p.u." of 0, a player with a probability of 1 to take a given country, 0 for the rest has a "p.u." of infinity.

2) Take the most unbalanced player. According to his probabilities, assign a country to him.

3) Take the next most unbalanced player. Excluding the country(s) already assigned, assign a country according to his probabilities.

4) Repeat 3) until there is only one country and one player left.

5) Assign that country to that player :P

Oh right, so two people "want" a country as much as each other (and want it more than average), but one is more even with the other countries, the one who is more even is likely not to get it?

I guess. The point is that if you have an unbalanced history, you're likely to balance it out quicker, because you're assigned a country first, whereas if you have a somewhat balanced history, you'll just get whatever the rest left for you.