Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[Foxcastle]

Squigs-Town
Foxcastle-Town
Balki-Mafia
TrPardo-Mafia
Connor-Town
Percy-Mafia
darg-Town
Carl Tuckerson-Mafia
et-Mafia
Moscow-Mafia
Nepthys-Mafia

Any element of nuance there? 7 Mafia members sounds interesting.
Have any rough probabilities?

ITEM.This looks like Connor possibly trying to elicit more information about Flavius's early reads list that included 3 accurately identified mafia. Maybe he was hoping a more nuanced read would downgrade some of the starker scumreads Flavius had made.

But I keep going back to whether scum-Flavius would scumread 3 teammates without even townreading one of the others... I just don't buy that as a scum-Flavius strategy. He thinks he's clever, and this doesn't seem clever.

Nice to see I'm not going to be completely looked over.

By 'the genre' I mean general deception games, games which heavily involve lying to others. (Werewolf, Resistance, Secret Hitler, and Coup, to name a few)

Hey fun. I like Coup. I've not played the others.

I hope you like reading.

Whether I do or don't I'm going to have to pretend I do..

ITEM. An old saw around here is that only scum joke about being scum. This isn't a joke. But it's in the same vein.

Whether I do or don't I'm going to have to pretend I do..

Why?

I may have misinterpreted...
I understood 'I hope you like reading' to mean in general, in this game, since I imagine I will have to do that a lot to keep up.

I may have misinterpreted...
I understood 'I hope you like reading' to mean in general, in this game, since I imagine I will have to do that a lot to keep up.

I guess I was curious about your use of the word "pretend." I'm understanding from this that you don't like reading in general, but that you're going to try to keep up in the thread. Is that right?

Very correct.

ITEM. See, Teacon, this is why you don't fucking answer the question for the target. Because it looks like you were honing in on "only scum have to pretend to read the thread," and it looks like Connor was about to fumble that answer before you provided him with an out.

Jesus Christ, catching up has taken me way longer than expected but I didn't want to start commenting until completely up to date. I feel so refreshed with knowledge. (opinions)

1. I am almost certain Carl is town

2. I think Squigs likely is aswell.

3. I am genuinely very glad Chippe has been able to reintegrate back into this game. I thought the end was near close to the end of my catchup.
(I don't think I need to say he is clearly town)

4. 'Lurkers'. While I think it is quite early to assume Mafia from someone who's hardly posted, bozo's seeming lack of care to post literally anything of importance makes me highly suspicious.

5. I have no idea about Flavius.

6. From my fairly unimformed opinion, Balki seems scum, don't read too much into that though.

7. I think teacon is Mafia, annoyingly I'm finding this hard to justify, but discounting Chippe's actions as scum, and eagerness to lynch lurkers are hard for me to ignore. So I am going to have to respectfully ##VOTE teacon7

ITEM. Interesting that his townreads on people we now know to be town are pretty firm, but (assuming Connor scum) his scumread on Balki is hedgy and fake scumread on Teacon is also hedgy...

Also, at this point, Balki is pushing Flavius hard, and if Connor's scum, it looks like he's trying to ignore that so he doesn't have to take a position on his teammate's obvious mislynch.

ITEM. Connor has a big post on p. 65. Some points:
---He says he "trusts" Balki, so that's a progression from his guess of a scumread 24 hours before. In responding to TrPrado's question (in this same post) about why Balki seems scummy to Connor he says, "He doesn't anymore. I don't really know how I got that impression."
---He scumreads Teacon for pouncing on Teacon, but then in the next point simply calls it "weird". Why the shift? That's not even hedgy, that's just inconsistent.
---He tries to defend Moscow against accusations that MF is lurking by pointing out he got on a plane. (In contrast to Bozo, who was around but only casually participating. That's not how "lurker" is usually used here, but that's not the point.)


So that's Connor's Day 1. I'll do Flaviu's Day 1 now for parity, and then try to get to the rest of both.

[Foxcastle]

I have a feeling Balki is faking BA and is really scum but it is no matter as in which case he is NK'd tonight. I think the way Flav is floundering in a panic stricken way is scum indicative and supports my scum Balki hypothesis.

Wow. I may have included this in my scum reread several pages ago, but I think this is worth a look again.

This is late in D3. Balki has led town on a merry chase by claiming Blind Assassin, and Xorxes is about to be lynched. Damo knows Balki is not BA and will almost certainly be killed by the real BA. So my theory here is that Damo is hoping to capitalize on what he knows to be an imminent scum setback to gain some credibility and then mislynch Flavius.

[connorcompton]

Connor, in general was your strategy to read up on the thread before you started typing comments, or did you make notes and comments as you went?

I have usually tried to fully reread everything before making comments. Occasionally I really want to make a comment immediately, or feel like I need to (like when I got roleblocked). I also sometimes make notes if what's left is substantial enough.

[Foxcastle]

Actually, before I get to Flavius, I want to revisit the Damo-Connor roleblock claims.

From at least Day 3, maybe earlier, Damo strongly asserts that Xorxe's RB claim should be taken into account as a reason to not lynch him. This makes me think that it's likely that Damo went into Night 3 presenting a plan to use the roleblock to create additional semi-clear scum.

During the night phase, Damo puts some light scumreading on Connor. But then he nearly four hours before night ends.

After Damo is gone, Connor says he has "a good impression" of Damo, to which Balki asks Connor why, and Connor says: "This has forced me to reread damo's posts. Very glad he hasn't posted too much. That good impression has been downgraded somewhat. I got the impression that he was being honest and up-front, but now I'm not sure where I was getting that from. I think his attempt and justification of ending the day was odd. Going back to a 'don't feel qualified'." Et also gets in on scumreading Connor.

Yeesh. This is a lot of scum harshing on Connor.

This is all very near the end of the night. Connor's last post is 97 minutes before Night 3 ends.

So at this point, scum are in the QT are having or have been having a discussion about what to do. They've determined they're going to holster the RB so that one of them can claim it.

The only thing I can think is that they decided Damo would claim the RB, Damo leaves, and then they change their mind that Connor should claim the roleblock and Connor leaves. At which point Damo comes back and doesn't catch up on the Mafia QT and goes to claim his RB, followed by Connor coming back and not catching up on the Mafia QT or the game thread (and it looks like he didn't read the game thread) and going with what he thought the original plan is that he would claim the RB...

That's kinda a comedy of errors.

And in the end, the judge vote ruined any chance for scum to direct the situation at all anyway...

Is it possible that Flavius is actually the last scum, and the explanation is that Flavius really thought Connor needed to be RB'd, so he did it anyway, despite the mafia's plan?

I think a grand scheme for them both to deliberately claim the RB is least likely. I think Peterlund would have nixed that, and I doubt Damo would have gone for it. Prima facie, it draws too much attention to two scum, even if they do get out of it.

I think Flavius going rogue and ordering the RB on Connor against the wishes of the scumteam is also unlikely. Either they would have negotiated him down, or they would have given into him if he pulled an ultimatum. But I really doubt he did it secretly.

We have some slight evidence that Connor was not reading the thread from how he shows back up to make his claim. And Damo has also demonstrated "post now, catch up later" behavior, so that makes me think that the comedy of errors is at least possible, so I think it's what happened.

[yavuzovic]

I really would like to hear what this RB thing actually is

Thanks Fox but I meant what happened actually. Mafia miscoordination? Clearing the other one when one of them dies?

[Foxcastle]

I really would like to hear what this RB thing actually is

Thanks Fox but I meant what happened actually. Mafia miscoordination? Clearing the other one when one of them dies?

You can read my longer post on it, right above your question here.

Short answer: scum miscoordination.

[connorcompton]

Ugh. Not enjoying this...



Day 3:

Annoyingly, not a lot. This is where Fox and Flav are most at each other's throats though.

Foxcastle:
This is his towniest day so far. Whether or not it was already assumed, I'm not sure, but he basically tells the BA to kill Balki.
He also tells me (and et I think) to vote for either teacon or xorxes. At that point I had not mentioned xorxes, and I had scumread teacon,
so I think Fox was definitely expecting me to vote teacon. His votes are the interesting part, I'll get to that soon.

FlaviusAetius:
He makes it clear that he is not a noob, and wants to be listened to. If this means anything, it means that he is choosing to place himself in
the spotlight, rather than be written off. This seems town. His votes are interesting aswell.

Here are the Day 3 votes:

xorxes (10) — Durga, Percy Williams, Nephthys, teacon7, ND, et, rdrivera2005, Balki Bartokomous, Squigs44, FlaviusAetius
teacon7 (4) — peterlund, damo666, connorcompton, Foxcastle
Foxcastle (1) — ChippeRock
Percy Williams (1) — xorxes

2 scum are on xorxes, 2 on teacon. Both of your votes here seem quite bad (I'm well aware mine is way worse).
Fox joins the Balki wagon halfway through at 5 votes, easily scum-explained by just wanting to get there before his credability gets in the way.
Then as the Balki wagon cools down, he fits in again by switching to Flavius, which scum damo had just previously voted for.
He then joins Durga on xorxes, and stays after Durga leaves. He makes the base of the xorxes wagon.
After rdrivera moves his vote on teacon, Fox, peter, and damo, (and me) all pile on.

Flavius is last to the Balki wagon, then moves onto Fox for a very long time. He is very committed until he (for some reason) becomes
the 10th vote on xorxes. I think this is just an admission of defeat on Fox for the day.



I'm finding it really hard to care at the moment.
I know nothing I type will change your mind. It feels like there are two scum against me.
(No, none of that was a scumslip)

[Foxcastle]

Flav WHO told you Balki was good at this game???

No one did??
Sometimes you can just tell someone is smart or not

ITEM. The whole D1 nonsense with Flavius "knowing" Balki was "smart and experienced" does not look nearly as bad with the knowledge of who was scum (particularly Balki). I think if Balki and Flavius were scum together, it's possible Balki would try to bus Flavius on Day 1, but I think he would do it for a more particular reason, so that he could back off later when that particular reason didn't pan out.

Instead, Balki avoided the particular reason at hand ("smart and experienced") and scumread Flavius more generally. So I think it was a real scumpush on Flavius.

Also, when confronted about how he knew this, Flavius didn't come up with any excuse. He just said "sometimes you can tell." Balki hadn't posted much at all, but he did have a substantial first post. And he's pretty highbrow in how he writes, very confident (as ever, but it's easy to conflate that with smart/experienced) and he refers to knowing several people in the game.

ITEM. Flavius is super confrontational with a lot of people, including scum. That makes it harder to read this, but I think if he were scum he'd tone it down a little. Maybe not all the way down to "go along/get along" but a little...

Anyway, there's a lot of volume and sorting out anything useful from the chaff is not as straightforward as with Connor.

ITEM. N1, Flavius is highly active right after the lynch. I don't doubt that he could certainly be posting a flurry of material in both the mafia QT and the game thread at the same time, that is possible, but that he's posting so much, and so passionately, in the game thread makes me think it's less likely he's also posting in the Mafia QT (where he would be presenting a very different mindset).

[connorcompton]

43 minutes until Mafia victory...

[connorcompton]

Honestly can't wait to find out why Mafia fake claimed roleblock.

[Foxcastle]

Honestly can't wait to find out why Mafia fake claimed roleblock.

You could just tell us now.

[Foxcastle]

I am pretty confident it's Connor.

If it's Yavuz/Flavius, well... I'm not sure what to say about Flavius. But if it is, Yavuz faked his reaction to my vote perfectly.

[connorcompton]

Honestly can't wait to find out why Mafia fake claimed roleblock.

You could just tell us now.

No...

[connorcompton]

30 minutes until Mafia victory...

It's never too late to change your mind...

[Foxcastle]

30 minutes until Mafia victory...

It's never too late to change your mind...

Do you have a reason why we should? What's your best case for why you're not scum?

[connorcompton]

30 minutes until Mafia victory...

It's never too late to change your mind...

Do you have a reason why we should? What's your best case for why you're not scum?

How am I supposed to do that. I know the reasons why the arguments you're making are wrong, but that's completely down to personality and circumstance, and impossible to disprove. Anyway, I don't expect or want you to change your mind.

[Foxcastle]

Yavuz, are you here?

[connorcompton]

I guess I would like to make a closing statement anyway:

This has been an amazing experience. My first real experience with Mafia, making it all the way to the end! Brilliant!
I've had my own thoughts and other's words to comfort me on the way. I've even grown attached to the sheet with all the players' names on.
I feel I've grown from a complete newcomer, to a relative newcomer, and it only took up many hours of my time.
Best thing I've done this month, not going to do it again though, for a while, at least. These games are huge, and I need practise.

And while town has lost, and I do feel responsible for that, I feel better than I have for a while, (well done to the mafia by the way).
Thanks for the experience.

[connorcompton]

Let's talk about this game!

[worcej]

DAY HAS ENDED PLEASE HOLD.