Mafia 46 - Ace Attorney - GAME THREAD

[Squigs44]

Knowing that the RB is the last mafia makes me suspect Fox even more for the simple fact that he was saved by mafia multiple times.

More to follow tonight (hopefully)

[Foxcastle]

How would people feel about requesting an alternate end-game schedule?

My proposal is that, if everyone unanimously supports it (by public vote or by private PM, per the GM's call), we let the mafia have 2 NK's tonight. Basically, if everyone agrees that we're just going to vote no-lynch immediately tomorrow, let's fold that step into the night phase...

If anyone is really going to miss that extra 24 hours of Night 8, maybe we could extend D8 by an additional 24 hours.

##CALL GM: is this possible?

[Foxcastle]

Knowing that the RB is the last mafia makes me suspect Fox even more for the simple fact that he was saved by mafia multiple times.

More to follow tonight (hopefully)

This is the second time you've implied this without anything to back it up. Can you kindly provide some evidence for your claim? Because I don't see it.

[connorcompton]

Interesting probability problem:

A, B, and C are in the final 3 of a Mafia game, person C is Mafia.
One person must be lynched, or town loses. Assume someone will be lynched.
Knowing nothing more about this game, what are the chances town wins?

There are two different ways of looking at this that I can think of.

1) There are three people, one must be lynched, if C is lynched, town win. each has 33% chance. 33% chance town win.

2) From A's perspective, they have a choice of two people. There is a 50% chance they vote correctly. B also has a 50% chance of guessing correctly. For town to win, A and B must guess correctly. 25% chance they vote for eachother, C votes for one of them and town loses. 25% chance of A votes C, B votes A, C will then vote A, town loses. 25% chance the opposite happens, and only a 25% chance they both vote C and town wins. 25% chance town wins.

I'm not really sure here.

Not relevant to the game, but I think it's interesting.

Proposition 2 is phrased confusingly, but it looks wrong to me.

I think it might be, but it seems consistent to me. I'll try and say it simpler.

A has a 50% chance to guess correctly.
B has a 50% chance to guess correctly.
If they both guess correctly, town wins.
0.5 x 0.5 = 0.25
25% chance town wins.

I stated the results of the other 75% to show that they are consistent with the assumption that someone is lynched.

[connorcompton]

Knowing that the RB is the last mafia makes me suspect Fox even more for the simple fact that he was saved by mafia multiple times.

More to follow tonight (hopefully)

This is the second time you've implied this without anything to back it up. Can you kindly provide some evidence for your claim? Because I don't see it.

*(More to follow tonight (hopefully))

Also, I would support cutting down the night.

[Squigs44]

Interesting probability problem:

A, B, and C are in the final 3 of a Mafia game, person C is Mafia.
One person must be lynched, or town loses. Assume someone will be lynched.
Knowing nothing more about this game, what are the chances town wins?

There are two different ways of looking at this that I can think of.

1) There are three people, one must be lynched, if C is lynched, town win. each has 33% chance. 33% chance town win.

2) From A's perspective, they have a choice of two people. There is a 50% chance they vote correctly. B also has a 50% chance of guessing correctly. For town to win, A and B must guess correctly. 25% chance they vote for eachother, C votes for one of them and town loses. 25% chance of A votes C, B votes A, C will then vote A, town loses. 25% chance the opposite happens, and only a 25% chance they both vote C and town wins. 25% chance town wins.

I'm not really sure here.

Not relevant to the game, but I think it's interesting.

Oooh, math!

Yes, if we work under the assumption that the mafia member votes last and votes according to his wincon, then town has a 25% chance to win.
However, what if the order of voters is different, and C votes first, then A then B?
C has a 50/50 of voting A or B.
Let's say he votes A.
A can either vote B or C, but voting B he knows will result in his own lynch or a tie, and not wanting to lose, will vote C. Thus, A will vote C and B has a 50/50 shot of winning.
Let's say C instead votes B.
A can either vote B or C. If he votes B, he loses. If he votes C, he knows B will also vote C, and so A determines the outcome of the game on a 50/50.

So if mafia votes first it's a 50/50, if they vote last it's a 75/25.

Of course this operates under the assumptions of random votes, not changing votes, people using sound logic, etc. So these stats aren't useful, but it's a bit of fun looking at them.

[Foxcastle]

Knowing that the RB is the last mafia makes me suspect Fox even more for the simple fact that he was saved by mafia multiple times.

More to follow tonight (hopefully)

This is the second time you've implied this without anything to back it up. Can you kindly provide some evidence for your claim? Because I don't see it.

*(More to follow tonight (hopefully))

Also, I would support cutting down the night.

I see the "more to follow." That's the second "more to follow" from Squigs on this point, so... time to actually follow, because otherwise it's just unfounded shade.

[Squigs44]

Knowing that the RB is the last mafia makes me suspect Fox even more for the simple fact that he was saved by mafia multiple times.

More to follow tonight (hopefully)

This is the second time you've implied this without anything to back it up. Can you kindly provide some evidence for your claim? Because I don't see it.

Just go look at who all was voting your counterwagons. A lot of mafia. But yeah I'll follow up with more later

[Foxcastle]

Knowing that the RB is the last mafia makes me suspect Fox even more for the simple fact that he was saved by mafia multiple times.

More to follow tonight (hopefully)

This is the second time you've implied this without anything to back it up. Can you kindly provide some evidence for your claim? Because I don't see it.

Just go look at who all was voting your counterwagons. A lot of mafia. But yeah I'll follow up with more later

You're really only referring to Day 4? Because D1 I wasn't a wagon, D2 was et versus EspressoPatronum, D3 was processing Balki and then Xorxes (maaybe you're talking about something here, but that would be a stretch), D5 was Damo, and D6 we only know et's alignment and he had to stick with ND to try to lynch BA.

Except that Peter, et, and Damo all made their votes before the judge vote was called. And yes, there was some competition already between me and Teacon at that point, but Damo and Peter at least would certainly have known that, with 35+ hours to go, there was no need to rush to my defense.

It makes much more sense that they stayed on me because I was actually more scumread than Teacon, so that has the amplifying effect of making me look even worse.

And it makes much more sense in general that scum have been keeping me around hoping that if I'm in the final three, I will be so scumread that it'll be an easy finish.

Also, why would Peter have bussed et on D2, probably the scum's deepest threat if ND hadn't revealed him, and then tried to save me D4? That's ridiculous.

[Foxcastle]

How would people feel about requesting an alternate end-game schedule?

My proposal is that, if everyone unanimously supports it (by public vote or by private PM, per the GM's call), we let the mafia have 2 NK's tonight. Basically, if everyone agrees that we're just going to vote no-lynch immediately tomorrow, let's fold that step into the night phase...

If anyone is really going to miss that extra 24 hours of Night 8, maybe we could extend D8 by an additional 24 hours.

##CALL GM: is this possible?

Actually, I'm not sure I support this...

If we do this, we get 24 hours (this night phase only) to think about the final Day phase, but we have to try to figure it out with 2 extra players as unknowns.

If we run the clock as usual, we get this 24-hour night phase, and then (assuming rapid end-hammering), another 24 hours to think about the last Day phase with one additional player eliminated. That's one additional player's worth of information and we'd be giving up 24 hours to process that...

So, actually, I think this is not a good idea.

[connorcompton]

How would people feel about requesting an alternate end-game schedule?

My proposal is that, if everyone unanimously supports it (by public vote or by private PM, per the GM's call), we let the mafia have 2 NK's tonight. Basically, if everyone agrees that we're just going to vote no-lynch immediately tomorrow, let's fold that step into the night phase...

If anyone is really going to miss that extra 24 hours of Night 8, maybe we could extend D8 by an additional 24 hours.

##CALL GM: is this possible?

Actually, I'm not sure I support this...

If we do this, we get 24 hours (this night phase only) to think about the final Day phase, but we have to try to figure it out with 2 extra players as unknowns.

If we run the clock as usual, we get this 24-hour night phase, and then (assuming rapid end-hammering), another 24 hours to think about the last Day phase with one additional player eliminated. That's one additional player's worth of information and we'd be giving up 24 hours to process that...

So, actually, I think this is not a good idea.

That's a good point. We need the night time.

[worcej]

How would people feel about requesting an alternate end-game schedule?

My proposal is that, if everyone unanimously supports it (by public vote or by private PM, per the GM's call), we let the mafia have 2 NK's tonight. Basically, if everyone agrees that we're just going to vote no-lynch immediately tomorrow, let's fold that step into the night phase...

If anyone is really going to miss that extra 24 hours of Night 8, maybe we could extend D8 by an additional 24 hours.

##CALL GM: is this possible?

GM Note:
I would entertain this if it is unanimously voted for.

[Foxcastle]

How would people feel about requesting an alternate end-game schedule?

My proposal is that, if everyone unanimously supports it (by public vote or by private PM, per the GM's call), we let the mafia have 2 NK's tonight. Basically, if everyone agrees that we're just going to vote no-lynch immediately tomorrow, let's fold that step into the night phase...

If anyone is really going to miss that extra 24 hours of Night 8, maybe we could extend D8 by an additional 24 hours.

##CALL GM: is this possible?

Actually, I'm not sure I support this...

If we do this, we get 24 hours (this night phase only) to think about the final Day phase, but we have to try to figure it out with 2 extra players as unknowns.

If we run the clock as usual, we get this 24-hour night phase, and then (assuming rapid end-hammering), another 24 hours to think about the last Day phase with one additional player eliminated. That's one additional player's worth of information and we'd be giving up 24 hours to process that...

So, actually, I think this is not a good idea.

That's a good point. We need the night time.

Mostly, we need the time after the upcoming NK. It's not like we haven't had a chance to speculate on the the game after et...

##CALL GM: Can we end-hammer this night phase?

[Jamiet99uk]

GM NOTE

The usual approach to hammering the night phase applies in this game:

1. Every single remaining player (not just a majority) must PM *both* GMs with the command "##END NIGHT" - note this must be via PM, not here in the thread.

2. The GM will not confirm how many End votes have been received, until such time as the total reaches 100%, if it ever reaches that point.

3. How quickly the night is ended is also partly dependent on the GMs being online to process it.

4. Any surplus time is added on to the following Day phase.

[Squigs44]

Again, sorry, I really just don't have time to put into this game right now. I should be able to make a couple posts before bed, but really I wish I wasn't so busy so that I could put more effort into solving this. End game solving really is the best part of the game.

I am going to start off with just looking at VCA and going over that for each of the four players: Foxy, Connor, Percy, and Flavuzovic.

Day 1:
Et and damo on bozo
Balki and MF on Flavius
Xorxes on Percy

Mafia was spread out, Flavius was in danger for a decent amount of the day, but was saved by a bozo wagon that saw town piling on at the end. Really not a lot of info to gain from this day, other than that I think Flav looked a little townie for that EoD.

Day 2:
damo, et, Xorxes, Balki on et
peter on EP

Of our 4 spotlights players, Percy and Fox are on EP, while connor and Flav are on et. Flav switched from Ep to et near the end of the day when Chippe was still moving around, so I have a hard time seeing Flav as mafia here. Connor voted for et earlier in the day, and left his vote there. This would be some pretty big bussing, but damo also voted et at the same point (before switching to EP), so its possible Connor is mafia here.
Percys vote on EP made it go from 9-5 to 10-5, when 3 mafia were already on EP. At this point, if Percy is mafia, spreading his vote over to et could be beneficial, so this is only a slight mafia lean for me.
Foxy's vote on the other hand, brought a 3-3 tie to 4-3 EP leading et, which began the snowball effect that lead to 8-4. Foxy's vote is the most suspect on day 2.

Day 3:
Xorxes 10 / teacon 4

The two players on teacon that have flipped area all mafia, and the third and fourth are Fox and Connor. Fox was originally voting for Xorxes before switching to teacon to "create discussion". But then he doesnt talk about teacon. He just asks people to consolidate to either teacon or Xorxes without any real explanation. Kinda weird play from Fox here on day 3.
Connors vote is definitely scummier, as he ties the wagons at 5-5 teacon Xorxes without really explaining his vote on teacon. He drops the vote and doesn't post for the rest of the day, staying at 10 posts total.
Percy and Flav are on Xorxes, which could be bussing, so those votes are NAI.

Day 4:
Mafia definitely wanted Fox alive. All of the flipped mafia were on teacon (peter, damo, et). Peter's vote was the first cast for the day, but ets and damos came when the vote was tied at 3 a piece and 4 a piece. Either mafia were trying really hard to setup Fox's eventual mislynch, or they were saving the precious roleblocker. The RBr really is valuable to mafia at this point because it gives them an extra chance to find the BA. Fox looks real scummy here, not because of anything Fox did, but because of what mafia did.

Day 5:
Pretty useless, but damo ending with his vote on Connor is interesting. Probably wifom, but interesting.

Day 6:
et voted for ND probably knowing he was the BA, so his vote there really doesn't help us. However, getting the BA lynched is a huge win for mafia, and they probably worked out ND was the BA after the RB. This makes the votes by Fox and Connor scummy. Connors vote was originally on Fox, and his progression over to ND is a little weird (I dont understand all of it), but I don't think mafia Connor makes that progression and those posts.
Fox, on the other hand, when he makes his vote, cites Durga's ND RB analysis when he votes. The tone of votes between Fox and Connor are so completely different, and I think Connor's is more genuine, while Fox's is much more logic based. Much easier for Fox to hide his emotions over Connor.

Overall, I think the voting gives Flavuzovic a pretty good townie status, Percy is likely town, Connor has some bad votes, but hit tone is pretty genuine, and Fox looks terrible with this VCA.

[Squigs44]

We know if Fox is scum he is not: assassin, roleblock, and probably framer/lawyer (but we can't be sure about these two)

At the point where we know at best he can't be 4/6 roles, and at worst 2/6 it makes no sense to lynch him. Sure, he might be scum. But his likelihood has shot down and therefore it makes him a worse lynch.

Why cant he be role blocker? Xorxes claim could be fake.

[Squigs44]

There are several things I don't understand about what happened this game, but the one that is bugging me the most right now is the damo / Connor RB claims. I really want to say that Connor is mafia because of it but idk its just so weird.

[Squigs44]

Reading up on Xorxes/Balki/damo/peter interactions with Fox and Connor is making me think Connor is mafia now. Fox's votes and tone have been so bad, but Connor being mafia is just so much more sneaky and in line with how mafia usually make it to the end game.

Mafia please just kill me so I do not need to make this decision. Thx

[Squigs44]

Also, just remember guys - if we make it a few posts into page 350 we can set a new record for most posts in a webdip mafia game. Lets break the record! (GM posts count too, so your frequent and sometimes redundant vote counts are appreciated)

[Squigs44]

This game is reminding me of M37 when it was Rdrivera vs Flash in the finals, and Rdrivera was the more methodical analytical guy and Flash was playing his first game and was pretty genuine, and it ended up being Rdrivera who was mafia.

So, vote Foxy?

I keep going back and forth cause I really dont want to be wrong but I think Foxy really is the last mafia.