M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

[FlaviusAetius]

@Percy Yes! Lets get him, he has to be more scum than me, right? I mean he's barely voted this entire time, inserting orders at the last moment all the time.
Teacon can't even provide us a town list trying to open more and more wagons.

Emc townreading teacon more and more??
Doesnt that tell you anything?

Lynch teacon.
Lynch emc.

I'll switch my vote to emc, if your willing to go there, they both need to die, it doesn't matter the order.

##vote emc

[FlaviusAetius]

@Moscow you need to be on this as well. Please tell me what more convincing is there to be had?

[FlaviusAetius]

If ANYTHING, take this into account;
You both know I had somewhat good instincts last game, maybe just maybe I'm also right here?
I'm certain its both of them. We have to be certain. It's lylo

[teacon7]

Hey sorry for my absence - things picked up quite a bit at work since it's the last week of school and not a holiday weekend. I think I'm more eager to get out of here than the students. Don't tell them I said that.

Moving on to some thoughts that stir my subconscious since this morning:

a) Last night I did a study by the numbers of Moscow's meta habits in the peterbot recorded games since m42. I won't reveal my GLORIOUS spreadsheet until it's done, but basically it's trying to put numbers behind what we say about lurking. When Moscow is town, he's in the 90th percentile of posters (i.e, how far down the list he is of the total number of players). When he's mafia, he's usually more like the 75th percentile - still not high, but much more active. I'll share the spreadsheet if I can figure out how to do so and still not like... give you all my personal information and stuff. thep oint is - m1007 moscow's participation is in the 90.77% percentile, and his town meta is 91.44%. That fits his town meta a lot better, for whatever meta's worth.

b) moscow's most recent long post here looks good because it brings up some more original thoughts, rather than my past experiences. I don't think they're great original thoughts (You're "fully convinced?" really?), but ... w/e I'll hopefully get a chance to respond tomorrow. I disagree completely with Percy's assessment from earlier (He answered: "why are percy and moscow different?" by saying more or less "I look towny to myself." More later...). This doesn't get him off the hook, but it's enough that I think we need some more information.

@Moscow - I like that you're bringing up the voting record. I also scumread flav. Even if flav "shifted onto vash last minute to protect" me... That's easily explainable if flav is scum and doesn't care which of townvash or townteacon gets lynched. Why would I not just ##vote flav with you? Tbh I'd rather lose the game to you than to him.

Teacon has somehow wriggled his way through three days, and is going for the fourth and a win.

Good gracious if this were true I DESERVE to win. That means that scum!teacon, who hasn't played in like two years, shows up and nails both PR out of the blue, gets durga ML'd, and goes head to head to get xorx ML'd, and wins it in lylo all by doing a 180 change from his scum meta. I wish I were that good at this game.

Again - look at the votes. It’s the one concrete measurement we do have, and they don’t lie.

I rather appreciate that you said this. It reminded me that we have WAY more information now than we did yesterday. Why? ND flipped town. We actually have a lot of information on voting patterns so far. To wit:


d1
damo666 (7) bozotheclown rdrivera2005 xorxes ND teacon7 e.m.c^42 MoscowFleet
ND (4) damo666 EspressoPatronum Durga VashtaNeurotic
Percy Williams (1) VaporFlav
Durga (1) Percy Williams

d2
Durga (6) teacon7 Percy Williams VashtaNeurotic MoscowFleet bozotheclown e.m.c^42
VashtaNeurotic (4) ND EspressoPatronum Durga FlaviusAetius
teacon7 (1) xorxes

d3
xorxes (5) teacon7 MoscowFleet Percy Williams e.m.c^42 bozotheclown
teacon7 (3) xorxes FlaviusAetius VashtaNeurotic
VashtaNeurotic (1) ND

d4
VashtaNeurotic (4) Percy Williams ND FlaviusAetius e.m.c^42
teacon7 (2) VashtaNeurotic MoscowFleet
MoscowFleet (1) teacon7

Let's think about these voting patterns for a bit before we do anything rash.

It occurs to me that Percy and VaporFlav were both on off wagons D1 - they didn't vote damo. I don't recall if they were online. Everyone on ND is accounted for.

Then look at d3 - Am I the only one who thinks its strange that Percy voted without a whole lot of explanation?

Or, looking at all the days, that percy and emc are both forecasting a lot of indecision, yet seem to be voting with whomever the strongest voices are. (d1: xorx. d2: ND/me?!? d3: me/bozo i guess d4: ND)
D5 that means emc/percy are set to sheep whomever the strongest towniest seeming voices are. That's how pocketing/buddying works. Townread someone. follow them. Now oyu're in their shadow and they can't see you. That description fits: percy and emc


That said, idk anything anymore. @percy did you guys roll the former-gm scumteam?

Can you stop acting like you don't understand?
If we talk in real time, and we start talking about things and trying to discover who is scum, DURING THE NIGHT. What happens? The two scum get to snipe whoever they want, based on what's going on, they get to make carefully planned plans for the next day.
It makes perfect sense I really don't see how you think it's silly...
24 hours for discussion when everyone including you wanted to hammer it?
Compared to 48 hours without scum coordination.

Flav. Flav. What if town could say things at night to mislead scum?

More later, but I've got a lot to do tonight still so I'm looking forward to reading more in the morning.

[teacon7]

I'm townreading Teacon more and more actually - for the same reason you're scumreading him lol

he's willing to reconsider and poke at everyone - which is really needed at this point, since we're pretty dead if just one town person mis-tunnels, and the remaining two scum join in on it.

uhh... now this just got awkward, given my last post.

Thanks Emc! You're spot on.

[teacon7]

Actually, @emc this would be a great time for you to vote. You're obviously not going to vote for yourself, so... who's it going to be?

[Percy Williams]

If ANYTHING, take this into account;
You both know I had somewhat good instincts last game, maybe just maybe I'm also right here?
I'm certain its both of them. We have to be certain. It's lylo

Last game you were scum.
That's not instinct. That's knowledge.

[Percy Williams]

.

It occurs to me that Percy and VaporFlav were both on off wagons D1 - they didn't vote damo. I don't recall if they were online. Everyone on ND is accounted for.

I wasn't online Eod. My last post that phase was the last time I saw the chat.

Then look at d3 - Am I the only one who thinks its strange that Percy voted without a whole lot of explanation?

I panicked, and thought I almost missed End of phase in my voting as I frantically biked to my local library. I posted explanation just a bit after when I realized how stark the vote was.

Or, looking at all the days, that percy and emc are both forecasting a lot of indecision, yet seem to be voting with whomever the strongest voices are. (d1: xorx. d2: ND/me?!? d3: me/bozo i guess d4: ND)
D5 that means emc/percy are set to sheep whomever the strongest towniest seeming voices are. That's how pocketing/buddying works. Townread someone. follow them. Now oyu're in their shadow and they can't see you. That description fits: percy and emc

Or we're just bad town players.

That said, idk anything anymore. @percy did you guys roll the former-gm scumteam?

Because me saying we didn't will sway you?

[teacon7]

Hey wait @Moscow - why did you say that me in lylo would be a disaster?

[FlaviusAetius]

Teacon can still not provide us who he thinks is town.
Interesting.

[teacon7]

@Flav Why would that make a difference?

[teacon7]

okay well idk who's online, but whenever someone gets here: what do you think moscow meant by saying that I'd be a disaster in lylo?

[e.m.c^42]

Actually, @emc this would be a great time for you to vote. You're obviously not going to vote for yourself, so... who's it going to be?

You're right

Well, I doubt there's anyone else I want to vote, so ##vote flavius

[e.m.c^42]

The problem with that though, is that I'm reasonably sure Flav is trying to fake his way to victory again, and it seems to be belief held by almost everyone at this point...so is it just the remaining scum giving up and deciding to bus their almost certainly dead teammate, or Flav being...not scum.

it seems rather unlikely though, especially since he's been somewhat consistently scumread by iirc a lot of players...for most of the game, and he's still alive lol

[e.m.c^42]

okay well idk who's online, but whenever someone gets here: what do you think moscow meant by saying that I'd be a disaster in lylo?

I think he means that 1) He scumreads you, and he doesn't think it'll be likely enough will vote you from the looks of how the thread is going - i.e. you'll win if you're scum or 2) The doubt from xorxes makes too much wifom to accurately read or something?

[Percy Williams]

okay well idk who's online, but whenever someone gets here: what do you think moscow meant by saying that I'd be a disaster in lylo?

I think he means that 1) He scumreads you, and he doesn't think it'll be likely enough will vote you from the looks of how the thread is going - i.e. you'll win if you're scum or 2) The doubt from xorxes makes too much wifom to accurately read or something?

I think your on the right track, but iirc the context suggests 2 is more likely I read it more as 2) He townreads you, but the XvT will mean no one will actually hunt for scum, they'll just lynch you.

[FlaviusAetius]

Let's lynch him then!

[e.m.c^42]

Let's lynch him then!

His thing is more wifom than your case though - and I don't want to risk wifom at this stage :P

[e.m.c^42]

Moscow better post in the next 5 hours or so since we'll probably lose if he gets modkilled lmao.

[Foxcastle]

Vote Count 5.2

FlaviusAetius (4) — Percy Williams, MoscowFleet, teacon7, e.m.c^42
e.m.c^42 (1) — FlaviusAetius

FlaviusAetius is set to be lynched!

MoscowFleet must make one more post to meet the minimum posting requirement.

There are just over 5 hours and 15 minutes remaining in Day 5!