M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

[bozotheclown]

If I'm right about teacon, I wouldn't be surprized if the other one is Vapor or bozo.

@xorx - if you're wrong about teacon, would you say that it clears vapor and bozo?

I recall vapor following your lead on cases n1... which is weird, because he and I were on a lot the same page earlier.

If I'm wrong about teacon, almost anything could be true because I'm pretty sure I'm right about teacon. It's not like a slight suspicion or something like that, it's pretty near certainty by now.

I'm only slightly less certain about Vapor, but his last posts seem to confirm all my theories.

What do you make of him being roleblocked? It appears that the scumteam agreed with you that he was claiming to be the cop, right?

Why are you so sure Durga and Vashta are town? Is your certainty on Vapor based solely on teacon being scum?

[bozotheclown]

For now Im going to park my vote on teacon, but I am certainly open to changing it, probably will after I catch up
##vote teacon

Why teacon over Durga?

[bozotheclown]

bozo, I know I can never regain your trust after that game when I buddied you so hard it was disgusting, but try to be more objective here. Damo was not getting lynched without my intervention D1.

You jumped on me for saying ND could be bussing even though apparently he (never?) busses, and now you say I could have been bussing the godfather even though I don't bus either?

Anyway, you will see the light in time, so I'm not too worried.

It is not helping alleviate my suspicion of you that instead of addressing my concerns from this game, you are just saying you would not bus the GF and implying I have a bias against you from M35. We have been in ten games together since:
M36: We were both town, I did not scum read you.
M39: We were both town, I did not scum read you.
M40: I was scum.
M1005: I was town, you were scum, I was sure you were scum by the time you NKed me.
M1006: We were both town, and we suspected each other by the end of the game, but I only voted for you for 3 minutes on the last day.
M41: We were both town, I did not scum read you.
M42: I was town, you were scum, I scum read you and voted for you by D2.
M43: We were both town, I did not scum read you.
M44: I was town, you were scum, I suspected you by D2 but I did not vote for you when you were lynched.
M45: We were both scum.

So in the five games since M35 where we were both town, the only time I suspected you were scum was on D5 of M1006, and I only voted for you for 3 minutes over those 5 games. Where is the evidence that I have a bias against you, or that I have not been objective toward you in the past, so that it is possible for me to be "more objective here"?

By the way, in the four games where I was town and suspected you were scum, you turned out to be scum in three of the four games.

OK, what exactly are your concerns that I have not addressed?

As I told you before, I was not paying much attention to damo until I saw that read that he copied from me. Once I saw it, I had very little doubt that he was scum and I set out to lynch him. Of course I knew you and rivera suspected damo because you were voting for him. "The growing suspicion of damo could have led xorxes to start bussing him." You reall believe that's what I would do as scum? I see damo has two votes, I find something that nobody else was likely to notice but me, but once I pointed it out I thought would leave no doubt in anyone's mind that damo was scum (there I was completely wrong because absolutely no one else thought it was meaningful, I must be weird that way), so I out the evidence that nobody else would likely find, I lynch the godfather, and then use that gained towncred to push hard for a lynch of town!teacon D2 (presumably to save Durga, who when she saw me bussing damo had no better idea than try to save him and expose herself, otherwise if she is town why on earth would I bother with teacon when everybody else seems all to happy to lynch Durga?), and if I'm wrong about teacon it will guareantee my lynch on D3 (or maybe you think I may be bussing teacon as well, so I will gain even more towncred?). Is that what you think is going on? Two dead scum dead by D3 in exchange for mislynching teacon? Really? Come on, really? Is that the story you are seeing?

Why were you not paying much attention to damo? Why were you not paying attention to anyone who was scum reading damo? Why would a scum damo deliberately copy a read from a previous game? Why is it impossible that a town damo deliberately copied a read from a previous game? Why did you seem oblivious to why anyone else besides you was voting for damo?

As for everything else, I do not know the alignment of Durga or teacon, what I find questionable has nothing to do with what their alignment turns out to be.

[bozotheclown]

OK, I'm dead tonight.

Doc probably don't save me, you could be needed to save the cop later, and I will die N2 if you do anyway. (Or maybe do save me, just to keep the scum guessing )

Cop don't scan someone who will die early.

My top candidate for scum at the moment is teacon, but that's just a hunch.

Besides you basically telling the cop not to scan you, you state that your scum read of teacon is "just a hunch". Now you have an elaborate case on teacon and you are nearly certain he is scum. What has elevated your certainty about teacon?

[bozotheclown]

Wow, nice! Very surprised at the turn of events - Damo wasn't on my radar at all.

Good call @Xorxes and the others who made it happen last minute. I'll have to go comb through the past few pages to see how you figured it out. Was it just the one post re: bozo's play, or was there more?

Nobody but me voted him for that, so there must have been something else.

Did you really have no idea why anyone else was scum reading damo and only know that there must have been some other reason because no one else seemed to think what you pointed out confirmed damo as scum?

[bozotheclown]

# of damo's posts in response to people:

Vapor: 4
teacon: 4
bozo: 2
xorxes: 2
emc: 1
everyone else: 0

If I'm right about teacon, I wouldn't be surprized if the other one is Vapor or bozo.

Why would you think this is a good indication that I could be scum if damo responded to two of your posts also? Did you read the responses? Why would it not surprise you that I was bussing the GF?

[bozotheclown]

Ah, it was this. It wasn't so terrible, but still.

You and bozo were voting for damo before I presented my case, so it was not because what I pointed out bothered you.

And in fact, after I presented it, neither one of you seemed to care much.

That is because a read that was similar to something you said in another game was far from the most suspicious thing from damo D1. You ignored my comments about damo's contradictory yet confident scum read of ND and the weak reasons he gave for scum reading you and rdrivera, but jumped on him for the wording of this one read. As I pointed out, that was not even the most suspicious thing from that damo post, all of his reads were vague and he backed off on his scum reads of you and rdrivera.

Yeah, I wasn't paying much attention to damo at all until I saw that read. I had him in my mind as weak townlean because he had said something somewhat sensible about my early read of emc.

Can you point to the sensible thing damo said about your read of emc?

[bozotheclown]

[qute=xorxes post_id=77650 time=1558142986 user_id=229]


If I'm right about teacon, I wouldn't be surprized if the other one is Vapor or bozo.

This sounds like what I was doing last game to try to make some town members look suspicious, but with a much smaller sample size. I find it hard to believe that you would really think has any use in identifying scum.

I was hoping someone other than you would notice...

But, when you iso damo, it's really striking how few people he interacted with. Damo plays a very shy scum, so I really would not be surprized if he limited his interactions to his teammates.
[/quote]

On what games are you basing this assessment of damo's scum play?

[MoscowFleet]

Sorry for being so quiet, on a short trip for the long weekend.

A lot to unpack here in Teacon v Xorxes. Personally, I thought day 1 teacon was town. His thoughts seemed logical enough, but I'm definitely going to have to revisit him now... which is a monumental task that I will not be able to complete before EOD. Heck, his one eon post is probably longer than everything I've said all game.

Vapour is looking worse and worse. His only real push was omgus onto me, for some pretty shitty reasons. In fact, one of the reasons I'm leaning towards xorxes being town is his strong scumreading of that slot. However, with the substitution and seemingly little interest in lynching flav today, I think Vapour will have to wait.

Right now Durga is on Vash, and Vash on Durga. That indicates pretty strongly they're not scum together. Espresso scumreading both teacon and durga is interesting, and I'm very curious to see where they will end up voting today as it looks like it's going to be those two.

I'm going to go ahead and give teacon the benefit of the doubt for now and ##vote Durga. Perhaps my vote would be different if I had the time to reread but this will have to do for now. I think Durga has a pretty good chance to flip scum, given her voting day 1. The outrage over "lockhimup" kinda rubbed me the wrong way as well, outrage for the sake of outrage. Shades of Jamie, if you will.

That's probably all from me for today and tomorrow. Happy Victoria Day!

[bozotheclown]

My previous post had the quotes corrupted somehow, it should be:

If I'm right about teacon, I wouldn't be surprized if the other one is Vapor or bozo.

This sounds like what I was doing last game to try to make some town members look suspicious, but with a much smaller sample size. I find it hard to believe that you would really think has any use in identifying scum.

I was hoping someone other than you would notice...

But, when you iso damo, it's really striking how few people he interacted with. Damo plays a very shy scum, so I really would not be surprized if he limited his interactions to his teammates.

On what games are you basing this assessment of damo's scum play?

[bozotheclown]

My vote on Percy is obvious no longer for pressure, I'm not pleased with what he offered so far.

I'm all for lynching Percy today. But I'll move to damo if it's between him and ND. What are you going to do?

It does not seem likely teacon as scum would lock himself into voting for damo over ND when they were the top wagons.

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE VashtaNeurotic

[xorxes]

I suppose there is a minimal chance of scum winning still, but I don't really see it.

How do you see it happening?

I think we lynch durga today. she flips scum, to no one's great surprise.

You lament to the empty mafQT, try to NK me anyway because CBA says no one else is going to challenge you this much. doc protects me N2.

OK, I'll work with that. So you think a Durga-xorxes team is consistent with the evidence.

Something inevitably comes up for me in RL, I'm not around to defend myself, and get ML'd D3.

You get mislynched after having been saved by the doc? Is this a joke or are you not even trying anymore?

N3 you nk ND or maybe bozo, whomever you haven't already pocketed.

After that, it's gonna be tough for you. Not gonna lie. I think you told us how you felt already:

@xorxes -
Do you think shy scum interacting only with his teammates is good scum play?

It's horrible scum play, as shown in this game.

Ah, I see! I lynched damo because I was annoyed at him for playing badly! Makes perfect sense.

Yes, you are scum. Only thing left to confirm now is whether Vapor/Flavius is indeed yoiur partner.

[xorxes]

I see what you're saying, but that's silly.
1) I didn't vote ND because I didn't really scumread ND.
2) damo was already in my lynch pool.
3) a tie was avoided.

Do a cost-benefit analysis on this. Which is more worth it for scum!me to do at EOD: risk looking worse in order to save the godfather, or bus the most important member of my team to death?

Maybe you would play it differently as scum. If you were scum, Xorxes, under what conditions would you bus the godfather?

I practically never bus, and I usually don't even scumread my teammates, so I doubt I'd find myself in that position.

Your choices as scum!you here were:

(1) vote for ND against what you had been saying all day. Not really an option because even if it saved the day it compromised both you and damo.
(2) vote for damo and at least try to get some towncred from that, hoping also something may still happen that would allow you to change your vote (hence the big BUT in your vote)
(3) do nothing in spite of me just pointing out that your logical course of action as town was to break the tie to lynch your scumread. This would place a lot of doubts on you and do nothing for damo who might still be lynched anyway when emc voted.

Clearly (3) seems like the best course of action, at least in the heat of the moment.

how was scum!teacon supposed to know that emc would vote for damo? the lynch was tied at 15 minutes to EoD. You know as well as I that this is FAR from settled.

Xorx, your entire case here is entirely NAI.

As town, these were my options:
1) vote ND, who was not in my lynch pool. He had good points and he had bad points, but I didn't want him to swing.
2) vote damo, who was in my lynch pool, for reasons I explained earlier. reasons, btw, that confirmed town like rdriv liked a lot.
3) do nothing, and wait for someone else to do something.

Which is the towniest course of action there, for town!teacon?

I see what you're doing, but that's not the case against you!

Of course your vote for damo is NAI, because it was forced, it gives us zero info.

Of course the towny course of action was to vote for damo. That's why as scum you had to vote for him because otherwise you would look scummy. The only scummy part of the vote is that it took you so long to do it, and that you were so reluctant, not the vote itself.

The point here is obviously not "teacon is scum because he voted for damo", the point here is "teacon's vote for damo does not really give him towncred, because as scum his other choices were even worse for him".

The case against you is obviously not based on this vote, and it is interesting that you try to make it look like it is.

[xorxes]

Anyone who didnt vote for damo early, is clearly quite suspicious in my eyes.
That means ND, emc and teacon.
I think ND is cleared
emc and teacon, are on my list.
I dont know why you guys are choosing durga(yes I still have to go back, will do it tomorrow, just needed to get this out here)

Bear in mind when doing your analysis that emc had the choice of voting for ND, which teacon did not have without contradicting what he had said earlier that day.

[xorxes]

I have shown why your vote does not really exonerate you because it was pretty much forced.
The fact you won't even admit that your vote was pretty much forced is also telling.

You're Affirming the Consequent here. It's a logical fallacy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affirming_the_consequent

Affirming the consequent, sometimes called converse error, fallacy of the converse, or confusion of necessity and sufficiency, is a formal fallacy of taking a true conditional statement (e.g., "If the lamp were broken, then the room would be dark,") and invalidly inferring its converse ("The room is dark, so the lamp is broken,") even though the converse may not be true. This arises when a consequent ("the room would be dark") has one or more other antecedents (for example, "the lamp is not plugged in" or "the lamp is in working order, but is switched off").

Converse errors are common in everyday thinking and communication and can result from, among other causes, communication issues, misconceptions about logic, and failure to consider other causes.

What? You think the vote does exonerate him? What are you talking about?

[xorxes]

I'm not dead because:

(1) there was a chance I might be doc-saved
(2) I had shown extreme conviction that you are scum, and that's a good reason to let me live both if you are town (because then scum can celebrate me trying to lynch you) or if I am right (because otherwise you risk people listening to me and lynching you once it's established my intentions were pure).

So I'm not sure why you think it's so unlikely I'm not dead. I'm an early NK in most of my town games, but rarely N1 because scum are afraid of saves (this was less important this time because of the one-shot only, but still a factor).

That's a fair point.
It could also be (3) scum!xorx is picking the NK's.

Indeed, and rivera was a good choice if the intention was to frame me because the obvious nightkills for me would have been rivera or bozo.

But I didn't remember that scum might fear a docsave.

Probably not as much this game as usual, because it's one-use only and there's a good argument to be made that it should be saved for later. Always dependant on who the doc is and how safe they are of course.

Maybe you and HR should start an ascended-meta invitational league, where you could play (for a while) without the fearkilling. I feel for you.

Yeah, it's practically impossible for me to reach the endgame as either alignment but especially as scum, although I did manage it once.

[xorxes]

teacon, from what I've read, it seems like you are another good person at Mafia.
I looked at your post for pinning down Durga as a scum.
In it you said; @vapor what the hell. I thought you were the cop.

If xorxes was a mafia, do you not think he would have thought the same?
The mafia team got the cop either out of dumb-luck or have found something we haven't, I'm siding on the former.

Also if xorxes wasn't on the right track, what reason do the mafia have to kill him? Let him be a suspect, in which it seems you've made him out to be.
Perhaps because this was your plan?

Also rivera is one of the better players here, and he wasn't being scumread by anyone, so a good choice overall. Trying to figure out the reasons mafia had for their kills is usually pure wifom, and it's done more by mafia themselves than by town.

[xorxes]

I agree @flavius, I think mafia got the cop by dumb luck.

One of the main reasons Durga looks scummy is how desperate she was towards the end of day 1 to get another lynch wagon going besides damo.

Was she that desperate though? I will reread but my recollection is that EOD was pretty dead, and trying to have some movement is not in itself scum indicative.

[xorxes]

So your case is, if i'm hearing you right:
I'm scum with godfather damo
I *deliberately* say out loud that scum are trying to draw a scan onto the godfather

I read it more as a suggestion to your teammates than as a description of what was going on.

That's a pretty convenient read for you.
I was trying to soft suggestions to the guy I thought was cop. I didn't know if ND was playing lightning rod as a town reaction test, or as scum godfather.

Why did you need to "soft" it? Why not say it loud and clear?

I scumread damo and not ND in an attempt to draw a scan onto damo
and then i kill damo because I'm have no other options

Yes, but of course at the time you scumread damo (very weakly) and you said you would not lynch ND (after trying to get people to vote for him and seeing a wagon forming fast, maybe you got scared that you would be held responsible and so came up with the reaction test story) there was no way for you to know that those were going to be basically the only options at EOD.

I was the the second person on ND. that's not a fast forming wagon. I left ND when a) emc gave me an indication he wasn't just voting for the easy option, and b) I followed my copread. ND had 3 total votes. that's not a fast forming wagon. look at the vote tracker.
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/game_st ... =day&num=1

btw, you're Affirming the Consequent again.

What am I affirming?

You're saying:

he had to move to damo,
therefore he must have accidentally set up the conditions wherein he had to move to damo.

wait maybe it's post hoc ergo propter hoc.
someone read the articles and lmk which one it is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Nonsense, I'm not saying anything like that.

I'm saying: The conditions were such that he pretty much was forced to move to damo, therefore his moving to damo doesn't tell us anything about his alignment and can't be used in his defense.

Are you so tunnelled that you can't see another cause for me moving to damo? or are you unwilling to consider alternatives: town teacon moves from one person in his lynch pool to another?

If you were town, moving to damo (even earlier than you did) was the natural thing to do. I have no idea where you're getting the impression that I deny that. Are you saying that I scumread you because you voted for damo? Where do you get that from?

The argument is flawed in several ways.

FIRST:
If I was scum and trying to draw a copscan onto the godfather, how does that somehow single out damo against any of the other players I had a light scumread on?

You couldn't guarantee it, of course, just facilitate it.

So your argument here is at least 66% more improbable.

Which is more probable:
scum!teacon openly coaches buddies D1,
or
town!teacon, who is actively engaging in a variety of conversations, points out a game-mechanics angle for the cop to consider.
?
HM....

I don't know why you needed to make it so subtle if it was meant for the cop.

Not only you, I also told Vapor and everyone who was there. You think by telling you I was setting you a trap? Explain!

I'd have to go back and look to see if you called out to anyone else by name.

Make sure you do.

And even if I hadn't, what would be scummy about singling you out? Was I trying to frame you for lynching a scum? It makes no sense at all.

Recall that during EoD I did post copy/pastes of the "who is online" list at the bottom. At several points there were lots of guests, emc, etc. notably, you were still posting and your name didn't appear down there. How reliable is that listing at the bottom of "who is online" ...?

Not very, I understand. I think there's a setting where you don't show up. Or if you are inactive for x amount of time, or something like that.

At the time, I was reading your calls for people to consolidate to other wagons as a pretty towny move.

And what makes it less towny now?

What are you talking about? When did I say only you could move? I said for you, your move was pretty much forced. It was also forced for Vapor, but he has the excuse of "I'm so in another planet that I can't be held responsible for my actions". You, on the other hand, were very present in the game. You could not take that out.

My move wasn't forced. Not as scum, not as town.

I was not the only one "very present" at EoD. Other people were a) online, and b) posting. It was far from inevitable that damo would swing. durga was talking about new wagons, and her moving would break the tie. emc hadn't voted yet, which could have broken the tie. heck I could have sat on percy till the flip and someone else would have done something.

Why was I, and not another, forced to do anything at all?

You had stated a scumread of damo. I think Vapor was the only other one who had done so.

You had stated you would not vote for ND, I don't think anyone else had done that.

You were actively participating and what I told you "either push hard for percy or vote for the scummier of damo and ND" made perfect sense, and you could not deny it made perfect sense.

So yes, you had to do something.

Vapor should have done something too, but I don't even know if he was there, and his ramblings can hardly be interpreted as logical discourse, so it's harder to pin anything on him.

Perhaps because every ounce of your shade against me is a convoluted, tinfoil hat framework contingent on scumreading that one action?

Nonsense. That action is NOT the reason I scumread you. And you trying to make it seem as if that is the basis of my scumread is also telling.

You would have looked very bad if you didn't move there, do you disagree?

I don't think I'd have looked any worse than, say, durga, who was talking about starting other wagons... but didn't. Or worse than emc, who wasn't voting.

The question is not who would have looked worse, but whether or not you would have looked bad.

As town, you would vote there for damo without a second thought.

As scum, you have to weigh in a lot of factors, and decide, in very little time, what is the less bad option, because all of your options were bad.

So the option you took is not something that paints you as towny, it's something that is perfectly compatible with either alignment.

In hindsight, you're probably telling yourself you should have done that. At the moment, you probably felt more trapped.

That doesn't really respond to my point, it's just another card to the house of cards you've built on this.

But I bet the scum who DID bus his buddy is wishing he had done something else...

Your defense by attacking me is very ineffective, because if I really did bus damo I did it so thoroughly that it won't be detected until my survival starts looking suspicious. D2 is too early to attack me with that. Your better take is that I'm misguided townie in a tunnel.

You're not just refuting a point about towncred. fwiw, I don't care about towncred. You're using my vote at EoD as the basis for scumreading the majority of my actions so far. Just about every other part of your case depends on this one action being scummy.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Not at all. The basis of my read lies somewhere else. And you have done nothing but confirm it since. Like trying to accuse me of logical fallacies, really?