M1007 — "Mafia, She Wrote" Game Thread

[Vaporwave]

It takes me 8+ minute to post a message, I can't do this anymore

teacon, update yourself, please!

I think you're fully town and exceptional.


And no, as far as I can remember, there was no hooker visiting me

I thought a lovely hooker visited one of you? or maybe rivera got ze hooker treatment and got killed?

[ND]

Fair, and you have a case. I disagree with parts of it, but it’s a case. Still, there is a big difference in Damo and Teacon. Teacon seems, to me, whether you agree or not to be trying to deduce and solve the game. Damo wasn’t and was scum indicative from the start.

He was second top poster D1, very active and involved. We end the day successfully lynching the godfather. What does town do in such a scenario? Town is excited. Town looks at that scum's interactions, pulls the threads, finds the connections, tries to identify the remaining scum.

What does teacon do? Retire from the thread to write a long defense from a case he purportedly believes is not even an actual case but just a ploy from town xorxes to save himself from the kill. Sure.

I do agree that it's a bit weird how he vanished. I didn't expect that.

[Percy Williams]

The only things on me right now are people annoyed I don't devote my life to Webdip Mafia. I have two times in a 24 hour period set apart to check the mafia thread, and the current end phase time will never be in those set apart times.

plz don't get offended. I've been in a similar situation all weekend.

I'm not offended, just letting people know there's no meta to draw on from that, and that I will never make end of phase.

[ND]

The only things on me right now are people annoyed I don't devote my life to Webdip Mafia. I have two times in a 24 hour period set apart to check the mafia thread, and the current end phase time will never be in those set apart times.

plz don't get offended. I've been in a similar situation all weekend.

I'm not offended, just letting people know there's no meta to draw on from that, and that I will never make end of phase.

Are you in Australia, sorry I forgot if you were?

[Vaporwave]

my towcore is bozo, xorxes, ND, teacon and possibly Espresso

rest is up for grabs

[Percy Williams]

plz don't get offended. I've been in a similar situation all weekend.

I'm not offended, just letting people know there's no meta to draw on from that, and that I will never make end of phase.

Are you in Australia, sorry I forgot if you were?

No, but I do show up at different times then almost all y'all. I think I align most with reasonable times for GMT, judging by how often I see Jamiet. You ND are the only other person that has been online during my Norma times this game.

[xorxes]

there are 2 scum left, I find teacon as a great candidate because of his attitude of establishing a townie presence, he was mega involved, but last few posts made him look suspect, I think he wasn't careful enough despite his efforts

As I re-read, I'm looking forward to hearing you flesh out what you mean by this. Isolated from anything else, it looks like you're newbie scum sheeping scum!xorxes and shading me. jsyk.

Vapor, I'm disappointed because I really thought you were the cop. You softed and everything, so I figured you were going to claim N1 so the doc would save you, you'd get a scan off. I'm going to have to re-read you now that you're clearly not who we thought you were.

Did anyone else think Vapor was the cop, or is this the royal "we"?

[ND]

there are 2 scum left, I find teacon as a great candidate because of his attitude of establishing a townie presence, he was mega involved, but last few posts made him look suspect, I think he wasn't careful enough despite his efforts

As I re-read, I'm looking forward to hearing you flesh out what you mean by this. Isolated from anything else, it looks like you're newbie scum sheeping scum!xorxes and shading me. jsyk.

Vapor, I'm disappointed because I really thought you were the cop. You softed and everything, so I figured you were going to claim N1 so the doc would save you, you'd get a scan off. I'm going to have to re-read you now that you're clearly not who we thought you were.

Did anyone else think Vapor was the cop, or is this the royal "we"?

hmmmmm I don't like that

[Percy Williams]

When have I ever been a high poster?

tbh, I wouldn't know. I'm meeting you for the first time.

What's your town meta like?
What's your scum meta like?

There's no scum meta to draw on, and this game won't fix that, but I can say that I like to tell a good number of jokes and get a little sad when everything gets serious and the spammers are lynched or nk'd. I check in at least twice a day, but often the games eod time means I will miss it. Even being town, I am perpetually an almost null read for everyone, with leans one way or the other. This is probably the game I have come the closest to being lynched in.

[Vaporwave]

teacon, don't disappoint me, I'm warning you

this transcends beyond the walls of this game, I'm fully trusting that you wouldn't be so unscrupulous to pocket me to this extent only to shows a wolverine form in the end.

Once again, teacon, you were the player that put most effort and sweat D1, I sheeped xorxes cause I wasn't ready to use my own thinking, but your N1 huge text and then thinking I was a cop makes me fully believe you.

Don't do this to me

[Percy Williams]

If anyone else wants to comment on my previous play style, feel free.

[xorxes]

If I'm right about teacon, I wouldn't be surprized if the other one is Vapor or bozo.

@xorx - if you're wrong about teacon, would you say that it clears vapor and bozo?

I recall vapor following your lead on cases n1... which is weird, because he and I were on a lot the same page earlier.

If I'm wrong about teacon, almost anything could be true because I'm pretty sure I'm right about teacon. It's not like a slight suspicion or something like that, it's pretty near certainty by now.

I'm only slightly less certain about Vapor, but his last posts seem to confirm all my theories.

What do you make of him being roleblocked? It appears that the scumteam agreed with you that he was claiming to be the cop, right?

[Vaporwave]

xorxes, are you okay?

My post states that I wasn't visited by any hooker, why are you twisting this around?

was bozo right about you? I can't recognise what you're doing anymore

[xorxes]

But, when you iso damo, it's really striking how few people he interacted with. Damo plays a very shy scum, so I really would not be surprized if he limited his interactions to his teammates.

@xorxes -


Do you think shy scum interacting only with his teammates is good scum play?

It's horrible scum play, as shown in this game.

Do you think that'd be a liability for the scumteam?

Yep. Sorry you had to deal with it, but shit sometimes happens

[xorxes]

tbh that last quote from xorxes is a great example of picking a case first, and then going digging for reasons to confirm. It's either tunnel-ey confirmation-bias town play, or scum looking to get someone lynched and digging for quotes.

I'm pretty sure xorx, who is very dangerous at this game, is better than putting himself into a tunnel of confirmation bias.

That leaves very few other options to interpret his series of "hunches" today.

We'll see, won't we?

Let's say Durga is lynched today and flips town.

You won't NK me because that would make people want to lynch you next, so you nk, say bozo, probably your best candidate.

Then D3 has to be xorxes vs teacon, nothing else will make sense.

Let's say you manage to lynch me.

The you NK, say Moscow.

So D4 it's:

e.m.c^42
EspressoPatronum
ND
Percy Williams
teacon7
Vaporwave
VashtaNeurotic

If at this point ND and Vash don't lead a lynch on you they are absolute morons, and I don't believe that's the case. So you are lynched and Vapor NKs say Espresso.

That leaves for D5:

e.m.c^42
ND
Percy Williams
Vaporwave
VashtaNeurotic

They can still mislynch someone. Let's say Percy somehow gets himself mislynched. Vapor kills say Vash.

Then D6:

e.m.c^42
ND
Vaporwave

At this point ND might remember I told them to lynch Vapor and we win. Or maybe Vapor somehow gets emc to vote for ND?

I suppose there is a minimal chance of scum winning still, but I don't really see it.

How do you see it happening?

[xorxes]

So why would xorxes suddenly start bussing damo, the GF, and help get him lynched? Maybe he felt damo was being suspicious enough that damo would get lynched soon anyway. Maybe Percy Williams is scum also, and with both of his teammates already getting pressure, he thought he had to make a bold move for scum to have a chance. Maybe he didn't, but we should not assume xorxes is town for "catching" damo.

This is spot on. How was xorxes so certain damo was scum?


I have a theory on this, but I've yet to see xorxes answer this question:

Why would scum bus their godfather d1?

Hopefully you have read my answer by now, since I posted it twice.

[xorxes]

I think this makes Moscow-teacon an unlikely pair.

teacon explains here that his push on ND (who was at the time a leading lynch candidate) was not really based on him scumreading ND, but it was more to see how others reacted. This post (and others) will make it very difficult for teacon to vote for ND when it was 4-4 with damo and he had to break the tie.

I see what you're saying, but that's silly.
1) I didn't vote ND because I didn't really scumread ND.
2) damo was already in my lynch pool.
3) a tie was avoided.

Do a cost-benefit analysis on this. Which is more worth it for scum!me to do at EOD: risk looking worse in order to save the godfather, or bus the most important member of my team to death?

Maybe you would play it differently as scum. If you were scum, Xorxes, under what conditions would you bus the godfather?

I practically never bus, and I usually don't even scumread my teammates, so I doubt I'd find myself in that position.

Your choices as scum!you here were:

(1) vote for ND against what you had been saying all day. Not really an option because even if it saved the day it compromised both you and damo.
(2) vote for damo and at least try to get some towncred from that, hoping also something may still happen that would allow you to change your vote (hence the big BUT in your vote)
(3) do nothing in spite of me just pointing out that your logical course of action as town was to break the tie to lynch your scumread. This would place a lot of doubts on you and do nothing for damo who might still be lynched anyway when emc voted.

Clearly (3) seems like the best course of action, at least in the heat of the moment.

[xorxes]

So why would xorxes suddenly start bussing damo, the GF, and help get him lynched? Maybe he felt damo was being suspicious enough that damo would get lynched soon anyway. Maybe Percy Williams is scum also, and with both of his teammates already getting pressure, he thought he had to make a bold move for scum to have a chance. Maybe he didn't, but we should not assume xorxes is town for "catching" damo.

All good points. It would be the first time I bus my teammates so brazenly, but I will have to try it some time as scum.

Only problem is, what happens after I get lots of towncred and survive N1 and N2? I can only try that strategy in a game with complicated mechanics that could explain my survival because scum are busy with other things, fearful of saves, and so on, but in this vanilla setup early credibility for me at the expense of a teammate is of no use, because it vanishes as soon as I survive the nightkills.

Nah. You'd just spam cases looking for reasons and paint me as scum by attrition. Wear everyone down by saying that same untrue thing until it "becomes" true. Then, when I flip town, you do the same thing to ND. It wouldn't last forever, but if you had a good team mate you could probably set up conditions for enough ML's to win after you're dead. Besides, if bozo is right here, it's not like scum!xorxes has many other options.

Really? Doesn't sound like any version of scum!me that I can remember.

So, perhaps you can explain why scum!xorxes would lead the lynch on damo when it was not going to happen D1? Scum xorxes knows that even if he plays a very convincing townie, he ends up being lynched D3 or D4 (last game it was D4, but that's only because brainbomb helped me a lot, it's usually D3). So scum!xorxes burns the godfather (even if he was awful, he had a good shot at being scanned and "semi-cleared" and last a long time) knowing that I will be lynched D3 or D4 tops? No, it doesn't add up.

[ND]

-snip-

If at this point ND and Vash don't lead a lynch on you they are absolute morons, and I don't believe that's the case. So you are lynched and Vapor NKs say Espresso.

That leaves for D5:

e.m.c^42
ND
Percy Williams
Vaporwave
VashtaNeurotic

They can still mislynch someone. Let's say Percy somehow gets himself mislynched. Vapor kills say Vash.

Then D6:

e.m.c^42
ND
Vaporwave

At this point ND might remember I told them to lynch Vapor and we win. Or maybe Vapor somehow gets emc to vote for ND?

I suppose there is a minimal chance of scum winning still, but I don't really see it.

How do you see it happening?

U make me sound like an absolute moron bro wtf

[ND]

This was not supposed to be in the quote text:

U make me sound like an absolute moron bro wtf

Very end of that lol