MAFIA 43 - GAME THREAD

[xorxes]

Yes, I would almost argue that the prime minister should announce themselves now as the prime minister PR role is almost useless...and that will give us one of the two conservative town clears town need to guarantee a win.

Nah wait a bit, at least past EoN. It's likely enough a single town decided to mess with the plan to avoid perfect info for the mafia. The townclear is gonna be a clear later.

yeah
bb claimed then retracted which was pretty bad
so whatever townie messed with the plan is a confclear, is that right xorx?

Not sure what you mean here. Claiming to have messed with the plan is obviously not confirmation of a clear. We don't even know if any townie has lied yet, it's possible none has.

[Squigs44]

Off wagoners:

Worcej:
8 posts, with not a lot of substance. Full claimed labour backbencher role, which would be very ballsy for scum worcej to do. Worcej takes a lot of pride in his honesty, so I believe him for now. soft clear town

RagingIke:
Well, he raged. He had his spat with Durga. Also got in a bit of a tizzy over Vapor editing a quote. As far as reads go, he has xorxes town, durga and brain at scum. Votes vapor with the comment “use your posts better”. Left with 15 hours to go, and never returned before EoD. Very weak play from Ike, with almost no substance. Possible scum.

Nephthys:
Mostly ignores brain, but turns out it was Neph who coined the phrase that brain will out himself eventually. Gives analysis on attorney/vapor with a conclusion that Attorney is scummy and votes him. Piggybacks off of bozo to (erroneously) vote vapor, quickly correcting with a vote to thamrick. That whole thing felt a little awkward. Posts a wall where he condemns Attorney for outting a PR and tells him to chill. Votes attorney, making it 7-5 for brain-atto. Notably has brain as his second lynch option after everything he had said about brain. His interaction with piggybacking bozo just felt really weird, but the rest of Neph seems to check out. very slight town

Damo:
Damo is doing his useless sheep thing, except he didn’t even sheep day 1. It surprised me when I saw 50 posts, cause I thought he was way lower than that. Naked vote on flash. Gives a few townreads, then a single scum read of Vapor and votes him for his spat with Attorney. Votes brain for claiming scum, but has this weird question where he asks if brain is actually a PR claiming goon. Later asks if brain’s labour claim is true, which again seems like a really weird question to ask someone. Gives brain a clear for his labour claim, and decides he needs to vote a con claimer. He thinks Ezio is the scummiest (but gives no reason why). Is here around EoD but only posts irrelevant stuff. Nothing good has come from damo, he seems to be just coasting on through. Possible scum.

So for off-wagoners, you can add Ike and damo as possible scum.

Taking all my scum reads together:

Cons in order of scummiest:
Ezio, flash, damo, Ike

Non-cons in order of scummiest:
Emc, thamrick, ND

[xorxes]

Question for you though Xorxes, did you have a stronger scumread on rdrivera or brain at EoD?

I wasn't here at EOD, and I only read bits and pieces from my phone during the hours before EOD, but my impression was that brainbomb was doing everything he could to get lynched, which suggested to me that rivera (or Attorney, who was the other contender and a townlean of mine) was not such a bad idea. I was happy enough with any of them being lynched, probably rivera > brainbomb >> attorney.

[Squigs44]

Oh, and Moscow I didn't do any analysis for since he had a single post. Will re-evaluate that slot when Tom posts more.

[Squigs44]

Question for you though Xorxes, did you have a stronger scumread on rdrivera or brain at EoD?

I wasn't here at EOD, and I only read bits and pieces from my phone during the hours before EOD, but my impression was that brainbomb was doing everything he could to get lynched, which suggested to me that rivera (or Attorney, who was the other contender and a townlean of mine) was not such a bad idea. I was happy enough with any of them being lynched, probably rivera > brainbomb >> attorney.

Do you still believe this with brain voting rdrivera to put him ahead 8-7 2 minutes before EoD?

[Attorney]

kinda waiting to see who nk is
probably vapor tbh but wouldn't be surprised if it was durga or xorx

[xorxes]

I honestly don't think it was an in game thing at all, maybe part of it might be motivated by his being scum and even if it did get some flames going they're all out now. I think that Durga is town, I've had several moments where I'll read a post of hers like the one about Tom being scum and I'll have thought the same thing and not bothered to post about it yet .

That's helpful, thank you.

[Attorney]

i could see the ike/durga being not v/v
durga had some odd posts but ike is reel weak

[Attorney]

Nah wait a bit, at least past EoN. It's likely enough a single town decided to mess with the plan to avoid perfect info for the mafia. The townclear is gonna be a clear later.

yeah
bb claimed then retracted which was pretty bad
so whatever townie messed with the plan is a confclear, is that right xorx?

Not sure what you mean here. Claiming to have messed with the plan is obviously not confirmation of a clear. We don't even know if any townie has lied yet, it's possible none has.

only the woooolvessss knoooow

[Durga]

What is v/v

[RagingIke297]

What is v/v

I'm guessing Vanilla vs Vanilla

[xorxes]

Question for you though Xorxes, did you have a stronger scumread on rdrivera or brain at EoD?

I wasn't here at EOD, and I only read bits and pieces from my phone during the hours before EOD, but my impression was that brainbomb was doing everything he could to get lynched, which suggested to me that rivera (or Attorney, who was the other contender and a townlean of mine) was not such a bad idea. I was happy enough with any of them being lynched, probably rivera > brainbomb >> attorney.

Do you still believe this with brain voting rdrivera to put him ahead 8-7 2 minutes before EoD?

That's the only good thing rivera has going for him, so he probably won't be my first choice for tomorrow.

[bozotheclown]

One of the reasons I voted for Ezio was that I thought it was possible brainbomb was bussing him. I found it suspicious that Vecna moved his vote off of Ezio shortly after damo voted for Ezio which had put Ezio just 2 votes from the top wagon. I would consider possible bussing there if either one turns out to be scum.

[Foxcastle]

Uh, no, I decided you were town a while ago. (Before this nonsense you're spewing now, anyway.)

The suggestion to ND was bait for a reaction test (either ND or Attorney), which obviously never came to anything.

Anyway, I'd forgotten about your forced claim. So I need to take that into consideration.

But there's no way Bozo did what he did unless he knew something.

Are you saying he's scum?

Option 1: Bozo is scum and he tried to tie the vote to protect Rdrivera (hoping to protect Brain as well). Which is a huge risk for scum, although if it succeeded, he'd have looked pretty good for lynching Brain and whether it was scum-v-scum wagons would have been a hypothetical question... If he's scum, he got the worst outcome with BB's modkill, and he couldn't have seen that coming, so I think that makes this likely.

Option 2: Bozo is town and he badly misplayed his last-minute vote, and we got lucky that BB was mod-killed. Despite that I posted after him to note the tie, a decision to change a vote takes a little longer to consider (and you still run the risk of someone else trying to break the tie in the other decision). But I have also seen Bozo save himself with last minute votes as scum, and he has timed them pretty much like this one. That is not to say he's scum this time, but is to say that he knows what he's doing with a last minute vote and knows just how likely it is that anyone could/would counter his vote.

Other factors: Bozo has claimed non-conservative.

I think option 1 is more likely, particularly considering that it was a fluke that BB got mod-killed. If he hadn't claimed non-conservative, I'd be more aggressive on this (I think "you tie, you die" should still be in play even if there's a modkill). As it stands, though, I think looking among the conservative claims is a better strategy than tunneling on him when I'm unlikely to get traction on it.

[xorxes]

kinda waiting to see who nk is
probably vapor tbh but wouldn't be surprised if it was durga or xorx

That's interesting, why do you think they would kill Durga?

[xorxes]

yeah
bb claimed then retracted which was pretty bad
so whatever townie messed with the plan is a confclear, is that right xorx?

Not sure what you mean here. Claiming to have messed with the plan is obviously not confirmation of a clear. We don't even know if any townie has lied yet, it's possible none has.

only the woooolvessss knoooow

Do they?

[xorxes]

What is v/v

I'm guessing Vanilla vs Vanilla

villa vs villa

It's a mu thing, not that I've ever been there

[flash2015]

Flash:
Votes emc early for hedginess. Naked vote on attorney. Talks about mechanics a bit. Gives a slight town read to brain for being quiter. More filler posts. Comments that he doesn’t like the brain wagon because brain is being brain, but does like the attorney wagon (but doesn’t say why). When the attorney wagon dissolves, he votes rdrivera because he can’t see brain as scum, but can with rdrivera. Could be saving brain here, but flash is always a hard character to read, especially since we don’t have any scum meta on him. possible scum

Minor point. I did give reasons in response to Vapour. Did you miss it?

[Squigs44]

Flash:
Votes emc early for hedginess. Naked vote on attorney. Talks about mechanics a bit. Gives a slight town read to brain for being quiter. More filler posts. Comments that he doesn’t like the brain wagon because brain is being brain, but does like the attorney wagon (but doesn’t say why). When the attorney wagon dissolves, he votes rdrivera because he can’t see brain as scum, but can with rdrivera. Could be saving brain here, but flash is always a hard character to read, especially since we don’t have any scum meta on him. possible scum

Minor point. I did give reasons in response to Vapour. Did you miss it?

I just isod 18 players. It's very likely I missed something. The reasons you are talking about are for what? Your vote on attorney?

[Foxcastle]

Also, I am hosed at work and will be doing 12 hours days away from my desk both tomorrow and Wednesday, and will not be online for the next EOD, but will try to check in by mobile for the lynch. If I don't get back today in time to do a more complete EON reads list:

Town
Foxcastle
Xorxes

Lean Town
Vecna
Vapor

Unsure (Towny -> Scummy)
Neph
Damo
emc
Worcej
TomBomb
Percy
Flash
ND
Ezio
RagingIke
Squigs
Durga
Bozo

Scum
Rdrivera
Thamrick
Attorney

(This kind of accounts for party claims, but also kind of ignores party claims.)