Mafia Invitational - Welcome to Wakanda

[bozotheclown]

My last post should read:

The surviving non ND voters besides myself are ghug, Foxcastle, Balki, and Ezio. It is likely at least one is scum.

[Fluminator]

##Vote ND
Willing to switch to Ezio

Ezio had 2 votes, why start a new wagon on ND?

Because Ezio can obvtown easier.

[Foxcastle]

My last post should read:

The surviving non ND voters besides myself are ghug, Foxcastle, Balki, and Ezio. It is likely at least one is scum.

If Squigs is scum, what does that do to your conclusion here?

[bozotheclown]

ND has so far thrown a bunch of shade, and voted Squiggs when his wagon was getting pretty big. The closer to deadline it's getting and the more likely squiggs will get lynched, the more confident he seems to be getting on his vote.

This seems like lazy scum to me.

I did not agree with Fluminator on ND, and his push for the ND wagon could have been to prevent a Squigs lynch if Squigs is scum. Since Squigs apparently is safe today for talking to a dead Tom:

##VOTE Fluminator

Before anyone brings it up, I know I am voting with ghug again and that ghug is currently the top wagon.

[bozotheclown]

My last post should read:

The surviving non ND voters besides myself are ghug, Foxcastle, Balki, and Ezio. It is likely at least one is scum.

If Squigs is scum, what does that do to your conclusion here?

Probably only one is scum if Squigs is scum, with the third scum helping to build the ND wagon.

[rdrivera2005]

##Vote ND
Willing to switch to Ezio

Ezio had 2 votes, why start a new wagon on ND?

##Vote ND

Sounds like a party

Can you give me a game where he was manic scum so I can skim through it?

My advise would be to -not- try to meta-logic yourself into an ND read. Look at his posts for genuine "THESE WOULD ONLY EVER BE THOUGHT OF BY TOWN PLAYERS" type of posts. That is how you can get a dependable townread on the slot. Otherwise, youre just gonna get endgames by ND. When he's trying, he is one of the most convincing scum players on this website. (the very stark exception being two games ago, where he went in full-on trump lol-mode).

Voting for ND just because he would be a threat as scum?

You do realize that logic is roughly similair to the logic being used against Squigs right? I really dont see why youre so opposed to the wagon. ND as town has limited influences on the game, his reads generally arent stellar, but his townplay is often recognizable. but he is a big danger that often endgames if scum. I dont see any problem with taking a small gamble on that here.

In my mind it has a much better chance of flipping scum than the alternatives. So kindly, unless you have reason to townread the slot, shove your shading of our ND wagon .

I'm sold by this reasoning
##VOTE ND

Which part of this sold you? I did not like this argument to vote for ND, it had nothing to do with this game.

I don't like voting ND or Ezio, I'd prefer Rdrivera. But since I like the people on the ND wagon much much better than the ones on the Ezio wagon, I'll
##vote ND

Self preservation with some hedging thrown in.

Fuck. I was leaning towards Ezio. But we can't have a three way tie.

I think you're right about Squig being a better town asset and easier to read later if he's faking. Fine. ##vote ND

Why can't there be a 3 way tie with 4 minutes left? If you preferred to lynch Ezio, why not make a case earlier?

Between ND and Squigs
##vote ND

OK by comparison.

As bad as the ND votes look, probably only one or two are scum. Probably two if Squigs is scum (Squigs and someone else).

The surviving voters besides myself are ghug, Foxcastle, Balki, and Ezio. It is likely at least one is scum.

You wrote all this to came to the conclusion that at least one scum voted ND and that it's unlikely all scum voted together?

[Squigs44]

On a reread of Foxcastle, I realized just how much he hedges and backtracks and rambles. It is almost like every post. Here are just a few of the many examples:

Here is a rambling post:

Generally, I think Ezio is more prone to sitting back and not trying to lead town or come up with weird plans. (His predisposition to no-lynch aside...) So that he put a kinda wacky plan out there there seems out of character, and he even noted that it might have been one of his biggest posts ever. So either he's scum and trying to do something unexpected to make us think that he's town because scum wouldn't draw attention to themselves like that and townies are known to want to try new plans; or he's town and genuinely thinks we have a better shot if we eliminate the best/worst scum/town players. And when you put it like that, it kinda points to scum, but see also the point where I think Ezio is smarter than that... But then, that's exactly the trap I warned about falling into...

Here is a post where he uses all sorts of hedgy language (bolded for your convenience:

I am leaning scum Ezio because I think his plan for lynching people based on who's good/bad scum/town was off. I mean, the plan was flawed, but also it was off that he proposed it. But it's not a strong read. Also, he has posted more and been more engaged than in previous games, which is different, but then this is a different game, and besides, he's been silent for something like 15 hours now, so who knows if that means/meant anything.

I think Ezio is the more interesting flip, so that's where my vote is now, and also to prompt him to participate if he shows back up before EOD. But given that he hasn't been around to make it more or less interesting, I suspect that he will actually not get a wagon today. (I try not to read too much into when people are around, but I also think it's true that we tend to lynch active players over less active players, so lurking is in fact a good scum strategy early on...)

I'm having a little trouble on Damian, but am leaning scum on. He was super awkward, and that's not scummy in and of itself, but there's something off there. Also, his style and tone is different from what I can tell by a brief comparison to his last town game (M33). After the whole color test, I'm not sure what to think—that was silly (not scummy), and some of his questioning after that has gotten better, and I don't have a real baseline for him.

Balki, Xorxes, and Vecna seem pretty townie. But they are often hard for me to read. Ghug and Flum, too.

Bozo seems like town. Or at least seems like he's not scum. I would not vote for Bozo at this point, but I do want to see how that progresses.

I don't scumread ND and rdrivera, and rdrivera is another player that's hard for me to read, but I usually have a better sense of them as time goes by. (And then there's my old theory that when rdrivera is being scumread by a significant portion of game, he's actually town, and when he's mostly townread is when he's scum... We'll see.)

Especially interesting is his part about not expecting Ezio to be a wagon, but still voting him.

Okay, so those posts were pretty early in the game, and it is okay to hedge, since you know next to nothing, right? Well, let's look at a more recent post, where he makes an argument, and then undermines the whole thing with a paragraph at the end with some left-field speculation:

From what I have seen, scum tend to avoid clumping together, so I really doubt all three of them are on ND. That's not perfect in this case, because if Squigs was saved, then the scum had to support the ND wagon to do it. But even in that case, I think at least one scum would go somewhere else, and where better than to bus their scummate who they know is likely to remain on the chopping block in coming days?

If it was town-v-town, then scum didn't need to help the ND wagon at all. My general thought on scum is that they don't want to clump up and they want to blend in, they don't want to be implicated in a mislynch but also don't want to be seen totally avoiding the action, and so the second place wagon is a good place for one of them to land.

But I think this is the smallest game I've played, and that could make a difference (I don't see how, but maybe), and also they have a day chat, which means they can coordinate themselves much better if they do decide to bus/clump/whatever.

Usually, hedging and setting yourself up for an easy backtrack is pretty scummy, because it allows you to switch to whatever is most convenient for you. However, with Foxcastle, it seems more like he is legitimately just thinking out loud, and coming up with new thoughts as he types. This stream-of-thought approach actually has me thinking Fox.

For those that say Foxy is one of the town-locks, what is it about Fox that makes you so sure?

[Squigs44]

I reviewed ND posts and see no reason why he would be considered a scum suspect. This post reflected my thoughts on Squigs voting for me:

Someone want to explain the Squig wagon to me?
He’s looked pretty town to me thus far.

I’m not really buying the low effort vote argument. Considering the pressure vote for bozo got him to engage. (Possibly suspicious, given that Bozo doesn’t have the desire/time to look at anyone else.)

What's to explain. He's rambling about being "hungry to solve" on page 9 then just plops his vote on the lowest guy (probably) I haven't checked with a post history. It's pretty funny.

Why did you feel it necessary to show that ND had a towny post? Does this change your read on anyone that lynched him?

[Squigs44]

Running through EOD, from about page 16.

Flum and Vecna start the ND wagon. If one or both of them is scum, why bring up a new wagon when you already have Bozo (2), Ezio (2), and Damian (2) as viable counterwagons to Squigs (4). At that point, the theory that either Flum or Vecna is scum would need to also include that Squigs is scum, with one of Bozo, Ezio, or Damian also scum, and so Flum or Vecna pushed a new wagon to try to make sure there were as many alternates as possible to save both Squigs and whichever of Bozo, Ezio, and Damian was scum. That seems overly complicated.

Only Squigs and Damian ended up voting ND from that scenario. Bozo was on Squigs and Ezio was on Damian, and those were static votes (Ezio was not around for EOD). Damian's wagon had evaporated by the time he voted, so it wasn't out of self-preservation. Squigs did need to vote ND out of self-preservation.

Actual question for more experienced players: when scum get a wagon like Squigs, how often do their scummates actually come through with a counterwagon to save them? I feel like that discussion comes up a lot on Day 2, but does it ever actually happen? I don't think I've seen it, but they do have a day chat that would facilitate it...

Ezio and Damian were both viable wagons 15 minutes out. Xorxes was the third vote on ND to kinda push them down. I don't see scum in Flum + Vecna + Xorxes, but I admit that those are three that are hard for me to read.

So Squigs, Damian, and Rdrivera are what I see as scum options on ND. But I doubt it's all three of them. From what I've seen, if they can, scum will try to spread themselves out across wagons. If Squigs is scum, did ghug or Bozo bus him, or was that too risky and either Ezio was lurking on Damian, or Balki or I were camping out on Ezio?

see. only need to read like 12 words of this post to know that fox is town. Yep. very c;lear. too many words, sure, but first 12 pretty good

I realize this came right in the middle of your spew of posts, but was this supposed to make sense?

[Squigs44]

Fox, you going to be around next end of day? The only other game I was in with you, you were scum and you always either avoided eod or awkwardly stood there when it happened. I'd like to know if I can expect you to be around next time. (I mean real life is important so I'm not judging, but you know I'm curious)

Awkward standing is kinda my forte, but I expect to be around EOD on Wednesday and Friday, but I have a dinner on Sunday (EOD 4) that I probably won't check in from.

Sunday would be the optimal time to push your wagon then. I'll jot that down in case I'm still here.

If there's any protective role out there consider that in a recent game Tom was the N1 kill and I was the N2 kill, so please bear that in mind.

This post is just so weird on both parts. The first part seemed like a forced joke, and the second part others have talked about already, why bring this up?

Has Xorxes actually solved anything for us yet? A lot of his posts are one or two word phrases like "buddying", "townie post", or "good observation", and his longest post is like three lines long. Xorxes usually has at least one detailed post by now where he assembles a scum team.

[ghug]

ND has so far thrown a bunch of shade, and voted Squiggs when his wagon was getting pretty big. The closer to deadline it's getting and the more likely squiggs will get lynched, the more confident he seems to be getting on his vote.

This seems like lazy scum to me.

I did not agree with Fluminator on ND, and his push for the ND wagon could have been to prevent a Squigs lynch if Squigs is scum. Since Squigs apparently is safe today for talking to a dead Tom:

##VOTE Fluminator

Before anyone brings it up, I know I am voting with ghug again and that ghug is currently the top wagon.

Who the fuck thinks about shit like this as town?

[Balki Bartokomous]

My last post should read:

The surviving non ND voters besides myself are ghug, Foxcastle, Balki, and Ezio. It is likely at least one is scum.

Did I vote ND? I don't remember voting ND. Am I mistaken?

[Vecna]

ND has so far thrown a bunch of shade, and voted Squiggs when his wagon was getting pretty big. The closer to deadline it's getting and the more likely squiggs will get lynched, the more confident he seems to be getting on his vote.

This seems like lazy scum to me.

I did not agree with Fluminator on ND, and his push for the ND wagon could have been to prevent a Squigs lynch if Squigs is scum. Since Squigs apparently is safe today for talking to a dead Tom:

##VOTE Fluminator

Before anyone brings it up, I know I am voting with ghug again and that ghug is currently the top wagon.

what? no he should t be safe for that bullshit. he should ve lunched since he hasnt done shit

[Fluminator]

(1) I'm sorry, this start time is bad for me. I haven't done anything, and I'm really not going to have much time to do anything tomorrow or Tuesday either. But on Wednesday I'm going to be a rock star.

I'm on the edge of my seat in anticipation.

[Vecna]

Running through EOD, from about page 16.

Flum and Vecna start the ND wagon. If one or both of them is scum, why bring up a new wagon when you already have Bozo (2), Ezio (2), and Damian (2) as viable counterwagons to Squigs (4). At that point, the theory that either Flum or Vecna is scum would need to also include that Squigs is scum, with one of Bozo, Ezio, or Damian also scum, and so Flum or Vecna pushed a new wagon to try to make sure there were as many alternates as possible to save both Squigs and whichever of Bozo, Ezio, and Damian was scum. That seems overly complicated.

Only Squigs and Damian ended up voting ND from that scenario. Bozo was on Squigs and Ezio was on Damian, and those were static votes (Ezio was not around for EOD). Damian's wagon had evaporated by the time he voted, so it wasn't out of self-preservation. Squigs did need to vote ND out of self-preservation.

Actual question for more experienced players: when scum get a wagon like Squigs, how often do their scummates actually come through with a counterwagon to save them? I feel like that discussion comes up a lot on Day 2, but does it ever actually happen? I don't think I've seen it, but they do have a day chat that would facilitate it...

Ezio and Damian were both viable wagons 15 minutes out. Xorxes was the third vote on ND to kinda push them down. I don't see scum in Flum + Vecna + Xorxes, but I admit that those are three that are hard for me to read.

So Squigs, Damian, and Rdrivera are what I see as scum options on ND. But I doubt it's all three of them. From what I've seen, if they can, scum will try to spread themselves out across wagons. If Squigs is scum, did ghug or Bozo bus him, or was that too risky and either Ezio was lurking on Damian, or Balki or I were camping out on Ezio?

see. only need to read like 12 words of this post to know that fox is town. Yep. very c;lear. too many words, sure, but first 12 pretty good

I realize this came right in the middle of your spew of posts, but was this supposed to make sense?

I dno, it was me drunkposting.....sooooo....probably not?

[Fluminator]

Awkward standing is kinda my forte, but I expect to be around EOD on Wednesday and Friday, but I have a dinner on Sunday (EOD 4) that I probably won't check in from.

Sunday would be the optimal time to push your wagon then. I'll jot that down in case I'm still here.

If there's any protective role out there consider that in a recent game Tom was the N1 kill and I was the N2 kill, so please bear that in mind.

This post is just so weird on both parts. The first part seemed like a forced joke, and the second part others have talked about already, why bring this up?

Has Xorxes actually solved anything for us yet? A lot of his posts are one or two word phrases like "buddying", "townie post", or "good observation", and his longest post is like three lines long. Xorxes usually has at least one detailed post by now where he assembles a scum team.

The burden of having the "good player" meta.
See, xorx is a solid null right now for me, and I think a lot of the scumreads are just people expecting him to be better. Is this fair xorx?

Do you feel like you're struggling more this game than average?

[Balki Bartokomous]

I have a bit of work to catch up on this morning. Afterwards, I look forward to curling up in a tufted leather armchair, with a cup of oolong tea, and crushing scumdreams.

I will also be taking questions, so please feel free to submit them now.

[Fluminator]

Ghug/Flum get off each other. It's a waste of time and we're not going to get any useful reactions this way.

You two need to throw shit at Squiggs and Damian.

Those two are by far the most useful flips at the moment.

This is for you.
##vote Squiggs.

[Ezio]

ND has so far thrown a bunch of shade, and voted Squiggs when his wagon was getting pretty big. The closer to deadline it's getting and the more likely squiggs will get lynched, the more confident he seems to be getting on his vote.

This seems like lazy scum to me.

I did not agree with Fluminator on ND, and his push for the ND wagon could have been to prevent a Squigs lynch if Squigs is scum. Since Squigs apparently is safe today for talking to a dead Tom:

##VOTE Fluminator

Before anyone brings it up, I know I am voting with ghug again and that ghug is currently the top wagon.

Who the fuck thinks about shit like this as town?

I do. All the time. It's important to know what trails you're leaving. If people pick up on them, they're probably scumhunting. I think posting it is a mistake.
Furthermore, we specifically told him to post more. I think he's doing that.

[Ezio]

Ghug/Flum get off each other. It's a waste of time and we're not going to get any useful reactions this way.

You two need to throw shit at Squiggs and Damian.

Those two are by far the most useful flips at the moment.

This is for you.
##vote Squiggs.

OMG I love you flum <3.
When ghug turns out to be scum you can mock me for a few days at least. Depending on how this day goes I could easily see him being scum.

Why squiggs over dam?