M72 - “Echoes of Evelyn” - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[rdrivera2005]

I really think damo's town, y'all.

That's something I agree. I think last scums are between you, Chaqa and Gold, with Bona being a wildcard.

[rdrivera2005]

I don't actually want to kill Jamie today.

Rd deciding I'm scum based on one day of voting while ignoring the previous two is both lazy and very much wondering I could see scum laying the groundwork for right now having realized that I'm going to have to be a miskill at some point. ##VOTE rd

kgray voting me is just because she's mean and bad, I think.

Why you think I am scum? Do you think I bussed borh Celaph and Vecna and didn't get any credit at all doing this?
I presented a clear reason to why I think you are scum, but you are just deflecting my question and tryng to set a wagon on me because you know people would vote me.

My criticism of your lazy vote was a reason you're scum. I've also found you exceptionally lackluster this game, and we're at the point where most potential scum would have had to bus somewhere. Your late vote on celaph, either to break a tie or to pile on, and your vote on Vecna, which came early in the day on someone who had the potential to be a runaway wagon and certainly wasn't going to survive indefinitely don't hold that much water.

You are just reinforcing my point. When I buss as scum I do it to get some advantage, like that game we were scum together and I bussed you and Vecna in the right moment to live to the end and win. This game I don't expect or want to live to the end and this is my biggest town tell (other then the 100% confirmed vanilla town thing).

Why did you tried to save Vecna more then once yesterday?

[ghug]

Why you think I am scum? Do you think I bussed borh Celaph and Vecna and didn't get any credit at all doing this?
I presented a clear reason to why I think you are scum, but you are just deflecting my question and tryng to set a wagon on me because you know people would vote me.

My criticism of your lazy vote was a reason you're scum. I've also found you exceptionally lackluster this game, and we're at the point where most potential scum would have had to bus somewhere. Your late vote on celaph, either to break a tie or to pile on, and your vote on Vecna, which came early in the day on someone who had the potential to be a runaway wagon and certainly wasn't going to survive indefinitely don't hold that much water.

You are just reinforcing my point. When I buss as scum I do it to get some advantage, like that game we were scum together and I bussed you and Vecna in the right moment to live to the end and win. This game I don't expect or want to live to the end and this is my biggest town tell (other then the 100% confirmed vanilla town thing).

Why did you tried to save Vecna more then once yesterday?

It was the right moment to bus Vecna. My not voting for him yesterday has (rightfully) aroused some suspicion. Your celaph vote made me not want to kill you anymore for a couple days, so we can call that the right moment too.

I tried to save Vecna yesterday because HR and gold were more exciting options to me, because I thought the Fox case was stupid D1 and he was more null than scum, and because for a little while I thought he was softing cop.

Let's turn this around: why wouldn't I bus Vecna yesterday if I was scum with him? It was deeply obvious he was going to have to flip at some point (I even alluded to this when asking if he was ever going to participate), and there's a pretty obvious downside to not being on the wagon? How does my pushing of Durga and celaph affect your read of me? Why am I suspicious for pushing others and not HR, gold, bona, etc.?

[Chaqa]

##Vote Bona

[Bonatogether]

##Vote Bona

i'm resigned to being a daykill at some point

i've played poorly this game

[Chaqa]

##Vote Bona

i'm resigned to being a daykill at some point

i've played poorly this game

I think you’re town but I fear we need to get it out of the way to un-tunnel people

[Bonatogether]

##Vote Bona

i'm resigned to being a daykill at some point

i've played poorly this game

I think you’re town but I fear we need to get it out of the way to un-tunnel people

if there's enough people tunneling, they'll either finally get me killed or get over it when they realize there's not a majority behind that. Infokilling me isn't the play here when a majority of people are not sold on the idea that i'm all but conf!scum

[Chaqa]

##unvote

I need to sleep on things

I’m kinda back to wanting to maybe vote ouT HR

[goldfinger0303]

@Maniac: Do you think that it is likely that Goldfinger is the God Father?

@Goldfinger: D'you think it's likely that Maniac's the Godfather?

Please nobody else answer for them. I want indiviudal replies from Maniac and Gold, not anyone else answering on their behalf.

Hey Jamiet,

I don't think that Maniac is the Godfather. And here's why.

DAY ONE
Fluminator (8): Jamiet99uk, TheFlyingBoat, damo666*, Chaqa, Hellenic Riot, rdrivera2005, bozotheclown, ghug
BobMcBob (5): Maniac, DeathLlama8, Durga, celaph, kgray
TheFlyingBoat (4): BobMcBob, Bonatogether, BusinessLamp, DemonRHK
Hellenic Riot (1): goldfinger0303
ghug (1): Vecna
Durga (1): Donny Dude
rdrivera2005 (1): Fluminator

Maniac ended on BobMcBob D1. That would've put him with scum!Durga and scum!celaph. It's too much concentration for scum, even on D1, and could serve as a soft clear for Bob once they started dropping. My hypothesis is that the remaining scum are Flum or TFB voters. (Specifically bona, damo and HR...though I'm coming around on rdrivera). Scum like to spread around D1 votes, and Vecna was already the solo voter. So that, in my mind, decreases the likelihood of a GF Maniac (or a scum!kgray).

The other reason being that DL doesn't have any greater insight than the rest of us on who GF is. I'm not sure what the repeated message of respect the dead meant. Nor what the R meant in his last message...maybe his next target was rdrivera? The strict probability that Maniac is town is higher than the probability that he's scum. Even if we say DL had narrowed down the pool to 4 scummy candidates to scan....that's a 75% chance of a true inno. I'd rather carry on as we've been carrying on, since y'all have been doing so good.

[goldfinger0303]

From my perspective goldfinger is as likely to be GF as anyone else.

That’s not really the point though. From a town perspective obviously we can’t both be scum which means we are very bad kills. Town optimum strategy is to daykill two other people today and tomorrow. There are no 13 players left. So from any non-scanned town perspective everyone else has a 2/12 (1/6) chance of being scum apart from me and goldie who have a 1/12 chance of being scum.

If we random hit Goon today then innocent scans are useless.

If we ranDom hit GF then goldie and I are useful and next two nightkills.

If we random hit town then scum still have to NK one of us because they can’t afford innocent scans to remain if we hit GF the following day.

Now obviously mafia isn’t about randomly killing people, it’s about educated guessing. If town genuinely think goldie or I are certain GF then off course we should die tonight.

Maniac confirmed town.

[goldfinger0303]

Oh shit did my bolding not work? Maniac was using contractions all through that post.

[goldfinger0303]

I agree the right play is to avoid voting Gold and Maniac at least for a while.
I am not sure HR is scum anymore after last day. Still possible, but less likely.

I had a feeling that keep getting back that Ghug is scum, the way he tried to get Vecna off the hook yesterday is what I expect from scum Ghug.

##vote Ghug

##Vote rdrivera

Nobody goes after my boy.

[TheFlyingBoat]

##Vote Bona

i'm resigned to being a daykill at some point

i've played poorly this game

I think you’re town but I fear we need to get it out of the way to un-tunnel people

Are people that tunneled on Bona? It's not like Bona has gotten that many votes. I still think you're town for now, but a lot of your voting suggestions have made little to no sense to me. I don't get why we would flip Bona to un-tunnel when we can go after better targets. Like RDR looks way scummier to me and has done very little to make me see him more positively in the recent past, Donny is still MIA and HR is right to call him out for coasting, even if he is town. Bob also is MIA and was also inactive Day 4. I think Bona could be a fair target tomorrow or the day after, especially if we haven't found the GF yet, as I don't think Bona is an ordinary goon if he is scum and is someone I would like to potentially flip right before we have to go into the goldie/maniac resolution.

[goldfinger0303]

@bona - why are you resigned to being a daykill? There's hardly any traction on your wagon and only a handful of people calling for votes on you. Hell, I tried to solicit a wagon for you yesterday, and nobody turned up.

Why does it sound like your energy levels have steadily decreased throughout the game? You weren't happy when celaph was killed. And I really haven't gotten a sense of eagerness or joy from any of your posts in a while.

[goldfinger0303]

Also I will have to agree with ghug that the longer this game goes on, the more town damo has seemed. Gonna see what I can on a re-read of rdrivera.

[goldfinger0303]

So, some stats on rdrivera.

D1 - 14/21 in posts, 31.4 words per post. Voted for 3 people, and nobody until 3 hours left in the day. All votes were on confirmed or likely town. Changed to Flum with 10 to go when Flum was already a lead wagon.

N1 - 16/20 in posts, 70.2 words per post. Note: Celaph no posted.

D2 - 18/19 in posts, 34 words per post. Voted for 2 people, with change over to scum!celaph in last second of the day....possible someone refreshing could've seen Bob and Jamiet move. Possible not. But it would be the second time hopping on a wagon after it was clear it would win.

N2 - 15/18 in posts, 24.5 words per post. Note: Vecna and damo no posted.

D3 - 16/17 in posts, 59.8 words per post. Voted HR and stayed on HR all day long.

N3 - 16/16 in posts, 27 words per post. Note: Vecna no posted.

D4 - 14/15 in posts, 47 words per post. Voted Vecna beginning of the day and stayed on them.

N4 - 9/14 in posts, 45.6 words per post. Nobody no-posted last night.

Now what does this tell us? I'm not sure Rdrivera is pretty much *the* lowest level participant here. We also have several confirmed scum not posting at all at nights. Is the scum team simply *that* lazy?

Also, something seemed to happen in the last night to spur rdr on to greater content generation(that or dissuade the rest of town from joining).

All in all, I'd say its worth it to keep at the lazy scum angle. Worked with Vecna, could work again.

[goldfinger0303]

***I'm not sure. Rdrivera....

[rdrivera2005]

My criticism of your lazy vote was a reason you're scum. I've also found you exceptionally lackluster this game, and we're at the point where most potential scum would have had to bus somewhere. Your late vote on celaph, either to break a tie or to pile on, and your vote on Vecna, which came early in the day on someone who had the potential to be a runaway wagon and certainly wasn't going to survive indefinitely don't hold that much water.

You are just reinforcing my point. When I buss as scum I do it to get some advantage, like that game we were scum together and I bussed you and Vecna in the right moment to live to the end and win. This game I don't expect or want to live to the end and this is my biggest town tell (other then the 100% confirmed vanilla town thing).

Why did you tried to save Vecna more then once yesterday?

It was the right moment to bus Vecna. My not voting for him yesterday has (rightfully) aroused some suspicion. Your celaph vote made me not want to kill you anymore for a couple days, so we can call that the right moment too.

I tried to save Vecna yesterday because HR and gold were more exciting options to me, because I thought the Fox case was stupid D1 and he was more null than scum, and because for a little while I thought he was softing cop.

Let's turn this around: why wouldn't I bus Vecna yesterday if I was scum with him? It was deeply obvious he was going to have to flip at some point (I even alluded to this when asking if he was ever going to participate), and there's a pretty obvious downside to not being on the wagon? How does my pushing of Durga and celaph affect your read of me? Why am I suspicious for pushing others and not HR, gold, bona, etc.?

I am suspicious of Gold and Bona, just not voting Gold because of the scan. About HR, I was scumreading him, but last day Vecna voting him made me reconsider a bit.
I am not so sure bussing Vecna was the obvious move to scum. Having the RBer with Maniac claiming Cop would be great for scum. Maybe not if they are sure about Demon, but I didn't see it coming.

[Maniac]

I’m going to ##vote Rdriveria

He uses the word probably seven times which is a sure sign he’s a liar.

He also never uses ‘I’m’ preferring ‘I am’ but I’m going to put that down to him having English as a second language.

[damo666]

Curious that HR is on lots of people's lists yet garnering no votes.

Let's try ##vote HR and see what happens.

Note that I would prefer Bona and will move back there if that wagon gains traction.