M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[damo666]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

Damo, choose any group of four. Collectively, the group is very likely to contain at least one scum.

That doesn't support your position here. You need to explain why the members of this particular foursome are more likely to flip scum than a random foursome. I don't believe you have made that case persuasively. But I'm listening.

As at yesterday there were 18 town and 5 scum. Randomly pick 4 the chances they are all town is (18*17*16*15)/(23*22*21*20) = 34.6% [1dp]

The chance of 4 townies voting town both days 11.9%.

I think this is a significant enough difference to support my assertion.

[Balki Bartokomous]

@Damo, come chat.

[damo666]

a) like it's in my control
b) it formed really fast near EoD

So this is true. The brain wagon formed quickly. Can you talk more about your thought process during this time? Did you consider taking a more active part? Did you underestimate the pace of the brain wagon forming? Did you second guess your town reads? Did you put your phone down for a bit and play Parcheesi?

You are right that the brainbomb wagon formed quickly, and you don't necessarily control everyone else's vote. Can you talk about how those things specifically impacted your actions and posts?

I interrupted my Netflix watching for the last 10 minutes or so of EoD skimming the thread to catch up. Was somewhat surprised to see the extent of the brain wagon. Was pleased HB looked like he was gonna be saved but disappointed it was brain that was gonna be the saviour. I indicated my TvT position by supporting worcej's post. I didn't want to vote who I considered a town to save a town (and of course my reads could be wrong) and the thought crossed my mind that with last minute shenigans there was always the chance of a tie, probably inadvertently, so I left my vote on kgray.

[Balki Bartokomous]

As at yesterday there were 18 town and 5 scum. Randomly pick 4 the chances they are all town is (18*17*16*15)/(23*22*21*20) = 34.6% [1dp]

The chance of 4 townies voting town both days 11.9%.

I think this is a significant enough difference to support my assertion.

I am trying to follow your logic here.

Let's just talk about a group of 1 to make the math easier, and then when we agree we can apply it to a group of four.

If we have one person who we know voted for town twice in a row, you are saying that we should compare (a) the random chance that any person is town (18/23) to (b) the chance of someone voting town twice in a row, if they were voting randomly (something much lower than 18/23)?

I don't see why we are comparing those things?

(1) votes are not random at all. They are influenced by, among other things, scum who are voting, cajoling, and wagoning with more info than the rest of us, and

(2) I think you need to compare (i) the chance of a townie voting to kill a townie twice in a row, with (ii) the chance of a mafia member voting to kill a townie twice in a row. But you can't really do that objectively with statistics. It isn't random. There are reasons to think that a mafia player would want to vote to kill a townie on a leading wagon (to kill townies), and there are competing reasons why a mafia player would not want to vote to kill a townie on a leading wagon (exposure, suspicion).

So, I am not sure if it is empirically true that a given player in a mafia game who voted on the leading wagon to daykill a townie twice in a row is more likely to be a mafia member than any random player, or less likely to be a mafia member. That is a complicated question that can't be answered with simple math.

[Balki Bartokomous]

a) like it's in my control
b) it formed really fast near EoD

So this is true. The brain wagon formed quickly. Can you talk more about your thought process during this time? Did you consider taking a more active part? Did you underestimate the pace of the brain wagon forming? Did you second guess your town reads? Did you put your phone down for a bit and play Parcheesi?

You are right that the brainbomb wagon formed quickly, and you don't necessarily control everyone else's vote. Can you talk about how those things specifically impacted your actions and posts?

I interrupted my Netflix watching for the last 10 minutes or so of EoD skimming the thread to catch up. Was somewhat surprised to see the extent of the brain wagon. Was pleased HB looked like he was gonna be saved but disappointed it was brain that was gonna be the saviour. I indicated my TvT position by supporting worcej's post. I didn't want to vote who I considered a town to save a town (and of course my reads could be wrong) and the thought crossed my mind that with last minute shenigans there was always the chance of a tie, probably inadvertently, so I left my vote on kgray.

This explanation sounds pretty reasonable to me, actually. I'd be interested to hear what other people think about it.

[Maniac]

So this is true. The brain wagon formed quickly. Can you talk more about your thought process during this time? Did you consider taking a more active part? Did you underestimate the pace of the brain wagon forming? Did you second guess your town reads? Did you put your phone down for a bit and play Parcheesi?

You are right that the brainbomb wagon formed quickly, and you don't necessarily control everyone else's vote. Can you talk about how those things specifically impacted your actions and posts?

I interrupted my Netflix watching for the last 10 minutes or so of EoD skimming the thread to catch up. Was somewhat surprised to see the extent of the brain wagon. Was pleased HB looked like he was gonna be saved but disappointed it was brain that was gonna be the saviour. I indicated my TvT position by supporting worcej's post. I didn't want to vote who I considered a town to save a town (and of course my reads could be wrong) and the thought crossed my mind that with last minute shenigans there was always the chance of a tie, probably inadvertently, so I left my vote on kgray.

This explanation sounds pretty reasonable to me, actually. I'd be interested to hear what other people think about it.

I get Damo's explanation and voting for a tie is generally always considered a scum move so people tend never to do it. It is anti-town play as it prevents us getting any information from the daykill.

However, after Damo had the option of at least trying to force a tie and didn't take up that option, why does he them say after the flip "I'd have been happy with a tie"? That's the bit that raises my hackles.

[damo666]

I interrupted my Netflix watching for the last 10 minutes or so of EoD skimming the thread to catch up. Was somewhat surprised to see the extent of the brain wagon. Was pleased HB looked like he was gonna be saved but disappointed it was brain that was gonna be the saviour. I indicated my TvT position by supporting worcej's post. I didn't want to vote who I considered a town to save a town (and of course my reads could be wrong) and the thought crossed my mind that with last minute shenigans there was always the chance of a tie, probably inadvertently, so I left my vote on kgray.

This explanation sounds pretty reasonable to me, actually. I'd be interested to hear what other people think about it.

I get Damo's explanation and voting for a tie is generally always considered a scum move so people tend never to do it. It is anti-town play as it prevents us getting any information from the daykill.

However, after Damo had the option of at least trying to force a tie and didn't take up that option, why does he them say after the flip "I'd have been happy with a tie"? That's the bit that raises my hackles.

After brain flipped confirming his town status and believing HB to be town of course I would have been happy with a tie. I have no problem saying so.

[damo666]

As at yesterday there were 18 town and 5 scum. Randomly pick 4 the chances they are all town is (18*17*16*15)/(23*22*21*20) = 34.6% [1dp]

The chance of 4 townies voting town both days 11.9%.

I think this is a significant enough difference to support my assertion.

I am trying to follow your logic here.

Let's just talk about a group of 1 to make the math easier, and then when we agree we can apply it to a group of four.

If we have one person who we know voted for town twice in a row, you are saying that we should compare (a) the random chance that any person is town (18/23) to (b) the chance of someone voting town twice in a row, if they were voting randomly (something much lower than 18/23)?

I don't see why we are comparing those things?

(1) votes are not random at all. They are influenced by, among other things, scum who are voting, cajoling, and wagoning with more info than the rest of us, and

(2) I think you need to compare (i) the chance of a townie voting to kill a townie twice in a row, with (ii) the chance of a mafia member voting to kill a townie twice in a row. But you can't really do that objectively with statistics. It isn't random. There are reasons to think that a mafia player would want to vote to kill a townie on a leading wagon (to kill townies), and there are competing reasons why a mafia player would not want to vote to kill a townie on a leading wagon (exposure, suspicion).

So, I am not sure if it is empirically true that a given player in a mafia game who voted on the leading wagon to daykill a townie twice in a row is more likely to be a mafia member than any random player, or less likely to be a mafia member. That is a complicated question that can't be answered with simple math.

Of course any random player is more likely to be town than someone who has voted town twice in a row (by definition since a townsperson could have voted scum) but this is not the point at all.

The point is a group of 4 having all voted town twice in a row is significantly less likely to be ALL town than a random group of 4. Roughly 1 in 9 compared to 1 in 3.

Obviously there is more than just randomness involved but that just strengthens my argument imo.

[Vecna]

Re: Brain, Given that he was town, I think it does give a bit more heft to his EON from N1, as well as his deathbed last will and testament.

Ghug put a lot of energy into detailing the reasons to scumread brainbomb. @ghug, you were also making several if/then statements...if brain is cum then <insert name> is probably town.

What revisions would you make now, and who do you see as more town now vs more scum?

You did move the vote around throughout the day, so I think you were doing some evaluating, checking what stuck.

Excellent typo... lol...

[Vecna]

On phone with a bit of time.

There’s some horrific posts from Fluminator at EoD, someone might be able to quote them but there’s one where he says he won’t switch cause it’ll tie it then goes on to say it’s TvT

Very scummy

Flum is only scum if HB is scum. Also, these feelings are not scummy at all by themselves.

[Vecna]

People love to assert random things and scummy or townie this game its so... Bizarre.

Its almost as bad as people continuing to scumread people for HEDGING!!@!

[Vecna]

If I was a doctor, I'd be saving Kgray right now.

id be saving me

[Vecna]

What do you think about him declaring you town but not helping save you?

Now that I'm back and had some time with it...it doesn't make sense. I have to put me in that exact situation and I draw this conclusion. "I'm going to declare townread, but I personally am not convinced. I, instead, will hope to pull votes off of them, and on to someone else." So why do that?

Bear with the thinking. It's the motivation that I'm concerned about. Would town do that? Town would probably move to that competing wagon. Why would town not move? Not really convinced.

Scum motivated? They know I'm town. Know Brainbomb was town. Let the TvT play out?

Do you think damo really tried to pull votes away from you? Even if he wasn't willing to move to brain, do you think he honestly tried to get people to vote for me?

As far as the motivation: if my strongest townread were on the block I'd do everything I could to get votes off them. For example, see how I worked to get rid of the bozo wagon. I think town!damo would care enough to do this too. And it's more than just him not voting for brain - he just let the brain wagon form. He didn't speak out against it until 2 minutes before EOD when he said the wagons were TvT. At no point did he do anything to protect his "townreads."

So it's not *just* about him not voting to save you. It's actually much worse that. I'm pretty convinced at this point that scum!damo knew it was TvT and didn't care which of you went. And by staying on my wagon, which wasn't going to be the lead wagon at that point, he get's to avoid being part of a wagon that kills town.

He's scum.

You really should let go of this bozo thing and look again with a critical eye to what he has actually done this game.

[Vecna]

If I was a doctor, I'd be saving Kgray right now.

And if I was a vig, I'd be shooting her.

You should do that thing you were advocating for so strongly and listen to other peoples opinions some time

[Vecna]

If I was a doctor, I'd be saving Kgray right now.

And if I was a vig, I'd be shooting her.

You should do that thing you were advocating for so strongly and listen to other peoples opinions some time

Just to illuminate the issue: My townread of Kgray here is stronger than my townread for Dargo, Seth and Jamiet combined in the last game.

[Jamiet99uk]

T-0:11: Jamie votes brain even though no one has asked him and he has not asked anyone. (kinda scum. i think coordinator is still ranting in QT at this point)

What's this fucking rubbish?

I'm only allowed to vote if someone asks me to?

This is a new rule I was not consulted on.

[Vecna]

Lmao
Here I was worried i obvtowned too much and would get nightkilled.
Come at me bros.

not even close

[Jamiet99uk]

That was a humble brag that I'm FB friends with him.

Don't mind me.

Sorry, you're humble bragging you are friends with Jamie on facebook?

Yes, Worcej is my Facebook friend. What of it?

[Jamiet99uk]

I'm not very caught up on tonight's discussions. Anything anyone wants to ask me?

[Jamiet99uk]

Bozo has been very quiet tonight.

I think I will be voting for Maniac tomorrow but I have not forgotten about Bozo and how dreadful he is. Don't think I've forgotten you, Bozo. I haven't.