M62: PEOPLE'S DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF REVOLUTIONARY MAFIA GAME THREAD!

[Balki Bartokomous]

Oh yea, if anyones interested in my current PoE

1. Hellenic Riot
4. Jamie
5. ghug
11. celaph
12. worcej
17. bozotheclown
18. e.m.c^42
22. Yoyoyozo

What does that mean? You think that all remaining scum are in that group?

[Nephthys]

Oh yea, if anyones interested in my current PoE

1. Hellenic Riot
4. Jamie
5. ghug
11. celaph
12. worcej
17. bozotheclown
18. e.m.c^42
22. Yoyoyozo

What does that mean? You think that all remaining scum are in that group?

With the exception of the conf scum - Flum/HB/teacon

[aarodactyl]

You were born and raised in Kirkland.

Shall we move our Mafia QT meetings to Salty's on Alki? Where does kgray live? Maybe we can Skype her in?

My girlfriend lives in West Seattle. I can't recommend driving there right now.

She was born in Kirkland too, go figure.

I heard they’re fixing the bridge instead of replacing it. So hopefully it’s possible to drive there soon

[Balki Bartokomous]

I heard they’re fixing the bridge instead of replacing it. So hopefully it’s possible to drive there soon

Hey you, @aarodactyl, how's it going?

[Maniac]

I’m also reversing my HR read. I had him in scum pool and he is now firmly In my Town pool.

How come? (re both the early scum read and the change to a town read)

Putting HR in to my scum pool was a result of some VCA. I looked at who could have been bussing teacon and who might’ve been saving him and voting ND. I figured HR and Vashta might have been the bussers and aarodactyl, JamieT and BrainBomb might have been the Teacon saviours. Obv I was wrong about BrainBomb.

I’ve moved HR from scum pool to town pool following same ‘logic’ as why I think Ghug is town. I can’t see scum HR jumping on a new town wagon in last 40minutes unless the three lead wagons are all scum (which I consider highly unlikely).

[Balki Bartokomous]

What are you looking at in the thread right now and why?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Putting HR in to my scum pool was a result of some VCA. I looked at who could have been bussing teacon and who might’ve been saving him and voting ND. I figured HR and Vashta might have been the bussers and aarodactyl, JamieT and BrainBomb might have been the Teacon saviours. Obv I was wrong about BrainBomb.

I’ve moved HR from scum pool to town pool following same ‘logic’ as why I think Ghug is town. I can’t see scum HR jumping on a new town wagon in last 40minutes unless the three lead wagons are all scum (which I consider highly unlikely).

Why wouldn't scum!ghug or scum!HR start a new town wagon if, let's say, exactly one of the three leading wagons was on a scumbucket? Are you saying that scum!ghug or scum!HR would (a) necessarily be acting to save a teammate rather than to appear townie, and (b) necessarily believe that one of the already existing wagons was a more effective way to save a teammate?

What if scum!ghug/scum!HR already had stated that they townread the other wagons and they didn't feel they had the flexibility to move there? What if scum!ghug/scum!HR believed that brainbomb was more likely to outpace their teammate wagon because there were lots of people in the thread saying they'd be willing to vote for brainbomb and the other town wagons seemed static? What if scum!ghug/scum!HR was primarily focused on appearing townie long-term and so they opted to act how they thought their townselves might act, which motivated them to start a new wagon?

Have you considered these questions already and ruled them out? Or do you think they are all unlikely? How do these questions impact your analysis?

[Maniac]

From Bonatogether’s long post...

“ T-0:43: ghug switches from maniac to brain, for the reason that if it comes down to it, it's obvious which of the HB/kgray/balki (6/4/4 at the time) trio he'd choose, but he prefered to get brain out. (He hadn't been voting any of the major wagons for at least 30 hours. wack)”

Unless HB/Kgray/Balki are all scum why would scum Ghug try to get a new wagon going here. Surely he’d jump on a town wagon. As I’m town reading HB/Kgray/Balki I now strongly town read Ghug. He is now my strongest town read.

Wow, Maniac, I strongly disagree with this reasoning.

You are assuming so much about the purpose of this vote. And your ghug read is derivative on three! other reads, which you just cannot possibly be so sure about.

Putting the roles of HB, kgray, and Balki to the side, don't you think Scum!ghug might just start up a brainbomb wagon because he is trying to imitate Town!ghug and he feels like that's what Town!ghug would do there?

Considering that brainbomb is town, it would make plenty of sense for Scum!ghug to float that new wagon, regardless of the alignments of HB/kgray/Balki. Scum!ghug is not so predictable that he would necessarily relax and do nothing if he's not too worried about the way the votes are trending. Nor is Scum!ghug so predictable that he would necessarily run off and push a new wagon if he is concerned that one of his scumbuddies is about to be voted out.

It's just not that easy. Right?

Sometimes the game can be easy and we over complicate it.

My reasoning isn’t based on all three lead wagons at the time being town. (HB/Kgray/Balki), it based on at least one of them being town. I happen to town read them all. If I’m wrong then sometimes you just have to say ‘well played,you all fooled me’. But I don’t think I am wrong about all three.

Your own reasoning needs looking at though. You seem to be saying “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play” whilst at the same time your saying “Ghug could be starting that new wagon to appear town”. Both can’t be truly surely?

[Balki Bartokomous]

Your own reasoning needs looking at though. You seem to be saying “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play” whilst at the same time your saying “Ghug could be starting that new wagon to appear town”. Both can’t be truly surely?

Hmmmm, then I am not communicating clearly. I certainly do not agree with this statement: “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play.”

How did I imply that?

[aarodactyl]

What are you looking at in the thread right now and why?

Me? I can’t sleep and so I’ve been checking in to see if there’s anything new. I don’t have much to contribute, just general confusion at why the brain train happened.

[Balki Bartokomous]

What are you looking at in the thread right now and why?

Me? I can’t sleep and so I’ve been checking in to see if there’s anything new. I don’t have much to contribute, just general confusion at why the brain train happened.

I have to confess, I haven't really focused on you at all. Can you tell me how you have voted and why?

[Maniac]

Putting HR in to my scum pool was a result of some VCA. I looked at who could have been bussing teacon and who might’ve been saving him and voting ND. I figured HR and Vashta might have been the bussers and aarodactyl, JamieT and BrainBomb might have been the Teacon saviours. Obv I was wrong about BrainBomb.

I’ve moved HR from scum pool to town pool following same ‘logic’ as why I think Ghug is town. I can’t see scum HR jumping on a new town wagon in last 40minutes unless the three lead wagons are all scum (which I consider highly unlikely).

Why wouldn't scum!ghug or scum!HR start a new town wagon if, let's say, exactly one of the three leading wagons was on a scumbucket? Are you saying that scum!ghug or scum!HR would (a) necessarily be acting to save a teammate rather than to appear townie, and (b) necessarily believe that one of the already existing wagons was a more effective way to save a teammate?

What if scum!ghug/scum!HR already had stated that they townread the other wagons and they didn't feel they had the flexibility to move there? What if scum!ghug/scum!HR believed that brainbomb was more likely to outpace their teammate wagon because there were lots of people in the thread saying they'd be willing to vote for brainbomb and the other town wagons seemed static? What if scum!ghug/scum!HR was primarily focused on appearing townie long-term and so they opted to act how they thought their townselves might act, which motivated them to start a new wagon?

Have you considered these questions already and ruled them out? Or do you think they are all unlikely? How do these questions impact your analysis?

I hadn’t considered all your questions, but happy to now.

Ghug in particular did have the flexibility to move to one of the lead wagons. I’d have to re-read HR. I think the speed of the Beainbomb wagon surprised most people although yes perhaps scum Ghug and scum Ghug could’ve assessed who was likely to follow them. Having someone in the scum QT increases the chances that it was a coordinated move. But again why start that new wagon? A coordinated push on just 1 of the 3 lead wagons would’ve pushed that one enough surely?

Whilst I’m always grateful to people who raise questions, I’m not swayed at all from my thoughts after considering your questions. I’m aware, of course, that confirmation bias generally makes us defend our initial thoughts.

[Maniac]

Your own reasoning needs looking at though. You seem to be saying “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play” whilst at the same time your saying “Ghug could be starting that new wagon to appear town”. Both can’t be truly surely?

Hmmmm, then I am not communicating clearly. I certainly do not agree with this statement: “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play.”

How did I imply that?

In effect I said “starting a new wagon 43mins out is town play”and you strongly disagreed with me. Therefore you seem to be strongly implying that “no one could consider the move town play”.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Ghug in particular did have the flexibility to move to one of the lead wagons. I’d have to re-read HR. I think the speed of the Beainbomb wagon surprised most people although yes perhaps scum Ghug and scum Ghug could’ve assessed who was likely to follow them. Having someone in the scum QT increases the chances that it was a coordinated move. But again why start that new wagon? A coordinated push on just 1 of the 3 lead wagons would’ve pushed that one enough surely?

Well, a coordinated push is costly, right? It is a very rare thing, especially this early in a game, for scum to all move together to push a a vote over the top.

Let's assume that either or both of ghug and HR are scum and one of their teammates is at risk of being voted off. They don't have to necessarily predict that brainbomb is going to be a runaway wagon in order to move over there. They might dash over there for a moment and see what happens, without being sure that they'll stay there or try something else. Then the new wagon becomes a flash wagon, and their win condition goal comes to fruition. That's certainly possible.

But what I suspect is most likely, for each of HR and ghug, is their primary motivation is to look townish themselves. They want to win by surviving until the end. They are not primarily focused on "taking one for the team" to save their teammate if it puts them at risk. So the main question they are asking themselves is not "how do I save my teammate?," but "what would town!ghug/town!HR do here?"

I would expect this would be their main motivation. I am surprised that your reads seem to ignore this to the point of ruling it out.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Your own reasoning needs looking at though. You seem to be saying “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play” whilst at the same time your saying “Ghug could be starting that new wagon to appear town”. Both can’t be truly surely?

Hmmmm, then I am not communicating clearly. I certainly do not agree with this statement: “no one could ever think starting a new wagon 43 minutes out could be considered town play.”

How did I imply that?

In effect I said “starting a new wagon 43mins out is town play”and you strongly disagreed with me. Therefore you seem to be strongly implying that “no one could consider the move town play”.

I am definitely not saying "nobody would consider that town play." I am saying that you are giving "strong town" reads for something that seems Null to me. That is, something that scum!ghug or scum!HR might do, regardless of the alignments of the three leading wagons at the time.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Where'd ya go, little flying dino?

[damo666]

kgray, ghug, durga, Jamie and HB have all voted to kill BOTH town ND and town brain. HB's brain vote is excusable due to self-preservation but as for the other four....they can't all be town can they?

Tomorrow I think we should contain our votes to these 4 plus Maniac.

You're right damo, it's totally unreasonable that townies who know only their own alignment would vote two townies in a row, so therefore we must be sum....

A probability person like you should know that this makes no sense.

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

[damo666]

What do you think about him declaring you town but not helping save you?

Now that I'm back and had some time with it...it doesn't make sense. I have to put me in that exact situation and I draw this conclusion. "I'm going to declare townread, but I personally am not convinced. I, instead, will hope to pull votes off of them, and on to someone else." So why do that?

Bear with the thinking. It's the motivation that I'm concerned about. Would town do that? Town would probably move to that competing wagon. Why would town not move? Not really convinced.

Scum motivated? They know I'm town. Know Brainbomb was town. Let the TvT play out?

Do you think damo really tried to pull votes away from you? Even if he wasn't willing to move to brain, do you think he honestly tried to get people to vote for me?

As far as the motivation: if my strongest townread were on the block I'd do everything I could to get votes off them. For example, see how I worked to get rid of the bozo wagon. I think town!damo would care enough to do this too. And it's more than just him not voting for brain - he just let the brain wagon form. He didn't speak out against it until 2 minutes before EOD when he said the wagons were TvT. At no point did he do anything to protect his "townreads."

So it's not *just* about him not voting to save you. It's actually much worse that. I'm pretty convinced at this point that scum!damo knew it was TvT and didn't care which of you went. And by staying on my wagon, which wasn't going to be the lead wagon at that point, he get's to avoid being part of a wagon that kills town.

He's scum.

a) like it's in my control
b) it formed really fast near EoD

[Balki Bartokomous]

The chances of 4 townies all voting town both days is (19/25)*(17/22)^4=11.9%.

It is therefore quite likely there is at least 1 scum in the four (another way of saying not ALL town). The chance an individual town randomly votes 2 town in a row is about 58.7% so not taking anything else into account any one individual is more likely to be town but collectively the group is very likely to contain AT LEAST ONE SCUM.

Yet again you choose to misconstrue what I say to throw shade at me. You need to detunnel.

Damo, choose any group of four. Collectively, the group is very likely to contain at least one scum.

That doesn't support your position here. You need to explain why the members of this particular foursome are more likely to flip scum than a random foursome. I don't believe you have made that case persuasively. But I'm listening.

[Balki Bartokomous]

a) like it's in my control
b) it formed really fast near EoD

So this is true. The brain wagon formed quickly. Can you talk more about your thought process during this time? Did you consider taking a more active part? Did you underestimate the pace of the brain wagon forming? Did you second guess your town reads? Did you put your phone down for a bit and play Parcheesi?

You are right that the brainbomb wagon formed quickly, and you don't necessarily control everyone else's vote. Can you talk about how those things specifically impacted your actions and posts?