Not alibi for voting Ike, I said "plausible deniability", and I meant for not moving his vote in the EOD chaos. Since we're stuck on that particular phrase that I threw out unrealizing of its awesome powers of distraction, let me clarify. (Also, I'm not looking back at what I wrote before, so feel free to seek out all the inconsistencies and contradictions between this and what I wrote in the heat of my frustration at Balki.)Jamiet99uk wrote: ↑Fri May 18, 2018 9:20 amFoxcastle - the way you just backed out of your confrontation with Balki was a bit weird.
I think you should answer the question: Why would scum Balki need an alibi for voting for scum Ike?
This is all assuming Balki is scum, and Ike is scum, and Balki wants to bus Ike for town cred. My scumread on Balki was prompted by other clues, not by his absence EOD1; the "plausible deniability" sidequest sprung up from seeing if there was a reasonable story in which Balki was scum and missing EOD made sense.
The best outcome for Balki is not actually that Ike gets lynched on D1. The best outcome is closer to what actually happened: Ike is scum, but we mislynch a Townie, so Balki basically banks some towncred for later in the game when Ike actually flips. (But if Ike flips, immediate towncred is fine, too, of course.)
But there's a risk to get to that strategy during the EOD vote chaos, because so much can happen in the last minutes of the day—another scum wagon could come up, a townie could slip up and end up looking too scummy not to lynch, etc. Who knows, maybe even the lead wagon could claim PR! You've seen more of it than I have, Jamiet, so you know. And that creates problems for Balki, who just wants to bus Ike, because while we scrutinize when and why people change their votes at EOD, we always heavily scrutinize decisions not to change a vote.
What I meant by plausible deniability refers to a hypothetical that never quite happened on Day 1: that Balki would need an explanation for why he stayed on Ike when the situation changed, and the easiest explanation for that is "sorry guys, I wasn't around."
It's easy to dismiss that in hindsight because it never happened, but trying to look at it from Balki's perspective in that moment. It's 40 minutes out, Ike is leading with 5 votes, but Peter and Jamiet are both at 3. Plenty of time for something to happen, especially with 3 other scum out there who might try to save Ike. Balki is a smart player and knows Ike is a smart player, so he's probably considered that Ike will claim if he's on the block (it seems like a pretty basic scumplay). But bussing Ike is a good play, so how does Balki avoid getting sucked into the chaos and avoid leaving a trail of actions (or inactions) to be analyzed later? He leaves.