M60 - Duck Season? (Director's Cut) - Game Thread

[TrPrado]

Hey, Vecna. Why you vote Prado?

“So wrong it’s creepy” implies you thought I had ulterior motive with the riddler question, no? Why aren’t YOU voting for me?

[Tom Bombadil]

(I took it as damo making sure you didn't just eliminate 2 more people from being jailer)

If this was the case he'd want to not say anything.

I'm trying to impress on you to refrain from making slips that narrow down the jailer pool you great nit. I'd be happy to wager large jailer is not durga nor kgray and now scum know it. Think before posting.

Well. Yes. But Chaqa is saying it may have not been noticed had you not shouted it from the mountatintop

[damo666]

If this was the case he'd want to not say anything.

I'm trying to impress on you to refrain from making slips that narrow down the jailer pool you great nit. I'd be happy to wager large jailer is not durga nor kgray and now scum know it. Think before posting.

Well. Yes. But Chaqa is saying it may have not been noticed had you not shouted it from the mountatintop

The mountatintop?

I think it would for sure be noticed. I'm showing him how he has to be extra careful.

[TrPrado]

If this was the case he'd want to not say anything.

I'm trying to impress on you to refrain from making slips that narrow down the jailer pool you great nit. I'd be happy to wager large jailer is not durga nor kgray and now scum know it. Think before posting.

Well. Yes. But Chaqa is saying it may have not been noticed had you not shouted it from the mountatintop

I noticed and I'm stupid

[BunnyGo]

Hey, Vecna. Why you vote Prado?

“So wrong it’s creepy” implies you thought I had ulterior motive with the riddler question, no? Why aren’t YOU voting for me?

I’m considering it. But the conversation since then has convinced me you were likely just wrong from lack of consideration.

[ghug]

If you had known what?

That Chaqa was jailed.

So does that mean you did not realize he was jailed?

Yes, I said as much to Bunny already. I hadn't really internalized that there was a jailer.

[ghug]

(I took it as damo making sure you didn't just eliminate 2 more people from being jailer)

If this was the case he'd want to not say anything.

I'm trying to impress on you to refrain from making slips that narrow down the jailer pool you great nit. I'd be happy to wager large jailer is not durga nor kgray and now scum know it. Think before posting.

Town points for damo. This is the sort of thing scum are uncomfortable saying.

[ghug]

I'm trying to impress on you to refrain from making slips that narrow down the jailer pool you great nit. I'd be happy to wager large jailer is not durga nor kgray and now scum know it. Think before posting.

Well. Yes. But Chaqa is saying it may have not been noticed had you not shouted it from the mountatintop

I noticed and I'm stupid

I noticed and Prado's stupid

[bozotheclown]

That Chaqa was jailed.

So does that mean you did not realize he was jailed?

Yes, I said as much to Bunny already. I hadn't really internalized that there was a jailer.

So to be clear, you were saying that you did not realize Chaqa was jailed, but if you had, you would say that you did not realize Chaqa was jailed?

[ghug]

So does that mean you did not realize he was jailed?

Yes, I said as much to Bunny already. I hadn't really internalized that there was a jailer.

So to be clear, you were saying that you did not realize Chaqa was jailed, but if you had, you would say that you did not realize Chaqa was jailed?

Yep

[Vecna]

I realize this is ambiguous. Yes, he was softing scum.

Hold up. Can you expand on this?

Vecna asked if seth was softing anything. As a joke, I said yes, he was softing scum.

It really wasnt about seth though

[Vecna]

I think Donny's D1 voting looks the most suspicious.

There was a significant amount of time where Donny was a top wagon along with summit. During this time, he tried to help build wagons on Tom and Nanook but never voted for summit. Donny later voted for damo when damo was leading summit 4-3, then when summit had retaken the lead from damo, Donny switched to Maniac. Despite choosing all of these votes over summit, Donny never mentioned summit until EOD, and the reasons he gave for these votes were not particularly strong:









##VOTE Donny

Even though ive been townreading donny all of D1, I might actually feel inclined to like this logic. There has been this gnawing feeling that all his posts feel very good on the surface, but there still is a lack of extremely stand-out townposts as he had in his first game I think it was? (where he got miskilled due to that slip iirc).

Weren't you the main person pushing his wagon after that secretary "slip"? Yet now you think he had extremely stand-out townposts that game?

Yes, I was hard townreading him all game until that slip happened. Even when it happened I was trying hard to just get him to explain properly how he found that role, but he flaked.

[Vecna]

Was thinking gerneally about potential busters of summit and I think kgray is pretty unlikely. She has shown she can definitely bus, but as someone who saw firsthand how summit struggled last time, I don’t think she would immediately throw him on the tracks this game.

I understand the angle of bussing the potential weak link, but I don’t know if kgray would be cold blooded enough to do that to someone she just played with as scum and saw struggle.

did she start before or after the "show offline" thing became a thing?

Not that im really suspicious of her whatsoever, but ill stick to my earlier observations that her play is actually a bit closer to how she reasons and plays as scum than as town.

3p is still something to keep in mind maybe, for much much later on, if she somehow remains unresolved.

Are you asking if I voted for summit before or after Flum accused him of being scum for having his status hidden?

If so, then after, but obviously not because he's invisible.

Why are you not really suspicious of me whatsoever if you think I'm playing like my scum meta? You jumped down Tom's throat for townreading me earlier. How can you not be suspicious at all?

A lot has happened since I attacked Tom. Theres a host of reasons why theres simply no point in humoring any suspicion (which has lessened a lot) at this time, and even if youre not as aggresive and chasing down people as much as you did last game, it can also easily be explained by other factors (such as you already having an obvious scum target to pursue, taking up your attention).

Besides, I dont need to come after you. You'll most likely be dead soon enough, youre not going to endgame anything in this game, even in the low chance that my initial tingle was correct.

[Vecna]

Very suggestive*


@Vecna can you please make more of an effort to not use the l-word? It's been enough games at this point that it feels like you're not trying.

Old habits die hard with me, im trying but in the heat of the moment its just one of those autopilot things.

[Vecna]

They were designed with a limited target audience in mind: worcej, Flum, kgray, Durga, maybe a couple others from M59. In that game when I was cop with a guilty scan on Gold, I talked about how I'd entered Nirvana as my only defense of my read. So here I just made a lot of Nirvana/Kurt Cobain references. So much so that Tom called out that Nirvana sucked and then we went down some side trail about Seattle bands.

yeah ok, so blatant as fuck crumbs

lol what. I've never disagreed with anything you've said more.

the fact that suddenly a bunch of people were talking about the band means that they were not hidden very well, no?

Like, Chaqa's crumbs were well hidden. These are like "hidden, but meant to be spotted".

[Chaqa]

Before I dive into the player-by-player vote analysis, I want to touch on the last five minutes of the phase. Summit claimed Porky Pig on page 76. At the time, the wagons looked like this:

Summit (9): Bozo, Durga, flash, Fluminator, ghug, HR, kgray, Moscow, Tom
Maniac (7): Damo, Donny, Nanook, rivera, seth, summit, TrPrado
Nanook (2): Chaqa, worcej
Donny (1): BunnyGo
Unvoted (2): Maniac, Vecna

I think if Summit had teammates on his wagon at some point, they would most likely have switched off prior to this point. The Maniac and summit wagons had been growing, so there's no reason to stay on summit unless you had really backed yourself into that corner.

After his fake-claim, a few people have interesting reactions:
- Moscow wanted a quick CC.
- Flum didn't believe it.
- HR questions it.
- Kgray doesn't think a CC is a good idea (in response to Moscow).

I think all of these reactions (combined with them being summit voters) seem towny enough. Really, I think at most there's one scum in the group of 9 summit voters at the time of his claim.

The group of other voters:
Bunny
Damo
Donny
Maniac
Nanook
Seth
TrPrado
Vecna
worcej

I think we can relatively safely eliminate Maniac as scum for now since he was the major counterwagon to Summit.

The Damo wagon was neck in neck with Summit at one point. It was 6-6, with this layout at the time:

Damo (6): ghug, Moscow, seth, Tom, TrPrado, worcej
Summit (6): Bozo, damo, Durga, flash, HR, kgray

The moves after that:
worcej switches from Damo to Nanook
Vecna unvotes
Moscow switches from Damo to Naook
Flum switches from Nanook to summit
ghug switches from damo to Vecna, then to Nanook

At this point the damo wagon has more or less collapsed. I think the shift FROM damo means it's relatively unlikely he is also scum (though not impossible).

Filtered group:
Bunny
Donny
Nanook
Seth
TrPrado
Vecna
worcej

There wasn't any movement after my claim really, so now we need to look back at earlier in the day. As I write this sentence, I haven't done this yet in this context, so I'm going to be looking for:
1. People who voted summit earlier but were not on him before his claim.
2. People who never voted summit.

Bunny:

##vote Donny Dude

I hate his post parroting kgray

##vote Tom
gah

I don’t understand the summit wagon at all. ##vote Donny ##end

This post by Bunny aligns with his not voting summit. Additionally, this post later and interaction with rivera is a point I don't think scum would point out?

I totally agree that Summit won't claim if Maniac was scum. Yes, he can be traitor, but it's a less likely possibility, so I would give Maniac some credit.

On VCA, Ghug, Moscow and Tom get most towny points. Prado and Damo get most scummy points. Worcej also doesn't look good, but I still don't get scum vibes from him. And everybody already pointed this

Kgray is a solid town, she was the one giving a solid reason to scumread Summit, having played with scum Summit before. Flum reasoning is weird, but I don't see scum bussing that way. I would add Flash, HR and Durga to probably town (at least not people to worry at D2). The late voters are less towny as we should have some bussers.

My top scum suspects are now Prado, Bunny and Seth. Nannok also by elimination. Damo and Worcej could be fooling me, but I still townread them.

Why wouldn’t summit claim if he knew Maniac was scum? He got a CC out of it.

This post will look bad for Bunny later ***IF*** Maniac turns out to be scum, but otherwise I think it's a slight town indicator.

Donny -
Not only did Donny not vote summit until my claim, using the bot, he did EVERYTHING IN HIS POWER to bot not vote Summit, and to barely mention him. Not a lot else to say, there wasn't much interaction there. But Donny voted on basically every wagon besides summit before the claims.

Nanook -
Nanook did not vote summit, and never mentioned him outside of quoting one Flum post involving him. Nanook also doesn't have much claim as a counterwagon to summit as the voters on Nanook (besides worcej) are part of the 10 (9 plus me) "soft clears" for this analysis' purpose.

Nanook looks real scummy.

Seth -

Perfectly happy to see summit flip because he has seemed scummy to me as well. But if he isn’t scum maniac is public enemy number 1 imo.

I really don't like these wagons, though, and I think Nanook, seth, Prado, and others are getting off too easy.

Lol after maniac claimed scum and possibly signaled traitor? If summit isn’t scum on the flip I will be convinced that maniac is.

These posts by Seth look good to me, tbh. But at 7 minutes until EoD he says:

Perfectly happy to see summit flip because he has seemed scummy to me as well. But if he isn’t scum maniac is public enemy number 1 imo.

Yet didn't vote Summit. Did he disappear conveniently?

Suspicious but I'm a bit unsure.

TrPrado -
Copy/paste URL: http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... t=d1-&g=60

Just read through this, and Prado's posts/votes in general. Man is super scummy.

Vecna - Heavy defense of summit:

##VOTE summit

Join us, Moscow.

This feels like a mistake. The easier way to read summit is to just leave him alone and push content naturally and judge that.

Itll be hella easy very quickly.

This feels like a mistake. The easier way to read summit is to just leave him alone and push content naturally and judge that.

Itll be hella easy very quickly.

Do you have a read on summit now?

loads of questions suddenly eh

summit has not done anything. we all know it. being less active on the first day of day1 is not how I read that slot though.

Although, I like this reaction by Vecna:

Perfectly happy to see summit flip because he has seemed scummy to me as well. But if he isn’t scum maniac is public enemy number 1 imo.

So, scum lean but a bit unsure.

Worcej - I'll do him later, this post is too long and i got bored lol

[Chaqa]

TL;DR:

Bunny
Donny
Nanook
Seth
TrPrado
Vecna
worcej

This group of 7 is likely to have most of the scum in it. Rough ranking:

Prado > Donny/Nanook > Vecna/Seth > Bunny
(worcej ranking TBD)

[Vecna]

This is soooo wrong as to be creepy.

No it isn’t. If jailer does NOT protect from the riddler there is zero reason for Chaqa to be alive. If that’s the case then either the riddler is unable to achieve win condition OR if we have the freelancer then it is bad for town to look for 3P. Freelancer is effectively a miskill since their win condition doesn’t contradict ours.

The riddler must identify the exact role, so they would only have had a 1/3 chance of killing Chaqa, which is one reason why it was a good idea for Chaqa to crumb and claim the way he did.

this seems unlikely? That role would be completely unfair if that is the case

[Vecna]

##call gm: Can the riddler kill bugs bunny by just citing bugs bunny correctly? or does he need to distinguish correctly between the three possible roles bugs can have?

[Donny Dude]

(I took it as damo making sure you didn't just eliminate 2 more people from being jailer)

If this was the case he'd want to not say anything.

I'm trying to impress on you to refrain from making slips that narrow down the jailer pool you great nit. I'd be happy to wager large jailer is not durga nor kgray and now scum know it. Think before posting.

I like this post from Damo. Seems towny. T
Looking at m55 activity for him and m60 shows a clear difference. At least for d1 and n1.