M1015 - Super Mafioso Bros

[Hellenic Riot]

I'm glad to see that Macca has once again found it in himself to sheep someone else without uttering a single original thought of his own

[rdrivera2005]

I will ##vote HR.

It's more a gut feeling, but last time I had this feeling I was right.

Scum only need one town to vote wrong to win, so I suggest we consolidate at least 10 minutes before EOD to avoid giving scum a chance to a last minute swap to win. Also, it will be important to have all townies around at EOD so it will be riskier to scum to do a last minute push.

Could you answer to point (2) in Kgray's big post just there?

I answered, she didn't like the answer. You posted, then Bo spamned the thread, I slipped all the Bo's posts and didn't see your post that was just before his. I jumped to next page and saw Kgray's post questioning Vecna on something I thought was more like a joke. As I also thought he was doing the same with me I call her picky. Don't know why she is getting back to this now, but I had already explained and you can either believe or not.

[Hellenic Riot]

Time to start afresh then, so let's roll with some VCA. I shall be so kind as to mark myself in cyan rather than green for the rest of you who don't know I'm town.

Starting with D1 then, a day which had no significant wagons until the very end, so I'll take the initial starting point as 2 hours to go:

At this point we have:
damo666(2): bozo, vecna
rdrivera2005 (2): damo666, kgray
Macca573 (2): Hamilton Brian, summit_fever
Hellenic Riot (1): Jamiet99uk
kgray (1): rdrivera2005
bozotheclown (1): Macca573

Not voted/unvoted (2): Hellenic Riot, bo_sox48

Here we see the eventual deciding wagon, damo, which was clearly initiated by people we know are town. Rdrivera and Macca are the other lead options, but given the lead is just 2 votes, pretty much anyone was on the table at this point. So let's see what happens after that:

1:54 to go: Jamie votes summit
1:18 to go: Rdrivera votes Jamie
1:18 to go: Jamie votes damo, first putting damo into the lead
53 to go: Vecna votes Jamie
51 to go: Hellenic Riot votes Jamie
44 to go: damo, after briefly unvoting, votes Jamie
40 to go: Hamilton Brian votes damo
23 to go: Vecna votes damo
18 to go: bo_sox48 votes Macca573

Pausing it here, let's do a new count:

damo666(4): bozo, Jamiet99uk, Hamilton Brian, vecna ,
Jamiet99uk (3): rdrivera2005, Hellenic Riot, damo666
Macca573 (2): summit_fever, bo_sox48
rdrivera2005 (1): kgray
bozotheclown (1): Macca573

What we now have is looking like a straight Damo vs Jamie fight, until Bo's vote for Macca puts a third wagon back on the table. Remember that Bo had been defending Jamie at this point, too.

Continuing on:

12 to go: kgray switches from rdrivera to Jamie (4/4/2)
11 to go: summit switches from Macca to Hamilton Brian (4/4/1/1) - end of Macca wagon
6 to go: Hamilton Brian switches from damo to Jamie (5/3/1/1), putting Jamie into the lead for the first time
5 to go: rdrivera switches from Jamie to damo (4/4/1/1), having been the first person to vote Jamie originally - Interesting move
5 to go: Hellenic Riot switches from Jamie to Hamilton Brian (4/3/2)
4 to go: kgray switches from Jamie to Hamilton Brian (4/2/3)
4 to go: Hamilton Brian makes self preservation switch from Jamie to damo (5/3/1)
3 to go: Bo, after defending Jamie earlier, now switches from Macca to Jamie (5/3/2)
2 to go: Damo makes self preservation flip from Jamie to Hamilton Brian
1 to go: Bo switches from Jamie to Damo, ends possibility of a tie. End of Day with Damo dead.

damo666 (6): bozotheclown, Jamiet99uk, Vecna, rdrivera2005, Hamilton Brian, bo_sox48
Hamilton Brian (4): summit_fever, Hellenic Riot, kgray, damo666
bozotheclown (1): Macca573

Possible conclusions here: The Jamie wagon reached its peak with a 2 vote lead until the first person to vote him (rdrivera) flipped off onto the counterwagon, and then the second person (Hi!) decided to join the HB wagon. rdrivera's change was based on a post where Jamie had called me as scum (going by what he quoted), and rdrivera deciding he liked Jamie as town - right after he'd said that Bo & Summit would decide it when they got off their vanity wagons. Interestingly, he did not include Macca in this statement.

summit's vote of HB at the time very much looked like beginning another vanity wagon right when Jamie had gone joint top, and when people on the Jamie wagon (myself and kgray) had suggested we would be open to voting HB. summit also took his vote off the Macca vanity wagon right after Bo had first brought it into play as a viable third wagon.

Bo's defence of Jamie when he was a viable candidate and then voting him when he was no longer a realistic option is also worth noting.

Possible defences going on: rdrivera defending Jamie? Me defending Jamie (top memes)? summit defending Jamie or maybe Macca? Bo defending Jamie? Essentially, if anyone was protected, it was probably Jamie. Not to say that that that did happen of course.

Shall do D2 in a separate post to keep these fairly readable.

[Hellenic Riot]

Day Two had the battle lines drawn up much more clearly in advance, and a period of 25 hours where the vote count didn't change whatsoever, so let's start off from there with one hour to go. Vecna is now marked in yellow because he was clear:

Hellenic Riot (5): bozotheclown, Jamiet99uk, Vecna, rdrivera2005, Macca573
Jamiet99uk (2): kgray, Hamilton Brian
Hamilton Brian (1): Hellenic Riot

Not voted (2): Bo_sox48, summit_fever

Clearly at this point I am very much on the block, and had been at 5 votes (aside from one minute where HB had made it six) from the very start, with the Jamie wagon being begun by kgray when I already had five, and HB making it look likely to be a straight fight between me vs Jamie unless I could get some traction onto HB. First things to note is that of the three people who ended D1 on HB and weren't dead (Myself, kgray, summit), only I had revoted him. Bo had not renewed a vote on Jamie at the start of the day despite his late vote for Jamie D1. Macca was no longer pursuing Bozotheclown, which he stated in the same post where he agreed with the amazing points Vecna had made that made me scum.

So, from here on:

50 to go: Vecna switches from Hellenic Riot to summit_fever (4/2/1/1)
28 to go: kgray switches from Jamiet99uk to bozotheclown (4/1/1/1) - Probable end of viable Jamie wagon
21 to go: summit_fever votes bo_sox48 - Starting a vanity wagon close to EoD for the second day running
11 to go: bo_sox48 votes summit_fever in return, putting summit into second place (4/2/1/1)
8 to go: Hamilton Brian makes his infamous switch from Jamiet99uk to summit_fever that would later get him killed (4/3/1) - I remain bewildered that he did this as town and thought it would result in my death, but that's enough of this
7 to go: kgray switches from the tractionless bozo wagon to Hamilton Brian - Initially this appeared to be a direct reaction to HB's vote, but apparently kgray had already hit preview on her HB post when she saw that. (4/3/2)
4 to go: bo_sox48 switches from summit_fever to Hamilton Brian (4/3/2, with HB overtaking summit as the alternative wagon)
3 to go: Jamiet99uk, after tunnelling Hellenic Riot all day, changes to summit_fever (3/3/3)

At this point, the shitshow begins:

1 to go: Vecna changes from summit_fever to Hamilton Brian (4/3/2)
1 to go: bo_sox48 changes from Hamilton Brian back to summit_fever, apparently in a crosspost with Vecna (3/3/3)
1 to go: summit_fever, also apparently in crosspost, changes from his vanity wagon on Bo to voting Hellenic Riot, apparently in opposition to HB being voted and presumably in self-preservation. (4/3/3)
1 to go: bo_sox48, having seen Vecna's change, changes once again from Hamilton Brian to summit_fever (4/4/2)

At this point the day ends in a tie, right before rdrivera2005 is able to change his vote from Hellenic Riot to Hamilton Brian, which would have seen HB killed.

Hellenic Riot (4): bozotheclown, rdrivera2005, Macca573, summit_fever
Hamilton Brian (4): Hellenic Riot, kgray, Vecna, bo_sox48
summit_fever (2): Hamilton Brian, Jamiet99uk



Things to Note:

- For the second day running, summit_fever enters near an EoD and starts a vanity wagon. Unlike D1, this one gets no traction whatsoever, and his last second change back off of it is critical to the vote getting tied at the end.
- At the time where it first started to look like I might not be killed (IE when Vecna changed), the first person to react was kgray, who took Jamie off the table as the likely counterwagon.
- Bo joining Vecna on summit made that into the new potential alternative wagon, quickly joined by HB: *suppressed grunting noises*
- After Bo made summit into the alternative wagon, kgray then joins me on HB and is the first person to make HB a viable wagon.
- Jamie's change from me to summit is what made the first initial tie, and is very interesting considering how hard Jamie had tunnelled me all day
- Bo quite clearly flipped between summit & HB at the EoD in an attempt to protect me

Possible Defences/Conclusions: kgray's votes are the most notable in this regard, with the first change taking Jamie off of the table as a viable wagon, and the second one putting HB onto it right as summit was gaining traction. And of course, kgray had spent the whole day putting alternatives to myself on the table. So kgray could be protecting me, Jamie (less likely), or summit (most interestingly).

Besides that, and Bo's very obvious defence of me, summit started his vanity wagon rather than join the wagon on me, but then voted me at the end regardless - Possibly someone who had wanted to get credit for not voting me knowing that I would flip town, but then decided to join it at the end (he'd have gained even more credit had rdrivera's vote gone through and HB been killed). So Summit would have been able to look good had I died, or HB died, both of which would have given town flips.

Any idea that summit was protecting me is also pretty much dashed here with his late vote onto me rather than onto HB.

Now, onto D3.

[Hellenic Riot]

Short one here, as D3 had essentially no movement. Hamilton Brian went straight up to two votes early on from rdrivera2005 and Hellenic Riot

After this Bo_sox48 had voted summit_fever, which is the only time an alternative even came close to overtaking HB (and still with 48 hours to go, although an ENDVOTE was not out of the question at this time given both myself and Bo had voted to end). kgray then voted Hamilton Brian, and Bo then joined before Jamie joined to put it at five votes for HB.

Bozotheclown later joined HB on Hellenic Riot and made me into the only counterwagon option for a while, before Jamie and then summit_fever voted Macca573, briefly putting Macca as the option with two votes (Bozo had changed off me onto summit by then) - This put it at 4/2/1/1 with Hamilton Brian/Macca/Hellenic Riot/summit_fever)

After that, the only changes were Jamie moving back to HB and Macca joining, taking it to the 6 votes that it ended with, and then Bozo cycling votes between kgray, rdrivera, and summit at the EoD.

[TheMadMonarch]

And from all that, what conclusions do you draw?

[Hellenic Riot]

So, patterns that continued through the whole game:

Summit continued to sit on vanity wagons for the most of the game, aside from when he caused the ties at the dying seconds on D2, although his vanity wagon on Hamilton Brian transformed into the main counterwagon D1

Of potential partners for summit: He could certainly have been trying to protect Jamie D1, and both kgray and summit could arguably have been making sure Jamie wasn't the counterwagon when I stopped being the deadcert kill D2. On the flip side, Jamie switching to summit after tunnelling me all game was certainly not Jamie making any attempt to protect summit D2... Though it was just plain weird, and could be a late bus attempt - Perhaps because everyone on Summit at that point (Bo_sox, Vecna, and Hamilton Brian) were town, and scum wanted to make sure at least one scum was bussing if he died?

The same could be said about kgray voting Jamie D1 when the momentum was on him (it took it to 4-4) before dropping off onto HB the second that became viable instead. Indeed, looking at VCA alone, a Summit/Jamie/Kgray team is not out of the realms of possibility.


Although I keep going back to rdrivera's post about how Summit & Bo will decided what happens D1 because they were vanity wagons, and his ignoring of Macca in that statement, because it really suggests rdrivera knew that Macca wasn't going to change vote, and it's bothering me a lot.

[Hellenic Riot]

*That should be Jamie tunnelling me all day, not all game.


@Jamie

Why did you vote Summit at EoD2? This seems to have been overlooked as we all focused on Hamilton Brian's own bizarre change of votes, and you today even called out how HB voting summit instead of his strong scumread (Me!) was always likely to get him scumread/daykilled, despite doing something similar yourself...

[Hellenic Riot]

Oh, and ##vote summit_fever

[Jamiet99uk]

*That should be Jamie tunnelling me all day, not all game.

@Jamie

Why did you vote Summit at EoD2? This seems to have been overlooked as we all focused on Hamilton Brian's own bizarre change of votes, and you today even called out how HB voting summit instead of his strong scumread (Me!) was always likely to get him scumread/daykilled, despite doing something similar yourself...

It is incorrect to say that I tunnelled you all of D2. Certainly I scumread you and I pushed you that day, but "tunnelled" is an exaggeration. I also scumread Summit and made this clear. I am sure that I had also said that Summit was my preferred alternative if you weren't going to be hung.

Unfortunately the Bot is down so I can't just pull out every quote. I know that I made several posts D2 attacking Summit.

I moved from you to Summit and stayed there when all the votes were flipping around, partly because your defences to my "tunnelling" made me doubt my read on you, and partly because Bo_Sox declared he was going to move to Summit to break any tie. I didn't want to inadvertently cause a tie by moving back off Summit at the same time.

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh the bot is working again.

@HR: Here are some of my D2 posts pushing Summit, just to demonstrate that I clearly called him out as a strong scumread (along with you), and that I wasn't just tunnelling on you as you thought:

My guess for the scum right now is HR, Summit, and, um, some other person.

yeah, summit, do stuff

We could kill him. What do you think about that?

You'd prefer to kill him over HR?

I'd happily swing either of them right now. They are my two strongest scum-reads.

This is a very quiet EOD.

Summit can't be bothered to play. Bo_Sox can't be bothered to vote. Nobody is here.

Summit's claim that Bo hasn't done anything is really odd. Bo's actually been quite active.

God dammit ##VOTE SUMMIT

Can't shake the feeling Summit is low-activity scum.

[rdrivera2005]

So, patterns that continued through the whole game:

Summit continued to sit on vanity wagons for the most of the game, aside from when he caused the ties at the dying seconds on D2, although his vanity wagon on Hamilton Brian transformed into the main counterwagon D1

Of potential partners for summit: He could certainly have been trying to protect Jamie D1, and both kgray and summit could arguably have been making sure Jamie wasn't the counterwagon when I stopped being the deadcert kill D2. On the flip side, Jamie switching to summit after tunnelling me all game was certainly not Jamie making any attempt to protect summit D2... Though it was just plain weird, and could be a late bus attempt - Perhaps because everyone on Summit at that point (Bo_sox, Vecna, and Hamilton Brian) were town, and scum wanted to make sure at least one scum was bussing if he died?

The same could be said about kgray voting Jamie D1 when the momentum was on him (it took it to 4-4) before dropping off onto HB the second that became viable instead. Indeed, looking at VCA alone, a Summit/Jamie/Kgray team is not out of the realms of possibility.


Although I keep going back to rdrivera's post about how Summit & Bo will decided what happens D1 because they were vanity wagons, and his ignoring of Macca in that statement, because it really suggests rdrivera knew that Macca wasn't going to change vote, and it's bothering me a lot.

Macca already told he lives in Australia and he won't be around at EOD....

[rdrivera2005]

The thing that is bothering me most is that I don't have solid townreads.
The Bozo suggestion of Kgray/Summit/Jamiet (or me, to be honest with Bozo's thought) makes sense. A team with Bo and HR also makes sense (at least to me). Jamie and HR on the same team will require a great theater, but I already saw Jamiet do this with Xorxes. Macca is a complete wildcard and him missing all EODs doesn't help sorting him.

I think HR and Summit are good wagons for today as they can give us something to work with. But we need to consolidate early as I already said. Scum will likely buss in the start of the day, but they won't let a chance to win pass.

[Jamiet99uk]

The thing that is bothering me most is that I don't have solid townreads.
The Bozo suggestion of Kgray/Summit/Jamiet (or me, to be honest with Bozo's thought) makes sense. A team with Bo and HR also makes sense (at least to me). Jamie and HR on the same team will require a great theater, but I already saw Jamiet do this with Xorxes. Macca is a complete wildcard and him missing all EODs doesn't help sorting him.

I think HR and Summit are good wagons for today as they can give us something to work with. But we need to consolidate early as I already said. Scum will likely buss in the start of the day, but they won't let a chance to win pass.

I'm town. Help me to assure you. Ask me any questions you may have.

[Jamiet99uk]

Anyone?

[Jamiet99uk]

Scum are happy to let today peter out with as little activity as possible AND TOWN IS LETTING THEM.

[rdrivera2005]

[quote=Jamiet99uk post_id=173473 time=1598958244 user_id=137]
[quote=rdrivera2005 post_id=173471 time=1598956033 user_id=121]
The thing that is bothering me most is that I don't have solid townreads.
The Bozo suggestion of Kgray/Summit/Jamiet (or me, to be honest with Bozo's thought) makes sense. A team with Bo and HR also makes sense (at least to me). Jamie and HR on the same team will require a great theater, but I already saw Jamiet do this with Xorxes. Macca is a complete wildcard and him missing all EODs doesn't help sorting him.

I think HR and Summit are good wagons for today as they can give us something to work with. But we need to consolidate early as I already said. Scum will likely buss in the start of the day, but they won't let a chance to win pass.
[/quote]

I'm town. Help me to assure you. Ask me any questions you may have.
[/quote]

The biggest question I had for you, you already answer, that is why you choose to leave HR to summit on D2. And not knowing both alignments is hard to parse it as scummy or not.

But at least you are putting an effort. And so do HR, and this is what is giving me some doubts on my vote.

[rdrivera2005]

Scum are happy to let today peter out with as little activity as possible AND TOWN IS LETTING THEM.

What you suggest. I was digging D1 and D2 but can't find anything that wasn't yet addressed.

[Jamiet99uk]

Scum are happy to let today peter out with as little activity as possible AND TOWN IS LETTING THEM.

What you suggest. I was digging D1 and D2 but can't find anything that wasn't yet addressed.

Could you list all the remaining players, from your point of view, from MOST SCUM to MOST TOWN and lets discuss if we agree with your reads?

[kgray]

I will ##vote HR.

It's more a gut feeling, but last time I had this feeling I was right.

Scum only need one town to vote wrong to win, so I suggest we consolidate at least 10 minutes before EOD to avoid giving scum a chance to a last minute swap to win. Also, it will be important to have all townies around at EOD so it will be riskier to scum to do a last minute push.

Could you answer to point (2) in Kgray's big post just there?

I answered, she didn't like the answer. You posted, then Bo spamned the thread, I slipped all the Bo's posts and didn't see your post that was just before his. I jumped to next page and saw Kgray's post questioning Vecna on something I thought was more like a joke. As I also thought he was doing the same with me I call her picky. Don't know why she is getting back to this now, but I had already explained and you can either believe or not.

I got back to it because I realized that Jamie's post came before bo's shitposting, so I found it slightly less believable that you missed it. Also, when combined with your weak scumread of Jamie and you being the first to leave his wagon at EOD, I think it's worth keeping in mind.