Mafia 57 Matrix

[ghug]

Ah thank you Ghug. That would also make sense.

What do you think about my detailed case on HR, and my conclusions?

HR said the same thing. I scumread him too, but we gain little by clouding our judgements in righteous rage.

I tend to dislike ISOs in general, and I think some of the individual points are confbiasy (see above), but I generally agree that he saved emc twice and would like to see him flip.

[bo_sox48]

Do you scumread emc?

[bo_sox48]

Ghugh and Jamiet are looking worse to be since they can't seem to actual produce scum cases that aren't just louder and louder assertions of who they suppose to be scum.

Lol this is poetry

[e.m.c^42]

Sorry not more active in this. Phone and no wifi are real busters.
For what it’s worth:
Town: ghug, jamie
Lean: bunny, goldfinger
Null: Tom, therul, HR (although pay attention to the ISO and the exchange). Like bunny says, pay attention to what the Dead say.). Baboon, Bo. Fox castle.
Scum: Temasek, emc,

Lol this is almost exactly by post count and activity, isn't this. The more talkative the more towny, the less the more scummy.

Hmm

[e.m.c^42]

Forgive me if I find it slightly formulaic.

[ghug]

Forgive me if I find it slightly formulaic.

Given your (potentially) unique knowledge of your alignment. What do you make of the vote patterns on days where you were nearly killed?

[e.m.c^42]

Updated Town Reads Survey:

Bunny: Bismarck, bo, Ghug, Gold
Ghug: Bunny, bo, Gold, Jamie
Gold: Bunny, bo, ghug, Jamie
Hamilton: Bunny, Ghug, Gold, Jamie
Hellenic: Bunny, Hamilton Brian, therul, Tom Bombadil
Jamie: Bo_Sox 48, BismarckAlive, Ghug, Hamilton Brian
Therul: Bunny, EMC, Ghug, Jamie
Tom: Emc, Hellenic, Therul, "bunny or bo"
EMC: bo, ghug, HR, Tom, therul or Hamilton

Added, this is off the cuff and mostly gut. Maybe Foxc swap with Tom, but I'd have to reread.

[e.m.c^42]

Forgive me if I find it slightly formulaic.

Given your (potentially) unique knowledge of your alignment. What do you make of the vote patterns on days where you were nearly killed?

I think, I'm an incredibly easy (understandable to a point) person to placehold a vote on, so if you have troubles with coming up or finding scumreads it's easy to just plop a vote and not bother with much else.

Recent games I've become the default vote, lol, due to combination of policy, then bussing with policy excuse, then as tradition.

Granted my activity has also been more of concentrated two-three hours rather than on-off in the day, so it makes it seem like I'm lurking I suppose, so mild scumread I can get.

[ghug]

Forgive me if I find it slightly formulaic.

Given your (potentially) unique knowledge of your alignment. What do you make of the vote patterns on days where you were nearly killed?

I think, I'm an incredibly easy (understandable to a point) person to placehold a vote on, so if you have troubles with coming up or finding scumreads it's easy to just plop a vote and not bother with much else.

Recent games I've become the default vote, lol, due to combination of policy, then bussing with policy excuse, then as tradition.

Granted my activity has also been more of concentrated two-three hours rather than on-off in the day, so it makes it seem like I'm lurking I suppose, so mild scumread I can get.

Bad answer.

[ghug]

Being a major wagon on multiple days is great for a town player. You get a ton of perspective on what's going on, and it's much easier to read people's analyses of you because you know the truth. I'll give you another chance:
Given your (potentially) unique knowledge of your alignment. What do you make of the vote patterns on days where you were nearly killed?

[Hellenic Riot]

Alright, it's time for some EoD4 Action Analysis - Or rather, the absence of Action and why that was.


Going to start this from about 2 hours before EoD when bo turned up, and changed from voting rdrivera to voting Bismarck. At that time, the wagons were as follows:

Temasek (4): Bunny, Fox, Goldie, therul
HR (3): Jamie, Nanook, rdrivera
Bismarck (2): Bo & Tom
emc (2): Bismarck & Hamilton Brian
With me voting rdrivera, ghug voting Fox, Temasek voting therul, and emc voting Goldie

From this point onward:

Hamilton votes me (4-4 tie between Tem & myself)
Bunny votes Fox (4-3-2-2 between Me/Tem/Bismarck/Fox)
bo votes rdrivera (Same ratio, with rdrivera replacing Bismarck)
Bunny votes rdrivera (4-3-3 between Me/Tem/rdrivera)
Tom moves from Bismarck Fox (Fox reappears with 2)
therul moves from Temasek onto Bismarck (Only vote on Bismarck now)
Hamilton moves from me onto Temasek (3-3-3-2)
goldie moves from Temasek onto rdrivera (4-3-2-2 with rdrivera and me as top wagons)
emc moves from goldie onto Temasek (4-3-3-2)
ghug moves from Fox onto rdrivera, end of Fox wagon (5-3-3)
Bunny moves from rdrivera onto therul (4-3-3-2)

No further movement in the final seven minutes.

Final votes:
rdrivera (4) - Me, bo, goldie, ghug
Me (3) - Nanook, rdrivera, Jamie
Temasek (3) - Fox, Hamilton, emc
therul (2) - Temasek, Bunny

Vanity Wagons:
emc (1) - Bismarck
Foxcastle (1) - Tom
Bismarck (1) - therul

----

For an EoD this was incredibly sparse, so let's go into the actual posting, again starting from bo voting Bismarck with ~2 hours to go:

First up, we have goldie checking in. Townreads Bismarck, Soft townread on emc, prefers vote in myself/rdrivera (preferably rdrivera), says to look into Hamilton & therul more. Absolutely nothing about Temasek despite that being who his vote was on at this point.

Next up, I post townreads on Tom/Hamilton/therul/Bunny/ghug. With no traction at the time on rdrivera, I signal willingness to vote Temasek or Bismarck if forced to change

Tom comes in, townreads myself & emc, happy with wagons on Bismarck, emc, or rdrivera. Nothing about lead wagon Temasek.

Nanook's next, happy with either top wagon (me or Temasek), opposed to Bismarck or emc

Hamilton comes in, 'anchors a vote' on me, moving off Temasek to do so.

ghug suggests one of me/Tom are pocketing the other, Tom and I reply, no movement, I reiterate opposition to emc. ghug asks if anyone else will join him on Fox - Bunny obliges.

ghug defends me and suspects Tom is also town. Says Tem is a good wagon but Fox & therul being on it holds him back, says emc is good wagon too and that rdrivera is probably scum by PoE.

Bo senses momentum on rdrivera (even though I'm the only vote on him). I prod him into joining. Bunny questions it.

therul enters with ~45 minutes til EoD, says his vote on Temasek was an OMGUS.

Bunny changes from Fox onto rdrivera to make rdrivera wagon a contender. More minutes pass with fuck all happening, Tom changes to Fox (potentially putting Fox back into play) with half an hour to go. therul follows by changing onto Bismarck, now the only person that wagon.

ghug & Bunny question therul, ghug starts calling out people lurking the thread without posting (gold, Hamilton, emc). Hamilton changes from me onto Temasek.

Goldie posts again to defend emc, asks why scum wouldn't have bussed him yet. Catches up more and votes rdrivera whilst also signalling willingness to vote me.

Emc enters, says he wanted to make a case on Jamie and didn't, votes Tem & townreads me.

Goldie signals willingness to vote therul following Bunny & ghug's continued questioning of therul. I suggest that Tem & therul probably aren't scum together. Bunny concurs and suggests Tem is town. ghug votes rdrivera.

emc posts suggesting he could see rdrivera as scum but that he's probably town (pretty bad post, #2688 for reference). Less than ten minutes to go. rdrivera continues to scumread me.

More discussion between therul & Bunny, I defend therul, Bunny votes therul, rdrivera calls out emc for said bad post. Bunny's change to therul is the last vote of the day with seven minutes to go.

More discussion of therul between Bunny, emc, myself, rdrivera. Rdrivera and I agree bo's reasoning on us both being scum sucks, also scumreads goldie.

therul/emc/goldie/Bunny/rdrivera/myself keep talking right up until EoD, no further movement. rdrivera is lynched by one vote and flips town.

---------------------

Now for possible scenarios here:

Scenario A: Temasek is scum

Temasek himself is absent, so nothing to analyse from him. But who looks good and who looks bad?

Who openly defends him? Bunny is the only person to actually townread him, therul says the only reason he voted Tem before was an OMGUS.

Who *indirectly* defends him? Goldie enters with 2 hours to go and fails to give any reads on Tem despite having his vote on him. Tom also ignores Tem. ghug says Tem is a good vote but questions the people on him (Fox & Therul at the time).

Who openly votes him? Emc & Hamilton

Who signals willingness to vote him? Myself, Nanook, ghug

Could Temasek have been protected? Absolutely. Goldie, therul, and Bunny all take votes off of him. Tom ignores Tem as an option.

Analysis: If Temasek is scum, goldie & therul could both have been bussing originally and then changed later - both did so without decent justification. However - therul was around posting and made no switch off his vanity wagon on Bismarck onto rdrivera or myself to ensure Temasek was saved, so he looks very good. ghug's shadethrowing at the Temasek voters also looks bad. Would Bunny so openly defend an absent Tem if they were scum together? Unlikely. Could Hamilton and/or emc be bussing? Possibly, but Hamilton voting him turned it into a three-way tie that included Tem, so probably not in his case. Emc's vote was less important but kept the wagon as an option.

Conclusion: If Temasek is scum, Hamilton Brian is almost certainly town, emc looks good, and goldie looks especially bad. If Temasek was being protected, the fact he was still so close to being lynched suggests that there were multiple absent scum during the EoD, and therefore Bismarck, Jamie, or Nanook are also not looking great.

On the flip side: If Temasek is town, Hamilton & emc look pretty bad. Bunny looks very good for the defence, and ghug also looks good for his suggestion that the wagondrivers could've been scum.

---

Scenario B: I Am Scum

I'm not doing an analysis on this, get rekt.

---

Scenario C: Foxcastle is scum

Who openly defends him? Nobody

Who indirectly defends him? Nobody makes any particular comments toward the wagon, although everyone except ghug/Bunny/Tom post suspecting people other than Fox

Who openly votes him? ghug, Bunny, Tom

Who signals willingness to vote him? Nobody

Could Fox have been protected? Yes, by just about everyone

Analysis/Conclusion: Not a lot to delve into here given the fact almost nobody commented on Fox. ghug obviously looks very good for keeping the wagon going and being the sole voice on him. Does Bunny look good for voting him and then changing to rdrivera? Not especially, as he could have been hedging a bus in case Fox got wagoned, and likewise Tom's futile vote and disappearance doesn't rule out a bus hedge either. therul's failure to change votes is less conclusive on this one as Fox was not an option by the end when therul didn't turn up.

---

Scenario D: None of the major wagons was scum (rdrivera, Temasek, myself, maybe Fox)


Who looks good? The Scum Team, because the rest of us suck

Who looks particularly bad? therul's decision not to change votes suddenly looks much worse - if all the serious options were town, he had absolutely no incentive to change as scum in that scenario.

Analysis: Tom's vanity vote on Fox doesn't look great but as he wasn't here at the actual EoD that's probably NAI. People who cast the deciding votes on rdrivera and thus stuck their necks out a bit more look slightly better (goldie & ghug). Lazy unexplained voters look worse - emc in particular here, maybe Hamilton too

---

Scenario E: BismarckAlive is scum and got protected much earlier

Who openly defends him? Goldie & Nanook

Who indirectly defends him? N/A as he wasn't an option by the late stage

Who looks good? Bo for keeping him an option, therul's vanity vote looks decent.

Who signalled willingness to vote him? Myself, Tom

Who could have defended him? Pretty much anyone, given everything that happened after Bo's vote on him with 2 hours to go. Hamilton's change from emc onto me around is the vote that most looks like it could've been a defence, but given how many people were pushing or steering opposing wagons that's not especially conclusive either.

---

Scenario F: Multiple Scum Wagons existed (this time I will throw myself into the mix for completeness, alongside Tem and/or Foxcastle - though not Bismarck because of how early his wagon had died.

Who looks good? Anyone on said scum members most obviously. Tom Bombadil not parking his vote on rdrivera before going also looks particularly good, as does therul's non-switching. Bunny taking his vote off rdrivera and leaving the door open to other wagon also looks very good.

Who looks particularly bad? rdrivera voters, people who weren't around. Hamilton's unexplained vote flips to throw other wagons into the fray at different times (though if both Tem and I were scum then Hamilton looks fine).

Conclusion: I find it very unlikely that both Temasek & Foxcastle are scum together given the failure for there to be more consolidation on rdrivera or myself - the only way there could be multiple scum wagons would be a team made up almost entirely of people who weren't around (with Tem & Fox being the scum wagons and their teammates including Bismarck and possibly Jamie).

---

Overall conclusions:

If there was a scum protected yesterday, I find Temasek to be the only plausible option. If that is the case then at least one or maybe two scum had to not be around (And Bismarck is the Prime Candidate in the absentees imo). Given the lack of traction by the end I can't rule out emc's vote being a safe bus, but it seems unlikely. I'm therefore leaning toward none of the three major wagons being scum - though I am unsure on Fox.

With that in mind, therul & emc both look quite bad and are now my primary favoured votes. I find the dematerialisation of all pressure on Bismarck to be quite interesting, and combined with the fact that all signs point toward an inactive scumteam at EoD I'd also be very open to voting him.

[Hellenic Riot]

To summarise updated reads from that:

Tom is still town
ghug is still town
Bunny is still town

Hamilton is probably town still despite the poor EoD, but if Temasek is town then he does look *a lot* worse - likewise therul. My previous townreads on them have thus receded, but if Temasek is scum then they're entirely back on the town table.

[Hellenic Riot]

Now would also be a really good time for Temasek to actually turn up

[bo_sox48]

Given your (potentially) unique knowledge of your alignment. What do you make of the vote patterns on days where you were nearly killed?

I think, I'm an incredibly easy (understandable to a point) person to placehold a vote on, so if you have troubles with coming up or finding scumreads it's easy to just plop a vote and not bother with much else.

Recent games I've become the default vote, lol, due to combination of policy, then bussing with policy excuse, then as tradition.

Granted my activity has also been more of concentrated two-three hours rather than on-off in the day, so it makes it seem like I'm lurking I suppose, so mild scumread I can get.

Bad answer.

Bad answer and lazy answer.

[bo_sox48]

Emc, do you know many times you have said "hmm" this game?

[e.m.c^42]

Alright, time to explain townreads in a consolidated post, I suppose, since no one appears to remember them otherwise lol

First off, Foxc. Probably the main reason for mild townread on Foxc is that he didn't policy me, and didn't dive into spreadsheet hell and lurk, as ridiculous as that sounds.

Both of which are easy tendencies for him as scum - and the first actually gains gut townreads from a few iirc - and both of which he hasn't done so this game yet.

He also hasn't been particularly certain with any scumreads (or at least, certain enough to extensively push them), which iirc is also a town trait for him, since he's more certain of his reads as scum and is more aggressive about them.

[e.m.c^42]

Emc, do you know many times you have said "hmm" this game?

8, 9? ;p

[e.m.c^42]

Being a major wagon on multiple days is great for a town player. You get a ton of perspective on what's going on, and it's much easier to read people's analyses of you because you know the truth. I'll give you another chance:
Given your (potentially) unique knowledge of your alignment. What do you make of the vote patterns on days where you were nearly killed?

You have no idea how much I don't get VCA, lol
If you check peterbot,
I avoid it when possible, so. Sorry, can't really say? I am starting to think that Jamie is scum and not just undergoing life changes though, from his reactions.

[Tom Bombadil]

I admit, I’m basing nearly my entire townread of emc on one thing, but I really do not see any reason for *scum* emc to jump off of leading wagon town summit to town flash with 18 minutes to go D1. I don’t know why scum would potentially put themselves in a situation to face scrutiny after a town flip when both main wagons were town. Why not just stay on summit?

[ghug]

The good thing is that if we lose because we miskill emc, it's entirely his fault for being so terrible.