Mafia 57 Matrix

[goldfinger0303]

So you guys don't think *any* scum were on lone wagons at end of D1? Has meta changed that much?

[Nanook]

Why? What are you thinking?

Damo explicitly revealing something they know but we don't? Admitting they're not VT? I know I'm not explaining my thinking well nor am I successfully connecting dots. I'm still having a hard time understanding the wagon on Demon that Damo started and WHY that kill was necessary.

If it didn't cause any red flags for anyone else then I'll leave it for now.

We all know that too tho

[BunnyGo]

So you guys don't think *any* scum were on lone wagons at end of D1? Has meta changed that much?

I was unaware of that meta. Is it a recent meta?

[goldfinger0303]

Also, trying to wrap my head around Bunny's Bismark post.

Bunny's question is - why would Bismark want us to think worcej was faking RB? Bismark from my understanding is not completely new, so should know the convention around here.

A) If Bismark is town - I see no reason why. RB claims are partial townclears.

B) If Bismark is scum - scum know who they RB'd and everyone knows if it is successful or not. RBs serve as virus-hunting for scum. So if we ever see 1 kill at night it's either because 1) Scum RB hit the virus, 2) Scum NK hit the virus or 3) Virus withheld a kill. Denying town the benefit of a partial townclear is good way for scum to mitigate the risks of their strategy and sow doubt into the towniness of anyone who claims into the future.

I will also note since we're talking about it that nobody claimed RB last night. Surely they wouldn't have RB'd worcej again.

[goldfinger0303]

So you guys don't think *any* scum were on lone wagons at end of D1? Has meta changed that much?

I was unaware of that meta. Is it a recent meta?

I haven't exactly played recently...

[BunnyGo]

So you guys don't think *any* scum were on lone wagons at end of D1? Has meta changed that much?

Also he wasn't alone on the wagon when he last checked in (if I'm getting the timing correct), Damo was with him voting on bozo.

[ghug]

So you guys don't think *any* scum were on lone wagons at end of D1? Has meta changed that much?

First, you're saying both that and that it's because he's lurking. Is it the same thing in your mind? There are certainly others lurking.

Second, yes, it can be scummy to vote alone on a non-candidate, but it's not a hard and fast rule that it means one is scum, nor that there has to be scum doing so. Assuming that the odds of there being a lone-voting scum don't decrease when we narrow the pool of lone-voting scum is fallacious.

[BunnyGo]

Also, trying to wrap my head around Bunny's Bismark post.

Bunny's question is - why would Bismark want us to think worcej was faking RB? Bismark from my understanding is not completely new, so should know the convention around here.

A) If Bismark is town - I see no reason why. RB claims are partial townclears.

B) If Bismark is scum - scum know who they RB'd and everyone knows if it is successful or not. RBs serve as virus-hunting for scum. So if we ever see 1 kill at night it's either because 1) Scum RB hit the virus, 2) Scum NK hit the virus or 3) Virus withheld a kill. Denying town the benefit of a partial townclear is good way for scum to mitigate the risks of their strategy and sow doubt into the towniness of anyone who claims into the future.

I will also note since we're talking about it that nobody claimed RB last night. Surely they wouldn't have RB'd worcej again.

Ok, so Bismarck is somehow making a post that is ignorant of scum's ability to know who they RBd. He's saying "worcej lying may have fooled them to draw a NK." But he's also subtly suggesting that he knew that worcej was actually telling the truth.

[rdrivera2005]

You’re smarter than that statement.

What you mean with this? Two on the wagon flipped town. I know I am town. Bozo voted for Damo and was town. It only left Bismarck I think and he joined in the end. I am completely sure Damo wagon was totally town driven and you are pushing a narrative that doesn't make sense. Smart scum play was not get involved and let town push Damo lynch to get either a myslynch or a claim and not look bad and it's exactly what I think they did.

Now, explain me why you think scum me and/or scum Bismarck drove that wagon?

"until now half of it flipped town" is not like you. The fact that the town members on the wagon have flipped says little to nothing about the rest of the members.

You may be right that smart scum play is to stay away. But isn't it also smart scum play to push a non-VT to the masses? Is it possible to push that WITHOUT also joining the wagon?

The rest of the members are me and Bismarck. I know I am town and Bismarck just joined when the wagon was already at 3 and didn't talk much about Damo. It could be an opportunistic scum, but he didn't push the wagon so your logic about scum pushing Damo doesn't stand. I know I have a unique POV, but I don't understand why you can't acknowledge this.

[BunnyGo]

What you mean with this? Two on the wagon flipped town. I know I am town. Bozo voted for Damo and was town. It only left Bismarck I think and he joined in the end. I am completely sure Damo wagon was totally town driven and you are pushing a narrative that doesn't make sense. Smart scum play was not get involved and let town push Damo lynch to get either a myslynch or a claim and not look bad and it's exactly what I think they did.

Now, explain me why you think scum me and/or scum Bismarck drove that wagon?

"until now half of it flipped town" is not like you. The fact that the town members on the wagon have flipped says little to nothing about the rest of the members.

You may be right that smart scum play is to stay away. But isn't it also smart scum play to push a non-VT to the masses? Is it possible to push that WITHOUT also joining the wagon?

The rest of the members are me and Bismarck. I know I am town and Bismarck just joined when the wagon was already at 3 and didn't talk much about Damo. It could be an opportunistic scum, but he didn't push the wagon so your logic about scum pushing Damo doesn't stand. I know I have a unique POV, but I don't understand why you can't acknowledge this.

I can acknowledge your unique POV. But the statement "The others flipped town, so clearly scum weren't on the wagon" was not your strongest moment.

In fact, I'd say it makes Bismarck look even worse the dynamic you're suggesting. Silently moving to a wagon and hoping another town joins and looks like the bad guy is the BEST way a scum can push. It also explains why no other scum wanted to join the wagon after him; that'd be too much.

[damo666]

I think we should daykill a D1 Flash voter.

The chances of the top 2 wagons (both town) have collectively 9 town voters is pretty minimal imo. There are 6 left alive. The fact that I am alive persuades me to concentrate on the Flash voters rather than rdr and Bismarck.

I urge you to follow suit.

[goldfinger0303]

So you guys don't think *any* scum were on lone wagons at end of D1? Has meta changed that much?

First, you're saying both that and that it's because he's lurking. Is it the same thing in your mind? There are certainly others lurking.

Second, yes, it can be scummy to vote alone on a non-candidate, but it's not a hard and fast rule that it means one is scum, nor that there has to be scum doing so. Assuming that the odds of there being a lone-voting scum don't decrease when we narrow the pool of lone-voting scum is fallacious.

First, I understand they're different. It's an additive thing.

Second, I'm aware its not a hard and fast rule, but there's usually at least one, right? I'm looking back through other games to see.

• M21 doesn't quite count because the lynch target was the one on a dead wagon
• M22 had teacon on a dead wagon
• M23 had Moscowfleet on a lone wagon
• M24 had peterlund on a lone wagon
• M25 rdrivera on a lone wagon
• M26 Deathllama was on a dead wagon
• M27 xorxes and Jamiet both on lone wagons.

So more often than not, there's a lone wagon with scum on it

[BunnyGo]

So you guys don't think *any* scum were on lone wagons at end of D1? Has meta changed that much?

First, you're saying both that and that it's because he's lurking. Is it the same thing in your mind? There are certainly others lurking.

Second, yes, it can be scummy to vote alone on a non-candidate, but it's not a hard and fast rule that it means one is scum, nor that there has to be scum doing so. Assuming that the odds of there being a lone-voting scum don't decrease when we narrow the pool of lone-voting scum is fallacious.

First, I understand they're different. It's an additive thing.

Second, I'm aware its not a hard and fast rule, but there's usually at least one, right? I'm looking back through other games to see.

• M21 doesn't quite count because the gentle reminder target was the one on a dead wagon
• M22 had teacon on a dead wagon
• M23 had Moscowfleet on a lone wagon
• M24 had peterlund on a lone wagon
• M25 rdrivera on a lone wagon
• M26 Deathllama was on a dead wagon
• M27 xorxes and Jamiet both on lone wagons.

So more often than not, there's a lone wagon with scum on it

[BunnyGo]

I think we should daykill a D1 Flash voter.

The chances of the top 2 wagons (both town) have collectively 9 town voters is pretty minimal imo. There are 6 left alive. The fact that I am alive persuades me to concentrate on the Flash voters rather than rdr and Bismarck.

I urge you to follow suit.

What do you mean "top 2 wagons". Near as I can see there are two wagons tied for second.

How does your continued existence in this mortal coil make you think rdr and Bismarck are both town?

[BunnyGo]

Let me propose another thought experiment for people looking back at D1 to consider:

If none of the wagons were scum, then scum didn't need to *do* anything to save a teammate. They could have been anywhere and everywhere.

For example, I currently townread all three of my voters from that day. If EMC were scum, wouldn't someone expect an extra push on me by scum to save him? (feel free to sub any of the other confirmed town wagons for me...the statement is still largely true)

[BunnyGo]

Anyone care to claim being RBd on N2?

[Hamilton Brian]

@HB, why were a couple of pointed questions enough to get you to figure damo out when people have been talking openly about Millers and scans since it happened?

Because there is legitimately a few things within this scenario that fly over my head; it takes quite a bit of effort. Think about it like teaching. Before independent mastery of a skill, there has to be modeled, shared, and guided instruction to help build the skill. I'm in the modeled and guided phase.

[Hamilton Brian]

@Hamilton did you read this post?

I remember reading the piece where jamie wrote that they thought EMC was scum.

[Tom Bombadil]

I think we should daykill a D1 Flash voter.

The chances of the top 2 wagons (both town) have collectively 9 town voters is pretty minimal imo. There are 6 left alive. The fact that I am alive persuades me to concentrate on the Flash voters rather than rdr and Bismarck.

I urge you to follow suit.

Well myself and emc went from summit to flash, which we know was town to town.

The other flash vote was summit himself.

The ones that didn't are goldfinger going from Foxcastle to flash, and ghug going from golfinger to brielfy summit to flash.

If there is scum, it could be here, and could be busing. But I don't really feel super strong on that unfortunately.

[Tom Bombadil]

Looking at the wagons, I could see a world where rdr was scum and protected. His wagon dissipated pretty quickly with about 5 hours left to go.

Could be scum building other wagons to get him out of the danger zone.