Mafia 57 Matrix

[bozotheclown]

I also don't like how we got distracted from the discussion that was starting.

I do want to see if there's some consensus on the town-3rd party alliance plan. Then I'm sure our comrades in the Neb can make arrangements in the virus QT for some sort of handshake agreement. This plan requires a lot of trust from the 3rd party that town won't just use the free anti-virus killer on them.

What are your thoughts?

Mainly that no one has read the game setup deeply and that we'll pitter away a day or two, lynch some newbies and lurkers until a miracle stroke of luck happens and the strong core that remains lead us to town victory.

Ya know, the usual way it always goes.

The last time I played it *did* take a Herculean effort by xorxes to break everyone away from the mold, and was almost lynched because of it. So, my thoughts are just we start querying individuals on it. After all we don't need everyone to agree - just Morpheus and Trinity.

According to the bot, the last game you played was M1009. Is this the game you were referring to?

[goldfinger0303]

According to the bot, the last game you played was M1009. Is this the game you were referring to?

Whichever was the one xorxes broke on D1 by getting everyone to massclaim.

[Nanook]

I forgot how much I hate data tabulation

Maybe I'll finish this by D3 and have something useful

Maybe

[BismarckAlive]

I also don't like how we got distracted from the discussion that was starting.

I do want to see if there's some consensus on the town-3rd party alliance plan. Then I'm sure our comrades in the Neb can make arrangements in the virus QT for some sort of handshake agreement. This plan requires a lot of trust from the 3rd party that town won't just use the free anti-virus killer on them.

What are your thoughts?

Mainly that no one has read the game setup deeply and that we'll pitter away a day or two, lynch some newbies and lurkers until a miracle stroke of luck happens and the strong core that remains lead us to town victory.

Ya know, the usual way it always goes.

The last time I played it *did* take a Herculean effort by xorxes to break everyone away from the mold, and was almost lynched because of it. So, my thoughts are just we start querying individuals on it. After all we don't need everyone to agree - just Morpheus and Trinity.

I think you are wrong in assuming "no one has read the game setup deeply ". Normally, that is the first thing I do.

I have been thinking about the Town / Mafia motivations in their dealings with 3P, and what 3P might be thinking too. Here I repost BunnyGo's thoughts on this:

[#138 Post by BunnyGo » Tue Jul 07, 2020 12:37 pm

goldfinger0303 wrote: ↑Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:27 am
@Bunny - what do you say to the idea that the people in the Neb should deliberately red pill the 3rd party either tonight or tomorrow night. The 3rd party then acts as a town-directed NK, under threat of the anti-virus going off. Maf will have to direct all their efforts at finding the third party. Since town doesn't lose when the third party wins - and they have to be lynched to win - why not co-opt them into an infinite, unkillable vig shot?
If we're strictly thinking about "win conditions" I don't see why town and 3P would fight each other. 3P cannot advance without town, and town has no reason to kill 3P (if they recruit, then 3P is another way the scum fail their NK and buy town and 3P both more time). In addition, 3P will want to draw the NK, which is to the town's benefit. 3P also does not want to accelerate the deaths (I don't think), because that's not to their wincon; they need time to achieve their goals.

Since 3P can act as a spy on the scum (potentially), and needs town, and has the possibility of mutual victory. I see little reason for town not to help them (and vice versa) at first.

(this is not the only answer, but it is the easiest one...and in webdip mafia playing easy and solid is usually the winning play)

The only part where their relationship will get rocky is at the end:

3P will need a mislynch right when town may not be able to afford it. This is yet another reason 3P should assist town; it makes it more likely town can afford the mislynch.

tldr; the easiest solid way to play to win conditions is to work together. Town should recruit 3P, and 3P should accept and assist town.]

I agree with BunnyGo and goldfinger0303: the NEB should work hard to recruit the 3P as early as possible.

[ghug]

I think I actually kind of disagree with that point.

I think it's in the interests of town and third party to get the third party recruited. I also think it's in the interests of town to keep the ship purely town-occupied, and combined with the utter crapshoot that is trying to identify someone with a novel win condition and no teammates, it's better to just target strong townreads than risk accidentally hitting mafia.

That said, it's in the third party's best interests to bleed town right now, both because they need us to have room to lynch them down the line, and because that's what'll get them shipped.

[goldfinger0303]

Bismark, my comment was more a generality about how WebDip mafia games go than specifically damning anyone in particular.

But now I'm going to damn someone in particular.

@ghug - it's not a crapshoot. Neb and 3rd party can talk in their own QT *right now* if I'm reading the rules correctly. Neb crew can just say "Hey Virus, say "potato" in your next post" and boom, crapshoot over. 100% confirmation.

Also, this

That said, it's in the third party's best interests to bleed town right now, both because they need us to have room to lynch them down the line, and because that's what'll get them shipped.

This makes no sense. If they need room to be lynched down the line, shouldn't they *not* bleed town? Why would town trust the third party if they've been offing us? If the third party is to reveal themselves to the Neb crew and not rely on sneaking aboard, their single biggest concern is the anti-virus death dagger the crew controls. In my mind, that is the only hurdle we, collectively, have to address here.

[damo666]

It’s a (admittedly somewhat rough) rough meta analysis tool yeah?

If you don’t get it I’ll show you what I mean when I can use my laptop to compile some stuff tonight.

I’m genuinely excited, tho tbf it’s likely somewhat less useful if you guys are aware of what you have

Oh guys! We got a spreadsheet coming!! Or a neural net maybe? Maybe Nanook is fancy.

I am but a simple spreadsheeter

Better that than a sheet spreader....

[Jamiet99uk]

Good morning. I see six pages to catch up on. Bear with me for 20 minutes.

[Jamiet99uk]

Welcome back, ghug!

##VOTE ghug

Who are you?

I have found that pretending to forget players is scum indicative.

##VOTE ghug

Do you think that Ghug actually forgot who Flash is?

What was your nickname for Ghug in high school, Bozo? Genuine question?

[Jamiet99uk]

Ooh I see it is

Do you guys know how useful this bot is or...?

yes

Worcej did this already.

It is tiresome.

[Jamiet99uk]

Is Vecna Phil Hellmuth?

What?

Phil Hellmuth is a professional poker player and semi-professional asshole.

[Jamiet99uk]

Live blogging*

Bunny, what have you heard about me?

Nanook, does everyone here know who you are? Do you know any/many/most of the players? How do you think these things will impact your play?

Just that you’re well respected as a player. No details spring to mind.

You have less information than you think you do.

Nobody respects Ghug.

[Jamiet99uk]

Live blogging*

Bunny, what have you heard about me?

Nanook, does everyone here know who you are? Do you know any/many/most of the players? How do you think these things will impact your play?

Just that you’re well respected as a player. No details spring to mind.

Nobody respects me. Try again.

Damn, he went there already.

[Jamiet99uk]

Goldie's scum.

Could you expand on this analysis?

[Jamiet99uk]

@Bunny - what do you say to the idea that the people in the Neb should deliberately red pill the 3rd party either tonight or tomorrow night. The 3rd party then acts as a town-directed NK, under threat of the anti-virus going off. Maf will have to direct all their efforts at finding the third party. Since town doesn't lose when the third party wins - and they have to be lynched to win - why not co-opt them into an infinite, unkillable vig shot?

You say this as if the people on the ship know who the Virus is.

They don't.

What makes you assume the ship QT members can identify the Virus within the first two nights?

This seems a very odd post to me.

[damo666]

@Bunny - what do you say to the idea that the people in the Neb should deliberately red pill the 3rd party either tonight or tomorrow night. The 3rd party then acts as a town-directed NK, under threat of the anti-virus going off. Maf will have to direct all their efforts at finding the third party. Since town doesn't lose when the third party wins - and they have to be lynched to win - why not co-opt them into an infinite, unkillable vig shot?

You say this as if the people on the ship know who the Virus is.

They don't.

What makes you assume the ship QT members can identify the Virus within the first two nights?

This seems a very odd post to me.

They can speak and therefore set up an identifying mechanic. I am missing Xorxes.

[Jamiet99uk]

@Bunny - what do you say to the idea that the people in the Neb should deliberately red pill the 3rd party either tonight or tomorrow night. The 3rd party then acts as a town-directed NK, under threat of the anti-virus going off. Maf will have to direct all their efforts at finding the third party. Since town doesn't lose when the third party wins - and they have to be lynched to win - why not co-opt them into an infinite, unkillable vig shot?

You say this as if the people on the ship know who the Virus is.

They don't.

What makes you assume the ship QT members can identify the Virus within the first two nights?

This seems a very odd post to me.

They can speak and therefore set up an identifying mechanic. I am missing Xorxes.

Ahhhh. This:

"In the ship QT is a link to another quicktopic the Virus has access to, where it can communicate anonymously. Nebuchadnezzar players may post in here as well, and may choose to do so anonymously."

Gotcha.

Damn this setup is complicated, Flum.

[Jamiet99uk]

So we're discussing whether the best strategy for Town is to ally with the Virus, help them to win, whilst also using the Virus to take shots at scum?

Sounds interesting.

[damo666]

So we're discussing whether the best strategy for Town is to ally with the Virus, help them to win, whilst also using the Virus to take shots at scum?

Sounds interesting.

It seems a no lose from tpov but 3p would be at constant risk of anti virus. Why would they e pose themselves thus? Maybe if they thought it was their only chance of recruitment. So let's hope we have a 3p lacking in confidence.

[BismarckAlive]

So we're discussing whether the best strategy for Town is to ally with the Virus, help them to win, whilst also using the Virus to take shots at scum?

Sounds interesting.

Yes, that is the idea. Town doesn't care if / when Virus attains their win conditions, as long as Virus helps Town get Scum significantly lower than the current 5...