M1011 - Revenge of the Space Mutants - Game Thread

[bozotheclown]

I'm 100% ok with voting damo or Chaqa.

I think Chaqa's move makes more sense if damo is town. If Chaqa and damo are both scum, Chaqa's move just sets up both up them to be lynched. If damo is town and they get him lynched first, mafia wins. Vecna and kgray kept pushing not to lynch damo today, either one, or both, could be scum knowing damo would flip town, while also setting up a possible move by Chaqa to tie. Chaqa would have to be the JOAT in this case.

I don’t think so. I think if damo is town, they just lynch damo. Much of the scumreads on Chaqa were based on damo being scum. If damo was town and he flipped I think it would take heat off of Chaqa

That would make it 4-3 with damo out. They are better off at 5-3 with a town damo still in the game. However, if damo is scum, it is 5-3 with damo and Chaqa almost certainly the next 2 lynches. If damo is mafia, I think the mafia would just bus damo, even if he is the JOAT.

[Chaqa]

I don't know why anyone thinks if I were scum with damo I wouldn't have bussed his ass one of the last two days. I felt like the absolute dead EoD meant scum were about to win by mislynching damo.

I don't know who scum is but it isn't me.

[bozotheclown]

I am updating my guess.

scum team prediction:
BunnyGo: damo, Vecna, kgray
bozo: Chaqa, Vecna, BunnyGo

I could see Chaq instead of vecna in my guess. But let me ask you this:

Read Damo. Compare this to what he was posting in our recent game while asking me to forfeit (something he did as soon as I was dead despite my begging him not to). It’s the same. He’s bored. He’s done. He’s trolling. Any read that doesn’t include Damo is wrong.

Hmm. Forgot to ask anything. Thoughts comparing those two Damos?

If damo is scum, he does not have any reason to give up this game, as scum have the advantage. In M55, I think he felt that he did not have a chance of winning when he gave up. This game he would be more likely to give up as town if he thought he was about to be mislynched for a mafia win.

[BunnyGo]

I could see Chaq instead of vecna in my guess. But let me ask you this:

Read Damo. Compare this to what he was posting in our recent game while asking me to forfeit (something he did as soon as I was dead despite my begging him not to). It’s the same. He’s bored. He’s done. He’s trolling. Any read that doesn’t include Damo is wrong.

Hmm. Forgot to ask anything. Thoughts comparing those two Damos?

If damo is scum, he does not have any reason to give up this game, as scum have the advantage. In M55, I think he felt that he did not have a chance of winning when he gave up. This game he would be more likely to give up as town if he thought he was about to be mislynched for a mafia win.

Town Damo still tries to solve when that happens. What about M54 when he was constantly on the chopping block. He was wrong about xorxes, but he was active and hunting.

[kgray]

If damo is the JOAT, the mafia were about to see the JOAT lynched and would be down 5-2 D4. Chaqa could have taken the chance to save damo there, hoping someone would follow him to BunnyGo.

I think this is likely. Scum!Chaqa would have known the double vote was in play, and that him switching would at least tie the vote. It's certainly possible that Chaqa was hoping for someone to follow him to Bunny.

However, Chaqa's vote called for Tom/bozo/food to make the choice to switch or not. But, unless bozo or food switched their settings to "appear away," neither was online at EOD and Tom, who was around, didn't seem very convinced of my neph/bunny case. Scum!Chaqa probably figured that nobody else would switch to Bunny and he would tie the vote rather than lynch Bunny, so I think a Chaqa/damo/Bunny scumteam makes sense.

[kgray]

If damo is the JOAT, the mafia were about to see the JOAT lynched and would be down 5-2 D4. Chaqa could have taken the chance to save damo there, hoping someone would follow him to BunnyGo.

The only reason to activate JOAT extra vote yesterday was “use it or lose it”. Damo must be JOAT.

Now, I actually think kgray is scummy, but Chaq late move is towny. He couldn’t know he was tying the vote.

And anyone thinking I’m playing like my scum game instead of sitting back and trying to listen sucks at this game.

I'm sorry, what? If Chaqa is scum he definitely would have known he was tying the vote. Why do you think he "couldn't" have known? Do you know for a fact that Chaqa is town?

[bozotheclown]

Hmm. Forgot to ask anything. Thoughts comparing those two Damos?

If damo is scum, he does not have any reason to give up this game, as scum have the advantage. In M55, I think he felt that he did not have a chance of winning when he gave up. This game he would be more likely to give up as town if he thought he was about to be mislynched for a mafia win.

Town Damo still tries to solve when that happens. What about M54 when he was constantly on the chopping block. He was wrong about xorxes, but he was active and hunting.

OK, damo was more active in M54. I still want to see Chaqa flip first. I would be surprised if damo is scum and Chaqa is town. If Chaqa is the JOAT, I think that would point to damo being town. If Chaqa is scum but not the JOAT, damo is probably the JOAT.

[kgray]

inb4 I'm scum for causing a tie.

The way EoD was going, with it being so quiet and the complete disregard made me think damo could be town, and kgray's Neph/Bunny theory makes sense to me.

I need to reread.

So you are claiming either kgray or Vecna activated double vote? But why? I don't get it . They are toying with us.

Tell me kgray: did you not see his trolling posts YESTERDAY?! Do you see them today?

I did not see any posts from damo yesterday that I thought were trolling, no. But yeah, the idea that Vecna or I would activate the double vote and use it to vote for damo makes absolutely no sense and I doubt anyone would honestly believe that. I am fairly confident that either damo or Chaqa is the JOAT.

[kgray]

So you are claiming either kgray or Vecna activated double vote? But why? I don't get it . They are toying with us.

Tell me kgray: did you not see his trolling posts YESTERDAY?! Do you see them today?

I did not see any posts from damo yesterday that I thought were trolling, no. But yeah, the idea that Vecna or I would activate the double vote and use it to vote for damo makes absolutely no sense and I doubt anyone would honestly believe that. I am fairly confident that either damo or Chaqa is the JOAT.

*use it to save damo*

[kgray]

If damo is the JOAT, the mafia were about to see the JOAT lynched and would be down 5-2 D4. Chaqa could have taken the chance to save damo there, hoping someone would follow him to BunnyGo.

The only reason to activate JOAT extra vote yesterday was “use it or lose it”. Damo must be JOAT.

Now, I actually think kgray is scummy, but Chaq late move is towny. He couldn’t know he was tying the vote.

And anyone thinking I’m playing like my scum game instead of sitting back and trying to listen sucks at this game.

It is possible the JOAT is someone who did not realize they should save the double vote until it was too late. Chaqa never seemed clear on the optimal use of the double vote.

That would also imply that none of the scumteam understood the optimal use of the double vote. Surely the JOAT wouldn't be going off on their own without consulting their team.

[bozotheclown]

Remember everyone, because of the double-vote we only have one mislynch left.

Today it's 8 vs 3(+1).

If we mislynch and nighkill is successful, tomorrow is 6 vs 3(+1). That's mylo.

@xorx - I hadn't questioned it until I was re-reading you a bit, but how is this MYLO tomorrow (assuming a mislynch happens today)?

6 v 3(+1) would mean with a mislynch it's down to 4v3 the following day. The 6v3 day is not MYLO in any means. Or am I misunderstanding?

This was late in D2, when xorxes was trying to explain to the mafia how best to use their double vote, and Chaqa indicated he did not follow what xorxes was saying yet. Chaqa may have already activated the double vote at that point, especially if his teammates were not around to discuss it in mafia chat, such as if Nephthys and Vecna were his partners.

[kgray]

That's a very unfortunate result.

Off the cuff I struggle to see damo as the JOAT who fired the double suboptimally. The guy loves prime numbers and other types of numbers I've never even heard of. Why would he not be able to math this out? Why would damo as JOAT misuse the real value of that skill? There would have been no way to know they could achieve a tie D3, and using the double only to be lynched would be irrelevant; it would be better to fight like hell to get to D4 and hang on to it.

It also kind of assumes at least 2 of the 4 on Bunny are scum, and I'm not sure about that yet.

It seems more likely someone derped it up but saw an opportunity to tie and deny us info.

Okay, that makes sense too. I'm assuming the scum who saw the opportunity to tie was Chaqa, right?

If that's the case, and damo is town, then scum!Chaqa caused (or allowed) a tie twice, saving town!damo both times. Do you think it makes sense for scum to want to deny us info so badly that they'll sacrifice a mislynch? Maybe D1 it makes sense, but now? Even though it wasn't actually mylo, scum need mislynches at this point, especially since they'd have missed out on one D1 if it were TvT.

[bozotheclown]

The only reason to activate JOAT extra vote yesterday was “use it or lose it”. Damo must be JOAT.

Now, I actually think kgray is scummy, but Chaq late move is towny. He couldn’t know he was tying the vote.

And anyone thinking I’m playing like my scum game instead of sitting back and trying to listen sucks at this game.

It is possible the JOAT is someone who did not realize they should save the double vote until it was too late. Chaqa never seemed clear on the optimal use of the double vote.

That would also imply that none of the scumteam understood the optimal use of the double vote. Surely the JOAT wouldn't be going off on their own without consulting their team.

See previous post.

[bozotheclown]

That's a very unfortunate result.

Off the cuff I struggle to see damo as the JOAT who fired the double suboptimally. The guy loves prime numbers and other types of numbers I've never even heard of. Why would he not be able to math this out? Why would damo as JOAT misuse the real value of that skill? There would have been no way to know they could achieve a tie D3, and using the double only to be lynched would be irrelevant; it would be better to fight like hell to get to D4 and hang on to it.

It also kind of assumes at least 2 of the 4 on Bunny are scum, and I'm not sure about that yet.

It seems more likely someone derped it up but saw an opportunity to tie and deny us info.

Okay, that makes sense too. I'm assuming the scum who saw the opportunity to tie was Chaqa, right?

If that's the case, and damo is town, then scum!Chaqa caused (or allowed) a tie twice, saving town!damo both times. Do you think it makes sense for scum to want to deny us info so badly that they'll sacrifice a mislynch? Maybe D1 it makes sense, but now? Even though it wasn't actually mylo, scum need mislynches at this point, especially since they'd have missed out on one D1 if it were TvT.

If they lynched a town damo, it would be lylo. With a no lynch, it is mylo, with damo set up for a game winning mislynch if he is town.

[kgray]

If Chaqa is the JOAT and damo is town, switching to BunnyGo at the last minute would have set up damo for a game winning mislynch D4.

This is plausible. THough why would he have activated the double vote?

Maybe Vecna and Chaqa set it up in the last hour of D3, and the scum team is Vecna, Chaqa, and BunnyGo.

Or Chaqa could be the goon/tough guy and Vecna JOAT.

[bozotheclown]

By using the double vote to tie D3, the mafia achieved the same result as saving it for D4, keeping town from having any more mislynches. However, it would not have tied if not for Chaqa, so I think Chaqa is implicated whether he is the JOAT or not.

[kgray]

That's a very unfortunate result.

Off the cuff I struggle to see damo as the JOAT who fired the double suboptimally. The guy loves prime numbers and other types of numbers I've never even heard of. Why would he not be able to math this out? Why would damo as JOAT misuse the real value of that skill? There would have been no way to know they could achieve a tie D3, and using the double only to be lynched would be irrelevant; it would be better to fight like hell to get to D4 and hang on to it.

It also kind of assumes at least 2 of the 4 on Bunny are scum, and I'm not sure about that yet.

It seems more likely someone derped it up but saw an opportunity to tie and deny us info.

Okay, that makes sense too. I'm assuming the scum who saw the opportunity to tie was Chaqa, right?

If that's the case, and damo is town, then scum!Chaqa caused (or allowed) a tie twice, saving town!damo both times. Do you think it makes sense for scum to want to deny us info so badly that they'll sacrifice a mislynch? Maybe D1 it makes sense, but now? Even though it wasn't actually mylo, scum need mislynches at this point, especially since they'd have missed out on one D1 if it were TvT.

If they lynched a town damo, it would be lylo. With a no lynch, it is mylo, with damo set up for a game winning mislynch if he is town.

Oh.... Hmm. So scum!Chaqa would want to save damo no matter damo's alignment.

##vote Chaqa

[kgray]

By using the double vote to tie D3, the mafia achieved the same result as saving it for D4, keeping town from having any more mislynches. However, it would not have tied if not for Chaqa, so I think Chaqa is implicated whether he is the JOAT or not.

Yeah I follow this now. I think you're right.

[kgray]

Hmm. Forgot to ask anything. Thoughts comparing those two Damos?

If damo is scum, he does not have any reason to give up this game, as scum have the advantage. In M55, I think he felt that he did not have a chance of winning when he gave up. This game he would be more likely to give up as town if he thought he was about to be mislynched for a mafia win.

Town Damo still tries to solve when that happens. What about M54 when he was constantly on the chopping block. He was wrong about xorxes, but he was active and hunting.

That's a good point. I don't think it's 100% comparable, because damo in M54 was town who'd just come out of a tied vote at mylo and therefore had very good reason to think I was scum. But you're definitely right that he doesn't seem nearly as invested here, regardless of how much information he has.

[Vecna]

By using the double vote to tie D3, the mafia achieved the same result as saving it for D4, keeping town from having any more mislynches. However, it would not have tied if not for Chaqa, so I think Chaqa is implicated whether he is the JOAT or not.

Yeah I follow this now. I think you're right.

Except on day3 they were not guaranteed to make us lose a mislynch, since town still had the larger numbers. It was still likely to be a waste on D3 and a guaranteed win on D4 if they managed to tie or mislynch town on D3 without it.