I'm pretty sure that was modelling and mitigation.
Suppression, where there is no human-to-human transmission (globally), does not result in a bounce back.
#161 Post by orathaic » Thu Mar 26, 2020 8:48 pm
I'm pretty sure that was modelling and mitigation.
#162 Post by Octavious » Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:37 pm
#163 Post by orathaic » Fri Mar 27, 2020 12:38 am
#164 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 27, 2020 8:31 am
This, you mean? That's not what the study says. With suppression it is modelled to come back once suppression methods are lifted. It is also far too early to call the Chinese efforts a success, even if you assume that they've broken the habit of a lifetime and are actually being honest about their figures for once. Suppression is not the minimum disruption method, but the maximum disruption method. The benefits of which are simply that more lives are hoped to be saved whilst we wait for a vaccine to accelerate natural levels of immunity.orathaic wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:33 amBut if we can replicate China's success, and then redistribute expertise and equipment to the virus hot spots, then hopefully we can delay with a minimum of disruption. (compared to the mitigation strategy, where you get ~9 months of repeated interventions, spending 6 of those 9 months in lockdown...)
#165 Post by orathaic » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:46 am
#166 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:49 am
#167 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:51 am
#169 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:36 pm
#170 Post by Jamiet99uk » Fri Mar 27, 2020 1:56 pm
It is a crisis being made worse by the inept handling and initial failure to act of Boris and his cabinet, as the Lancet report clearly describes.
#171 Post by orathaic » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:37 pm
That seems clear as day to me, Ora. Suppression is battening down the hatches until a medical treatment, probably in the form of a vaccine, is brought into play. There is no suggestion of suppression killing off the virus.
#172 Post by flash2015 » Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:59 pm
#173 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:55 am
Hopefully Trump will catch the virus himself.flash2015 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 5:59 pmIn other news, Trump still appears to not be taking the virus seriously. Claims in an interview with Hannity that NY projections for ventilator requirements are wrong:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/2 ... rus-151311
I hope they are wrong. I hope it doesn't get as bad as projected. But Trump appears to be basing his opposition to these estimates on a "hunch". This is not how you should work in a crisis like this, especially with potentially tens of thousands of lives at stake in NYC (kind of important to me as I live here and my wife has respiratory issues).
He also suggested in a Fox interview that what Governors get from the Federal Government depends on how nice they are to him. That is not how this works. Unfortunately we are likely to get through this crisis not because of anything Trump has done but in spite of his attempts to derail the response. Thankfully he does have at least a few sane people around him (like Fauci) and while I don't like Pence he largely appears to be saying the right things.
#175 Post by orathaic » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:21 am
#176 Post by orathaic » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:28 am
The attorney general of Texas on Friday issued a legal opinion deeming gun stores "essential services" during the pandemic
#177 Post by Jamiet99uk » Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:00 pm
I don't care if Donald Trump lives or dies and honestly have a preference for the latter. If you think that makes me a bad person, I don't care. He is a horrible, nasty, obnoxious man whose decisions in power have already harmed countless people, for real. The virus would be doing humanity a favour if it removes him not only from office but life.
#178 Post by flash2015 » Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:00 pm
#179 Post by Octavious » Sun Mar 29, 2020 8:42 pm
#180 Post by Jamiet99uk » Tue Mar 31, 2020 8:28 pm
Users browsing this forum: No registered users