M54: Not a Carrot Conspiracy

[Foxcastle]

An "easy" anchor vote that only matters because it was on you. Are your blinders already on?

Nobody else is going to defend me, so yeah it matters that it's me.

I think most of us didn't respond because the question was asked to you.

I was not suggesting anyone else should answer worcej's (or Bo's) specific question on my behalf, I was making the point to Bo that no one else was going to pushback on worcej's vote.

It took me a minute to figure out what you were saying in your post. Since you edited out the question I posed to Bo, I'll ask it of you also, Bunny: do you think worecej's behavior (anchoring a vote, coming back and presumably seeing that the situation has changed, not changing his vote) is worth noting?

[damo666]

Hey guys, slow to log in. Luckily I'm a vanilla village so I don't have to concoct an elaborate story.

If you really are a VT, it is generally not a good idea to claim it because it helps the mafia identify the town PRs.

No more vt claims please. You'll get me killed.

[damo666]

##vote Tem

Applying more pressure.

Worcej and Vecna are on my suspicious list.

[BunnyGo]

Nobody else is going to defend me, so yeah it matters that it's me.

I think most of us didn't respond because the question was asked to you.

I was not suggesting anyone else should answer worcej's (or Bo's) specific question on my behalf, I was making the point to Bo that no one else was going to pushback on worcej's vote.

It took me a minute to figure out what you were saying in your post. Since you edited out the question I posed to Bo, I'll ask it of you also, Bunny: do you think worecej's behavior (anchoring a vote, coming back and presumably seeing that the situation has changed, not changing his vote) is worth noting?

I think anchoring a vote D1 is a "whatever" move. It's annoying, but probably NAI. I think not knowing when the day ends in the same post that you insist you know when the day ends is a little weirder. I think his posts have had near zero content per post; and that's the most worrying.

[Foxcastle]

I think most of us didn't respond because the question was asked to you.

I was not suggesting anyone else should answer worcej's (or Bo's) specific question on my behalf, I was making the point to Bo that no one else was going to pushback on worcej's vote.

It took me a minute to figure out what you were saying in your post. Since you edited out the question I posed to Bo, I'll ask it of you also, Bunny: do you think worecej's behavior (anchoring a vote, coming back and presumably seeing that the situation has changed, not changing his vote) is worth noting?

I think anchoring a vote D1 is a "whatever" move. It's annoying, but probably NAI. I think not knowing when the day ends in the same post that you insist you know when the day ends is a little weirder. I think his posts have had near zero content per post; and that's the most worrying.

I'm not complaining about the initial vote. That's not a problem. The problem is letting it sit even when there are better places to put it later. It smacks of trying to see what you can get away with (not even getting away with a mislynch, just getting away with not doing anything to draw attention, not doing anything that's helpful VCA later, etc).

[BunnyGo]

Nobody else is going to defend me, so yeah it matters that it's me.

I think most of us didn't respond because the question was asked to you.

I was not suggesting anyone else should answer worcej's (or Bo's) specific question on my behalf, I was making the point to Bo that no one else was going to pushback on worcej's vote.

It took me a minute to figure out what you were saying in your post. Since you edited out the question I posed to Bo, I'll ask it of you also, Bunny: do you think worecej's behavior (anchoring a vote, coming back and presumably seeing that the situation has changed, not changing his vote) is worth noting?

P.S. Sorry about editing without a "<snip>".

[BunnyGo]

I was not suggesting anyone else should answer worcej's (or Bo's) specific question on my behalf, I was making the point to Bo that no one else was going to pushback on worcej's vote.

It took me a minute to figure out what you were saying in your post. Since you edited out the question I posed to Bo, I'll ask it of you also, Bunny: do you think worecej's behavior (anchoring a vote, coming back and presumably seeing that the situation has changed, not changing his vote) is worth noting?

I think anchoring a vote D1 is a "whatever" move. It's annoying, but probably NAI. I think not knowing when the day ends in the same post that you insist you know when the day ends is a little weirder. I think his posts have had near zero content per post; and that's the most worrying.

I'm not complaining about the initial vote. That's not a problem. The problem is letting it sit even when there are better places to put it later. It smacks of trying to see what you can get away with (not even getting away with a mislynch, just getting away with not doing anything to draw attention, not doing anything that's helpful VCA later, etc).

Yeah, it's not great. I stand by "annoying". Maybe it even rises to the level of EMC annoying because it gives us nothing to go on when we finally have some data to draw connections. But that by itself is NAI (I think).

[damo666]

My next 5 most likely town are brainbomb, bo_sox, damo, Fluminator, and Foxcastle. As a result, my guess is that the 4 scum are in the following:

BunnyGo, Chaqa, emc, Pjandy, sulit, Temasek, Vecna, worcej

I strongly doubt ALL scum are in that list. I also strongly doubt that list is all town. Averaging people's opinions just doesn't work like that man.

The probability there are all 4 scum in any arbitrary group of 8 is about 1.8%.
The chance of no scum is about 13 in a million.

We can be confident therefore the above list contains at least 1 scum and very likely either 2 or 3.

@Bunny please check my arithmetic, back of envelope the morning after St Payrock's day so may be unreliable.

[BunnyGo]

@Fox. While you and I agree that there are better places to put it, has Worcej suggested he things there are any? I don't recall seeing a post where he says so.

[damo666]

Payrock lol. Patrick.

[damo666]

My suspects in the 'Bozo 8' in order would be

Tem
Worcej
Vecna
EMC

[BunnyGo]

My next 5 most likely town are brainbomb, bo_sox, damo, Fluminator, and Foxcastle. As a result, my guess is that the 4 scum are in the following:

BunnyGo, Chaqa, emc, Pjandy, sulit, Temasek, Vecna, worcej

I strongly doubt ALL scum are in that list. I also strongly doubt that list is all town. Averaging people's opinions just doesn't work like that man.

The probability there are all 4 scum in any arbitrary group of 8 is about 1.8%.
The chance of no scum is about 13 in a million.

We can be confident therefore the above list contains at least 1 scum and very likely either 2 or 3.

@Bunny please check my arithmetic, back of envelope the morning after St Payrock's day so may be unreliable.

We have 19 choose 8 number of choices of a group of 8 players. This is about 75k.

If we force the 4 scum to be in the group, then there are 15 choose 4 such collections of 8 players. which is about 1300.

Dividing gives 1.8%

Having 0 scum in the collection is 15 choose 8 which is 6435, giving 8.5%.

So having 1, 2, or 3 scum is a 90% proposition.

[Foxcastle]

@Fox. While you and I agree that there are better places to put it, has Worcej suggested he things there are any? I don't recall seeing a post where he says so.

And you don't find that to be a problem from a veteran player like Worcej?

[Jamiet99uk]

Nah, im just not feeling like playing mafia atm. Have more fun stuff to spent my free time on.

At the same time its that little feeling of guilt for not participating and potentially getting mislynched over it.

Why did you sign up?

You should request a sub if you don't want to play.

[Jamiet99uk]

Prick.

[BunnyGo]

@Fox. While you and I agree that there are better places to put it, has Worcej suggested he things there are any? I don't recall seeing a post where he says so.

And you don't find that to be a problem from a veteran player like Worcej?

Yes. THAT'S the part I find disturbing. The fact his posts have near 0 content (there's some, but it's sprinkled like a spice--just enough to give a taste that he's doing something, but it's like he never left the joke phase). This is the main reason I'm voting on him. The other issues you raised are relevant, but not by themselves alignment indicative.

[BunnyGo]

@Fox for comparison, the following players have also had at most 1 vote:

Baiki, Bozo, bo_sox, Chaq, EMC, kgray, PjAndy, Rdr, Sulit, Vecna, Worcej, Xorxes

Now, there is surely at least 1 or 2 scum in here. Several of these players are different than your complain about worcej because they gave compelling reasons for their vote (bozo, rdr, kgray, xorxes). And I'm giving Andy a pass D1 as he's new and not as awesome as kgray.

The list then becomes:

Balki, bo_sox, Chaq, EMC, Sulit, Vecna, Worcej. 7 players, high odds of 1-3 scum there, but no reason any one of them is necessarily scum or not.

So like I said, Worcej not placing a real vote is not by itself damning. But the other of his actions around it are the added oomph.

I'm also trying to not zero in and become myopic and self reinforcing this game. Temasek is not on the above list, but he's looking pretty scummy for other reasons.

[Jamiet99uk]

EMC hasn't posted since page 10, and the 13 posts he made up to that point contain absolutely zero content.

He is scum again.

##VOTE EMC

[Jamiet99uk]

Seriously.

Town EMC is annoying because he doesn't vote until the last second, but at least usually has some things to say.

Scum EMC is cowardly and evasive on another level, and mostly engages with the flavour rather than trying to even appear to be hunting scum.

Look what we have here.

[rdrivera2005]

EMC hasn't posted since page 10, and the 13 posts he made up to that point contain absolutely zero content.

He is scum again.

##VOTE EMC

I don't want to lynch Fox today and bandwagoning Tem is just boring.

##vote Chaqa, he seems off