MAFIA 51 - LONDON BY GASLIGHT [HIDDEN]

[FlaviusAetius]

mafia Team B will be focused on trying to eliminate jack with their kill, and tom will be RBed as per usual

Again, here is the worse case if we lynch ND today:

D5: 9-3-1-1, lynch Jekyll
N5: 2 town NKed
D6: 6-3-1-1, lynch team 1 mafia
N6: 2 town NKed
D7: 4-3-1, lynch SK
N7: 1 town NKed
D8: 3-3
town loses

If we do not lynch the SK, as you say, it does not get any better.

Do you really think our best chance to win is to count on the SK and mafia targeting each other?

If we kill yavu or Bionic today and we assume the one we kill is moriarty, not town(aka the 'best case' scenario)

D5: 9-3-1, lynch last moriarty[NOT CERTAIN]
N5: 7-3-1, 2 town die(tom dies, likely)
D6: 7-3-1, we lynch mafia team B[NT CERTAIN]
N6: 5-2-1, 2 town die
D7: 5-2-1, we lynch SK?[NOT CERTAIN]
N7: 4-2-0, 1 town dies
D8: 3-2-0, LYLO [NOT CERTAIN]

If we kill Jekyll today

D5: 8-3-1-1, jekyll dies
N5: 8-2-0-1,(100% possible jack and a mafia member dies)
N5: 6-3-1-1,(not at all likely)
N5: 7-2-1-1,(possible)
N5: 7-3-0-1(possible jack dies, and not mafia)

[FlaviusAetius]

^I dont think its possible that mafia in N5, try to kill moriarty, possible though(remember the last morirarty is a female)
N5: 7-3-1-0, (1 mafia 1 town dies)

[FlaviusAetius]

If we kill jekyll, today, not yavu, the mafia risk losing the whole game for everyone, think of us like we have a bomb around ourselves right now

we can either decide to take it off
or we can walk with it on, i choose to walk with it on

[FlaviusAetius]

without the bomb, we lose this game with a singular mistake,
if we put it on, our risk is a lot lot less

[FlaviusAetius]

if yavu isnt the last morirarty member(or bionic) we lose.
if we cant keep killing the SK, and the rest of the mafia team, we lose.

[FlaviusAetius]

you want us to do all the solving for the mafia, i say, not today!
let the mafia do the heavy lifting, in my scenario, we have a lot more opportunity and a lot more wiggle room

[FlaviusAetius]

and imagine if we are wrong, and we dont kill the final moriarty member. do you realize that we lose 3 town tonight.
good luck with that one buddy

[FlaviusAetius]

we can do this, cmdr, bozo, vecna, purple, we have the power, exert it!!

[purplecow]

Emc isn't here... isn't Emc usually here by now?

[FlaviusAetius]

under bozo's scenario if everything goes perfect, we are in LYLO TWICE

[FlaviusAetius]

cmon bozo, you cant expect we can win all of that? In fact I know you don't, you see this scenario just as clear as I do. vote ND, please

[bozotheclown]

mafia Team B will be focused on trying to eliminate jack with their kill, and tom will be RBed as per usual

Again, here is the worse case if we lynch ND today:

D5: 9-3-1-1, lynch Jekyll
N5: 2 town NKed
D6: 6-3-1-1, lynch team 1 mafia
N6: 2 town NKed
D7: 4-3-1, lynch SK
N7: 1 town NKed
D8: 3-3
town loses

If we do not lynch the SK, as you say, it does not get any better.

Do you really think our best chance to win is to count on the SK and mafia targeting each other?

If we kill yavu or Bionic today and we assume the one we kill is moriarty, not town(aka the 'best case' scenario)

D5: 9-3-1, lynch last moriarty[NOT CERTAIN]
N5: 7-3-1, 2 town die(tom dies, likely)
D6: 7-3-1, we lynch mafia team B[NT CERTAIN]
N6: 5-2-1, 2 town die
D7: 5-2-1, we lynch SK?[NOT CERTAIN]
N7: 4-2-0, 1 town dies
D8: 3-2-0, LYLO [NOT CERTAIN]

If we kill Jekyll today

D5: 8-3-1-1, jekyll dies
N5: 8-2-0-1,(100% possible jack and a mafia member dies)
N5: 6-3-1-1,(not at all likely)
N5: 7-2-1-1,(possible)
N5: 7-3-0-1(possible jack dies, and not mafia)

That is a big assumption to say that if we lynch Jekyll today, there will be no town NKs tonight.

[FlaviusAetius]

lets make a deal, I will vote bionic, if ND's wagon can't get enough traction by 5 mintues to EoD, that leaves me with 5 mintues. If ND's wagon has the majority by 5 mintues to EoD, we stick on it, and we stick with the plan.
If it doesnt, I and you switch over to Bionic, he gains the lead, and that is that, we are on a course to assume perfectness

[FlaviusAetius]

I told you exactly why mafia are incentivized to do so. we arent going to prevent a jack win anymore, they have too. that means they can either let jack win, or have a chance at winning.
in your scenario you flip it with the honus being on us

[bozotheclown]

cmon bozo, you cant expect we can win all of that? In fact I know you don't, you see this scenario just as clear as I do. vote ND, please

As I said, lynching ND is not without benefit. I thought lynching Jekyll would have been a good idea D1 to prevent any Hyde NKs. However, at this point in the game, I do not think we can afford to lynch a town and pass up the chance to lynch a scum to get rid of Hyde.

[FlaviusAetius]

cmon bozo, you cant expect we can win all of that? In fact I know you don't, you see this scenario just as clear as I do. vote ND, please

As I said, lynching ND is not without benefit. I thought lynching Jekyll would have been a good idea D1 to prevent any Hyde NKs. However, at this point in the game, I do not think we can afford to lynch a town and pass up the chance to lynch a scum to get rid of Hyde.

and it was a good idea Day 1, Chaqa ruined that opportunity, its a good idea today too

[bozotheclown]

I told you exactly why mafia are incentivized to do so. we arent going to prevent a jack win anymore, they have too. that means they can either let jack win, or have a chance at winning.
in your scenario you flip it with the honus being on us

Even if that was our best chance of winning, we would have to differentiate between the remaining mafia and the SK and not lynch the SK. If the mafia think they know who the SK is, they could just try to get him lynched.

[ND]

Wow really behind how much longer do we have this phase ##call gm

[FlaviusAetius]

I told you exactly why mafia are incentivized to do so. we arent going to prevent a jack win anymore, they have too. that means they can either let jack win, or have a chance at winning.
in your scenario you flip it with the honus being on us

Even if that was our best chance of winning, we would have to differentiate between the remaining mafia and the SK and not lynch the SK. If the mafia think they know who the SK is, they could just try to get him lynched.

good point, but we already know who we are killing, no? yavu or bionic

[FlaviusAetius]

Wow really behind how much longer do we have this phase ##call gm

12 mintues, we are debating whether to kill you or not